A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

No bias there!

 

If only he could be as durable as Jordan Montgomery...

[Bellhorn04]

If only he could be as durable as Jordan Montgomery...

 

Not only that, but "when he’s on the mound, his results will vary from terrible to good with the body of work trending towards terrible"!

[kenmeister]

While everyone agrees SP is important, one has to wonder exactly how important.

 

In 2002, in a meaningless final game of the season, Tim Wakefield gave up 2 hits in the 6th inning, and both runners scored (one as an inherited runner with Bobby Howery on the mound). Those 2 runs raised Wakefield's seaon ERA from 2.70 to 2.81, pushing him behind Barry Zito (2.75) for 4th place in the AL.

 

Had Wakefield simply come out after 5 innings, the Red Sox would have had the starters who finished first (Pedro Martinez - 2.26), second (Derek Lowe - 2.58) and third (Wakefield - 2.70) in the AL in ERA. They also would have still missed the playoffs, finishing 10.5 game behind the Yankees for the AL East title and 6 games behind the eventual World Series Champion Angels for the Wild Card...

 

I am still to this day mystified by the 2002 Sox. It was all because of that horrible 10 game losing streak. Urbina had, I think, the majority of his blown saves during that stretch.

[moonslav59]

My interpretation here is that some posters imply that great players help teams get to the postseason, but don't make much of a difference once the tournament begins, and thus aren't really worth expensive longterm investments because they don't guarantee titles.

 

Good points, but I'm betting on the better teams.

[moonslav59]

Sale is certainly not written off. But you’re talking about a guy with tons of miles on his tread who had a shoulder injury that sapped his velocity then blew out his elbow. You don’t have a reliable indicator of what he’ll be. Severino had that lat strain, came back hitting 100 in the POs in 2019 and then blew out his elbow. I’m pretty sure he should come back with his velocity intact. But as I’ve said for both, they’re not options til the ASB and likely aren’t going to be at their best til September.

 

As far as the Sox offense, what am I underselling? Sox were 11th in baseball in runs scored per game last year. Now you’re losing Moreland from that equation and JBJ is a FA (he ended up having a good 2020 offensively). They’re a middle of the pack offense

 

You keep acting like Sale is 36 or something.

 

Also, when he came back, the first time, he put up some of his best numbers, especially with K's. After posting his highest K rate in 2018 (12.9), he was higher in 2018 (13.5) and even higher in 2019 (13.3).

 

You have also claimed he lost velocity and that it is hardly ever recovered. I provided the link on his velocity, that I'm not sure you ever looked at or responded to. Here it is again, and while it does show a slight drop from 2018 to 2019, his 2019 season was very similar to other years, especially, if you discount his first 3 starts after returning from the 2018 season.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/chris-sale/10603/graphs?pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2012&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

 

He missed a couple starts in 2018, then came back and K's 12 in 5 IP, but was sat down again. He came back for 4 more starts. His last 1-2 starts of 2018 were low, but he still K'd 15 batters in his last 8 IP of 2018- showing that maybe he can still strike people out with out 95+ mph heat. He hit over 95 many times in 2019, so I'm not sure why you feel Severino can return to greatness, but Sale will likely never regain his velocity or dominance.

 

Once he got past April 2019, he had these K /IP numbers:

10/6

14/8

17/7

10/5,1

5/6

10/6

12/9

10/7

10/6

8/5

10/6

 

5/5.2

7/4.2

 

12/6

10/6

7/5.1

4/3.2

13/8

12/6.2

 

Those last 19 starts:

 

186 Ks in 117.1 IP

 

That's about 6 1/3 IP per start and a 14.3 K/9 rate!

 

Please. Give the guy some credit.

 

 

"A ton of miles?" He's 31 and has led the league in IP, once. Since joining a rotation, he has pitched over 192 IP 4 times in 8 years.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You keep acting like Sale is 36 or something.

 

Also, when he came back, the first time, he put up some of his best numbers, especially with K's. After posting his highest K rate in 2018 (12.9), he was higher in 2018 (13.5) and even higher in 2019 (13.3).

 

You have also claimed he lost velocity and that it is hardly ever recovered. I provided the link on his velocity, that I'm not sure you ever looked at or responded to. Here it is again, and while it does show a slight drop from 2018 to 2019, his 2019 season was very similar to other years, especially, if you discount his first 3 starts after returning from the 2018 season.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/chris-sale/10603/graphs?pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2012&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

 

He missed a couple starts in 2018, then came back and K's 12 in 5 IP, but was sat down again. He came back for 4 more starts. His last 1-2 starts of 2018 were low, but he still K'd 15 batters in his last 8 IP of 2018- showing that maybe he can still strike people out with out 95+ mph heat. He hit over 95 many times in 2019, so I'm not sure why you feel Severino can return to greatness, but Sale will likely never regain his velocity or dominance.

 

Once he got past April 2019, he had these K /IP numbers:

10/6

14/8

17/7

10/5,1

5/6

10/6

12/9

10/7

10/6

8/5

10/6

 

5/5.2

7/4.2

 

12/6

10/6

7/5.1

4/3.2

13/8

12/6.2

 

Those last 19 starts:

 

186 Ks in 117.1 IP

 

That's about 6 1/3 IP per start and a 14.3 K/9 rate!

 

Please. Give the guy some credit.

 

 

"A ton of miles?" He's 31 and has led the league in IP, once. Since joining a rotation, he has pitched over 192 IP 4 times in 8 years.

 

Injured Sale, October '18: struck out the first two batters of the World Series... and struck out the last three batters of the World Series. In between, yelled and swore at teammates, who were afraid not to rally.

[moonslav59]

The rankings clearly assume future additions by the Yanks. As they stand, right now, they should not be top 5.

 

They clearly are not assuming the Sox make significant additions.

 

Be consistent: either rank the teams as they are right now, or not.

 

Injured Sale, October '18: struck out the first two batters of the World Series... and struck out the last three batters of the World Series. In between, yelled and swore at teammates, who were afraid not to rally.

 

I'd never bet against Sale. If anybody can comeback 100% from almost anything, it would be ...

 

Chris Freakin' Sale

 

[Bellhorn04]

I'd never bet against Sale. If anybody can comeback 100% from almost anything, it would be ...

 

Chris Freakin' Sale

 

 

Now that's the spirit!

[Kimmi]

If you cherry-pick the stretch from 2007 to 2020, you've got 6 times in 14 years that the #1 regular season team won the WS.

 

3 times it was us!

 

The playoffs are a crapshoot.

 

I was reading earlier that even the regular season of 162 games is relatively short in terms of the amount of information conveyed by the standings, and that it would take a regular season of 610 games for the MLB season standings to have as much significance as an NBA 82 game season. Eleven games in the postseason mean virtually nothing.

 

Analysts have tried endlessly, to no avail, to find a strategy or metric that correlates strongly to postseason success.

 

We should all embrace the randomness.

[moonslav59]

The rankings clearly assume future additions by the Yanks. As they stand, right now, they should not be top 5.

 

They clearly are not assuming the Sox make significant additions.

 

Be consistent: either rank the teams as they are right now, or not.

 

The playoffs are a crapshoot.

 

I was reading earlier that even the regular season of 162 games is relatively short in terms of the amount of information conveyed by the standings, and that it would take a regular season of 610 games for the MLB season standings to have as much significance as an NBA 82 game season. Eleven games in the postseason mean virtually nothing.

 

Analysts have tried endlessly, to no avail, to find a strategy or metric that correlates strongly to postseason success.

 

We should all embrace the randomness.

 

Surely, you don't think it's a literal crap shoot where every team has exactly the same chance of winning.

 

Yes, enough bottom seed teams have won it all to feel the chance of anyone winning is real, but the better teams win significantly more than lower seeds, especially the last 9 years.

[jacksonianmarch]

No bias there!

 

Montgomery had a single injury (TJS) which took him a long time to recover from. And Montgomery has started 11 games and had one relief appearance in the past two years. Eovaldi has started 21 games and had 11 relief appearances the last two years. Guess who’s WAR is higher? And one guy had TJS in that time, lol. Eovaldi also has the longer track record of frustration. Montgomery had a really good rookie campaign, was killing it prior to TJS in his sophomore year. Third year was almost entirely wrecked by recovery. Fourth year was last year, and while his ERA was high, his secondary indicators were bullish. He threw four big innings in the post season. He should have a full spring and be fully healthy. He’s a limited upside back end starter akin to Odorizzi, IMO. But that’s fine with a deep pen and a deep lineup. Eovaldi is on a team with no pen and an above average lineup. And Eovaldi always has an injury derail a year, always. He’s had one 30+ start year. One 27 start year. No year after that with more than 21 starts. A Max WAR of 2.3 for a season. Montgomery’s lone full season would have been a career high WAR for Nate!

[Noles_1335]

Only way Sale comes back close to being dominant is whether or not he got on the Barry Bonds workout plan! With the violent delivery and arm slot he will certainly protect that elbow and rely more on the FB now than ever! The guy needs to add some serious weight.... good weight to have more longevity! If that arm and shoulder goes unscathed for 2021 he “might” be Chris Freaking Sale in 2022!

[moonslav59]

The rankings clearly assume future additions by the Yanks. As they stand, right now, they should not be top 5.

 

They clearly are not assuming the Sox make significant additions.

 

Be consistent: either rank the teams as they are right now, or not.

 

Montgomery had a single injury (TJS) which took him a long time to recover from. And Montgomery has started 11 games and had one relief appearance in the past two years. Eovaldi has started 21 games and had 11 relief appearances the last two years. Guess who’s WAR is higher? And one guy had TJS in that time, lol. Eovaldi also has the longer track record of frustration. Montgomery had a really good rookie campaign, was killing it prior to TJS in his sophomore year. Third year was almost entirely wrecked by recovery. Fourth year was last year, and while his ERA was high, his secondary indicators were bullish. He threw four big innings in the post season. He should have a full spring and be fully healthy. He’s a limited upside back end starter akin to Odorizzi, IMO. But that’s fine with a deep pen and a deep lineup. Eovaldi is on a team with no pen and an above average lineup. And Eovaldi always has an injury derail a year, always. He’s had one 30+ start year. One 27 start year. No year after that with more than 21 starts. A Max WAR of 2.3 for a season. Montgomery’s lone full season would have been a career high WAR for Nate!

 

He's only had 29 starts or 155 IP in a season, once, and you criticize Eovaldi for "only" having 2 seasons with 27 or more starts. Yes, a much longer career, but can we wait to see if he ever does it again, before we anoint him a work horse?

 

Now, most starters have one really bad game each season, but it seems like Eovaldi has had an extra bad start each season from 2013-2015?

 

bWAR has Eovaldi with a 2.3 (2015) and a 2.1 season (2013). Yes, Montgomery had a 2.9 season his rookie year.

 

2013: 3 IP 9 ER (Take away & his ERA goes from 3.39 to 2.62)

2014: 4 IP 8 ER (Take away & his ERA goes from 4.37 to 4.09)

2015: .2 IP 8 ER (Take away & his ERA goes from 4.20 to 3.74)

 

Montgomery's worst game in his big year was 6 ER in 6 IP. If you took that away, his ERA would go from 3.88 to 3.62.

 

Of course, one could claim cherry-picking methodology, and the point would have merit, but Eovaldi had a very nice 3 year stretch from 2013 to 2015, and his stretch in 2018, including the playoffs was not only excellent, but it was a pretty large sample size, when compared to any Montgomery season but one.

 

Last 13 games of 2018 regular season (60 IP/21 ER) 3.15 ERA.

6 playoff games (4 as RP'er): (22.1 IP/4 ER) 1.61 ERA

 

Combine:

82.1 IP

25 ER

2.77 ERA

 

The guy can pitch very well for some extended periods of time.

 

He's certainly had many bad stretches and missed time. He's a huge question mark, but so is Montgomery.

 

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Montgomery had one full season, blew out his elbow season 2, recovered season 3 and then had a pandemic shortened season for season 4.

[moonslav59]

The rankings clearly assume future additions by the Yanks. As they stand, right now, they should not be top 5.

 

They clearly are not assuming the Sox make significant additions.

 

Be consistent: either rank the teams as they are right now, or not.

 

Only way Sale comes back close to being dominant is whether or not he got on the Barry Bonds workout plan! With the violent delivery and arm slot he will certainly protect that elbow and rely more on the FB now than ever! The guy needs to add some serious weight.... good weight to have more longevity! If that arm and shoulder goes unscathed for 2021 he “might” be Chris Freaking Sale in 2022!

 

"The only way?"

[moonslav59]

The rankings clearly assume future additions by the Yanks. As they stand, right now, they should not be top 5.

 

They clearly are not assuming the Sox make significant additions.

 

Be consistent: either rank the teams as they are right now, or not.

 

Montgomery had one full season, blew out his elbow season 2, recovered season 3 and then had a pandemic shortened season for season 4.

 

How many pitchers had one good season, even if it was their first and only one, and never turned out very good?

 

He's a question mark. A big one. So is Eovaldi.

 

If I had to choose one for just 2021, it's a close call.

[jacksonianmarch]

Montgomery outperformed Eovaldi by Fangraph’s WAR last year. He’s got the bigger career WAR. He’s younger. He’s my pick, clearly. We had Eovaldi. His maddening ways never left

[moonslav59]

The rankings clearly assume future additions by the Yanks. As they stand, right now, they should not be top 5.

 

They clearly are not assuming the Sox make significant additions.

 

Be consistent: either rank the teams as they are right now, or not.

 

Montgomery outperformed Eovaldi by Fangraph’s WAR last year. He’s got the bigger career WAR. He’s younger. He’s my pick, clearly. We had Eovaldi. His maddening ways never left

 

So, if career WAR is your choice of value, Sale is better than anyone on the Yanks. Erod Rocks, too.

 

You know there is more to judging value and projected value than career WAR and just fWAR from a shortened season.

 

I can see why you choose the 4 year fWAR sample, not 1, 2 or 3 of bWAR...

 

bWAR: 2020 Eovaldi 1.3/ Montgomery 0.1

bWAR: 2019-2020: Eovaldi 1.3/ Montgomer 0.0

bWAR: 2018-2020: Eovaldi 2.1/ Montgomer 0.5

 

 

Montgomery beats Eovaldi 2.9 to 2.1 from '17-'20 in bWAR.)

Edited January 7, 2021 by moonslav59

[Kimmi]

Surely, you don't think it's a literal crap shoot where every team has exactly the same chance of winning.

 

Yes, enough bottom seed teams have won it all to feel the chance of anyone winning is real, but the better teams win significantly more than lower seeds, especially the last 9 years.

 

Not every team has exactly the same chance of winning. Teams with better regular season records have a slightly better chance of winning. However, that better chance of winning is slight enough that I am comfortable with calling the playoffs a crapshoot.

[Bellhorn04]

Not every team has exactly the same chance of winning. Teams with better regular season records have a slightly better chance of winning. However, that better chance of winning is slight enough that I am comfortable with calling the playoffs a crapshoot.

 

The last 5 years have been pretty good for the 'non-crapshoot' side of the debate. And I'm including Washington because of their second half record. I think after best regular season record, that's the next thing that should be looked at. Maybe there's a trend in that direction for some reason?

[notin]

Montgomery outperformed Eovaldi by Fangraph’s WAR last year. He’s got the bigger career WAR. He’s younger. He’s my pick, clearly. We had Eovaldi. His maddening ways never left

 

He did?

 

Fangraphs had 0.9 fWAR for Montgomery and 0.9 fWAR for Eovaldi. Why is Montgomery's 0.9 better? (B-R gives Eovaldi 1.3 bWAR and Montgomery 0.1 bWAR. Much, much bigger gap.)

 

Eovaldi's career fWAR is 12.9 and Montgomery's is 4.0 So... not sure how Montgomery has the higher career WAR either. Unless you meant he has the higher career high fWAR. In which case, still wrong, as Eovaldi's is 3.3 vs Montgomery's best of 2.6.

 

You are correct that Montgomery 2 years and 10 months younger. So, one right, I guess. But that is a pretty small gap considering he has 730 less IP. He is NOT making that total up in 3 years...

[moonslav59]

The rankings clearly assume future additions by the Yanks. As they stand, right now, they should not be top 5.

 

They clearly are not assuming the Sox make significant additions.

 

Be consistent: either rank the teams as they are right now, or not.

 

Not every team has exactly the same chance of winning. Teams with better regular season records have a slightly better chance of winning. However, that better chance of winning is slight enough that I am comfortable with calling the playoffs a crapshoot.

 

So, if you divide the playoff teams into two groups: the better half vs the worse half, you'd call a 55% to 45% split a "crap shoot?"

 

How about a 60-40 split?

 

A 2 to 1 split?

 

Well, 78% have won the WS in the last 9 years. Maybe it used to be somewhat random, but it is not anymore.

 

Even more convincing, about the last 9 seasons, 4 of the 9 WS winners were the best record teams. Total randomness would predict about 1.

 

Okay,maybe you can claim "small sample size." Something I have used often, but times have changed. The rich have gotten obscenely richer and better.

[moonslav59]

The rankings clearly assume future additions by the Yanks. As they stand, right now, they should not be top 5.

 

They clearly are not assuming the Sox make significant additions.

 

Be consistent: either rank the teams as they are right now, or not.

 

The last 5 years have been pretty good for the 'non-crapshoot' side of the debate. And I'm including Washington because of their second half record. I think after best regular season record, that's the next thing that should be looked at. Maybe there's a trend in that direction for some reason?

 

I see the exact opposite position over the past 5 years.

 

50 teams made the playoffs, and only 5 were best record teams, yet the best record team won 60% of them (3 of 5). You'd expect zero or one, if it was totally random.

[dgalehouse]

I see the exact opposite position over the past 5 years.

 

50 teams made the playoffs, and only 5 were best record teams, yet the best record team won 60% of them (3 of 5). You'd expect zero or one, if it was totally random.

In any sports event , the better team or athlete is more likely to win. That is why we have betting odds and point spreads. In baseball , there are more variables, most notably pitching performance, so the chances of an upset are greater.

Still, it is not a total crapshoot. The better team is still more likely to prevail.

[moonslav59]

The rankings clearly assume future additions by the Yanks. As they stand, right now, they should not be top 5.

 

They clearly are not assuming the Sox make significant additions.

 

Be consistent: either rank the teams as they are right now, or not.

 

In any sports event , the better team or athlete is more likely to win. That is why we have betting odds and point spreads. In baseball , there are more variables, most notably pitching performance, so the chances of an upset are greater.

Still, it is not a total crapshoot. The better team is still more likely to prevail.

 

Yes, and sometimes the odds-makers make the much better team the prohibitive favorite to win a series- sometimes higher odds than many NBA series.

 

Just because the worst record team wins a WS every now and then, doesn't make the odds random. If it was random, Vegas would be losing millions to people betting the dog every game.

[moonslav59]

The AL has been weakened by trades, so far- at least in terms of 2021 team skill levels, so if the Sox sign a few good players, we may leap frog quite a few teams in the on-paper rankings.

[Bellhorn04]

Gerrit Cole may be in a sticky situation. See New York Post for details.

[mvp 78]

Gerrit Cole may be in a sticky situation. See New York Post for details.

 

It makes Bauer's comments and approach to sticky substances last year all the more hilarious. He was just doing it to troll Gerrit.

[Bellhorn04]

It makes Bauer's comments and approach to sticky substances last year all the more hilarious. He was just doing it to troll Gerrit.

 

Think this could bite Bauer in the ass too?

[moonslav59]

MLBTR-

 

While the Red Sox were among the teams that liked Sugano, they are “uninterested” in offering any pitcher a four-year deal this winter, writes Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. They are, however, willing to offer two-year or three-year terms to certain hurlers. As Speier writes, that dovetails nicely with the team’s ongoing Jake Odorizzi pursuit. Arguably the second-best free agent starter remaining on the market, Odorizzi is expected to land a three-year deal in the $36MM — $42MM range.