A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[moonslav59]

Why doesn't Cincy just fold?

 

I can see dumping salary, but trading Castillo is just giving up on the now and the future.

 

He's got 3 arb years left.

[notin]

Any deal like that, anyway: arguably the Red Sox two best position players, plus two more projected regulars -- that's already way more than Dombro traded for Chris Sale, who had earned 30.1 WAR through age 27. Castillo is good, but through the same age only has 9.1 WAR so far.

 

Despite numerical values that a website assigns, there are also practicalities that factor into decisions made by humans. It's why I was sure Bloom would insist on at least getting Verdugo back for Betts (when the site and several posters were saying, "No way"). The Reds should shoot high, but they'd be lucky to get, say Bogaerts and Dalbec, with maybe a minor league arm or two that can throw hard.

 

No GMs are giving up four everyday players for one guy who pitches every five days.

 

Actually the site liked Verdugo as a potential swap for Betts. Now some of the talking heads were insisting it be May and Lux, which the site did not like.

 

Castillo will be costly, but part of the reason he might net more than Sale could be because Sale had a guaranteed $39million for his last 3 seasons. Castillo is first time arb eligible this year and might make half of that before reaching free agency...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Actually the site liked Verdugo as a potential swap for Betts. Now some of the talking heads were insisting it be May and Lux, which the site did not like.

 

Castillo will be costly, but part of the reason he might net more than Sale could be because Sale had a guaranteed $39million for his last 3 seasons. Castillo is first time arb eligible this year and might make half of that before reaching free agency...

 

It's a fair point, but I also remember that 39M for 3 is part of what made Sale such a hot commodity at the time: team control at a then-bargain rate.

 

To Moon's point -- some (most) of us complain about moves the Red Sox make or don't make, but how much must it suck to be a diehard Reds' fan right now? They just had one of the top MLB rotations, guys in their primes, but because of current economics (and a market that may never recover), they can't sign their Cy Young and are willing to trade their other two aces... Can they ever afford to open a window again?

[notin]

It's a fair point, but I also remember that 39M for 3 is part of what made Sale such a hot commodity at the time: team control at a then-bargain rate.

 

It was a bargain rate. And Castillo’s is potentially an even greater bargain...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It was a bargain rate. And Castillo’s is potentially an even greater bargain...

 

And yet, MLB.com today poses a Bogaerts trade to Philly centered around a minor league pitcher -- Dombro's #4 prospect.

 

My first thought: seriously, is that the best you can do (as in, you professional writers who supposedly know the industry)? My second: is, uhhhh... is that the best we can do?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It was a bargain rate. And Castillo’s is potentially an even greater bargain...

 

I like Castillo and the Sox need Castillo. However, his 9 career WAR maybe doesn't justify investing more in talent than Sox trades for the better guarantees of Sale (30 WAR) or Pedro Martinez, who had 20 WAR through age 25.

[jacksonianmarch]

Castillo is different from Sale, for sure. But he is also coming into his own. 4.1WAR in 2019 hid a walk spike and a bit of a lucky BABIP. His 2020, abbreviated as it might have been, really locked in on a drop in walks, homers, rise in K's and even showed an unlucky .329BABIP. The Reds would be better off dealing him now. If he reverts to his very productive but not ace-like 2019, then his value drops. Teams are going to be willing to pay a premium for the hope that 2020 is a predictor of things to come

[moonslav59]

Castillo is different from Sale, for sure. But he is also coming into his own. 4.1WAR in 2019 hid a walk spike and a bit of a lucky BABIP. His 2020, abbreviated as it might have been, really locked in on a drop in walks, homers, rise in K's and even showed an unlucky .329BABIP. The Reds would be better off dealing him now. If he reverts to his very productive but not ace-like 2019, then his value drops. Teams are going to be willing to pay a premium for the hope that 2020 is a predictor of things to come

 

And, the 3 arb year contracts look better than Sale's contract at the time of his trade.

[notin]

I like Castillo and the Sox need Castillo. However, his 9 career WAR maybe doesn't justify investing more in talent than Sox trades for the better guarantees of Sale (30 WAR) or Pedro Martinez, who had 20 WAR through age 25.

 

The only way the Sox get Castillo is if they include something along the lines of Downs and Casas and also take back the contracts of Moustakas, Castellanos and Akiyama. And even then it’s no guarantee. Which is sad because the Sox could actually use all of those players...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And, the 3 arb year contracts look better than Sale's contract at the time of his trade.

 

Again, depends on your definition of "better" or "value". I'd take the guy who was a top 6 Cy Young vote getter and All-Star for five straight years at a bargain market rate over a guy who made one All-Star team so far.

Edited December 21, 2020 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[notin]

Again, depends on your definition of "better" or "value". I'd take the guy who was a top 6 Cy Young vote getter and All-Star for five straight years at a bargain market rate over a guy who made one All-Star team so far.

 

Not every team has the financial luxury of the Red Sox...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Not every team has the financial luxury of the Red Sox...

 

All the more reason to strike this winter, when the Reset Sox can really outbid and outspend those hurting mid-market clubs... instead of acting like one. Bloom may just be very, painstakingly deliberate... but wonder what a young Epstein would've done at the helm in this kind of opportunity (assuming the curse was broken by someone else, and Theo was just getting his first chance at assemblage).

[dgalehouse]

How is it that folks who lambasted Dombrowski for trading prospects for established pitchers , now want Bloom to trade prospects for established pitchers ? Now , I'm no " expert " and I never look at sites like baseball trade values etc . , but that does seem a bit strange to me.

[Bellhorn04]

How is it that folks who lambasted Dombrowski for trading prospects for established pitchers , now want Bloom to trade prospects for established pitchers ? Now , I'm no " expert " and I never look at sites like baseball trade values etc . , but that does seem a bit strange to me.

 

The 'narrative', as some like to call it, is that DD went overboard - traded too many prospects in total, cleaned out the cupboard altogether. (And I'm not saying I agree.)

[Bellhorn04]

All the more reason to strike this winter, when the Reset Sox can really outbid and outspend those hurting mid-market clubs... instead of acting like one. Bloom may just be very, painstakingly deliberate... but wonder what a young Epstein would've done at the helm in this kind of opportunity (assuming the curse was broken by someone else, and Theo was just getting his first chance at assemblage).

 

This is an offseason like no other. Everyone is moving like snails crawling uphill through molasses in January.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

This is an offseason like no other. Everyone is moving like snails crawling uphill through molasses in January.

 

My legs feel that way from too much sitting; the winter of our disconnect. But ah, the days when Epstein or Dombrowski would target someone in the autumn, talk turkey, then outbid themselves to make things happen.

 

For the record, the only Dombro deal I was really against at the time, besides the Price contract, was Pomeranz for Anderson Espinoza (but only because from what I read, the guy was supposed to be the next Pedro). He isn't even the first Anderson Espinoza to make Double A.

[notin]

How is it that folks who lambasted Dombrowski for trading prospects for established pitchers , now want Bloom to trade prospects for established pitchers ? Now , I'm no " expert " and I never look at sites like baseball trade values etc . , but that does seem a bit strange to me.

 

Actually no one is saying Bloom should trde prospects for pitchers, but they are saying what it would take. And there is a difference between suggesting which young playes/prospects areredundant or expendable vs just flat out trading every single prospect in the farm system.

 

And I only ripped one DD trade (Kimbrel) and really did not like his approach to signing free agents to mega-contracts. I liked the Sale trade and still do. And I even liked the Thornburg and Carson Smith trades, despite neither working out, as that latter part was something DD was unaware of at the time. (I actually ripped Cherington for NOT trading prospects multiple times.)

[notin]

My legs feel that way from too much sitting; the winter of our disconnect. But ah, the days when Epstein or Dombrowski would target someone in the autumn, talk turkey, then outbid themselves to make things happen.

 

For the record, the only Dombro deal I was really against at the time, besides the Price contract, was Pomeranz for Anderson Espinoza (but only because from what I read, the guy was supposed to be the next Pedro). He isn't even the first Anderson Espinoza to make Double A.

 

My DD complaints were the Price contract and the Kimbrel trade. I was a bit hesitant with the Espinoza trade as well as the Kinsler and Nunez deals. But not so much as to hold them against the guy...

[moonslav59]

Again, depends on your definition of "better" or "value". I'd take the guy who was a top 6 Cy Young vote getter and All-Star for five straight years at a bargain market rate over a guy who made one All-Star team so far.

 

The contract cost is better.

 

I would not say Castillo is better than...

 

Chris Freakin' Sale!

 

at the time of his trade.

[moonslav59]

How is it that folks who lambasted Dombrowski for trading prospects for established pitchers , now want Bloom to trade prospects for established pitchers ? Now , I'm no " expert " and I never look at sites like baseball trade values etc . , but that does seem a bit strange to me.

 

We're just saying that's what it would take- NOT to do it.

[moonslav59]

My DD complaints were the Price contract and the Kimbrel trade. I was a bit hesitant with the Espinoza trade as well as the Kinsler and Nunez deals. But not so much as to hold them against the guy...

 

I was firmly against the Kimbrel and Pompom deals. I thought the Price deal was needed and he was about as sure a bet as one could ever get.

 

The Kinsler, Nunez and Thornburg trades were nothing outlandish.

 

I loved the Sale deal.

 

The Eovaldi and Pierce trades worked like charms.

[moonslav59]

I updated the list to include every team but the Stankees...

 

Here are some salary dump players that we may or may not want or need, but who may help us get a quality player as part of the package. While some of the players have only one year left on their contracts, their GMs may be dying to dump them, and their contract will be gone from out ledger after just one season.

 

AL East

 

BAL

Cobb $15M ($14.3 Lux Tax) BTV Value: -11.6

Possible players we want:

SP Means 26.1

OF Santander 20.2

1B/OF Mountcastle 16.8

OF Mancini 14.4

LHP Scott 13.0

LHP Fry 7.3

 

TBR

Kiermaier $24M/2+opt ($8.9M Lux Tax) -9.7

Tsutsugo $7M/1 ($6M Lux Tax) -3.3

Possible players:

Closer: Anderson 23.8

SP: Yarbrough 13.0

SP: Fleming 11.7

RHP: Fairbanks 9.4

LHP: Beeks 5.8

OF: Margot 4.0

1B/3B: Brosseu 3.4

 

TOR

OF Grichuk $31M/1 ($10.4M Lux Tax) -12.6

SP Roark $12M/1 ($12M) -9.7

Possible players:

OF Hernandez 31.9 (probably not realistic)

OF/2B Gurriel 26.3

SP Thorton 6.1

LHP Kay 5.5

SP Stripling 3.2

 

AL Central

 

KC

Duffy $15.5M/1 ($13M) -9.0

OF Soler $8.1M ($8.1) +2.4

Possible players:

2B/OF Merrifield 36.9

SP Keller 19.2

RHP Barlow 13.7

1B/3B Dozier 6.4

SP Juniz 5.8

 

DET

SP Boyd ~$6.5M arb + 1 more arb 0.0 BTV

Possible players:

OF Reyes 16.8

OF Cameron 4.0

OF Jones 3.8

2B Goodrum 2.6

 

CLE

Carrasco $24M/2 + opt ($11.8M) +8.8

Possible players:

SP Quantrill 7.8

OF Luplow 6.1

LHP Allen 2.8

 

MN

3B Donaldson $73M/3 ($23M)-37.1

3B/1B Sano $25M/2 ($10M) -5.0

SP Pineda $10M/1 +2.3

Possible players:

OF Buxton 19.5

SP Dobnak 17.5

LHP Smeltzer 7.9

 

CWS

SP Keuchel $38M/2 ($18.3) -7.5

OF Eaton $7M/1 + opt ($8) -2.4

Possible players:

LHP Bummer 19.7

RHP Heuer 6.9

2B/SS Mendick 4.3

 

AL West

 

TX

2B Odor $24.7M/2 + opt ($8.3) -25.9

SS/2B Andrus $28.5M/2 +opt ($15) -16.9

SP Lyles $8M/1 ($8) -8.0

OF Dahl $2.7M/1 + 2 arbs -1.7

Possible players:

OF Gallo 23.9

RHP Leclerc 17.7

SP Allard 6.7

SP Palumbo 6.3

 

SEA

3B Seager $18.5M/1 + opt ($14.3) -6.9

SP Kikuchi $31M/2 ($14) -3.3

Possible players:

3B/OF Moore 12.3

C Murphy 8.9

SP Margevicius 3.8

SP Dunn 3.3

2B Long 2.2

 

OAK

DH/OF Davis $16.8M/1 ($16.8) -15.3

OF Piscotty $15M/2 + opt ($5.8M) -12.7

Possible players:

SP Manaea 10.9

2B/3B Neuse 3.5

 

HOU

SP Greinke $32.9M ($34.4) -18.6

RHP Pressley $8.8M + opt ($6.8) -2.4

1B Gurriel ~$10M (last arb) -2.2

Possible players:

SP Javier 14.4

OF/2B Straw 3.7

RHP Paredes 3.1

RHP James 2.0

 

LAA

OF Upton $52.7/2 ($21.2) -42.7

Possible players:

SP Canning 30.1

SP Sandoval 10.3

SP Heaney 9.6

SP Suarez 5.6

2B Rengifo 1.9

 

NL East

 

NYM

2B Cano $48M/2 ($24M) -40.5

RHP Familia $11.7M/1 ($10M)-13.0

RHP Betances -$6M/1 ($6M) 3.5

Possible players:

OF Nimmo 32.7

OF Conforto 26.8

SP Syndergaard 18.9

SP Peterson 11.1

 

ATL

OF Inciarte $8.7M/1 + opt ($8M) -9.4

LHP Smith $26M/2 +opt ($13,3) -8.4

Possible players:

3B/OF Riley 19.5

SP Wright 7.2

SP Wilson 6.7

LHP Minter 3.7

LHP Newcomb 0.9

 

PHI

LF McCutchen $20M/1 + opt ($16.7M)-18.0

2B Kingery $19M/3 +opt ($4M) -17.7

Possible players:

SP Eflin 19.3

RHP Abel 17.3

OH Hasely 6.2

SP Velasquez 5.6

LHP Romero 2.8

 

MIA

OF Dickerson $9.5M/1 ($8.9)-4.2

OF Brinson Pre-arb 0.2

Possible players:

SP Lopez 63.0

SP Hernandez 10.7

OF Harrison 10.1

SS/2B Rojas 7.5

OF Ramirez 3.4

LHP Bleier 3.0

 

NL Central

 

Cubs

OF Heyward $65M/3 ($23M) -55.3

Closer Kimbrel $16M/1 + opt ($14M) -10.8

SP Darvish $59M/3 ($21M) +21.0

Possible players:

2B Hoerner 30.1

OF Happ 28.9

1B Rizzo 18.9

SP Alzolay 6.4

LHP Wieck 5.4

3B/OF Bryant 5.3

RHP Wick 4.2

3B/2B Bote 3.3

 

MIL

OF Cain $35M/2 ($16M) -17.7

OF Garcia $11M/1 +opt ($10M) -7.8

Possible players:

SP Woodruff 130.9

SP Burnes 71.1

SS/2B Urias 26.6

LHP Hader 15.5

SP Houser 14.6

SP Lindblom 7.6

RHP Rasmussen 5.5

C Narvaez 4.6

OF Taylor 1.7

 

STL

1B Goldschmidt $101.3M/4 ($26M) -36.7

SP Mikolas $51M/3 ($17M)-27.7

OF Fowler $16.6M/1 ($16.5M) -17.0

3B/1B Carpenter $18.5M/1+ opt ($19.5M) -14.7

LHP Miller $12M/1-9.3

RHP Martinez $11.7M/1+Opt -5.8

C Heineman ).0

2B Moroff 0.0

Possible players:

SP Hudson 28.0

OF Bader 19.4

RHP Gallegos 14.2

OF O'Neill 8,3

RHP Reyes 5.5

OF Thomas 5.0

 

PIT

OF Polanco $11.6M/1 ($11.6) -13.5

1B Bell ~$6M arb + 3rd arb 0.0

2B Frasier ~$4M + 3rd arb +4.0

SP Taillon $2.3M + 3rd arb +20.3

SP Musgrove ~$4M + 3rd arb +36.4

Possible players:

C Stallings 8.4

2B Newman 5.6

 

CIN

1B Votto -85.9

2B Moustakas -19.6

OF Castellanos -17.6

SP Miley -4.1

OF Akiyama -3.4

LHP Biddle 0.0

RHP De Leon 0.0

RHP Romana 0.0

OF Smith Jr 0.0

Possible players:

SP Castillo 114.8

SP S Grar 35.9

SP Mahle 33.9

OF Senzel32.9

OF Winker 26.0

RHP Sims 9.8

SP Antone9.5

RHP Lorenzen 4.9

C Barnhart 2.4

 

NL West

 

LAD

OF Pollock $31M/2 + opt ($12M) -21.2

Closer Jansen $20M/1 ($16M) -14.8

RHP Kelly $8.3M + opt ($8.3M) -10.6

Possible players:

SP Urias 47.4

LHP Ferguson 9.4

C Barnes 6.9

 

SDP

1B Hosmer $81M/5 ($18M) -71.0

OF Myers $45M/2 + opt ($13.8M) -17.0

LHP Pomeranz $28M/3 ($8.5M) -3.5

Possible players:

SP Lamet 69.9

OF Grisham 40.2

C Campusano 30.1 (prospect)

SS/2B Croneworth 29.5

C/1B Nola 20.2

SP Morejon 12.0

C/OF Mejia 3.6

 

AZ

SP Bumgarner $79M/4 ($17M) -49.0

2B/SS Ahmed $26M/3 ($8.1M) -7.6

Possible players:

2B/OF Marte 61.4 $15M/2+ 2 options

SP Weaver 12.6

SP Smith 7.9

UT Locastro 5.7

 

SF

3B Longoria $43M/2 + opt ($11.2M) -41.5

SP Cueto $26M/1 + opt ($21.7M) -21.3

1B/C Posey $25.1M +opt ($18.6M) -9.6

SS Crawford $15.2M/1 ($12.5M) -6.6

1B Belt $17.2M/1 ($14.6M) -0.6

Possible players:

OF Yasrzemski 58.7

OF Slater 14.5

SP Webb 13.6

UT Flores 9.1

RHP Anderson 3.7

 

COL

3B Arenado $32.5M x 5 -43.7

OF Blackmon $52M/3 ($18M) -27.5

OF Desmond $8M/1 +opt ($14M) -10.0

Possible players:

SS/2B Rodgers 26.6

1B/2B McMahon 8.8

SP Freeland 8.1

SP Gray 6.7

SP Lambert 6.6

[jacksonianmarch]

It makes little sense for the sox to deal for a front line pitcher when their cupboard is pretty bare and the team in dire need of a rebuild. The sox are a year or two away from making a move like Castillo

[notin]

It makes little sense for the sox to deal for a front line pitcher when their cupboard is pretty bare and the team in dire need of a rebuild. The sox are a year or two away from making a move like Castillo

 

The only thing the Sox need is pitching. Really just a frontline pitcher and some relievers. The "bare cupboard" was still 11th in runs scored last year, and that was with virtually no contribution from Benintendi or Martinez.

 

Teams with money don't rebuild. "Rebuilding" is just a salesmanship way of saying "going cheap"...

[Bellhorn04]

The only thing the Sox need is pitching. Really just a frontline pitcher and some relievers. The "bare cupboard" was still 11th in runs scored last year, and that was with virtually no contribution from Benintendi or Martinez.

 

Teams with money don't rebuild. "Rebuilding" is just a salesmanship way of saying "going cheap"...

 

That's a good way to put it.

[moonslav59]

The only thing the Sox need is pitching. Really just a frontline pitcher and some relievers. The "bare cupboard" was still 11th in runs scored last year, and that was with virtually no contribution from Benintendi or Martinez.

 

Teams with money don't rebuild. "Rebuilding" is just a salesmanship way of saying "going cheap"...

 

I don't disagree, but are you for trading Downs, Casas, Duran, Chatham & Mata for Castillo, Castellenos & Moustakas?

 

Will we be a contender by trading our farm away- again?

[notin]

I don't disagree, but are you for trading Downs, Casas, Duran, Chatham & Mata for Castillo, Castellenos & Moustakas?

 

Will we be a contender by trading our farm away- again?

 

No. I said Castillo is likely out of play for the Sox. And because that’s probably what the neighborhood of the asking price...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

No. I said Castillo is likely out of play for the Sox. And because that’s probably what the neighborhood of the asking price...

 

Especially since the Reds already dumped Downs once before in the Puig trade. They're not taking him back for an ace pitcher. Yet, J.Downs (can't say his first name) would be the first prospect I'd part with. Casas is maybe the last.

[mvp 78]

All the more reason to strike this winter, when the Reset Sox can really outbid and outspend those hurting mid-market clubs... instead of acting like one. Bloom may just be very, painstakingly deliberate... but wonder what a young Epstein would've done at the helm in this kind of opportunity (assuming the curse was broken by someone else, and Theo was just getting his first chance at assemblage).

 

It's good to outbid other teams if the right players are on the market. This FA market is kinda s*****.

[mvp 78]

I don't disagree, but are you for trading Downs, Casas, Duran, Chatham & Mata for Castillo, Castellenos & Moustakas?

 

Will we be a contender by trading our farm away- again?

 

I think moving Mata right now is a pretty dumb play. It would make more sense to move Houck as his stock may never be higher.

 

I don't think this is the year to put all your chips in though.