A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

I'd much rather see Beni go than Duran. I'm hoping for a future in which our young controllable talent gives us an advantage. To me Chavis, Arauz and Beni could go. Dalbec would be hard to lose but with Casas in the wings still a thought. We could use another outfielder, whether from trade, FA or from below. Still, we need to do something for pitching and that remains a priority. I like Cora's view that the team needs to play faster so believe they need players with that capability.

 

Once again, the idea is to give up something good. A struggling Benintendi is not on the wish list of any other team.

 

If you want to hold Duran and prefer the Sox acquire some Alex Cobb-style wild card and hope it works out, then maybe 2021 will be less disappointing.

 

And I’m not sure Duran is really the key to getting more pitching. But I do know the Sox will have to give up someone good that they prefer to keep...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don't know, I kind of liked Dalbec's .359 OBP in his first sample. He K's a lot but he'll take a walk, too. That can be a big difference-maker.

 

Fair point. He is a monster that some pitchers will want to avoid. And Dalbec's honest, since all his outcomes are true; we held a mini-celebration one game when he hit two singles.

[Bellhorn04]

Fair point. He is a monster that some pitchers will want to avoid. And Dalbec's honest, since all his outcomes are true; we held a mini-celebration one game when he hit two singles.

 

And he didn't ground into a single DP.

[Bellhorn04]

Once again, the idea is to give up something good. A struggling Benintendi is not on the wish list of any other team.

 

If you want to hold Duran and prefer the Sox acquire some Alex Cobb-style wild card and hope it works out, then maybe 2021 will be less disappointing.

 

And I’m not sure Duran is really the key to getting more pitching. But I do know the Sox will have to give up someone good that they prefer to keep...

 

Maybe the plan this offseason is to acquire as much pitching as possible with money.

 

Including by way of ones of those reverse salary dumps like Kiermaier.

[moonslav59]

With no Plan B, maybe Vazquez is no longer one of the Sox trade chips. So then, who is? Who is the Plan B? Who’s the fallback option?

 

Jeter Downs?

Bobby Dalbec? (His last name does sorta rhyme with “fallback.”)

 

I'd prefer combinations of lesser valued players like Chavis & Chatham, but I seriously doubt other GMs want them all that much, if at all. They'd be 40 man roster bubble players on several teams. There are guys like Ward & Groome, but neither are going to bring back the world, even when added to 2-3 others listed above.

 

That leaves Downs, Dalbec and Duran. I'd hesitate to add Mata to the list. Casas might be a guy we trade for someone with 3-4+ years of team control.

 

I really like Dalbec, but we can always sign Moreland. (So could other GMs, instead of trading for Dalbec.)

[moonslav59]

I'd much rather see Beni go than Duran. I'm hoping for a future in which our young controllable talent gives us an advantage. To me Chavis, Arauz and Beni could go. Dalbec would be hard to lose but with Casas in the wings still a thought. We could use another outfielder, whether from trade, FA or from below. Still, we need to do something for pitching and that remains a priority. I like Cora's view that the team needs to play faster so believe they need players with that capability.

 

I think everyone would rather keep Duran over Beni, but that also means other GMs would want Duran more than Beni, too, and they'd give back more to get him. Teams looking to cut salary may not even want Beni, if you gave him for free.

 

A Beni, Chavis & Arauz package may not get us anyone, let alone a player that fills a high need area as a plus player. That trade would also open a 2021 hole in the OF that is already a priority.

[notin]

Maybe the plan this offseason is to acquire as much pitching as possible with money.

 

Including by way of ones of those reverse salary dumps like Kiermaier.

 

That is possible and something Bloom has tried before.

 

I've mentioned various cndidates who not only have undesirable contracts, but also actually fill vacancies on the Sox roster (Kiermaier, Inciarte, Lorenzo Cain, Rougned Odor). And there are probably a few pitchers who could be on that list as well (Danny Duffy, Alex Cobb, Johnny Cueto) and maybe some who are marginal fits for the Sox (Dexter Fowler, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos, Charlie Blackmon).

 

And then there are other undesirable contracts we have avoided mentioning, but might be in play. Some fill vacancies on the Sox roster (Robinson Cano, Scott Kingery, Jeurys Familia) and some do not (Chris Davis, Ian Desmond, Elvis Andrus) but could be accommodated. Maybe. Does not mean they should be. I'd be OK with Andrus (2 yr /$28.5 mill) at 2B, and Desmond's deal (1 yr/$10mill ) actually is not so bad that either team could easily part with the right pitcher to make the contracts amenable. But Chris Davis and his 2 yrs $46mill? Pass. The O's don't have a pitcher to trade that makes me think taking that on is a good idea.

 

Which deals might be worth taking on to get a pitcher?

 

Right of the bat, I like Cain, Kiermaier and Inciarte. In the right deal, I could get behind Odor, Moustaks, Castellanos, Andrus, Desmond, Kingery, Familia... basically anyone but Cano, Cueto, Heyward, Davis and Charlie Blackmon (.987 home/.747 road) . Also, the unmentioned Nolan Arenado, whose deal (6yrs/$199mill left)and home road splits (.985/.793) could make for one of the worst acquisitions of all time. And I'm split on Upton, so that one will depend on the pitcher. (Hint: Pass. The Angels are buying pitching, not selling.)

 

And there are probably lots more. Maybe the Sox can just go get Zack Greinke? (OK that would feel counterproductive after just dealing David Price.)

 

So there are opportunities if Bloom can find other GMs in a financial bind and feels like being the one guy spending money...

Edited December 19, 2020 by notin

[moonslav59]

Maybe the plan this offseason is to acquire as much pitching as possible with money.

 

Including by way of ones of those reverse salary dumps like Kiermaier.

 

I think that has to be viewed as the best way for us to acquire quality players.

 

Rather than just sign JBJ, take on Kiermaier or Inciarte's contract, add some useful and valued talent like Duran or Dalbec (Chavis, Chatham Ward or Groome, if we can get away with it) and get a pitcher much cheaper than a FA. We fill two needs: CF and SP at much less financial cost than signing JBJ & Odorizzi. Then, with the "savings" we sign a couple very good RP'er and maybe a 2Bman and call it a winter.

[notin]

I think everyone would rather keep Duran over Beni, but that also means other GMs would want Duran more than Beni, too, and they'd give back more to get him. Teams looking to cut salary may not even want Beni, if you gave him for free.

 

A Beni, Chavis & Arauz package may not get us anyone, let alone a player that fills a high need area as a plus player. That trade would also open a 2021 hole in the OF that is already a priority.

 

Right now, there is nothing about Arauz that makes me think every organization does not already have one or two guys like him somewhere. Bear in mind that teams passed on him as Rule 5 player, back when he was literally free. I am not sure what Chavis brings to the table besides moderate power and a low salary. Sure, some teams will want him, but not for anything good. Maybe a decent bullpen arm? (And this is absolutely something the Sox need to consider.)

 

Hoping to deal the undesirables and improve the team is like trying to get rich by having a yard sale. Sure you might offload some stuff you don't want, but you are going to be disappointed if you thought anyone else would pay attractive sums for it...

[moonslav59]

That is possible and something Bloom has tried before.

 

I've mentioned various cndidates who not only have undesirable contracts, but also actually fill vacancies on the Sox roster (Kiermaier, Inciarte, Lorenzo Cain, Rougned Odor). And there are probably a few pitchers who could be on that list as well (Danny Duffy, Alex Cobb, Johnny Cueto) and maybe some who are marginal fits for the Sox (Dexter Fowler, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos, Charlie Blackmon

 

And then there are other undesirable contracts we have avoided mentioning, but might be in play. Some fill vacancies on the Sox roster (Robinson Cano, Scott Kingery, Jeurys Familia) and some do not (Chris Davis, Ian Desmond, Elvis Andrus) but could be accommodated. Maybe. (Does not mean they should be. I'd be OK with Andrus (2 yr /$28.5 mill) at 2B, and Desmond's deal (1 yr/$10mill ) actually is not so bad that either team could easily part with the right pitcher to make the contracts amenable. But Chris Davis and his 2 yrs $46mill? Pass. The O's don't have a pitcher to trade that makes me think taking that on is a good idea.

 

EHich deals might be worth taking on to get a pitcher?

 

right boof the bat, I like Cain, Kiermaier and Inciarte. In the right deal, I could get behind Odor, Moustaks, Castellanos, Andrus, Desmond, Blackmon, Kingery, Familia... basically anyone but Cano, Cueto, Davis and Charlie Blackmon (.987 home/.747 road) . Also, the unmentioned Nolan Arenado, whose deal (6yrs/$199mill left)and home road splits (.985/.793) could make for one of the worst acquisitions of all time. And I'm split on Upton, so that one will depend on the pitcher. (Hint: Pass. The Angels are buying pitching, not selling.)

 

And there are probably lots more. Maybe the Sox can just go get Zack Greinke? (OK that would feel counterproductive after just dealing David Price.)

 

So there are opportunities if Bloom can find other GMs in a financial bind and feels like being the one guy spending money...

 

I'm almost 100% certain a deal like this will be made- maybe even two: one for Kiemaier or Inciarte and one for Kingery or Odor.

 

I don't see Duffy being good enough to fill a nigh need slot. Familia still may have a good year or two in him.

 

I'm not sure Yarbrough, Fleming or Fairbanks are good enough to help us all that much, but maybe Anderson from TB can be gotten. Maybe we can pry 2 of these pitchers out of TB. Baz would be nice, but he's no help for 2021. Then, there is the $100,000 question of who,if anybody, the Rays want. I could see us getting Kiermaier, Fleming & Fairbanks. Is that a big help, even if we get them for Chavis & Chatham.

 

The Braves may not even want Dalbec, and even if they do, what pitcher would they give us for taking on Inciarte's contract?

 

I think getting Odor or Kingery may allow us to get better players and or give less in return.

 

I'd like to see one shoe drop. This winter is dragging.

[moonslav59]

Right now, there is nothing about Arauz that makes me think every organization does not already have one or two guys like him somewhere. Bear in mind that teams passed on him as Rule 5 player, back when he was literally free. I am not sure what Chavis brings to the table besides moderate power and a low salary. Sure, some teams will want him, but not for anything good. Maybe a decent bullpen arm? (And this is absolutely something the Sox need to consider.)

 

Hoping to deal the undesirables and improve the team is like trying to get rich by having a yard sale. Sure you might offload some stuff you don't want, but you are going to be disappointed if you thought anyone else would pay attractive sums for it...

 

The only "added value" to Arauz is that he no longer needs to stay on the 26 man roster. Since he's barely good enough or ready enough to make many 26 man rosters, I'm not sure the 2.1 value BTV gives him is even justifiable.

 

Chavis seems like he has the profile of dozens of players DFA'd every year, and some of them don't even K as much as he does. Quite frankly, I'm shocked by the 7.5 value BTV gives him, and that's one reason he's included in almost every suggested trade I make. If there's a GM out tehre that thinks that value is about right, we need to hunt him down and force a deal at gunpoint.

 

Chatham at 4.5 seems way over-rated. I doubt he can even make half the teams 40 man rosters.

 

Duran at 12.1 seems a little high, but even if that is his true value, if we end up getting Kiermaier or Inciarte, losing Duran is not going to leave a hole.

 

Mata at 12.4,Casas at 22.2 and Downs at 26.4 should only be included if we get a key player with 3+ years of team control at a reasonable salary (arb?)

 

Jimenez 8.5, Yorke 6.3, Jordan & Lugo at 6.0 might be wanted by teams looking 3-5 years down the road, but I'm also not for emptying the farm for some distant hope that we can win it all in 2021 or 2022.

 

Ward 4.5, Wong 4.3, Song 3.8 and Groome 3.7 maybe be add-ons that get a GM to take a deal, but only teams not looking to compete for quite a while.

[notin]

The only "added value" to Arauz is that he no longer needs to stay on the 26 man roster. Since he's barely good enough or ready enough to make many 26 man rosters, I'm not sure the 2.1 value BTV gives him is even justifiable.

 

Chavis seems like he has the profile of dozens of players DFA'd every year, and some of them don't even K as much as he does. Quite frankly, I'm shocked by the 7.5 value BTV gives him, and that's one reason he's included in almost every suggested trade I make. If there's a GM out tehre that thinks that value is about right, we need to hunt him down and force a deal at gunpoint.

 

Chatham at 4.5 seems way over-rated. I doubt he can even make half the teams 40 man rosters.

 

Duran at 12.1 seems a little high, but even if that is his true value, if we end up getting Kiermaier or Inciarte, losing Duran is not going to leave a hole.

 

Mata at 12.4,Casas at 22.2 and Downs at 26.4 should only be included if we get a key player with 3+ years of team control at a reasonable salary (arb?)

 

Jimenez 8.5, Yorke 6.3, Jordan & Lugo at 6.0 might be wanted by teams looking 3-5 years down the road, but I'm also not for emptying the farm for some distant hope that we can win it all in 2021 or 2022.

 

Ward 4.5, Wong 4.3, Song 3.8 and Groome 3.7 maybe be add-ons that get a GM to take a deal, but only teams not looking to compete for quite a while.

 

Even ignoring the BTV trade values, I just don't see any of them bringing back anything useful. Except Chavis might be worth a decent reliever.

 

The addition of Renfroe takes Chavis out of the LF mix. But if they add a LHH 1b, it might keep him in the 1B mix and make Dalbec tradable...

[moonslav59]

Even ignoring the BTV trade values, I just don't see any of them bringing back anything useful. Except Chavis might be worth a decent reliever.

 

The addition of Renfroe takes Chavis out of the LF mix. But if they add a LHH 1b, it might keep him in the 1B mix and make Dalbec tradable...

 

It depends on how much the player we get back is being paid. What seems like a reasonable contract, to us, may be a salary dump for the other team, and they'd gladly take Chatham or Arauz to rid themselves of a contract.

 

Or not.

[notin]

It depends on how much the player we get back is being paid. What seems like a reasonable contract, to us, may be a salary dump for the other team, and they'd gladly take Chatham or Arauz to rid themselves of a contract.

 

Or not.

 

There will definitely be teams dumping contracts. When Brad Hand can clear waivers at 1yr/$10 mill, there are clearly a lot of teams in cost cutting mode....

[moonslav59]

Here are some salary dump players that we may or may not want or need, but who may help us get a quality player as part of the package. While some of the players have only one year left on their contracts, their GMs may be dying to dump them, and their contract will be gone from out ledger after just one season.

 

AL East

 

BAL

Cobb $15M ($14.3 Lux Tax) BTV Value: -11.6

Possible players we want:

SP Means 26.1

OF Santander 20.2

1B/OF Mountcastle 16.8

OF Mancini 14.4

LHP Scott 13.0

LHP Fry 7.3

 

TBR

Kiermaier $24M/2+opt ($8.9M Lux Tax) -9.7

Tsutsugo $7M/1 ($6M Lux Tax) -3.3

Possible players:

Closer: Anderson 23.8

SP: Yarbrough 13.0

SP: Fleming 11.7

RHP: Fairbanks 9.4

LHP: Beeks 5.8

OF: Margot 4.0

1B/3B: Brosseu 3.4

 

TOR

OF Grichuk $31M/1 ($10.4M Lux Tax) -12.6

SP Roark $12M/1 ($12M) -9.7

Possible players:

OF Hernandez 31.9 (probably not realistic)

OF/2B Gurriel 26.3

SP Thorton 6.1

LHP Kay 5.5

SP Stripling 3.2

 

AL Central

 

KC

Duffy $15.5M/1 ($13M) -9.0

OF Soler $8.1M ($8.1) +2.4

Possible players:

2B/OF Merrifield 36.9

SP Keller 19.2

RHP Barlow 13.7

1B/3B Dozier 6.4

SP Juniz 5.8

 

DET

SP Boyd ~$6.5M arb + 1 more arb 0.0 BTV

Possible players:

OF Reyes 16.8

OF Cameron 4.0

OF Jones 3.8

2B Goodrum 2.6

 

CLE

Carrasco $24M/2 + opt ($11.8M) +8.8

Possible players:

SP Quantrill 7.8

OF Luplow 6.1

LHP Allen 2.8

 

MN

3B Donaldson $73M/3 ($23M)-37.1

3B/1B Sano $25M/2 ($10M) -5.0

SP Pineda $10M/1 +2.3

Possible players:

OF Buxton 19.5

SP Dobnak 17.5

LHP Smeltzer 7.9

 

CWS

SP Keuchel $38M/2 ($18.3) -7.5

OF Eaton $7M/1 + opt ($8) -2.4

Possible players:

LHP Bummer 19.7

RHP Heuer 6.9

2B/SS Mendick 4.3

 

AL West

 

TX

2B Odor $24.7M/2 + opt ($8.3) -25.9

SS/2B Andrus $28.5M/2 +opt ($15) -16.9

SP Lyles $8M/1 ($8) -8.0

OF Dahl $2.7M/1 + 2 arbs -1.7

Possible players:

OF Gallo 23.9

RHP Leclerc 17.7

SP Allard 6.7

SP Palumbo 6.3

 

SEA

3B Seager $18.5M/1 + opt ($14.3) -6.9

SP Kikuchi $31M/2 ($14) -3.3

Possible players:

3B/OF Moore 12.3

C Murphy 8.9

SP Margevicius 3.8

SP Dunn 3.3

2B Long 2.2

 

OAK

DH/OF Davis $16.8M/1 ($16.8) -15.3

OF Piscotty $15M/2 + opt ($5.8M) -12.7

Possible players:

SP Manaea 10.9

2B/3B Neuse 3.5

 

HOU

SP Greinke $32.9M ($34.4) -18.6

RHP Pressley $8.8M + opt ($6.8) -2.4

1B Gurriel ~$10M (last arb) -2.2

Possible players:

SP Javier 14.4

OF/2B Straw 3.7

RHP Paredes 3.1

RHP James 2.0

 

LAA

OF Upton $52.7/2 ($21.2) -42.7

Possible players:

SP Canning 30.1

SP Sandoval 10.3

SP Heaney 9.6

SP Suarez 5.6

2B Rengifo 1.9

 

NL East

 

NYM

2B Cano $48M/2 ($24M) -40.5

RHP Familia $11.7M/1 ($10M)-13.0

RHP Betances -$6M/1 ($6M) 3.5

Possible players:

OF Nimmo 32.7

OF Conforto 26.8

SP Syndergaard 18.9

SP Peterson 11.1

 

ATL

OF Inciarte $8.7M/1 + opt ($8M) -9.4

LHP Smith $26M/2 +opt ($13,3) -8.4

Possible players:

3B/OF Riley 19.5

SP Wright 7.2

SP Wilson 6.7

LHP Minter 3.7

LHP Newcomb 0.9

 

PHI

LF McCutchen $20M/1 + opt ($16.7M)-18.0

2B Kingery $19M/3 +opt ($4M) -17.7

Possible players:

SP Eflin 19.3

RHP Abel 17.3

OH Hasely 6.2

SP Velasquez 5.6

LHP Romero 2.8

 

MIA

OF Dickerson $9.5M/1 ($8.9)-4.2

OF Brinson Pre-arb 0.2

Possible players:

SP Lopez 63.0

SP Hernandez 10.7

OF Harrison 10.1

SS/2B Rojas 7.5

OF Ramirez 3.4

LHP Bleier 3.0

 

NL Central

 

Cubs

OF Heyward $65M/3 ($23M) -55.3

Closer Kimbrel $16M/1 + opt ($14M) -10.8

SP Darvish $59M/3 ($21M) +21.0

Possible players:

2B Hoerner 30.1

OF Happ 28.9

1B Rizzo 18.9

SP Alzolay 6.4

LHP Wieck 5.4

3B/OF Bryant 5.3

RHP Wick 4.2

3B/2B Bote 3.3

 

MIL

OF Cain $35M/2 ($16M) -17.7

OF Garcia $11M/1 +opt ($10M) -7.8

Possible players:

SP Woodruff 130.9

SP Burnes 71.1

SS/2B Urias 26.6

LHP Hader 15.5

SP Houser 14.6

SP Lindblom 7.6

RHP Rasmussen 5.5

C Narvaez 4.6

OF Taylor 1.7

 

STL

1B Goldschmidt $101.3M/4 ($26M) -36.7

SP Mikolas $51M/3 ($17M)-27.7

OF Fowler $16.6M/1 ($16.5M) -17.0

3B/1B Carpenter $18.5M/1+ opt ($19.5M) -14.7

LHP Miller $12M/1-9.3

RHP Martinez $11.7M/1+Opt -5.8

C Heineman ).0

2B Moroff 0.0

Possible players:

SP Hudson 28.0

OF Bader 19.4

RHP Gallegos 14.2

OF O'Neill 8,3

RHP Reyes 5.5

OF Thomas 5.0

 

PIT

OF Polanco $11.6M/1 ($11.6) -13.5

1B Bell ~$6M arb + 3rd arb 0.0

2B Frasier ~$4M + 3rd arb +4.0

SP Taillon $2.3M + 3rd arb +20.3

SP Musgrove ~$4M + 3rd arb +36.4

Possible players:

C Stallings 8.4

2B Newman 5.6

 

CIN

1B Votto -85.9

2B Moustakas -19.6

OF Castellanos -17.6

SP Miley -4.1

OF Akiyama -3.4

LHP Biddle 0.0

RHP De Leon 0.0

RHP Romana 0.0

OF Smith Jr 0.0

Possible players:

SP Castillo 114.8

SP S Grar 35.9

SP Mahle 33.9

OF Senzel32.9

OF Winker 26.0

RHP Sims 9.8

SP Antone9.5

RHP Lorenzen 4.9

C Barnhart 2.4

 

NL West

 

LAD

OF Pollock $31M/2 + opt ($12M) -21.2

Closer Jansen $20M/1 ($16M) -14.8

RHP Kelly $8.3M + opt ($8.3M) -10.6

Possible players:

SP Urias 47.4

LHP Ferguson 9.4

C Barnes 6.9

 

SDP

1B Hosmer $81M/5 ($18M) -71.0

OF Myers $45M/2 + opt ($13.8M) -17.0

LHP Pomeranz $28M/3 ($8.5M) -3.5

Possible players:

SP Lamet 69.9

OF Grisham 40.2

C Campusano 30.1 (prospect)

SS/2B Croneworth 29.5

C/1B Nola 20.2

SP Morejon 12.0

C/OF Mejia 3.6

 

AZ

SP Bumgarner $79M/4 ($17M) -49.0

2B/SS Ahmed $26M/3 ($8.1M) -7.6

Possible players:

2B/OF Marte 61.4 $15M/2+ 2 options

SP Weaver 12.6

SP Smith 7.9

UT Locastro 5.7

 

SF

3B Longoria $43M/2 + opt ($11.2M) -41.5

SP Cueto $26M/1 + opt ($21.7M) -21.3

1B/C Posey $25.1M +opt ($18.6M) -9.6

SS Crawford $15.2M/1 ($12.5M) -6.6

1B Belt $17.2M/1 ($14.6M) -0.6

Possible players:

OF Yasrzemski 58.7

OF Slater 14.5

SP Webb 13.6

UT Flores 9.1

RHP Anderson 3.7

 

COL

3B Arenado $32.5M x 5 -43.7

OF Blackmon $52M/3 ($18M) -27.5

OF Desmond $8M/1 +opt ($14M) -10.0

Possible players:

SS/2B Rodgers 26.6

1B/2B McMahon 8.8

SP Freeland 8.1

SP Gray 6.7

SP Lambert 6.6

 

 

Edited December 21, 2020 by moonslav59

[oldtimer]

Right now, there is nothing about Arauz that makes me think every organization does not already have one or two guys like him somewhere. Bear in mind that teams passed on him as Rule 5 player, back when he was literally free. I am not sure what Chavis brings to the table besides moderate power and a low salary. Sure, some teams will want him, but not for anything good. Maybe a decent bullpen arm? (And this is absolutely something the Sox need to consider.)

 

Hoping to deal the undesirables and improve the team is like trying to get rich by having a yard sale. Sure you might offload some stuff you don't want, but you are going to be disappointed if you thought anyone else would pay attractive sums for it...

 

Unloading guys we don't want or need makes sense to me. Why spend another year trying to make a silk purse out of a sow's ear. Do we really believe keeping underperformers is a good approach to building a consistently competitive team? I don't and instead think of replacing them with league average or better players now is the way to go.

[moonslav59]

Unloading guys we don't want or need makes sense to me. Why spend another year trying to make a silk purse out of a sow's ear. Do we really believe keeping underperformers is a good approach to building a consistently competitive team? I don't and instead think of replacing them with league average or better players now is the way to go.

 

True.

 

With players like Beni, it might not make sense to trade him, now, when his stock is as low as ever. He's got a bum rap, in some ways. His 2019 season was not all that bad, and young players often have a step back year as the approach prime.

 

Arouz is still very young. He was only on the roster due to rule 5. His trading value may not be high enough to help us get anything of need. His upside for us may be worth holding onto.

 

We'll have to give up some players other teams like to get anything back of value, except with salary dump type players.

 

The one area we may be able to cash in on is acquiring good players other teams can't afford, but whose contracts are not all that bad for us.

[harmony]

Casas, Mata, Song, Jiminez, Ward, Houck

An update on Noah Song:

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/country-comes-first-and-baseball-second-red-sox-prospect-noah-song

[moonslav59]

This deal was accepted by BTV:

 

Beni, Chavis, Ward & Arauz

 

for

 

Reyes, Boyd & Goodrum

[Bellhorn04]

With players like Beni, it might not make sense to trade him, now, when his stock is as low as ever. He's got a bum rap, in some ways. His 2019 season was not all that bad, and young players often have a step back year as the approach prime.

 

Exactly.

[oldtimer]

True.

 

With players like Beni, it might not make sense to trade him, now, when his stock is as low as ever. He's got a bum rap, in some ways. His 2019 season was not all that bad, and young players often have a step back year as the approach prime.

 

 

Or Beni might be on the decline for whatever reason. We keep him in the lineup for 3 months, while he struggles, which costs us a chance of making the playoffs. Either scenario is possible, but putting a better player in his place removes the negative possibility.

[Bellhorn04]

Or Beni might be on the decline for whatever reason. We keep him in the lineup for 3 months, while he struggles, which costs us a chance of making the playoffs. Either scenario is possible, but putting a better player in his place removes the negative possibility.

 

oldtimer, in 2019, his last full season, Benintendi had a .774 OPS, and a 100 OPS+, meaning he was exactly average.

 

Do you really think it's going to be an easy matter to replace him with a player who is guaranteed to be better than that?

 

And what if you trade him, getting back little, and he returns to his 2018 form?

 

You're really not thinking through the negative possibilities here, you're just assuming the positive ones.

[moonslav59]

We don't need to give Beni 3 months of negative performance. We will likely sign a CF'er or RF'er (move Verdugo to CF) and be ready, if Beni struggles.

 

We could also try a LF platoon with Renfroe.

 

I share oldtimer's concerns on Beni, but trading him, now, would likely not bring us much in return. His upside potential is worth more than what we'll get back. Yes, he seems to have downside potential, too, but since we won't get much by trading him, now, the loss will not be that great.

 

Also, it's not like our roster is so full, Beni is denying some promising young player a slot on the 26 or 40 man roster. Our OF roster depth is one of our weakest areas. Duran is NOT ML ready. Wilson? LOL.

 

Worst case scenario: he sucks out of the gate, we demote him to AAA, and if he continues to suck we cut him loose. Picking up a decent LF'er mid season is not usually all that costly.

[notin]

Or Beni might be on the decline for whatever reason. We keep him in the lineup for 3 months, while he struggles, which costs us a chance of making the playoffs. Either scenario is possible, but putting a better player in his place removes the negative possibility.

 

But why is Duran the "better player"?

 

Duran's OPS in AA ball was lower than any OPS in Benintendi's career in any MLB season in which he has had at least 60 plate appearances. And it was A LOT lower. .634 to .774. That's a full 140 points lower.

 

Just because Benintendi is a question doesn't make Duran the answer...

[moonslav59]

oldtimer, in 2019, his last full season, Benintendi had a .774 OPS, and a 100 OPS+, meaning he was exactly average.

 

Do you really think it's going to be an easy matter to replace him with a player who is guaranteed to be better than that?

 

 

We need pitching, pitching, pitching and a CF/RF'er. If we spend resources on a LF'er, too, it will likely mean we go lighter in higher need areas.

 

We have Renroe, already, and while everyone is talking platoon due to his great splits vs LHPs, he's actually somewhat decent vs RHPs, too. He could hold down a FT LF position for a while, if needed.

 

He averages 30 HRs per 650 PAs ve RHPs, and while his .717 career OPS v RHPs is not all that great, it's not awful. His last full season, 2019, he had a .733 OPS vs RHPs with a 650m pro-rated HR total of 39. (It was 53 HRs v LHPs!)

 

I think the best plan is to roll the dice in LF with a Beni-Renroe platoon. If Beni does well, maybe he squeezes Renroe into a 4th OF'er/back-up DH, PH slot. Renroe couldplay RF with Verdugo polaying CF'er, if we are having issues with whatever CF'er we add, this winter.

[moonslav59]

But why is Duran the "better player"?

 

Duran's OPS in AA ball was lower than any OPS in Benintendi's career in any MLB season in which he has had at least 60 plate appearances. And it was A LOT lower. .634 to .774. That's a full 140 points lower.

 

Just because Benintendi is a question doesn't make Duran the answer...

 

I'm surprised so many people see Duran as the answer to our 2021 OF needs. To me, he may become available by mid season, but he's still learning the OF position and how to hit. Some of his best offensive stretches were aided by an extremely high BAbip. Sure, his speed helped him get a lot of infield hits, and that could continue, but the kid has a lot to prove on offense before he's deemed ML ready.

 

Great speed is a big asset in CF, but I'm not sure how "plus" he is on defense, just yet, either.

 

I'm not down on the kid, but he has not shown he is ML ready for April, 2021. I don't even think it's close. Even a great spring training may not convince me.

 

I'm certainly not trading Beni with the idea of having Renfroe FT in LF and Duran FT in CF. The chances of something "negative" happening are higher than a "positive" result.

 

Even if Duran does prove he belongs in the bigs by opening day, and does well, keeping Beni still makes sense, since Renroe vs RHPs is a possible problem area.

 

Duran put up great numbers in A- ball at age 21, which is not all that young for that league. He had a .941 OPS but only 168 PAs. He did well when promoted to single A, but again, an .872 OPs in just 134 PAs is somewhat suspect. All total, his 2018 season, which go everyone all gah gah was just over 300 PAs, in total.

 

In 2019, he had 226 PAs at A+ ball and really shined. His .998 OPS certainly justified his promotion to AA at age 22. Many very good baseball minds think the only numbers that really count with prospects are at AA and higher levels. His .634 OPS in his largest sample size in the minors (352 PAs) was not encouraging. His .737 OPS in 101 PAs in the fall league did little to improve his outlook. He's only had 37 PAs in the PRWL, this year and has a .498 OPS, so far.

 

I'll be happy to be proven wrong on his readiness. I'm not saying that he'll never make it, but to me, it's pretty clear, he's not ML ready, now.

Edited December 20, 2020 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

We need pitching, pitching, pitching and a CF/RF'er. If we spend resources on a LF'er, too, it will likely mean we go lighter in higher need areas.

 

We have Renroe, already, and while everyone is talking platoon due to his great splits vs LHPs, he's actually somewhat decent vs RHPs, too. He could hold down a FT LF position for a while, if needed.

 

He averages 30 HRs per 650 PAs ve RHPs, and while his .717 career OPS v RHPs is not all that great, it's not awful. His last full season, 2019, he had a .733 OPS vs RHPs with a 650m pro-rated HR total of 39. (It was 53 HRs v LHPs!)

 

I think the best plan is to roll the dice in LF with a Beni-Renroe platoon. If Beni does well, maybe he squeezes Renroe into a 4th OF'er/back-up DH, PH slot. Renroe couldplay RF with Verdugo polaying CF'er, if we are having issues with whatever CF'er we add, this winter.

 

Yes, a Benintendi-Renfroe platoon should be just fine. And as you say there are bigger fish to fry.

[notin]

Per MLBTR, the Reds are listening to offers for Luis Castillo.

 

Per BTV, this would require something like Verdugo, Bogaerts, Downs and Dalbec.

 

I'm thinking any deal is extremely unlikely...

[moonslav59]

Per MLBTR, the Reds are listening to offers for Luis Castillo.

 

Per BTV, this would require something like Verdugo, Bogaerts, Downs and Dalbec.

 

I'm thinking any deal is extremely unlikely...

 

Although this trade was not accepted, the value exchange was exactly equal:

 

Downs, Casas, Chavis & Ward

 

for

 

Castillo, Castellanos, Moustakas, Miley & Akiyama

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Per MLBTR, the Reds are listening to offers for Luis Castillo.

 

Per BTV, this would require something like Verdugo, Bogaerts, Downs and Dalbec.

 

I'm thinking any deal is extremely unlikely...

 

Any deal like that, anyway: arguably the Red Sox two best position players, plus two more projected regulars -- that's already way more than Dombro traded for Chris Sale, who had earned 30.1 WAR through age 27. Castillo is good, but through the same age only has 9.1 WAR so far.

 

Despite numerical values that a website assigns, there are also practicalities that factor into decisions made by humans. It's why I was sure Bloom would insist on at least getting Verdugo back for Betts (when the site and several posters were saying, "No way"). The Reds should shoot high, but they'd be lucky to get, say Bogaerts and Dalbec, with maybe a minor league arm or two that can throw hard.

 

No GMs are giving up four everyday players for one guy who pitches every five days.