A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

Once we acquire a CF'er, and we will, Wilson should be DFA'd.

 

I've never been all that high on Chatham, but I think he has trade value.

 

To me, there are dozens of Mazzas, Brewers and Valdezes out there on the waiver wires almost constantly. In fact, all but Brewer were acquired that way and have done little to prove they are better than replacement level.

 

Wilson is 24 years old and put up reasonable numbers in the upper minors. He could possibly be dealt for a non-40 man minor leaguer in a deal with some of the more cost-conscious teams around MLB, much like Yoan Aybar was. That Wilson can potentially back up three outfield positions and while making the league minimum might be a selling point to a few teams around MLB. (Paging Mr. Cherington.)

[mvp 78]

Why assume that wasn't the "real" Valdez?

 

The real Valdez has a 27.00 ERA?

[notin]

Valdez got hit hard by the Jays in back to back appearances. Get rid of those (aberrations?) and his numbers look better.

 

He still had the advantage of pitching in a role where hitters never got a second look at him.

 

And Valdez' numbers might look better, but you just removed over 10% of his IP and are now evaluating him on only 26 IP. Bear in mind, in 2019, Valdez also pitched 16 innings for Texas and was basically the same pitcher. Low ERA, but WHIP over 1.6 and very high FIP. He is a guy whose peripherals tell you his ERA is a mirage...

[moonslav59]

The real Valdez has a 27.00 ERA?

 

LOL, no. I'm just saying, the real Valdez gets hit hard, at times, so taking those two outings away is not being true to who he really is.

[moonslav59]

He was fine as a reliever last year (3.51 xfip). They never should have tried him out in the starting role (5.15 xfip).

 

One, short season.

 

One 30 IP sample size.

 

I admit, I'd like to keep him around, just in case he's found something he's never had before, but I don't see many players on our roster, now, less promising than him. (Remember, he was not on my bottom 4 list, but I had Brice there, and it appears he's here for opening day.

[moonslav59]

Wilson is 24 years old and put up reasonable numbers in the upper minors. He could possibly be dealt for a non-40 man minor leaguer in a deal with some of the more cost-conscious teams around MLB, much like Yoan Aybar was. That Wilson can potentially back up three outfield positions and while making the league minimum might be a selling point to a few teams around MLB. (Paging Mr. Cherington.)

 

I guess it depends on management's opinion on Duran being ready for a call-up, in case of an OF injury.

 

I think we sign or trade for an CF'er AND a player that can play CF and 2B.

 

If that happens, trade Wilson.

[notin]

The real Valdez has a 27.00 ERA?

 

Well, so far the Real Valdez has 46 MLB IP, and his 3.5o ERA looks good, but his 4.75 FIP, his 9.3K/9 and 4.9BB/9 and his 1.62 WHIP tell me he is a very ordinary pitcher at best and his type can be found on the waiver wire pretty much all the time. His numbers in the upper minors were not horrible, but he did stay down there for a reason.

 

He is an AAAA pitcher. Nothing more. And right now his only selling point is he is one of the better AAAA pitchers on the Sox. Of course, that is an honor somewhat akin to having the fastest Kia Rio on your street...

[notin]

I guess it depends on management's opinion on Duran being ready for a call-up, in case of an OF injury.

 

I think we sign or trade for an CF'er AND a player that can play CF and 2B.

 

If that happens, trade Wilson.

 

My one guarantee for the Sox this off-season is Bloom signs Brad Miller. While Miller can fill the need for backup 1B, backup 2B, backup OF and a LHH bench bat, he cannot (or at the very least, should not) play CF. But he is a good hitter that Bloom has acquired before and does fit multiple needs, although admittedly they are all the easiest ones the team needs to fill....

[moonslav59]

Well, so far the Real Valdez has 46 MLB IP, and his 3.5o ERA looks good, but his 4.75 FIP, his 9.3K/9 and 4.9BB/9 and his 1.62 WHIP tell me he is a very ordinary pitcher at best and his type can be found on the waiver wire pretty much all the time. His numbers in the upper minors were not horrible, but he did stay down there for a reason.

 

He is an AAAA pitcher. Nothing more. And right now his only selling point is he is one of the better AAAA pitchers on the Sox. Of course, that is an honor somewhat akin to having the fastest Kia Rio on your street...

 

He doesn't seem like he has any "go to" pitch, either. It looked like he did well, this year, with smoke and mirrors- kinda like Walden in 2019.

 

Now, sometimes, smoke and mirror pitchers can sustain success. Valdez is not all that high on my list to DFA or trade, but he's close enough.

[moonslav59]

My one guarantee for the Sox this off-season is Bloom signs Brad Miller. While Miller can fill the need for backup 1B, backup 2B, backup OF and a LHH bench bat, he cannot (or at the very least, should not) play CF. But he is a good hitter that Bloom has acquired before and does fit multiple needs, although admittedly they are all the easiest ones the team needs to fill....

 

If he can play RF (move Verdugo to CF), I'm on board, but I'd like to see us get a CF'er and a 2Bman who can play CF (back up) without being a major defensive liability.

 

Didn't you mention another player who can play CF and 2B?

 

I'm not against Miller, but who else is there that can do this?

[notin]

If he can play RF (move Verdugo to CF), I'm on board, but I'd like to see us get a CF'er and a 2Bman who can play CF (back up) without being a major defensive liability.

 

Didn't you mention another player who can play CF and 2B?

 

I'm not against Miller, but who else is there that can do this?

 

Whit Merrifield has played both at an average level.

 

On the free agent market, there is Danny Santana and Dee Strange-Gordon. Santana's defensive metrics are the superior ones, but his numbers do not stand out. They are comparable to Merrifield. Neither Santana nor Strange-Gordon can be counted on to hit.

 

Delino DeShields and Billy Hamilton were both middle infielders in the minors. But they have combined for all of 3 innings in the infield in MLB...

[mvp 78]

If he can play RF (move Verdugo to CF), I'm on board, but I'd like to see us get a CF'er and a 2Bman who can play CF (back up) without being a major defensive liability.

 

Didn't you mention another player who can play CF and 2B?

 

I'm not against Miller, but who else is there that can do this?

 

I agree that I'd leave Verdugo in RF, sign a glove first CF and get a one year deal at 2b unless they are going long term for Wong or Kim.

[moonslav59]

Whit Merrifield has played both at an average level.

 

On the free agent market, there is Danny Santana and Dee Strange-Gordon. Santana's defensive metrics are the superior ones, but his numbers do not stand out. They are comparable to Merrifield. Neither Santana nor Strange-Gordon can be counted on to hit.

 

Delino DeShields and Billy Hamilton were both middle infielders in the minors. But they have combined for all of 3 innings in the infield in MLB...

 

Maybe I was thinking of Gordon.

 

I think Merrifield would be too costly.

 

I was hoping for a 2Bman better than the crew we have now, but if he's needed in CF, we'd have more than enough depth to cover his slot at 2B.

 

We could just sign 2 CF'ers- one a clear starter and the other a back-up, or maybe a platoon situation.

 

I'm not high on bringing Duran up, until he shows success at AAA and gets more CF experience under his belt. (Plus, don't use up a year of team control, in case he turns out to be a keeper.)

[moonslav59]

I agree that I'd leave Verdugo in RF, sign a glove first CF and get a one year deal at 2b unless they are going long term for Wong or Kim.

 

Unless we can get a good 2Bman for cheap, I'd rather roll the dice with what we have at 2B and address that area at the deadline, if we are in it.

 

All resources should be directed at pitching, pitching, CF and more pitching.

[notin]

I agree that I'd leave Verdugo in RF, sign a glove first CF and get a one year deal at 2b unless they are going long term for Wong or Kim.

 

JBJ is the headliner among glove-first CF.

 

The other options on the market include Jake Marisnick, Alberto Almora, and then some of the borderline starter types like Billy Hamilton and Jarrod Dyson.

 

The free agent market also includes 29yo Japanese import Harushi Nishikawa, who is listed as a CF on MLBTR, but his B-R page lists him as being a 2B, 1B and RF. Although he reportedly lacks the arms strength for RF and is better suited as a LF/CF type. Strong OBP (.379) in Japan, but weak SLG (.395). So he is more of a leadoff type, and he does have some SB on his resume (323 in 10 seasons). He is considered less of a player than fellow countryman Shogo Akiyama, who signed for 3 yrs/$21mill last year with Cincinnati and posted a .654 OPS in 183 plate appearances...

 

Maybe he could be moon's backup 2b/CF

[moonslav59]

JBJ is the headliner among glove-first CF.

 

The other options on the market include Jake Marisnick, Alberto Almora, and then some of the borderline starter types like Billy Hamilton and Jarrod Dyson.

 

The free agent market also includes 29yo Japanese import Harushi Nishikawa, who is listed as a CF on MLBTR, but his B-R page lists him as being a 2B, 1B and RF. Although he reportedly lacks the arms strength for RF and is better suited as a LF/CF type. Strong OBP (.379) in Japan, but weak SLG (.395). So he is more of a leadoff type, and he does have some SB on his resume (323 in 10 seasons). He is considered less of a player than fellow countryman Shogo Akiyama, who signed for 3 yrs/$21mill last year with Cincinnati and posted a .654 OPS in 183 plate appearances...

 

Maybe he could be moon's backup 2b/CF

 

I voted for Jake on the CF thread.

 

The more money we have for pitching- the better.

[Bellhorn04]

JBJ is the headliner among glove-first CF.

 

The other options on the market include Jake Marisnick, Alberto Almora, and then some of the borderline starter types like Billy Hamilton and Jarrod Dyson.

 

The free agent market also includes 29yo Japanese import Harushi Nishikawa, who is listed as a CF on MLBTR, but his B-R page lists him as being a 2B, 1B and RF. Although he reportedly lacks the arms strength for RF and is better suited as a LF/CF type. Strong OBP (.379) in Japan, but weak SLG (.395). So he is more of a leadoff type, and he does have some SB on his resume (323 in 10 seasons). He is considered less of a player than fellow countryman Shogo Akiyama, who signed for 3 yrs/$21mill last year with Cincinnati and posted a .654 OPS in 183 plate appearances...

 

Maybe he could be moon's backup 2b/CF

 

What happened to Pillar?

[moonslav59]

Steve Adams...

 

The Red Sox aren’t ruling out a reunion with Jackie Bradley Jr., as general manager Brian O’Halloran told reporters yesterday that the longtime Sox center fielder is “definitely on our radar” (link via MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith). Bradley has been linked to Toronto (who hasn’t?) and Houston thus far in the offseason, and the center fielder himself told former teammate Will Middlebrooks in a recent podcast appearance that he’s heard from multiple clubs in free agency. -MLBTR

[moonslav59]

What happened to Pillar?

 

Maybe his O>D?

[notin]

Unless we can get a good 2Bman for cheap, I'd rather roll the dice with what we have at 2B and address that area at the deadline, if we are in it.

 

All resources should be directed at pitching, pitching, CF and more pitching.

 

While it is easy to say all financial resources need to be dedicated to pitching, unless the Sox are talking to Bauer, there just isn't much out there. Paying Jake Odorizzi or Jose Quintana like an ace will not turn either into one. The Sox could (and IMO should) go heavy on bullpen spending and sign at least 2 from Robles, Bradley and Hand and shore up the very weak bullpen. But addressing the rotation with at least one starter is probably going to get something very mediocre unless the Sox go after Bauer. And the trade market has not seen any addition more compelling than Blake Snell or Sonny Gray, either of whom is likely to cost trade chips the Sox simply do not have.

 

Now the Sox could try to reduce the asking price from the Reds by including an underwater contract like Mike Moustakas or Nick Castellanos, but that doesn't mean Cincinnati will bite, especially if they view moving Gray as more than just a cost reduction. A similar strategy with the Rays is actually not very likely, especially since their only bad contract is Kiermaier, and he is very far from cancelling out the very high value of Snell and his contract.

 

Bloom turned the Rays into contenders by piecing together monster bullpens and watching his team implement strategies to maximize their usage. Granted, having Blake Snell pitch every fifth day certainly helped and is a luxury the Sox do not have now. But if you cannot build a great rotation, the next best thing is a great bullpen that shortens games to 5 or 6 innings for the opposition...

[notin]

What happened to Pillar?

 

I simply missed him. He is most definitely in play. But I still think Bradley is the better option...

[moonslav59]

While it is easy to say all financial resources need to be dedicated to pitching, unless the Sox are talking to Bauer, there just isn't much out there. Paying Jake Odorizzi or Jose Quintana like an ace will not turn either into one. The Sox could (and IMO should) go heavy on bullpen spending and sign at least 2 from Robles, Bradley and Hand and shore up the very weak bullpen. But addressing the rotation with at least one starter is probably going to get something very mediocre unless the Sox go after Bauer. And the trade market has not seen any addition more compelling than Blake Snell or Sonny Gray, either of whom is likely to cost trade chips the Sox simply do not have.

 

Now the Sox could try to reduce the asking price from the Reds by including an underwater contract like Mike Moustakas or Nick Castellanos, but that doesn't mean Cincinnati will bite, especially if they view moving Gray as more than just a cost reduction. A similar strategy with the Rays is actually not very likely, especially since their only bad contract is Kiermaier, and he is very far from cancelling out the very high value of Snell and his contract.

 

Bloom turned the Rays into contenders by piecing together monster bullpens and watching his team implement strategies to maximize their usage. Granted, having Blake Snell pitch every fifth day certainly helped and is a luxury the Sox do not have now. But if you cannot build a great rotation, the next best thing is a great bullpen that shortens games to 5 or 6 innings for the opposition...

 

I'd rather have Quintana or a second tier SP'ers or 2 decent pen arms than an expensive 2Bman.

 

It's not just expensive FA pitchers that are available.

[moonslav59]

I simply missed him. He is most definitely in play. But I still think Bradley is the better option...

 

If Pillar costs half of what JBJ gets and maybe 1-2 years not 2-4 years, I'll go with Pillar.

 

Pillar .784 career vs LHPs m(.678 v R) or Marisnik .711 v LHP (.638 v R)

plus

Brad Miller .772 vs RHPs (.619) or Dee Gordon .694 v RHP (.640 v R)

 

Might be a nice and cheaper platoon than just getting JBJ alone (.752 vs RHP/ .685 vs LHP)

[mvp 78]

https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1336734182148632589

[harmony]

I simply missed him. He is most definitely in play. But I still think Bradley is the better option...

[notin]

 

Lou Merloni never thinks anyone wants to play for the Sox...

[Bellhorn04]

Lou Merloni never thinks anyone wants to play for the Sox...

 

True LOL

[notin]

I'll throw out a very detailed prediction for the Sox 2021 MLB opening day roster, you know, for the heck of it.

 

C: Mike Zunino - signed as a free agent. Good defensive catcher who can hit 20 HRs and still struggle to maintain a .700 OPS. But Bloom has acquired him before.

1B Bobby Dalbec

2B Enrique Hernandez - Signed as a free agent. A very under-the-radar possibility that sneaks in. Other possibilities include the equally underrated Cesar Hernandez, along with Kolten Wong, and Jonathan Schoop. Marcus Semien remains a longshot with some very interesting potential.

3b Rafael Devers

SS Xander Bogaerts

LF Andrew Benintendi

CF Kevin Kiermaier. Acquired from Tampa in a deal for Christian Vazquez

RF Alex Verdugo

DH JD Martinez

 

SP: Eduardo Rodriguez

SP: Nathan Eovaldi

SP: Nick Pivetta

SP: Rick Porcello. Signed as a free agent.

SP: Shane Baz. Acquired with Kiermaier from Tampa for Vazquez. Shane McLanahan is also a possibility. (Neither trade works on BTV, as Vazquez' value is greater than either combination. But I am still predicting it or some variation.) Tanner Houck could also claim this spot, which is just a placeholder for Sale. All three pitchers (Houck, Baz, McLanahan) have minor league options.

 

CL: Brad Hand. Signed as a free agent

RP: Archie Bradley. Signed as a free agent

RP: Matt Barnes

RP: Ryan Brasier

RP: Darwinzon Hernandez

RP: Paul Campbell. Rule 5 selection from Tampa. Bloom drafted him out of Clemson.

RP: Austin Brice

RP: Phillips Valdez

 

BN Kevin Plawecki

BN: Michael Chavis

BN: Brad Miller. Signed as a free agent. Can play 2b, 1b, and corner OF and provides a LHH bench bat, and has a history with Bloom.

BN: Christian Arroyo

 

 

A bit of an obvious theme - Bloom acquiring players he knows. Of course, he has already done some of that by acquiring Christian Arroyo, Cesar Puello, Ryan Weber, and probably 1 or 2 others. (He also seems to like former Giants and Rockies.)

 

 

So how would this team fair? If you don't like it, blame Bloom, not me...

Edited December 10, 2020 by notin

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He doesn't seem like he has any "go to" pitch, either. It looked like he did well, this year, with smoke and mirrors- kinda like Walden in 2019.

 

Now, sometimes, smoke and mirror pitchers can sustain success. Valdez is not all that high on my list to DFA or trade, but he's close enough.

 

Then again, smoke and mirrors can kill you... it did in a few pitchers in the 1980s at least.

[Bellhorn04]

I'll throw out a very detailed prediction for the Sox 2021 MLB opening day roster, you know, for the heck of it.

 

C: Mike Zunino - signed as a free agent. Good defensive catcher who can hit 20 HRs and still struggle to maintain a .700 OPS. But Bloom has acquired him before.

1B Bobby Dalbec

2B Enrique Hernandez - Signed as a free agent. A very under-the-radar possibility that sneaks in. Other possibilities include the equally underrated Cesar Hernandez, along with Kolten Wong, and Jonathan Schoop. Marcus Semien remains a longshot with some very interesting potential.

3b Rafael Devers

SS Xander Bogaerts

LF Andrew Benintendi

CF Kevin Kiermaier. Acquired from Tampa in a deal for Christian Vazquez

RF Alex Verdugo

DH JD Martinez

 

SP: Eduardo Rodriguez

SP: Nathan Eovaldi

SP: Nick Pivetta

SP: Rick Porcello. Signed as a free agent.

SP: Shane Baz. Acquired with Kiermaier from Tampa for Vazquez. Shane McLanahan is also a possibility. (Neither trade works on BTV, as Vazquez' value is greater than either combination. But I am still predicting it or some variation.) Tanner Houck could also claim this spot, which is just a placeholder for Sale. All three pitchers (Houck, Baz, McLanahan) have minor league options.

 

CL: Brad Hand. Signed as a free agent

RP: Archie Bradley. Signed as a free agent

RP: Matt Barnes

RP: Ryan Brasier

RP: Darwinzon Hernandez

RP: Paul Campbell. Rule 5 selection from Tampa. Bloom drafted him out of Clemson.

RP: Austin Brice

RP: Phillips Valdez

 

BN Kevin Plawecki

BN: Michael Chavis

BN: Brad Miller. Can play 2b, 1b, and corner OF and provides a LHH bench bat, and has a history with Bloom.

BN: Christian Arroyo

 

 

A bit of an obvious theme - Bloom acquiring players he knows. Of course, he has already done some of that by acquiring Christian Arroyo, Cesar Puello, Ryan Weber, and probably 1 or 2 others. (He also seems to like former Giants and Rockies.)

 

 

So how would this team fair? If you don't like it, blame Bloom, not me...

 

I like this team.