A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

This comment has nothing to do with whether we should try to re-sign JBJ, only with the pay system itself.

 

JBJ's arbitration salary for 2020 was $11 million. But the consensus seems to be he's only worth about half that.

 

Have we reached a point where some guys will make more money in their last year of arbitration than they could make as free agents?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think JBJ is more highly-regarded in the industry than the Nation. He's not taking a 50% pay cut to stay in Boston, unless the entire market collapses. I expect Bradley expects at least a two- or three-year deal at his going rate: 3 for $30, 2 for $20... Someone will at least offer him 2 for $16.

[notin]

I think JBJ is more highly-regarded in the industry than the Nation. He's not taking a 50% pay cut to stay in Boston, unless the entire market collapses. I expect Bradley expects at least a two- or three-year deal at his going rate: 3 for $30, 2 for $20... Someone will at least offer him 2 for $16.

 

I think the entire market isa big question mark right now.

 

Bradley might be very highly regarded around the league as opposed to by Sox fans. We've seen that before, most notably with JD Drew. A commentor on MLBtr best summed up that situation by saying "The only people who don't think Drew isa good player are Red Soxfans."

 

With Bradley, I think it comes down to exactly how many teams are spending and how he is viewed against some of the similar alternatives, a list that will include Kevin Pillar, Michael Taylor and Jake Marisnick. And there will be other options, including likely non-tender candidate Juan Lagares and potentially available Kevin Kiermaier (owed $25.8 mill over the next 2 years) Even at that lofty price, Kiermaier's acquisition could still result in a net lower amount depending on who goes back to Tampa...

[Bellhorn04]

Bradley might be very highly regarded around the league as opposed to by Sox fans. We've seen that before, most notably with JD Drew. A commentor on MLBtr best summed up that situation by saying "The only people who don't think Drew isa good player are Red Soxfans."

 

"The other man's grass is always greener" syndrome sure seems to apply some times.

[harmony]

An Over the Monster columnist writes that the Red Sox should re-sign Jackie Bradley Jr.:

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2020/10/1/21496652/boston-red-sox-offseason-jackie-bradley-jr-free-agency

[notin]

An Over the Monster columnist writes that the Red Sox should re-sign Jackie Bradley Jr.:

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2020/10/1/21496652/boston-red-sox-offseason-jackie-bradley-jr-free-agency

 

I think they will. As does soxprospects.com.

 

Of course, a lot of this operates on the assumption that Bradley wants to stay at all...

[notin]

An Over the Monster columnist writes that the Red Sox should re-sign Jackie Bradley Jr.:

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2020/10/1/21496652/boston-red-sox-offseason-jackie-bradley-jr-free-agency

 

Possible Bradley wants to join Mookie in LA. That team could easily re-arrange their defense (Bradley to CF, Bellinger from CF to 1B, Muncy from 1B to 3B, Turner from 3B to free agency) to accommodate him...

[harmony]

I think they will. As does soxprospects.com.

 

Of course, a lot of this operates on the assumption that Bradley wants to stay at all...

In a report that appeared Sunday, Jackie Bradley Jr. seemed diplomatically ambivalent about a return to the Red Sox:

 

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2020/09/27/jackie-bradley-jr-red-sox-last-game

[harmony]

Possible Bradley wants to join Mookie in LA. That team could easily re-arrange their defense (Bradley to CF, Bellinger from CF to 1B, Muncy from 1B to 3B, Turner from 3B to free agency) to accommodate him...

Does it make any difference that this year Jackie Bradley Jr. was presumptively the only African American on a 40-man roster in a city with Boston's reputation?

 

Not sure there's a good way to discuss the sensitive topic of race.

[notin]

Does it make any difference that this year Jackie Bradley Jr. was presumptively the only African American on a 40-man roster in a city with Boston's reputation?

 

Not sure there's a good way to discuss the sensitive topic of race.

 

There isn't, but whether or not it is a factor would not be something new for Boston...

[mvp 78]

This comment has nothing to do with whether we should try to re-sign JBJ, only with the pay system itself.

 

JBJ's arbitration salary for 2020 was $11 million. But the consensus seems to be he's only worth about half that.

 

Have we reached a point where some guys will make more money in their last year of arbitration than they could make as free agents?

 

Yes. The arb system is a little flawed at the moment.

 

This is why the SOX SHOULD HAVE NONTENDERED JBJ.

[mvp 78]

I think JBJ is more highly-regarded in the industry than the Nation. He's not taking a 50% pay cut to stay in Boston, unless the entire market collapses. I expect Bradley expects at least a two- or three-year deal at his going rate: 3 for $30, 2 for $20... Someone will at least offer him 2 for $16.

 

There is no way a bottom of the order bat is getting 10M AAV.

[mvp 78]

Does it make any difference that this year Jackie Bradley Jr. was presumptively the only African American on a 40-man roster in a city with Boston's reputation?

 

Not sure there's a good way to discuss the sensitive topic of race.

 

No.

 

Betts was also the only African American on the Dodgers.

 

The lack of African American players in the Red Sox system is a mere reflection on the overall state of the game and the problems in developing younger players in less affluent areas.

[notin]

No.

 

Betts was also the only African American on the Dodgers.

 

The lack of African American players in the Red Sox system is a mere reflection on the overall state of the game and the problems in developing younger players in less affluent areas.

 

While he did not play this year, David Price was still technically a Dodger. Betts might have been the only African American on that team, but he knows very well that is for this season only. At a minimum, Price will be back next year.

 

And LA doesn't carry the same reputation as Boston in that regard. Torii Hunter never said he would not sign there (and he did sign in neighboring Anaheim). Ditto Adam Jones. Carl Crawford did not have the same complaints about fans in LA that he did about fans in Boston. In fact, historically, the Dodgers are the team that brought up Jackie Robinson. So here we are 73 years later, the the 1947 Dodgers had more African American players than the 2020 Red Sox.

 

 

What you said about the state of the game is correct, but it is not the issue, and the existence of fringe talents on Boston's system like Marcus Wilson and Josh Ockimey are unlikely to change anything...

[Bellhorn04]

Yes. The arb system is a little flawed at the moment.

 

This is why the SOX SHOULD HAVE NONTENDERED JBJ.

 

It'll always be a bit of a head-scratcher, especially in a penny-pinching year.

[Bellhorn04]

So here we are 73 years later, the the 1947 Dodgers had more African American players than the 2020 Red Sox.

 

One is more than one?

[notin]

One is more than one?

 

The Dodgers also called up the largely forgotten Dan Bankhead later that same year, making Bankhead the first African American pitcher in MLB and the first African American to hit a home run in his first at-bat...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

There is no way a bottom of the order bat is getting 10M AAV.

 

Maybe not. But there is also no way a guy making 11M is hitting free agency and offering his services for less...

[Bellhorn04]

The Dodgers also called up the largely forgotten Dan Bankhead later that same year, making Bankhead the first African American pitcher in MLB and the first African American to hit a home run in his first at-bat...

 

To be fair, the Red Sox are not the only team to have a small number of African American players in 2020.

[harmony]

No.

 

Betts was also the only African American on the Dodgers.

 

The lack of African American players in the Red Sox system is a mere reflection on the overall state of the game and the problems in developing younger players in less affluent areas.

African Americans are not evenly distributed across MLB rosters.

 

The Seattle Mariners opened the season with three African Americans in their starting rotation before Taijuan Walker was traded. Kyle Lewis and Justus Sheffield are Rookie of the Year candidates. This year J.P. Crawford ranked among baseball's top defensive shortstops. The Mariners opened the season with Shed Long at second base, Mallex Smith in right field and Carl Edwards Jr. in the bullpen but ended the season with Phil Ervin in right field. Dee Gordon was Seattle's nominee for the Roberto Clemente Award. On August 31 the Mariners acquired outfielder Taylor Trammell, the only Top 100 prospect dealt at the trade deadline.

Edited October 1, 2020 by harmony

[mvp 78]

Maybe not. But there is also no way a guy making 11M is hitting free agency and offering his services for less...

 

He'll be sitting out then.

[mvp 78]

To be fair, the Red Sox are not the only team to have a small number of African American players in 2020.

 

There were 80 African American players on the opening day rosters. Of those 80, 10 were on the Mariners. That leaves about 2-3 per team for the rest of the league. 14 teams had 2 or fewer players. 3 teams had none.

 

The amount of African American players on the current Red Sox team is not an issue. They had at least 3 on last year's opening day roster. Was that enough then?

 

Yes, Boston does have its share of shitheads. The Sox have a bad history with race, but it seems like they've trended in the right direction since they changed the name of Yawkey Way.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

There's no defending the racist history of the Red Sox, and its effect on the franchise rep and certainly the standings -- the Bambino curse literally fails in comparison to turning down both Robinson and Mays within five years (imagine those two hitting in front of Williams).

 

But there are many documented factors why the percentage of African Americans from the United States in the entire MLB peaked in the mid-70s and has decreased ever since. Other factors have seen a steady increase in Spanish-speaking players from the North and South American continents in pro baseball, though some of these men still report encountering problems because of both their skin color and language barrier.

 

As for the Sox, we all saw the BLM banners inside and outside Fenway... we'll just have to trust that if they do choose to re-sign JBJ, it's because they value Jackie the man and Jackie the player, and not Jackie the minority.

[mvp 78]

And if the sox re-sign JBJ and add Brantley and Stroman, does that fix the issue of race? Of course not.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He'll be sitting out then.

 

I didn't say JBJ will ultimately refuse to settle for a cut, but nobody is going to play his career looking forward to free agency, and then open the bidding on himself at half price, either.

[harmony]

There's no defending the racist history of the Red Sox, and its effect on the franchise rep and certainly the standings -- the Bambino curse literally fails in comparison to turning down both Robinson and Mays within five years (imagine those two hitting in front of Williams).

 

But there are many documented factors why the percentage of African Americans from the United States in the entire MLB peaked in the mid-70s and has decreased ever since. Other factors have seen a steady increase in Spanish-speaking players from the North and South American continents in pro baseball, though some of these men still report encountering problems because of both their skin color and language barrier.

 

As for the Sox, we all saw the BLM banners inside and outside Fenway... we'll just have to trust that if they do choose to re-sign JBJ, it's because they value Jackie the man and Jackie the player, and not Jackie the minority.

Those are salient points but how does Jackie Bradley Jr. perceive the situation?

[mvp 78]

I didn't say JBJ will ultimately refuse to settle for a cut, but nobody is going to play his career looking forward to free agency, and then open the bidding on himself at half price, either.

 

I think he'll be a very late signing. He'll be hoping for a big payday, but he's not going to be getting signed at the winter meetings for sure. I just don't believe the market is there for him.

[mvp 78]

Those are salient points but how does Jackie Bradley Jr. perceive the situation?

 

Go read today's globe for the piece on him?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Those are salient points but how does Jackie Bradley Jr. perceive the situation?

 

Great question. JBJ said a big factor deciding where to go will be responsibility to his family. Maybe it all comes down to climate: meteorological, economical, and/or political...

[notin]

Great question. JBJ said a big factor deciding where to go will be responsibility to his family. Maybe it all comes down to climate: meteorological, economical, and/or political...

 

Or financial, which is the most likely answer,,,