A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[moonslav59]

I just think Red Sox fans should be prepared and not be surprised if favorite players are included in offseason trades. According to recent columnists, there are very few Red Sox fans left anyway, and certainly no more beloved players...

 

If the plan was a complete overhaul, we'd have done it already. It makes no sense to gut everything over a 2-3 year period. They'd have pulled the band aid already.

 

We are going to try to compete for a playoff slot next year, while strengthening the longer term outlook, at the same time. If that involves trading a key player or two, so be it, but I doubt we see any deals like Bogey for prospects. Even the Betts deal brought back an immediate impact player in Verdugo.

[moonslav59]

Trading ERod would be dealing him at an all time low. What could you even get for him? Top 20 prospect? That's basically the return for Pillar.

 

ERod is not going to be traded, unless he comes back, and we suck next summer. Then, he might go- along with Barnes and maybe JD, Eovaldi and Vaz.

[mvp 78]

If the plan was a complete overhaul, we'd have done it already. It makes no sense to gut everything over a 2-3 year period. They'd have pulled the band aid already.

 

We are going to try to compete for a playoff slot next year, while strengthening the longer term outlook, at the same time. If that involves trading a key player or two, so be it, but I doubt we see any deals like Bogey for prospects. Even the Betts deal brought back an immediate impact player in Verdugo.

 

If there was ever a year to bottom out it was 2020. No reason they'd fall to further depths next year.

[Bellhorn04]

If there was ever a year to bottom out it was 2020. No reason they'd fall to further depths next year.

 

I'm sure it won't be the plan to be deadline sellers.

 

The health status of certain starting pitchers will be a big factor.

[moonslav59]

If there was ever a year to bottom out it was 2020. No reason they'd fall to further depths next year.

 

They can't afford to.

 

Bloom will likely be given a $60-80M spending budget for this winter and next summer.

 

If we can't improve enough to compete for a playoff slot with that sort of spending budget, then my thought on Bloom were wrong.

[mvp 78]

I'm sure it won't be the plan to be deadline sellers.

 

The health status of certain starting pitchers will be a big factor.

 

I would say that if they are at .500, it would still be smart to sell anyone with a contract coming due (ERod, Barnes, Perez).

[moonslav59]

I'm sure it won't be the plan to be deadline sellers.

 

The health status of certain starting pitchers will be a big factor.

 

Yes, along with JD's rebound or not. If we become sellers, next July, it might not be such a bad thing for the longer term outlook, but sucking for 3 straight years will be worse than the 3 bad years under Ben, since those weren't consecutive, and they were interrupted by a ring year.

[mvp 78]

They can't afford to.

 

Bloom will likely be given a $60-80M spending budget for this winter and next summer.

 

If we can't improve enough to compete for a playoff slot with that sort of spending budget, then my thought on Bloom were wrong.

 

Depends on what your definition of "compete" is. Also, I'd prefer the longview of Bloom. Even if next season was a car crash, you need to stick it through for a few more years.

[moonslav59]

I would say that if they are at .500, it would still be smart to sell anyone with a contract coming due (ERod, Barnes, Perez).

 

Agreed, and maybe even JD, Beni and Vaz.

[moonslav59]

Depends on what your definition of "compete" is. Also, I'd prefer the longview of Bloom. Even if next season was a car crash, you need to stick it through for a few more years.

 

Be in the run for a playoff slot in September is "competing," to me.

 

I expect we might compete for a ring by 2022-2023, which means making the playoffs is the minimum expectation. (I don't expect us to come close to winning a ring in 2021.)

[mvp 78]

Be in the run for a playoff slot in September is "competing," to me.

 

I expect we might compete for a ring by 2022-2023, which means making the playoffs is the minimum expectation. (I don't expect us to come close to winning a ring in 2021.)

 

If so, that's not really a cliff, is it?

[moonslav59]

If so, that's not really a cliff, is it?

 

This year was.

 

I never said I expected the cliff to last years, in fact I argued it should only be 1-2 years.

 

I also said I did not think we'd ever be the worst team, as long as we stayed near the tax limit. I never thought we'd finish 4th worst, so in that sense, it got worse than I expected, but injuries to Sale and ERod were factors.

[oldtimer]

Be in the run for a playoff slot in September is "competing," to me.

 

I expect we might compete for a ring by 2022-2023, which means making the playoffs is the minimum expectation. (I don't expect us to come close to winning a ring in 2021.)

 

Watching the playoffs reinforces the notion that to compete at that level you need at least a couple of excellent starting pitchers who are capable of going 6 or more innings and several quality relievers. Those are needed along with good defense and at least an offensive threat from most of the lineup. I don't think we have those starters right now, our relief corp is below par and we have defensive issues. We may be able to get to the playoffs in 2021 but to compete in them we need to solidify the pitching first.

[moonslav59]

Watching the playoffs reinforces the notion that to compete at that level you need at least a couple of excellent starting pitchers who are capable of going 6 or more innings and several quality relievers. Those are needed along with good defense and at least an offensive threat from most of the lineup. I don't think we have those starters right now, our relief corp is below par and we have defensive issues. We may be able to get to the playoffs in 2021 but to compete in them we need to solidify the pitching first. [/size

 

I agree 100%.

 

Could we use all of the $60+M on 2-3 solid starters? Probably, but we won't.

 

We might try to get two very good tier 2 starters and a RP'er or two, but we also need a CF'er.

 

We could go cheap on all positions not starting pitchers.

[oldtimer]

I agree 100%.

 

Could we use all of the $60+M on 2-3 solid starters? Probably, but we won't.

 

We might try to get two very good tier 2 starters and a RP'er or two, but we also need a CF'er.

 

We could go cheap on all positions not starting pitchers.

 

You have said you wouldn't give JBJ more than $4 mil a year while we are paying Beni $6.6 mil. JBJ is better defensively and may have finally improved his hitting. I would offer him $6.6 mil for 2 years and trade Beni. We have Munoz, Chavis and Duran. All of them can fill the left field slot. Duran may become a very good ML outfielder and possibly take over in CF when JBJ leaves. I don't think we have thoughts of bringing in a star like Springer to fill that position so Bradley is an acceptable alternative as we build back into a competitive team.

[notin]

You have said you wouldn't give JBJ more than $4 mil a year while we are paying Beni $6.6 mil. JBJ is better defensively and may have finally improved his hitting. I would offer him $6.6 mil for 2 years and trade Beni. We have Munoz, Chavis and Duran. All of them can fill the left field slot. Duran may become a very good ML outfielder and possibly take over in CF when JBJ leaves. I don't think we have thoughts of bringing in a star like Springer to fill that position so Bradley is an acceptable alternative as we build back into a competitive team.

 

1. Sign JBJ

2. Trade Benintendi for P (to CWS for Reynaldo Lopez makes sense. I'm telling ya.)

3. Trade Vazquez and Thad Ward for Jameson Taillon. Blackmail Cherington if necessary.

4. Sign Mike Brantley for LF and James McCann to catch.

5. Bullpen. Fix bullpen.

[harmony]

You have said you wouldn't give JBJ more than $4 mil a year while we are paying Beni $6.6 mil. JBJ is better defensively and may have finally improved his hitting. I would offer him $6.6 mil for 2 years and trade Beni. We have Munoz, Chavis and Duran. All of them can fill the left field slot. Duran may become a very good ML outfielder and possibly take over in CF when JBJ leaves. I don't think we have thoughts of bringing in a star like Springer to fill that position so Bradley is an acceptable alternative as we build back into a competitive team.

Jackie Bradley Jr. has never been able to duplicate his 2016 All Star season when he posted 5.3 fWAR, valued at $42.2 million:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jackie-bradley-jr/12984/stats?position=OF

 

Nevertheless, since then Bradley has posted 7.8 fWAR, valued at $62.6 million, in 479 games over four seasons. Bradley will likely command an annual salary of at least $8 million.

 

FWIW this season Bradley was almost certainly the only African American on the Red Sox 40-man roster and SoxProspects lists only two African Americans on its Top 40 prospect list. Those factors may or may not be relevant to the franchise or to prospective signees.

Edited September 30, 2020 by harmony

[dgalehouse]

If you draw the line at 4 mil , you will surely not sign JBJ.

[Thunder]

1. Sign JBJ

2. Trade Benintendi for P (to CWS for Reynaldo Lopez makes sense. I'm telling ya.)

3. Trade Vazquez and Thad Ward for Jameson Taillon. Blackmail Cherington if necessary.

4. Sign Mike Brantley for LF and James McCann to catch.

5. Bullpen. Fix bullpen.

 

Brantley isn't exactly a spring chicken. Not the kind of guy I would target for a rebuild.

 

And if you were to correctly predict those trades after correctly predicting who we hire as manager, I'm bringing you to the betting window for next year's Kentucky Derby

[notin]

Brantley isn't exactly a spring chicken. Not the kind of guy I would target for a rebuild.

 

And if you were to correctly predict those trades after correctly predicting who we hire as manager, I'm bringing you to the betting window for next year's Kentucky Derby

 

Brantley was willing to accept a 2 year contract last time. While not really an essential part of a rebuild, he is an extremely good hitter (.852 OPS/125 OPS+ in the last 3 seasons) who can fill a role. And I'm not anticipating some sort of full blown "rebuild" like, say, the Astros did; I think the Sox will add pieces to make them competitive without adding any boat anchor contracts that drag on for the better part of the next decade as the player ages into mediocrity. So, I am not expecting Bauer.

 

As for my ability to predict, I think the Pirates trade is unlikely simply because Vazquez probably doesn't really fit their timeline, although a third team (Mets? Rays?) could get involved. But you might have loved my old WAPM predictions from the other site...

[mvp 78]

Brantley isn't exactly a spring chicken. Not the kind of guy I would target for a rebuild.

 

And if you were to correctly predict those trades after correctly predicting who we hire as manager, I'm bringing you to the betting window for next year's Kentucky Derby

 

Next year will be Brantley's 13th season in the bigs. Feels like 20th though.

[notin]

Next year will be Brantley's 13th season in the bigs. Feels like 20th though.

 

He's only 33. It does seem like he should be more than 2 years older than Springer...

[mvp 78]

Brantley was willing to accept a 2 year contract last time. While not really an essential part of a rebuild, he is an extremely good hitter (.852 OPS/125 OPS+ in the last 3 seasons) who can fill a role. And I'm not anticipating some sort of full blown "rebuild" like, say, the Astros did; I think the Sox will add pieces to make them competitive without adding any boat anchor contracts that drag on for the better part of the next decade as the player ages into mediocrity. So, I am not expecting Bauer.

 

As for my ability to predict, I think the Pirates trade is unlikely simply because Vazquez probably doesn't really fit their timeline, although a third team (Mets? Rays?) could get involved. But you might have loved my old WAPM predictions from the other site...

You're the OG WAP man?

[mvp 78]

He's only 33. It does seem like he should be more than 2 years older than Springer...

 

I was surprised at his numbers when I looked at them. I just remember the 2016-2017 version of Brantley.

[notin]

You're the OG WAP man?

 

No. I am the original WAPM man. The Wildly Accurate Projection Machine.

 

An don't ever talk about OG WAP again. I had no idea what that meant and I googled that!!! Bad, bad idea!

 

(A googling of WAPM leads to an embroidered shirt and a Scrabble hints page. Surprisingly not to a radio station.)

[mvp 78]

No. I am the original WAPM man. The Wildly Accurate Projection Machine.

 

An don't ever talk about OG WAP again. I had no idea what that meant and I googled that!!! Bad, bad idea!

 

(A googling of WAPM leads to an embroidered shirt and a Scrabble hints page. Surprisingly not to a radio station.)

 

I'm sorry, I figured you were alive over the past month or so and knew what WAP was. Sorry that I'm so enlightened.

[notin]

I'm sorry, I figured you were alive over the past month or so and knew what WAP was. Sorry that I'm so enlightened.

 

I am surviving, but it's not really living...

[moonslav59]

You have said you wouldn't give JBJ more than $4 mil a year while we are paying Beni $6.6 mil. JBJ is better defensively and may have finally improved his hitting. I would offer him $6.6 mil for 2 years and trade Beni. We have Munoz, Chavis and Duran. All of them can fill the left field slot. Duran may become a very good ML outfielder and possibly take over in CF when JBJ leaves. I don't think we have thoughts of bringing in a star like Springer to fill that position so Bradley is an acceptable alternative as we build back into a competitive team.

 

Honestly, what Beni makes does not affect what I think JBJ should make. Beni was signed to avoid arbs after a good year. That has nothing to do with JBJ.

 

JBJ is getting older, and though his defensive metrics improved, this year, he is not as good as he used to be on D and is getting older.

 

"Finally improved his hitting" is not a sure bet. We only played 60 games, and he is famous for having long extended slumps. He has not proven he can be a consistently good hitter, to me.

 

I'd offer him $8M/2 or sign someone like Pillar or a very good defensive CF'er with a weak bat, so we can save money and get better pitching (and defense).

[moonslav59]

If you draw the line at 4 mil , you will surely not sign JBJ.

 

That was basically my point.

[notin]

If you draw the line at 4 mil , you will surely not sign JBJ.

 

It was enough to get Pillar, who is a very similar player...