A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

So what you're saying is that when giving Price a contract, a GM might think "Well he does not throw as many innings as other pitchers, but that means he gives better opportunities to the relief pitchers to pick up the slack. Hey, that is worth $17 mill per year!!"

 

Just imagine how much Price could get if he stopped pitching altogether!!!

 

It's just about the fact that Price had the same WAR in 100 fewer innings than Bumgarner.

 

Obviously you can't generate any WAR if you don't pitch at all.

[notin]

It's just about the fact that Price had the same WAR in 100 fewer innings than Bumgarner.

 

Obviously you can't generate any WAR if you don't pitch at all.

 

Yes but it's a stat encompassing his year long accomplishments. To say "he pitched 100 less innings allows someone else to generate more WAR" is a ridiculous reason. Does it mean he pitched better in his 100 fewer innings? Yes. But using outside "Not David Price" factors, like how well someone else might have pitched, as an evaluation of Price is just flat out wrong. But his durability as measured in IP is a factor when looking at the two of them...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

When discussing the 2021 starting rotation, the guy I worry will be the least reliable -- as far as the total unknown -- may be our 19-game winner from '19, ERod. Since there are no longterm studies of the longterm affects of Covid, we can only hope the heart problems afflicting some victims will heal entirely... eventually. If not? He may never be the same player again. At least with the Tommy John guys, we know what to expect...

 

Anyone remember Carlos Quintana? Red Sox starting first baseman in 1990 and '91, decent hitter -- .287, .295 -- around a 2-3 WAR guy... then broke his upper arm in a car accident, lost all pop and was done in the MLB at age 27.

[harmony]

When discussing the 2021 starting rotation, the guy I worry will be the least reliable -- as far as the total unknown -- may be our 19-game winner from '19, ERod. Since there are no longterm studies of the longterm affects of Covid, we can only hope the heart problems afflicting some victims will heal entirely... eventually. If not? He may never be the same player again. At least with the Tommy John guys, we know what to expect...

Last year Eduardo Rodriguez and Seattle's Marco Gonzales -- lefthanders born 14 months apart -- each posted 3.7 fWAR in league-leading 34 starts apiece.

 

Their fortunes have diverged this year with Rodriguez on the shelf and Gonzales impressing with 1.7 fWAR in 10 starts.

 

Who knows what 2021 holds for the COVID survivor and the Tommy John survivor who in 2015 were ranked No. 59 and No. 50, respectively, on Baseball America's Top 100 prospect list?

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/eduardo-rodriguez/13164/stats?position=P

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/marco-gonzales/15467/stats?position=P

Edited September 23, 2020 by harmony

[notin]

When discussing the 2021 starting rotation, the guy I worry will be the least reliable -- as far as the total unknown -- may be our 19-game winner from '19, ERod. Since there are no longterm studies of the longterm affects of Covid, we can only hope the heart problems afflicting some victims will heal entirely... eventually. If not? He may never be the same player again. At least with the Tommy John guys, we know what to expect...

 

Anyone remember Carlos Quintana? Red Sox starting first baseman in 1990 and '91, decent hitter -- .287, .295 -- around a 2-3 WAR guy... then broke his upper arm in a car accident, lost all pop and was done in the MLB at age 27.

 

In 3+ seasons, Quintana had a career total of 2.8 fWAR, 2.6 of which came in 1991.

 

Granted, the defensive contributions from that era are incomplete. But honestly, I saw Q play and nothing he did with his glove was going to help him here...

[Kimmi]

@SoxNotes

In his last 31 games (beginning Aug. 14), Jackie Bradley Jr. has hit .306 with an .894 OPS.

 

According to Statcast, Bradley has recorded 6 outs above average, tied with Luis Robert for most in the majors among outfielders.

 

JBJ is coming back next year, baby...

 

If he would just stay with that opposite field approach.

[Kimmi]

When discussing the 2021 starting rotation, the guy I worry will be the least reliable -- as far as the total unknown -- may be our 19-game winner from '19, ERod. Since there are no longterm studies of the longterm affects of Covid, we can only hope the heart problems afflicting some victims will heal entirely... eventually. If not? He may never be the same player again. At least with the Tommy John guys, we know what to expect...

 

Anyone remember Carlos Quintana? Red Sox starting first baseman in 1990 and '91, decent hitter -- .287, .295 -- around a 2-3 WAR guy... then broke his upper arm in a car accident, lost all pop and was done in the MLB at age 27.

 

At this point, I don't think we should count on ERod for anything in 2021. Even if he is given the green light, the Sox have said that they're not ramping him back up to anything close to 200 innings.

 

I'd plan the offseason as though he won't be back. Then when he hopefully returns, that will be some very welcome depth.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes but it's a stat encompassing his year long accomplishments. To say "he pitched 100 less innings allows someone else to generate more WAR" is a ridiculous reason. Does it mean he pitched better in his 100 fewer innings? Yes. But using outside "Not David Price" factors, like how well someone else might have pitched, as an evaluation of Price is just flat out wrong. But his durability as measured in IP is a factor when looking at the two of them...

 

Nonetheless, I think if Bumgarner's numbers merit 85 million, Price's would be worth a little better than half that, age difference and all.

[harmony]

At this point, I don't think we should count on ERod for anything in 2021. Even if he is given the green light, the Sox have said that they're not ramping him back up to anything close to 200 innings.

 

I'd plan the offseason as though he won't be back. Then when he hopefully returns, that will be some very welcome depth.

What are the chances the Red Sox do not tender Eduardo Rodriguez a 2021 contract working off the lefthander's 2020 salary of $8.3 million? If the Sox do not tender Rodriguez a contract, will Rodriguez look elsewhere instead of negotiating a lower salary with the Sox? Does Rodriguez harbor ill feelings after losing in arbitration last offseason when the panel went with the team's $8.3 million figure over his proposal of $8.975 million? MLB Trade Rumors had projected Rodriguez with a 2020 salary of $9.5 million coming off his 19-win season.

 

Rodriguez is scheduled to become a free agent after the 2021 season.

 

The offseason could be more interesting than the 2020 season.

 

Or not.

Edited September 22, 2020 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Nonetheless, I think if Bumgarner's numbers merit 85 million, Price's would be worth a little better than half that, age difference and all.

 

The differences between the two are too extreme to make a good comp.

 

That being said, there are plenty of instances where injury- prone pitchers have gotten fat deals and sometimes for 3 or more years, but how many at his age?

 

I've never argued $16M x 3 is an extreme overpay, so it seems like this whole debate has morphed into something I never intended it to be.

 

I get how several posters think the Dodgers wanted Price at $16M/3. I disagree, but I don't think it's a crazy position to hold. Once can find several examples of one GM who seemingly pays someone more or way more than some of us think anyone else would or should pay.

 

Can anyone find other 34 year old SP'ers who pitched about 63 GS'd or 360 IP his previous 3 seasons with an ERA+ of about 122 that got a contract for $16M x 3?

 

I'm not saying there's nobody that fits that bill. My guess is some GM did it, but I'm curious, if it has happened in recent years.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

In 3+ seasons, Quintana had a career total of 2.8 fWAR, 2.6 of which came in 1991.

 

Granted, the defensive contributions from that era are incomplete. But honestly, I saw Q play and nothing he did with his glove was going to help him here...

 

I was citing Quintana's bWAR for 1990 at 2.0, and 1991 at 2.9. Oddly, his career bWAR is 2.7, a tenth less than his fWAR. Both Fangraphs and BB Ref describe their WAR totals as estimates, but the latter is easier for a dinosaur like me -- more appealing and quicker to access -- because I like clicking on any team in any season and seeing pics and totals of their top 12 WAR players.

 

That's also the best I can do in accepting a major modern stat that can't be figured with one or two of the four operations of a calculator.

[moonslav59]

Remember all those suggested salary dump suggested trades of Price or Eovaldi for Wil Myers?

 

Myers is flirting with a 1,000 OPS, this season.

[moonslav59]

soxprospects.com

 

September 21, 2020 at 4:32 PM

Scouting Report Update: Jacob Wallace

 

Last Friday, the Red Sox announced they had acquired Jacob Wallace from Colorado as the player to be named later for Kevin Pillar. The deal now stands at Pillar and cash considerations for Wallace and international bonus slot money. Wallace was Colorado's third-round pick in 2019 out of the University of Connecticut and is set to debut in the SoxProspects.com top 20 in the coming days. This makes him the fourth prospect acquired at the trade deadline to debut in the current top 20. Here is Wallace's initial scouting report, compiled from available data and reports, as well as our scouting sources across the game.

 

Physical Description: Average, proportional frame with minimal remaining projection. Above-average athlete.

 

Mechanics: Throws from a three-quarters arm slot. High-effort delivery. High leg kick, but gets low coming forward. Long arm action behind before he whips his arm forward.

 

Fastball: 93-95 mph. Tops out at 97 mph. Pitch shows life and tail. Pitch jumps on hitters. Command and control need refinement. Potential plus offering.

 

Slider: 84-86 mph. Long, sweeping pitch with above-average depth. True swing-and-miss pitch with major league out pitch potential with development. Potential above-average offering.

 

Changeup: Third pitch that he will use on occasion with late, arm-side movement. Did not throw the pitch in college and only added it after signing.

 

Career Notes: Originally from Methuen, Massachusetts, he starred at Methuen High before becoming the closer at UConn. Pitched for Bourne in the 2018 Cape Cod League, where he was named the co-recipient of the John Claffey New England Top Prospect Award and was named a CCBL All-Star.

 

Summation: Potential relief type. Ceiling of a closer. Fastball/slider combination is very intriguing in a bullpen role. Potential for two above-average pitches at least and a unique delivery that gives hitters a very different look on the mound. Unclear at this point if the Red Sox will try to develop him as a starter, as he does also have a changeup. Command and control need refinement in order to reach his potential. Very intense on the mound, always competes.

[mvp 78]

Damn, Bloom doing work!

[Bellhorn04]

The differences between the two are too extreme to make a good comp.

 

That being said, there are plenty of instances where injury- prone pitchers have gotten fat deals and sometimes for 3 or more years, but how many at his age?

 

I've never argued $16M x 3 is an extreme overpay, so it seems like this whole debate has morphed into something I never intended it to be.

 

I get how several posters think the Dodgers wanted Price at $16M/3. I disagree, but I don't think it's a crazy position to hold. Once can find several examples of one GM who seemingly pays someone more or way more than some of us think anyone else would or should pay.

 

Can anyone find other 34 year old SP'ers who pitched about 63 GS'd or 360 IP his previous 3 seasons with an ERA+ of about 122 that got a contract for $16M x 3?

 

I'm not saying there's nobody that fits that bill. My guess is some GM did it, but I'm curious, if it has happened in recent years.

 

It's so close to the contracts for Happ and Morton that I don't know why we're even arguing about it. Happ and Morton did not get a guaranteed third year (but both deals included vesting options for third years), that's the only difference.

[moonslav59]

It's so close to the contracts for Happ and Morton that I don't know why we're even arguing about it. Happ and Morton did not get a guaranteed third year (but both deals included vesting options for third years), that's the only difference.

 

I think the 3rd year is big for 34 year olds, and I still think the Dodgers would have preferred not to take Price at that reduced cost. I said it was close.

 

I'm not sure why this has generated so much discussion.

 

Not mush else to talk about, I guess.

[Bellhorn04]

I think the 3rd year is big for 34 year olds, and I still think the Dodgers would have preferred not to take Price at that reduced cost. I said it was close.

 

I'm not sure why this has generated so much discussion.

 

Not mush else to talk about, I guess.

 

Exactly, it's just something to quibble about.

[moonslav59]

Exactly, it's just something to quibble about.

 

I'm lad we got 5 years of Verdugo plus Downs and Wong for 1 shortened season of Betts.

 

I'm glad we have the $16M budget space from the Price part of the deal, but I do think it's entirely possible Price pitches well enough to have earned that much or more. I just don't see having a 35-36 year old pitcher making $31M a year for 3 years as being an essential part to a rebuild.

 

I'm hopeful the next players we sign end up being more durable and productive than Price, Eovaldi, Sale, Pablito & HRam. Tht's 5 massive contracts with very little to show for it.

[notin]

I'm lad we got 5 years of Verdugo plus Downs and Wong for 1 shortened season of Betts.

 

I'm glad we have the $16M budget space from the Price part of the deal, but I do think it's entirely possible Price pitches well enough to have earned that much or more. I just don't see having a 35-36 year old pitcher making $31M a year for 3 years as being an essential part to a rebuild.

 

I'm hopeful the next players we sign end up being more durable and productive than Price, Eovaldi, Sale, Pablito & HRam. Tht's 5 massive contracts with very little to show for it.

 

 

That's actually a very common outcome for long term expensive free agents. Sure, the first year or two can be very productive, but they almost always end up being burdens before the contract is up...

[Nick]

I'm lad we got 5 years of Verdugo plus Downs and Wong for 1 shortened season of Betts.

 

I'm glad we have the $16M budget space from the Price part of the deal, but I do think it's entirely possible Price pitches well enough to have earned that much or more. I just don't see having a 35-36 year old pitcher making $31M a year for 3 years as being an essential part to a rebuild.

 

I'm hopeful the next players we sign end up being more durable and productive than Price, Eovaldi, Sale, Pablito & HRam. Tht's 5 massive contracts with very little to show for it.

 

I think we need to separate Sale's contract with the White Sox that Sox assumed and the new one he just signed. Signing both Pablito and HRam was unnecessary. One was okay but not both. I think all of us knew that back years of Price contract was in jeopardy from get go. He got massive amount of money for projected 4 years of production spread over 7 years. I thought Eovaldi's contract was reasonable, assuming he stayed healthy. Bad assumption I guess.

 

Not knowing anything about pitching, I wonder why it's so difficult for starters to pitch 200 innings.

Edited September 23, 2020 by Nick

[moonslav59]

I think we need to separate Sale's contract with the White Sox that Sox assumed and the new one he just signed. Signing both Pablito and HRam was unnecessary. One was okay but not both. I think all of us knew that back years of Price contract was in jeopardy from get go. He got massive amount of money for projected 4 years of production spread over 7 years. I thought Eovaldi's contract was reasonable, assuming he stayed healthy. Bad assumption I guess.

 

Yes, I meant the Sale re-signing. You all know how much I loved that trade.

 

When we signed HRam, I thought he'd play 3B, and I liked the idea. I barely had time to think about it before they announced signing Pablito.

 

I was okay with the HRam, Sale, Price and Eovaldi signings.

 

In hindsight, none look good.

[notin]

I think we need to separate Sale's contract with the White Sox that Sox assumed and the new one he just signed. Signing both Pablito and HRam was unnecessary. One was okay but not both. I think all of us knew that back years of Price contract was in jeopardy from get go. He got massive amount of money for projected 4 years of production spread over 7 years. I thought Eovaldi's contract was reasonable, assuming he stayed healthy. Bad assumption I guess.

 

Not knowing anything about pitching, I wonder why it's so difficult for starters getting to 200 innings pitched.

 

It's a bullpen game now. With the advent of pitch counts, larger bullpens and specialized relievers, managers simply do not leave them in nearly as long any more...

[Nick]

Bloom will be freakin' trading genius.

[moonslav59]

That's actually a very common outcome for long term expensive free agents. Sure, the first year or two can be very productive, but they almost always end up being burdens before the contract is up...

 

Our problem was the first year or two or three were pretty much all let down or horrific letdowns.

 

HRam went from having a .907 OPS his previous 2 seasons to:

.717 year one and .776 in his 3+ yrs with the Sox

 

Pablo went from having a .794 OPS with SF to

.658 year one and .646 in his 2+ seasons with the Sox

 

Price went from being a horse 133 ERA+ in 866 IP in 4 yrs to

112 ERA+ year one and 75 IP year two and a 118 ERA+ in 4 seasons with us.

 

Eovaldi was no "horse" when we re-signed him, so giving us 110 IP over the first 2 seasons with us is no surprise, but the ERA+ of 90 sucks. It was 112 in 2018- not counting the playoffs.

 

The Sale deal has just begun, so the jury is still out. He still has 3-4 years left, buy year one saw zero IP'd.

 

We're basically oh for five on the "first 2-3 years" of all our last major 5 signings.

[notin]

Bloom will be freakin' trading genius.

 

Some predictions, which, let's face it, rarely come true when I make them.

 

Andrew Benintendi and Christian Vazquez are in their final week of games for the Red Sox.

 

Benintendi to the White Sox for Rodrigo Lopez is a trade that makes a ton of sense for both sides.

 

Vazquez will go to the Rays for a package that includes Kevin Kiermaier as the "bad contract" Bloom uses to up the return for a farm system and pitching staff he is obviously very familiar with. As Tampa has already taken multiple steps to replace Kiermaier (by acquiring both Manny Margot and Randy Arozarena), they would also clearly find this to be a good start.

 

While the free agent who clearly fills the biggest need for the Sox is Trevor Bauer, I have my doubts Bloom tries to sign him. Tampa is 222-157 (.585) since 2018, and the biggest external name Bloom has added to that staff is Charlie Morton (6.7 fWAR), who trails only their internally-developed Blake Snell (8.1 fWAR) for the team lead, but in one less season. I don't think adding an ace i going to be his style. But I do think he will spend...

[notin]

Our problem was the first year or two or three were pretty much all let down or horrific letdowns.

 

HRam went from having a .907 OPS his previous 2 seasons to:

.717 year one and .776 in his 3+ yrs with the Sox

 

Pablo went from having a .794 OPS with SF to

.658 year one and .646 in his 2+ seasons with the Sox

 

Price went from being a horse 133 ERA+ in 866 IP in 4 yrs to

112 ERA+ year one and 75 IP year two and a 118 ERA+ in 4 seasons with us.

 

Eovaldi was no "horse" when we re-signed him, so giving us 110 IP over the first 2 seasons with us is no surprise, but the ERA+ of 90 sucks. It was 112 in 2018- not counting the playoffs.

 

The Sale deal has just begun, so the jury is still out. He still has 3-4 years left, buy year one saw zero IP'd.

 

We're basically oh for five on the "first 2-3 years" of all our last major 5 signings.

 

I was saying this just the other day to JD Martinez...

[moonslav59]

I was saying this just the other day to JD Martinez...

 

LOL.

 

How could I have forgotten JD?

 

(Maybe his 2020 season?)

 

Okay, so we are one for six.

[moonslav59]

Some predictions, which, let's face it, rarely come true when I make them.

 

Andrew Benintendi and Christian Vazquez are in their final week of games for the Red Sox.

 

Benintendi to the White Sox for Rodrigo Lopez is a trade that makes a ton of sense for both sides.

 

Vazquez will go to the Rays for a package that includes Kevin Kiermaier as the "bad contract" Bloom uses to up the return for a farm system and pitching staff he is obviously very familiar with. As Tampa has already taken multiple steps to replace Kiermaier (by acquiring both Manny Margot and Randy Arozarena), they would also clearly find this to be a good start.

 

While the free agent who clearly fills the biggest need for the Sox is Trevor Bauer, I have my doubts Bloom tries to sign him. Tampa is 222-157 (.585) since 2018, and the biggest external name Bloom has added to that staff is Charlie Morton (6.7 fWAR), who trails only their internally-developed Blake Snell (8.1 fWAR) for the team lead, but in one less season. I don't think adding an ace i going to be his style. But I do think he will spend...

 

So, we go with Plawecki, Grullon & Wong or pick up a catcher?

 

Who is the Charlie Morton of this winter's FA class?

[notin]

So, we go with Plawecki, Grullon & Wong or pick up a catcher?

 

Who is the Charlie Morton of this winter's FA class?

 

I think the Sox pick up a short term catcher on the market. They could go all in for Realmuto, I suppose. But if not, James McCann and former Bloom acquisition Mike Zunino top the list of suspects, along with dark horse Tyler Flowers.

 

I have no idea who this year's Charlie Morton aka Bloom Target is, if there is one. I never saw Martin Perez as a target for this past offseason. But it is possible that Bloom relies more on the SP he already has, which is a list that does include ERod and Sale, plus whoever he gets via trade (Lopez? Someone for Vazquez?), and then focuses on building up the Sox lackluster bullpen in to more of a team strength, or at least less of a liability. Liam Hendriks, Trevor Rosenthal, and the very underappreciated Trevor May seem like good candidates. Hector Rondon is struggling this year, but it also typically a very underrated reliever who has had a pretty good career..

[mvp 78]

So, we go with Plawecki, Grullon & Wong or pick up a catcher?

 

Who is the Charlie Morton of this winter's FA class?

 

The Rays throw some very mediocre guys out there at C. I wouldn't be surprised if they went with Plawecki as the starter. He's looked decent this year. He'll be fine even when his bat comes down to earth.