A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

No way do you get more than that for 1 year of Mookie.

 

So you think Price made no difference, despite his being 34 years old and owed $96 million?

 

If you're arguing they took him at half price for nothing, that is possible...

[mvp 78]

So you think Price made no difference, despite his being 34 years old and owed $96 million?

 

If you're arguing they took him at half price for nothing, that is possible...

 

Dodgers are paying the entire 96 now?

 

He had excess value at half the contract.

[mvp 78]

Bloom is high on Nick Pivetta...delaying his major league debut pushed back his FA to 2025.

 

He’s a big, physical, power pitcher,” Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said Aug. 21. “He’s got a really good fastball. Good breaking ball. He also has a changeup. A guy that’s shown the ability to carry a starter’s workload. And a lot of the underlying traits there have shown the potential for a lot more success than he’s enjoyed in terms of his results. Again, power pitcher that we think should be capable of holding down a rotation spot. Really feel like he’s a good fit going forward and that we’ve got a chance to help him reach a level he has not yet in his career despite his big stuff.”

 

It appears he trades away guys with limited upside for younger guys with more upside than shown. A good trader.

 

It won't be his debut, but Pivetta is a pretty big wild card.

[harmony]

I think a lot of teams would want Vaz. If we find some sort of salary offset, like the ones I mentioned a while back that is added to the return to us, maybe something can be found. I'm not saying it's a cinch.

 

Carrasco is not reliable, so I would not trade Vaz & Eovaldi for him.

This year Cleveland righthander Carlos Carrasco has posted 1.4 fWAR in 11 starts covering 62 innings while Nathan Eovaldi has posted 0.6 fWAR in eight starts covering 42.1 innings.

 

Eovaldi has made more than 30 starts in a season only once (way back in 2014) while Carrasco has made at least 30 starts three times.

 

Over the past two seasons Carrasco has tossed 142 innings in 34 appearances, including 23 starts, while Eovaldi has pitched 110 innings in 31 appearances, including 20 starts.

[notin]

Dodgers are paying the entire 96 now?

 

He had excess value at half the contract.

 

Did you stop reading after that first sentence?

[notin]

This year Cleveland righthander Carlos Carrasco has posted 1.4 fWAR in 11 starts covering 62 innings while Nathan Eovaldi has posted 0.6 fWAR in eight starts covering 42.1 innings.

 

Eovaldi has made more than 30 starts in a season only once (way back in 2014) while Carrasco has made at least 30 starts three times.

 

Over the past two seasons Carrasco has tossed 142 innings in 34 appearances, including 23 starts, while Eovaldi has pitched 110 innings in 31 appearances, including 20 starts.

 

True, but Carrasco has much more glaring health concerns than Eovaldi. In fact, he has to be number one on the list of "Surprising Non-Opt Outs" this year...

[harmony]

It's probably rarer to see a catcher like Vaz traded. They are hard to find.

 

While Chavis is not a prospect, including him in a deal may have the same affect.

Of the top six qualified catchers in fWAR over the past three seasons, four have been traded during that period:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=

 

Of the top 30 catchers with at least 100 plate appearances over the past three seasons, a majority have been traded:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=100&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=

[notin]

Of the top six qualified catchers in fWAR over the past three seasons, four have been traded during that period:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=

 

Of the top 30 catchers with at least 100 plate appearances over the past three seasons, a majority have been traded:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=100&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=

 

Probably worth pointing out that 21 catchers, including Vazquez, have more fWAR in that timeframe than James McCann.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=100&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=

 

 

Vazquez ranks fifth in fWAR in that time-frame, and the only catcher of the 4 ranked above him who has been traded is JT Realmuto, who was dealt by the small market Marlins as his arbitration years were winding down.

 

In fact, your count of 4 being traded seems off, as Grandal has not been traded anywhere since 2014. And Molina and Contreras have not been traded at all..

Edited September 21, 2020 by notin

[moonslav59]

Dodgers are paying the entire 96 now?

 

He had excess value at half the contract.

 

That's highly debatable.

 

I'm not saying the Price part of the deal could be viewed as a push or a plus for LA, but I don't think they wanted him, even at half "price."

 

[moonslav59]

This year Cleveland righthander Carlos Carrasco has posted 1.4 fWAR in 11 starts covering 62 innings while Nathan Eovaldi has posted 0.6 fWAR in eight starts covering 42.1 innings.

 

Eovaldi has made more than 30 starts in a season only once (way back in 2014) while Carrasco has made at least 30 starts three times.

 

Over the past two seasons Carrasco has tossed 142 innings in 34 appearances, including 23 starts, while Eovaldi has pitched 110 innings in 31 appearances, including 20 starts.

 

They both are unreliable.

 

I'm not sure what your point is.

[harmony]

Probably worth pointing out that 21 catchers, including Vazquez, have more fWAR in that timeframe than James McCann.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=100&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=

 

 

Vazquez ranks fifth in fWAR in that time-frame, and the only catcher of the 4 ranked above him who has been traded is JT Realmuto, who was dealt by the small market Marlins as his arbitration years were winding down.

 

In fact, your count of 4 being traded seems off, as Grandal has not been traded anywhere since 2014. And Molina and Contreras have not been traded at all..

I stand corrected on Yasmani Grandahl and James McCann, who switched teams as free agents.

 

Wilson Ramos was traded on July 31, 2018, and J.T. Realmuto was traded on February 7, 2019.

 

A majority of the 30 top catchers of the last three seasons have changed teams during that period, an indication that the market is fluid.

[mvp 78]

Did you stop reading after that first sentence?

 

I read it. Maybe your editor should have left out the first sentence if it wasn't relevant to your overall point?

[mvp 78]

That's highly debatable.

 

I'm not saying the Price part of the deal could be viewed as a push or a plus for LA, but I don't think they wanted him, even at half "price."

 

 

If the Dodgers didn't want him, Bloom would have shopped Price to other teams. It's not like pitching (and pitching that is guaranteed to eat innings) is easy to come by.

[harmony]

They both are unreliable.

 

I'm not sure what your point is.

Except for 2019, Carlos Carrasco has been reliable. Even with his shortened 2019 season, Carrasco ranks among the Top 30 in innings pitched since 2015. No pitcher has made more starts than Carrasco so far this season.

[mvp 78]

Except for 2019, Carlos Carrasco has been reliable. Even with his shortened 2019 season, Carrasco ranks among the Top 30 in innings pitched since 2015. No pitcher has made more starts than Carrasco so far this season.

 

If you only look at Carrasco's bad seasons, he's very unreliable.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

No way do you get more than that for 1 year of Mookie.

 

Maybe not, but we now know LA was thinking more like 13 years of Mookie. If Friedman was willing to make that kind of investment -- making Betts the Face of the Franchise for the next Dodger decade -- then he could've been pressed to add a pitching prospect... if Bloom had any leverage (which he did not, because of Price).

[moonslav59]

If the Dodgers didn't want him, Bloom would have shopped Price to other teams. It's not like pitching (and pitching that is guaranteed to eat innings) is easy to come by.

 

Nobody wanted Price at $32M x 3.

 

I doubt anyone would have signed him for $16M x 3, last winter, so why would anyone trade for him?

 

 

[mvp 78]

I doubt anyone would have signed him for $16M x 3, last winter, so why would anyone trade for him?

 

 

 

I disagree with this with every fiber of my being.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Off topic:

 

Just wanted to send kudos out to Josh Donaldson for speaking out about the umpiring in MLB as being pathetic and free of accountability. IOW, pretty much what I and other posters on this forum have been saying for the last few years.

Will his speaking out change anything? Yup, it will reduce the amount of cash in his pocket after the fine, but, as for improving the umpiring; not a chance.

Edited September 21, 2020 by SPLENDIDSPLINTER

[notin]

I disagree with this with every fiber of my being.

 

Should I say it again?

[Slasher9]

Robot Umps Now!

[moonslav59]

I disagree with this with every fiber of my being.

 

Maybe someday, one GM will talk in detail about the working of the deal.

 

I could be wrong. I have been before, but I just don't see that kind of value in Price at his age and with his injury history.

 

Maybe $16M x 1 or $28M x 2 would be the highest I think anyone would go, but $16M x 3?

 

Most fibers in my being think no.

[Bellhorn04]

I disagree with this with every fiber of my being.

 

I think if JA Happ could get $17M * 2 and Charlie Morton could get $15M * 2, Price could probably get $16M * 3.

[moonslav59]

Maybe not, but we now know LA was thinking more like 13 years of Mookie. If Friedman was willing to make that kind of investment -- making Betts the Face of the Franchise for the next Dodger decade -- then he could've been pressed to add a pitching prospect... if Bloom had any leverage (which he did not, because of Price).

 

That's what I think. Bloom insisted on LA taking Price, just like we insisted the Dodgers take Crawford to get AG.

 

Had we not included Price, we might have gotten Verdugo and Strippling or Gonsolin. It appears we could have gotten Maeda but chose not to.

[moonslav59]

I think if JA Happ could get $17M * 2 and Charlie Morton could get $15M * 2, Price could probably get $16M * 3.

 

Morton was the same age as Price and had started 55 games in his previous 2 seasons with an ERA+ of 113 and 133. He got less money and less years than $16M x 3.

 

Happ re-signed with the Yanks in 2018 after starting 56 games in his previous 2 years and 88 in his previous 3 years. His ERA+ was 163, 143 and 193 those 3 years. He was 35 when he signed- a little older than Price was when traded.

 

Price started 52 games in the 2 years before being traded. He started 63 in his previous 3 seasons. His ERA+ was 76, 177, 128. He was 34 when traded.

 

I'm not getting all the Price love after he was almost constantly bashed his whole time here, except for the last 2 rounds of the 2018 playoffs.

 

Previous 3 year totals:

 

Price: 122 ERA+, 63 GS/358 IP

Happ: 125 ERA+, 88 GS/518 IP

Morton: 121 ERA+, 59 GS/331 IP (was injured 3 years before signing.)

-- 2 yrs 123 ERA+ 55 GS/314 IP

 

Sure, some injury prone pitchers have gotten wild deals that seem unfathomable, and maybe some GM would take a chance like that, but I'd take the Morton and Happ deals over a 3 year deal for Price.

[Bellhorn04]

Morton was the same age as Price and had started 55 games in his previous 2 seasons with an ERA+ of 113 and 133. He got less money and less years than $16M x 3.

 

Happ re-signed with the Yanks in 2018 after starting 56 games in his previous 2 years and 88 in his previous 3 years. His ERA+ was 163, 143 and 193 those 3 years. He was 35 when he signed- a little older than Price was when traded.

 

Price started 52 games in the 2 years before being traded. He started 63 in his previous 3 seasons. His ERA+ was 76, 177, 128. He was 34 when traded.

 

I'm not getting all the Price love after he was almost constantly bashed his whole time here, except for the last 2 rounds of the 2018 playoffs.

 

Previous 3 year totals:

 

Price: 122 ERA+, 63 GS/358 IP

Happ: 125 ERA+, 88 GS/518 IP

Morton: 121 ERA+, 59 GS/331 IP (was injured 3 years before signing.)

-- 2 yrs 123 ERA+ 55 GS/314 IP

 

Sure, some injury prone pitchers have gotten wild deals that seem unfathomable, and maybe some GM would take a chance like that, but I'd take the Morton and Happ deals over a 3 year deal for Price.

 

Even if you prefer the Morton and Happ deals, they're obviously in the same ballpark with the one for Price. Happ's deal included a vesting option which could have made it 3 years.

 

And Price has better career numbers than those two.

 

16 * 3 for Price would be a little questionable, but certainly not outlandish.

[moonslav59]

Even if you prefer the Morton and Happ deals, they're obviously in the same ballpark with the one for Price. Happ's deal included a vesting option which could have made it 3 years.

 

And Price has better career numbers than those two.

 

16 * 3 for Price would be a little questionable, but certainly not outlandish.

 

I never said outlandish.

 

I also think what you've done over the last 2-4 years means more than what you did 4-10 years ago. Sure, career number matter, but IMO, recent numbers matter more. Durability matters, too. The third year matters at that age.

 

I agreed he might get $15M/1 or $28M/2, but I think $45M/3 is more than probably any team would offer. Yes, it only takes one GM, and there are countless of examples of injury-prone pitchers being signed to crazy deals, but maybe not many at age 34.

[cp176]

So you put bait out there for the purpose of getting angry at people who take it? Nice.

 

Of course, you did receive multiple responses. not sure why mine was singled out so much except that I suggested you ignored history. It certainly can't be because I said something detrimental about Dombrowski; I didn't mention him at all, and didn't even discuss anything he did.

 

But if you think Henry is just going to spend without limits, history has shown that to clearly be not true. And it happened before this season as well. Cherington took over a team in 2012 and was not allowed to spend to the point that he had to deal Marco Scutaro in order to add Cody Ross. Neither of those players had big money contracts. And he dialed back spending again prior to the 2017 season, when the Red Sox reset the tax burden a year prior to the Yankees and Dodgers, leaving the Sox as the sole big money bidders for the biggest name on the market in JD Martinez.

 

When it comes to spending, as far as I can tell, Henry just doesn't want to keep repeatedly paying luxury tax payments, and wants to occasionally dial back and get under the limit for a single season so as to reduce his non-value added payments. Now in between those resets, his budget can be very accommodating...

 

Oh notin just stop. I'm not angry with you or anyone else. If being called a jackass is offensive to you, I apologize. In my frenzied little circle of friends, it is a term of endearment.

[Bellhorn04]

I never said outlandish.

 

I also think what you've done over the last 2-4 years means more than what you did 4-10 years ago. Sure, career number matter, but IMO, recent numbers matter more. Durability matters, too. The third year matters at that age.

 

I agreed he might get $15M/1 or $28M/2, but I think $45M/3 is more than probably any team would offer. Yes, it only takes one GM, and there are countless of examples of injury-prone pitchers being signed to crazy deals, but maybe not many at age 34.

 

Did you count Price's 26 innings in the 2018 postseason?

 

Did you account for the fact they shut him down early in 2019 because the team was out of it and there was no sense putting him at risk in meaningless games?

 

He really only had that one injury-plagued season in 2017.

 

In 2014-2016 he pitched mega-innings.

 

Calling him "injury prone" is definitely overstating it.

[Bellhorn04]

Charlie Morton had pitched more than 170 innings once in his whole career when the Rays signed him. Once - his career best 171.2 innings way back in 2011!

 

A real horse!

Edited September 22, 2020 by Bellhorn04