A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

I don't think that slightly peculiar trade negates my point...

 

moon thinks we could land a top starting pitcher with years of control in return for Vazquez plus Eovaldi or something equivalent. I just can't see another team doing that. Top starting pitchers with years of control are precious commodities.

 

We know the Rays were interested in Vaz, and it was rumored they might be willing to give up a pitching prospect (or two?). That one made sense.

 

I think Eovaldi is ours. Any trade of him is not likely to bring back a useful piece, just an expensive one. And then the Sox have to replace Eovaldi.

 

I say move him to the bullpen and make him a high leverage reliever. Maybe the reduced workload will work out better for his durability. And let's face it, if the Sox have one area that needs more attention than starting rotation, it's the bullpen...

[moonslav59]

I challenge you to find an example of a team trading a top starter for something other than salary relief or prospects.

 

I never said a top starter. I said one better than Eovaldi by the value added from Vaz and or Chavis. That's likely not a "top starter."

 

A trade I remember:

 

Giants Trade Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano & Boof Bonser for A.J. Pierzynski

 

Also, Buckner for Eckersley, Dan Haren for Carlos Gonzalez, Sutcliffe for Joe Carter., Ferggie Jenkins for Bill Madlock, Kevin Brown for D Lee +, Nolan Ryan for Jim Fergosi, Steve Carlton for Rick Wise.

Edited September 21, 2020 by moonslav59

[notin]

I never said a top starter. I said one better than Eovaldi by the value added from Vaz and or Chavis. That's likely not a "top starter."

 

A trade I remember:

 

Giants Trade Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano & Boof Bonser for A.J. Pierzynski

 

Also, Buckner for Eckersley.

 

The premise that the Sox could add Chavis and Vazquez to Eovaldi to upgrade over Eovaldi seems like a longshot to me. Teams would have to be very desperate to get hold of Chavis and Vazquez. Now Vazquez might have some appeal, but I don't think a one-dimensional role player like Chavis is enough of a difference maker to convince another team to downgrade their pitching.

 

Detroit And Cleveland are the best bets here, as both have serious pitching depth and not really much in the way of offenive players in the pipeline. But I do not think either is all that excited by Vazquez and Chavis to the point where the Sox get an upgrade over Eovaldi. Although if the upgrade is in durability only, maybe it can happen. But I don't see with whom. The best option on these teams might be Carrasco, who is better than Eovaldi, but really not any more durable...

Edited September 21, 2020 by notin

[moonslav59]

I think Eovaldi is ours. Any trade of him is not likely to bring back a useful piece, just an expensive one. And then the Sox have to replace Eovaldi.

 

I say move him to the bullpen and make him a high leverage reliever. Maybe the reduced workload will work out better for his durability. And let's face it, if the Sox have one area that needs more attention than starting rotation, it's the bullpen...

 

I doubt we trade Eovaldi, and I don't think it will be easy to find takers, even by sweetening the pot with Vaz and.or Chavis, but many teams need a catcher badly. We might see the downgrade from Vaz to Plawecki, Grullon & Wong as worth the upgrade at SP'er.

 

I'm not thinking we'll get a top SP'er. My position was we might get a more reliable and better pitcher-maybe one that costs as much as Eovaldi + Vaz.

[moonslav59]

The premise that the Sox could add Chavis and Vazquez to Eovaldi to upgrade over Eovaldi seems like a longshot to me. Teams would have to be very desperate to get hold of Chavis and Vazquez. Now Vazquez might have some appeal, but I don't think a one-dimensional role player like Chavis is enough of a difference maker to convince another team to downgrade their pitching.

 

Detroit And Cleveland are the best bets here, as both have serious pitching depth and not really much in the way of offenive players in the pipeline. But I do not think either is all that excited by Vazquez and Chavis to the point where the Sox get an upgrade over Eovaldi. Although if the upgrade is in durability only, maybe it can happen. But I don't see with whom. The best option on these teams might be Carrasco, who is better than Eovaldi, but really not any more durable...

 

I think a lot of teams would want Vaz. If we find some sort of salary offset, like the ones I mentioned a while back that is added to the return to us, maybe something can be found. I'm not saying it's a cinch.

 

Carrasco is not reliable, so I would not trade Vaz & Eovaldi for him.

[moonslav59]

None of these suggestions are for "top pitchers," except maybe Syndergaard (but taking Familai's deal is a major salary offset) and some are for prospect pitchers:

 

These teams have the lowest catcher WAR 2019-2020 combined:

(Vaz, Chavis & Eovaldi are valued at 13.1- here is close to equal value)

-3.9 TEX (Odor -26, LeClerc 16.8, Taveras 12.6 & Hernandez C-1B minors)

-3.5 DET (Zimmerman -4.5, Boyd 5.7 & Goodrum 12.0))

-2.6 COL (Blackmon -11.6, Freeland 16.8 & Amador 2B minors 7.6)

0.4 LAA (Upton -47, Canning 17.8 & Marsh OF minors 36.0)

0.7 NYM (Syndergaard, Familia & Greene OF minors)

0.9 STL (Fowler -19.8, Gallegos 26 & Reyes 5.3)

1.3 WSH (Castro -2.2, Rainey 10.7 or Suero 9.9 & de la Rosa OF minors 2.6)

1.8 TBR (Kiermaier -6.5 & Baz +19.5)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

There are just not that many catchers with Vazquez' wheels that can bat leadoff in the big leagues.

[Bellhorn04]

I never said a top starter. I said one better than Eovaldi by the value added from Vaz and or Chavis. That's likely not a "top starter."

 

A trade I remember:

 

Giants Trade Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano & Boof Bonser for A.J. Pierzynski

 

Nathan was a reliever.

Liriano & Bonser were prospects.

[Bellhorn04]

I think Eovaldi is ours. Any trade of him is not likely to bring back a useful piece, just an expensive one. And then the Sox have to replace Eovaldi.

 

I say move him to the bullpen and make him a high leverage reliever. Maybe the reduced workload will work out better for his durability. And let's face it, if the Sox have one area that needs more attention than starting rotation, it's the bullpen...

 

The rotation still needs more attention IMO, although its close.

 

I'd give Eovaldi one more shot as a starter before converting him to the pen.

[notin]

I think a lot of teams would want Vaz. If we find some sort of salary offset, like the ones I mentioned a while back that is added to the return to us, maybe something can be found. I'm not saying it's a cinch.

 

Carrasco is not reliable, so I would not trade Vaz & Eovaldi for him.

 

Even then, I think you're minimizing a return for Vazquez in order to dump Eovaldi, which is the exact opposite of the strategy we've seen Bloom try to employ...

[notin]

There are just not that many catchers with Vazquez' wheels that can bat leadoff in the big leagues.

 

But there are plenty of them with his career .308 OBP that prevents him from hitting there...

[notin]

None of these suggestions are for "top pitchers," except maybe Syndergaard (but taking Familai's deal is a major salary offset) and some are for prospect pitchers:

 

These teams have the lowest catcher WAR 2019-2020 combined:

(Vaz, Chavis & Eovaldi are valued at 13.1- here is close to equal value)

-3.9 TEX (Odor -26, LeClerc 16.8, Taveras 12.6 & Hernandez C-1B minors)

-3.5 DET (Zimmerman -4.5, Boyd 5.7 & Goodrum 12.0))

-2.6 COL (Blackmon -11.6, Freeland 16.8 & Amador 2B minors 7.6)

0.4 LAA (Upton -47, Canning 17.8 & Marsh OF minors 36.0)

0.7 NYM (Syndergaard, Familia & Greene OF minors)

0.9 STL (Fowler -19.8, Gallegos 26 & Reyes 5.3)

1.3 WSH (Castro -2.2, Rainey 10.7 or Suero 9.9 & de la Rosa OF minors 2.6)

1.8 TBR (Kiermaier -6.5 & Baz +19.5)

 

And how many of those pitchers are established upgrades over Eovaldi?

 

Some of them have the same durability issues he has, like Reyes and Canning.

 

And Syndergaard can probably be had for less, given that he is likely to miss half of next season and then he reaches free agency a year from now...

[cp176]

Thinking Henry is not concerned what he spends on the Sox is just flat out ignoring history. And in this case, some extremely recent history...

 

Obviously i posted that comment to see if you Dombrowski haters, which you indeed are, would take the bait. Honestly I hope that bloom succeeds. i'm just not quite ready to give him the keys to the palace just yet simply because it appears that his philosophy with respect to dealing with a small market franchise coincides with yours.

Now you suggesting that I ignore history of any kind crosses the line and puts you squarely in "jackass" sights. It's my lane so to speak. For the record, I'm not even sure why Dombrowski's name keeps coming up. I think that you haters would be better off if you just let it go.

[notin]

Obviously i posted that comment to see if you Dombrowski haters, which you indeed are, would take the bait. Honestly I hope that bloom succeeds. i'm just not quite ready to give him the keys to the palace just yet simply because it appears that his philosophy with respect to dealing with a small market franchise coincides with yours.

Now you suggesting that I ignore history of any kind crosses the line and puts you squarely in "jackass" sights. It's my lane so to speak. For the record, I'm not even sure why Dombrowski's name keeps coming up. I think that you haters would be better off if you just let it go.

 

So you put bait out there for the purpose of getting angry at people who take it? Nice.

 

Of course, you did receive multiple responses. not sure why mine was singled out so much except that I suggested you ignored history. It certainly can't be because I said something detrimental about Dombrowski; I didn't mention him at all, and didn't even discuss anything he did.

 

But if you think Henry is just going to spend without limits, history has shown that to clearly be not true. And it happened before this season as well. Cherington took over a team in 2012 and was not allowed to spend to the point that he had to deal Marco Scutaro in order to add Cody Ross. Neither of those players had big money contracts. And he dialed back spending again prior to the 2017 season, when the Red Sox reset the tax burden a year prior to the Yankees and Dodgers, leaving the Sox as the sole big money bidders for the biggest name on the market in JD Martinez.

 

When it comes to spending, as far as I can tell, Henry just doesn't want to keep repeatedly paying luxury tax payments, and wants to occasionally dial back and get under the limit for a single season so as to reduce his non-value added payments. Now in between those resets, his budget can be very accommodating...

[notin]

Obviously i posted that comment to see if you Dombrowski haters, which you indeed are, would take the bait. Honestly I hope that bloom succeeds. i'm just not quite ready to give him the keys to the palace just yet simply because it appears that his philosophy with respect to dealing with a small market franchise coincides with yours.

Now you suggesting that I ignore history of any kind crosses the line and puts you squarely in "jackass" sights. It's my lane so to speak. For the record, I'm not even sure why Dombrowski's name keeps coming up. I think that you haters would be better off if you just let it go.

 

 

 

Actually, we don't even know if he would run this like a small market team. Right now, you can't say that he is because, despite how awful this team is, we still have one of the largest payrolls in MLB. What he is doing now is not "small market" baseball; it's necessary maintenance after a period of overspending...

[moonslav59]

Even then, I think you're minimizing a return for Vazquez in order to dump Eovaldi, which is the exact opposite of the strategy we've seen Bloom try to employ...

 

He minimized the return for Betts by including Price (IMO).

[moonslav59]

And how many of those pitchers are established upgrades over Eovaldi?

 

Some of them have the same durability issues he has, like Reyes and Canning.

 

And Syndergaard can probably be had for less, given that he is likely to miss half of next season and then he reaches free agency a year from now...

 

Not many, but the trades gave us upgrades at other positions and/or saved us some money that could be used to improve a FA pitcher signing to a higher quality.

 

I will say, I'd rather have almost any of these pitchers over Eovaldi, except maybe Zimmerman and Syndergaard (I did not realize he had just 1 year left.)

[moonslav59]

Actually, we don't even know if he would run this like a small market team. Right now, you can't say that he is because, despite how awful this team is, we still have one of the largest payrolls in MLB. What he is doing now is not "small market" baseball; it's necessary maintenance after a period of overspending...

 

I get your point, but Bloom is not getting good production from some of the big contracts on this team, and with the limited budget he was given, this year, he has made deals like a small market would do.

 

The real test will come if and when Henry opens the wallet. Let's see what he does, then.

 

Hopefully, he will make the types of additions he made in TB, but will be able to afford to do more of them and maaybe get better ones by offering them a little more than he could do with the Rays.

 

I doubt he sticks to a small market approach, but some sort of middle ground might work best.

[notin]

Not many, but the trades gave us upgrades at other positions and/or saved us some money that could be used to improve a FA pitcher signing to a higher quality.

 

I will say, I'd rather have almost any of these pitchers over Eovaldi, except maybe Zimmerman and Syndergaard (I did not realize he had just 1 year left.)

 

THe only real problem I have with Eovaldi, and I think I have been hs biggest critic on this board, is his complete lack of durability. From a talent perspective, he is a marvel. Not many people can throw 99mph as frequently as he does. And the ones who do are usually complete freaks, like Randy Johnson.

 

I mean, if your attic was infested with birds and you made some calls to recitfy this problem, and Nathan Eovaldi showed up at your house, you probably wouldn't think "Why is Nathan Eovaldi here to get rid of those birds?" At best, you might think "Hey, my exterminator looks an awful lot like Nathan Eovaldi. But I suppose that's true for a lot of handymen."

 

Now if the 6'11" spectacularly ugly Randy Johnson showed up at your house in the same context, you would easily recognize him right away, and then legitimately fear that he was going to rid your attic of birds with a steady stream of 95mph sliders that caused the individual avian interlopers to explode in a maelstrom of feathers and pigeon innards, leaving a mess far, far worse than the birds themselves.

 

But with Nathan, you might only know it was him if, after removing all the birds from your attic, he managed to injure his elbow and was unable to remove any more birds for the rest of the year. Which, of course, would probably also be the case with Anthony Reyes, except that he removes those birds a lot more cheaply.

 

Somewhere in there is an actual point. Oh yeah, Eovaldi is a mega-talented pitcher who simply cannot stay healthy. And that can be a big problem for the pitching-depleted Sox that is very likely to continue into next season. Also, do not hire Randy Johnson for household tasks...

[moonslav59]

THe only real problem I have with Eovaldi, and I think I have been hs biggest critic on this board, is his complete lack of durability. From a talent perspective, he is a marvel. Not many people can throw 99mph as frequently as he does. And the ones who do are usually complete freaks, like Randy Johnson.

 

I mean, if your attic was infested with birds and you made some calls to recitfy this problem, and Nathan Eovaldi showed up at your house, you probably wouldn't think "Why is Nathan Eovaldi here to get rid of those birds?" At best, you might think "Hey, my exterminator looks an awful lot like Nathan Eovaldi. But I suppose that's true for a lot of handymen."

 

Now if the 6'11" spectacularly ugly Randy Johnson showed up at your house in the same context, you would easily recognize him right away, and then legitimately fear that he was going to rid your attic of birds with a steady stream of 95mph sliders that caused the individual avian interlopers to explode in a maelstrom of feathers and pigeon innards, leaving a mess far, far worse than the birds themselves.

 

But with Nathan, you might only know it was him if, after removing all the birds from your attic, he managed to injure his elbow and was unable to remove any more birds for the rest of the year. Which, of course, would probably also be the case with Anthony Reyes, except that he removes those birds a lot more cheaply.

 

Somewhere in there is an actual point. Oh yeah, Eovaldi is a mega-talented pitcher who simply cannot stay healthy. And that can be a big problem for the pitching-depleted Sox that is very likely to continue into next season. Also, do not hire Randy Johnson for household tasks...

 

My whole point is based on finding a way to get someone more reliable by adding others to the trade.

 

I'm not expecting an ace- just durability.

[Bellhorn04]

My whole point is based on finding a way to get someone more reliable by adding others to the trade.

 

I'm not expecting an ace- just durability.

 

So which starters are you thinking of, exactly?

[mvp 78]

He minimized the return for Betts by including Price (IMO).

 

You think Bloom could get more than Verdugo/Downs/Wong straight up for Mookie?

[notin]

You think Bloom could get more than Verdugo/Downs/Wong straight up for Mookie?

 

I think he could have. But how much more is pure speculation...

[moonslav59]

I'm not saying this site has the best value numbers, but who on this list do you think is "over-valued?"

 

Mine are in red.

 

83.9 Devers

62.3 Verdugo

33.7 Bogaerts

26.4 Downs

22.2 Casas

19.7 Dalbec

17.6 Chavis

14.4 Vazquez

12.4 Mata

12.1 Duran

10.5 D Hern

9.0 ERod (due to injury)

8.5 Jimenez

8.5 Taylor

6.0 Lugo

5.6 Perez

4.9 Chatham

4.8 Pivetta

4.5 Potts

3.8 Song

3.6 Beni

3.0 Murphy

 

 

[mvp 78]

I think he could have. But how much more is pure speculation...

 

No way do you get more than that for 1 year of Mookie.

[moonslav59]

You think Bloom could get more than Verdugo/Downs/Wong straight up for Mookie?

 

Slightly more, yes. Maybe Verdugo/Downs and Graterol/Maeda

[moonslav59]

No way do you get more than that for 1 year of Mookie.

 

Do you think LA asked for Price and $16M per year?

 

If no, wouldn't you expect something in return, even if minor?

[mvp 78]

Do you think LA asked for Price and $16M per year?

 

Yes, the asked for Price. That's why they were ok with moving on from Maeda.

[moonslav59]

Yes, the asked for Price. That's why they were ok with moving on from Maeda.

 

You know they asked for Price or think they did?

 

It was my impression the Sox insisted on them talking Price and the negotiations were mostly about how much money we had to give them.

 

(The Maeda for Graterol deal was made after the initial deal fell through, so it's hard to argue they had that deal planned, knowing they were getting Price.)

[Nick]

Bloom is high on Nick Pivetta...delaying his major league debut pushed back his FA to 2025.

 

He’s a big, physical, power pitcher,” Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said Aug. 21. “He’s got a really good fastball. Good breaking ball. He also has a changeup. A guy that’s shown the ability to carry a starter’s workload. And a lot of the underlying traits there have shown the potential for a lot more success than he’s enjoyed in terms of his results. Again, power pitcher that we think should be capable of holding down a rotation spot. Really feel like he’s a good fit going forward and that we’ve got a chance to help him reach a level he has not yet in his career despite his big stuff.”

 

It appears he trades away guys with limited upside for younger guys with more upside than shown. A good trader.