A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[Kimmi]

I actually am. To a point.

 

Bauer might wind up getting a contract like Price’s. And like Price’s deal, it will work out the first couple seasons.

 

I’m not so sure Realmuto commands a 7 year deal. He might, but catchers typically don’t get anywhere near that. Even 5 is almost unheard of.

 

But Realmuto is no ordinary catcher. He’s a former shortstop turned catcher who, in the event his deal is too long, would probably still be able to handle a corner INF or corner OF position adequately.

 

Five years? A no-brainer. 6 or 7 starts giving me pause...

 

It's already being speculated that the Phillies are willing to go 6 years at an AAV of about $23 million. I would not try to match or beat that. I'm hesitant to do even 5 years. I would love to have him on our team, but I think it's going to take 6 or 7 years.

 

We'll see. Maybe the market just won't be there.

[Kimmi]

My point was that people here seem to think trading Eovaldi is nuts, but when we speak of his value to other teams, he's worthless (actually negative).

 

Same thing with Price. Many hated that we traded him away and paid half his salary... like he's worth $15M a year (about what Eovaldi is being paid).

 

Trading Eovaldi and not getting starting pitching back is nuts. The suggestion to swap bad contracts with Odor is nuts.

 

If Eovaldi can be packaged with another player or players so that we upgrade in the pitching department, it might make sense.

[moonslav59]

Trading Eovaldi and not getting starting pitching back is nuts. The suggestion to swap bad contracts with Odor is nuts.

 

If Eovaldi can be packaged with another player or players so that we upgrade in the pitching department, it might make sense.

 

Look at my suggested Rangers offer:

 

Eovaldi, Vaz & Chavis

for

Odor -26, LeClerc 16.8, Taveras 12.6 & Hernandez C-1B minors

[moonslav59]

Trading Eovaldi and not getting starting pitching back is nuts. The suggestion to swap bad contracts with Odor is nuts.

 

If Eovaldi can be packaged with another player or players so that we upgrade in the pitching department, it might make sense.

 

Also, a straight up trade of Eovaldi for Odor would save us about $9M a year. Add that to the money we were planning on spending for pitchers and the upgrade could work out.

 

If Eovaldi keeps getting hurt, we lose nothing.

[moonslav59]

It's already being speculated that the Phillies are willing to go 6 years at an AAV of about $23 million. I would not try to match or beat that. I'm hesitant to do even 5 years. I would love to have him on our team, but I think it's going to take 6 or 7 years.

 

We'll see. Maybe the market just won't be there.

 

I understand your hesitancy to sign big contracts, but every ring we've ever won was dependent on at least one large and long contract- usually 2-3.

[oldtimer]

I understand your hesitancy to sign big contracts, but every ring we've ever won was dependent on at least one large and long contract- usually 2-3.

 

I don't like long contracts any more than Kimmi. Between the long expensive contracts and the damage to our minors we have put ourselves in the yo-yo position. Bloom is aiming to make us more consistently good. So far, he has made mainly positive moves despite being put in a tough negotiating position.

 

We have a solid draft position coming, we have a group of players to cherry pick from and then to try to get some value in trades of the rest and we have considerable financial resources to bring to bear. 2021 should put us in a position to compete and we may be able to become very competitive in 2022.

[moonslav59]

I don't like long contracts any more than Kimmi. Between the long expensive contracts and the damage to our minors we have put ourselves in the yo-yo position. Bloom is aiming to make us more consistently good. So far, he has made mainly positive moves despite being put in a tough negotiating position.

 

We have a solid draft position coming, we have a group of players to cherry pick from and then to try to get some value in trades of the rest and we have considerable financial resources to bring to bear. 2021 should put us in a position to compete and we may be able to become very competitive in 2022.

 

I'm all for building up the farm, but there comes a time when a big deal is needed to put a team over the top.

 

Can teams win without doing that? Yes, but we never have.

[harmony]

I'm all for building up the farm, but there comes a time when a big deal is needed to put a team over the top.

 

Can teams win without doing that? Yes, but we never have.

Going from 20-34 to "over the top" is a tall order with a shallow starting rotation topped by three question marks.

 

Or not.

[Nick]

I'm all for building up the farm, but there comes a time when a big deal is needed to put a team over the top.

 

Can teams win without doing that? Yes, but we never have.

 

2021 is not the year a big deal would put us over the top. Our current team has gaping holes not dissimilar to swiss cheese.

[moonslav59]

2021 is not the year a big deal would put us over the top. Our current team has gaping holes not dissimilar to swiss cheese.

 

I never said to win it all in 2021.

 

Why would signing someone to a long deal, this winter, be only about winning in 2021?

 

I'm not saying we should or will sign a big name, but we do want to get better in 2021 without harming our chances in 2022 and beyond. If we can find one key piece, this winter, why put it off?

 

Maybe Bloom doesn't see a keeper, and puts it off. I'm fine with that and trust he knows what he's doing.

[harmony]

2021 is not the year a big deal would put us over the top. Our current team has gaping holes not dissimilar to swiss cheese.

The Red Sox have lost Mookie Betts, Rick Porcello, David Price, Mitch Moreland, Brock Holt and Brandon Workman from a 2019 club that won 84 games. Chris Sale, Eduardo Rodriguez and Nathan Eovaldi have question marks. The prognoses for Andrew Benintendi and J.D. Martinez are unclear and Jackie Bradley Jr. may depart as a free agent.

 

Chaim Bloom has done admirable job landing Alex Verdugo and Martin Perez (not to mention Kevin Plawecki, Christian Arroyo and Jonathan Arauz). Despite flashes from Bobby Dalbec and Tanner Houck, Bloom has a long ways to go to reach the talent level of the 2019 team.

Edited September 21, 2020 by harmony

[Nick]

I never said to win it all in 2021.

 

Why would signing someone to a long deal, this winter, be only about winning in 2021?

 

I'm not saying we should or will sign a big name, but we do want to get better in 2021 without harming our chances in 2022 and beyond. If we can find one key piece, this winter, why put it off?

 

Maybe Bloom doesn't see a keeper, and puts it off. I'm fine with that and trust he knows what he's doing.

 

Why waste an expensive acquisition's first year deal on a mediocre team? Do you have someone in mind that you want to give a 5-7 deal to at the end of this year? Name a free agent that will get us over the hump? Just curious Moon.

[moonslav59]

Why waste an expensive acquisition's first year deal on a mediocre team? Do you have someone in mind that you want to give a 5-7 deal to at the end of this year? Name a free agent that will get us over the hump? Just curious Moon.

 

No, I don't, and my original statement was about Bloom possibly identifying someone he thinks can be a big value for the longterm. I don't pretend to know more than him, and I trust he is a good evaluator. Maybe he doesn't see anyone like that on this winter's FA list, but if he does, I don't see why waiting another year helps.

 

We likely need 2-3 pretty big named players or under the radar types that become big additions. My thoughts are about the idea that waiting to get them all at once might be harder than picking up the players we really want when they become available. Maybe it's one a year for 3 years, none this year, 2 next year and 1 in 2023.

 

I'm just thinking we have the budget space, and if Bloom sees someone he likes, this winter, I'd say go for it.

 

Personally, I'm not high on Bauer, Realmuto or Springer, but if Bloom likes one and goes for it, I won't judge him harshly, except maybe in hindsight. His plan may be to sign some very decent FAs, but not the big 3 or 4. He may have to sign them to 3-5 year deals at pretty decent numbers. Spreading the risk makes sense, and keeping the deals under 4-5 years does, too, but who knows who we can get on non long term deals.

 

Again, any big signing or addition we make this winter would not be about winning it all in 2021. It would be about the longer term with the added bonus of making us more fun to watch in 2021 and maybe even competing for a playoff slot.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox have lost Mookie Betts, Rick Porcello, David Price, Mitch Moreland, Brock Holt and Brandon Workman from a 2019 club that won 84 games. Chris Sale, Eduardo Rodriguez and Nathan Eovaldi have question marks. The prognoses for Andrew Benintendi and J.D. Martinez are unclear and Jackie Bradley Jr. may depart as a free agent.

 

Chaim Bloom has done admirable job landing Alex Verdugo and Martin Perez (not to mention Kevin Plawecki, Christian Arroyo and Jonathan Arauz). Despite flashes from Bobby Dalbec and Tanner Houck, Bloom has a long ways to go to reach the talent level of the 2019 team.

 

Replacing some of the names on the list of 2019 departees is addition by subtraction.

 

I'm not expecting a ring in 2021, but 2022 is not out of the question, if we spend up to the limit line and maybe the over it for 2022. (We also lose Pedey's deal after 2021.) We could be looking at $80-100M/yr we can spend on FAs over the next 2 years. If Bloom is as thrifty as we think he can be, that's a lot of added talent to put with Devers, JD, a healthy Sale (2022), Bogey, Vaz, and maybe Eovaldi. We'd only need a few of our players & farm hands to play key roles- maybe DHern, Dalbec, Houck, Arroyo/Munoz/Downs/Chavis, among others.

[harmony]

Agreed. At best, we may see this:

 

$25M/yr SP

$15M Closer

$13M/yr SP

$7M RP

$6M CF

$4M SP

 

$70M total - still under the tax

 

We could add about $20M and stay under the second threshold.

An overreliance on free agent contracts could hamstring a franchise for years ... unless the team can flip the players for prospects when the club falls out of contention.

[cp176]

I don't like long contracts any more than Kimmi. Between the long expensive contracts and the damage to our minors we have put ourselves in the yo-yo position. Bloom is aiming to make us more consistently good. So far, he has made mainly positive moves despite being put in a tough negotiating position.

 

We have a solid draft position coming, we have a group of players to cherry pick from and then to try to get some value in trades of the rest and we have considerable financial resources to bring to bear. 2021 should put us in a position to compete and we may be able to become very competitive in 2022.

 

It is pretty obvious what the sentiment seems to be on this board as to how and how much money the red sox should be willing to spend for any and all contracts. That fact is fairly clear but I will say that if one of blooms goals is to make us more consistently good , I would suggest that he is simply adopting the philosophy of every GM that we have had for some time now. We have been consistently good. There remain many ways to skin a cat. I will continue to be that guy who doesn't really think that John Henry is as concerned about his play money as the rest of you. We will see i guess what the off season brings.

[Kimmi]

I understand your hesitancy to sign big contracts, but every ring we've ever won was dependent on at least one large and long contract- usually 2-3.

 

I understand that signing a big contract is probably inevitable. I don't think the timing is right for the Sox to make that type of deal this offseason. The large contract should be the rare exception, not the norm.

[Bellhorn04]

It is pretty obvious what the sentiment seems to be on this board as to how and how much money the red sox should be willing to spend for any and all contracts. That fact is fairly clear but I will say that if one of blooms goals is to make us more consistently good , I would suggest that he is simply adopting the philosophy of every GM that we have had for some time now. We have been consistently good. There remain many ways to skin a cat. I will continue to be that guy who doesn't really think that John Henry is as concerned about his play money as the rest of you. We will see i guess what the off season brings.

 

If JH isn't concerned about play money, why would we trade Mookie and Price?

[Kimmi]

I'm all for building up the farm, but there comes a time when a big deal is needed to put a team over the top.

 

Can teams win without doing that? Yes, but we never have.

 

I don't disagree that there may be a time when a big deal is made to put us over the top. (Hopefully, it will never be a Mookie length big deal.) But again, this is not the year for such a deal.

 

Having said that, not making the big deal this year does not mean the team can't be competitive in 2021.

[Kimmi]

It is pretty obvious what the sentiment seems to be on this board as to how and how much money the red sox should be willing to spend for any and all contracts. That fact is fairly clear but I will say that if one of blooms goals is to make us more consistently good , I would suggest that he is simply adopting the philosophy of every GM that we have had for some time now. We have been consistently good. There remain many ways to skin a cat. I will continue to be that guy who doesn't really think that John Henry is as concerned about his play money as the rest of you. We will see i guess what the off season brings.

 

Correction: We were consistently good until the aftermath of Dombrowski. Bloom has a big mess to clean up.

 

Dombrowski had little concern with the long term when he made all of those initial deals. In other words, that was not a plan to be consistently good. That was a plan to be very good for a few years.

[notin]

It is pretty obvious what the sentiment seems to be on this board as to how and how much money the red sox should be willing to spend for any and all contracts. That fact is fairly clear but I will say that if one of blooms goals is to make us more consistently good , I would suggest that he is simply adopting the philosophy of every GM that we have had for some time now. We have been consistently good. There remain many ways to skin a cat. I will continue to be that guy who doesn't really think that John Henry is as concerned about his play money as the rest of you. We will see i guess what the off season brings.

 

Thinking Henry is not concerned what he spends on the Sox is just flat out ignoring history. And in this case, some extremely recent history...

[Bellhorn04]

Trading Eovaldi and not getting starting pitching back is nuts. The suggestion to swap bad contracts with Odor is nuts.

 

If Eovaldi can be packaged with another player or players so that we upgrade in the pitching department, it might make sense.

 

You don't normally see an established MLB pitcher traded for a better established MLB pitcher. Usually you have to give up prospects.

[moonslav59]

I don't disagree that there may be a time when a big deal is made to put us over the top. (Hopefully, it will never be a Mookie length big deal.) But again, this is not the year for such a deal.

 

Having said that, not making the big deal this year does not mean the team can't be competitive in 2021.

 

I'm not saying "This is the year," and in some ways it makes more sense to wait a year or two, but to me, it's all about who Bloom sees as "the guy."

 

We want to be much better next year without harming the longer outlook.

 

If Bloom sees a guy he really likes, he may pounce this winter. He likely will not.

[moonslav59]

An overreliance on free agent contracts could hamstring a franchise for years ... unless the team can flip the players for prospects when the club falls out of contention.

 

It has "hamstrung" us several times, but we've never won a ring without at least 2 major long term contracts on the books.

 

One could argue we have that now with Bogey and Sale, now, but neither were 7+ yr deals.

[moonslav59]

You don't normally see an established MLB pitcher traded for a better established MLB pitcher. Usually you have to give up prospects.

 

It's probably rarer to see a catcher like Vaz traded. They are hard to find.

 

While Chavis is not a prospect, including him in a deal may have the same affect.

[Bellhorn04]

It's probably rarer to see a catcher like Vaz traded. They are hard to find.

 

While Chavis is not a prospect, including him in a deal may have the same affect.

 

I challenge you to find an example of a team trading a top starter for something other than salary relief or prospects.

[notin]

I challenge you to find an example of a team trading a top starter for something other than salary relief or prospects.

 

Define “salary relief”.

 

In 2007, the White Sox traded Jon Garland for Orlando Cabrera. It did save them a few million, but not nearly what they could have saved by dealing Garland for prospects...

[Bellhorn04]

Define “salary relief”.

 

In 2007, the White Sox traded Jon Garland for Orlando Cabrera. It did save them a few million, but not nearly what they could have saved by dealing Garland for prospects...

 

When was Garland's contract expiring? That's the other key factor I should have included.

[notin]

When was Garland's contract expiring? That's the other key factor I should have included.

 

I think it as his final year, but I think it was also Cabrera's...

[Bellhorn04]

I think it as his final year, but I think it was also Cabrera's...

 

I don't think that slightly peculiar trade negates my point...

 

moon thinks we could land a top starting pitcher with years of control in return for Vazquez plus Eovaldi or something equivalent. I just can't see another team doing that. Top starting pitchers with years of control are precious commodities.

 

We know the Rays were interested in Vaz, and it was rumored they might be willing to give up a pitching prospect (or two?). That one made sense.