A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[moonslav59]

I actually am. To a point.

 

Bauer might wind up getting a contract like Price’s. And like Price’s deal, it will work out the first couple seasons.

 

I’m not so sure Realmuto commands a 7 year deal. He might, but catchers typically don’t get anywhere near that. Even 5 is almost unheard of.

 

But Realmuto is no ordinary catcher. He’s a former shortstop turned catcher who, in the event his deal is too long, would probably still be able to handle a corner INF or corner OF position adequately.

 

Five years? A no-brainer. 6 or 7 starts giving me pause...

 

My guess is he will look for the longest deal possible. An opt out will not be something that would help him as much as others, IMO.

 

I've never been high on Vaz's defense, and I don't know much about Realmuto's D, but if we could trade Vaz and others (Eovaldi?) for a quality, reliable starting pitcher, that might tip the balance on signing him.

 

I'm not sure why hardly anybody wants us to sign Bauer. True, he hasn't been a big innings guy, but that may be a good thing, since his arm has not been over-worked. He has had 26 or more starts since 2014. He's had 28 or more starts in 4 of those 6 seasons, including 34, last year. Yes, his ERA has been over 4.18 in 5 of those 6 years (not counting 2020), but he's been at 3.22 the last 3 years combined. His WHIP over the last 3 years is 1.125 with a K/9 of 11.2.

 

His ERA+ has been at 106, 109, 196, 106, 271 the last 5 years, including 2020. It's at 143 the last 3 years combined. That is very impressive.

I agree, he does not deserve David Price money and years, and if someone offers him that, I do not want us to match or surpass that, but I seriously doubt anyone goes that high and long.

[moonslav59]

Any thoughts on these free agents?

 

LeMahieu $90M/4

Brantley $45M/3

Turner $25M/2 (Move Devers to 1B?)

 

Others listed on bleacherreport that might fall near our likely contract range:

Kirby Yates

Mike Minor

Shane Greene

Liam Hendricks

Jonathan Schoop

 

If we decide to go larger (maybe for one not 2 guys)

Tanaka

Stroman

Ozuna

Springer

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Did Price's deal work out the first two seasons?

 

Yes, he led the league in IP year one, but 74.2 IP'd in year two was a drag.

 

ERA+

122 w TBR

136 w DET

179 w TOR

117 w BOS first 2 years combined.

 

It was year three he gave us his best:

123 ERA+ and 176 IP +26 extraordinary playoff IP.

 

All true, but his last year was a real drag in many ways (as chronicled ad nauseously). Statistically, it was probably his worst in Boston, and the worst stat for a spectator had to be the time between pitches -- entertaining it was not.

[Bellhorn04]

I've never been high on Vaz's defense, and I don't know much about Realmuto's D, but if we could trade Vaz and others (Eovaldi?) for a quality, reliable starting pitcher, that might tip the balance on signing him.

 

I don't understand the logic of trading Vaz and Eovaldi for a pitcher, from either side of the transaction.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Any thoughts on these free agents?

 

LeMahieu $90M/4

Brantley $45M/3

Turner $25M/2 (Move Devers to 1B?)

 

Others listed on bleacherreport that might fall near our likely contract range:

Kirby Yates

Mike Minor

Shane Greene

Liam Hendricks

Jonathan Schoop

 

If we decide to go larger (maybe for one not 2 guys)

Tanaka

Stroman

Ozuna

Springer

 

I'd be interested in all in the "others" column, and would rather sign, say Minor and Hendriks combined than what it would take for one of Bauer or Stroman. Ozuna loves to homer in Fenway, but he's a bad outfielder and a better DH (which we may need but can't afford for two more years).

 

Lester would be a good veteran influence -- as a winner and mentor -- but I'd doubt ownership would give him enough to make up for his distaste with the way it ended in Boston.

[moonslav59]

I don't understand the logic of trading Vaz and Eovaldi for a pitcher, from either side of the transaction.

 

Only if we sign Realmuto.

 

By adding Vaz with Eovaldi, we get a more reliable and better pitcher than Eovaldi and maybe free up some budget space to improve another weak area, but by signing Realmuto, one could argue the budget is hurt by this whole idea.

 

One could also argue saving some money by dumping Eovaldi would lessen the financial hit of signing Realmuto.

[moonslav59]

I'd be interested in all in the "others" column, and would rather sign, say Minor and Hendriks combined than what it would take for one of Bauer or Stroman. Ozuna loves to homer in Fenway, but he's a bad outfielder and a better DH (which we may need but can't afford for two more years).

 

Lester would be a good veteran influence -- as a winner and mentor -- but I'd doubt ownership would give him enough to make up for his distaste with the way it ended in Boston.

 

Maybe since it's new management (not new ownership), he could let bygones be bygones.

 

I'm not sure looking to sign ageing vets makes sense to a long term rebuild. Short deals, okay, but Lester may be looking for 3-4 years.

[notin]

Did Price's deal work out the first two seasons?

 

Yes, he led the league in IP year one, but 74.2 IP'd in year two was a drag.

 

ERA+

122 w TBR

136 w DET

179 w TOR

117 w BOS first 2 years combined.

 

It was year three he gave us his best:

123 ERA+ and 176 IP +26 extraordinary playoff IP.

 

True. Price actually got hurt the second year, which all but guaranteed he would not be opting out after the third. But the bottom line is he did his best work early and I would expect the same from Bauer.

 

The only advantage Bauer has might be his use of analytics. While some on this board think analytics are solely used to the front office nerds and are competently ignored by baseball payers, Trevor Bauer is the biggest, fattest monkey wrench in that theory. Bauer has apparently hired his own team of analysts to break down his game and improve himself wherever possible, including a former program to boost his velocity.

 

Despite all that, I still wouldn't give him 7 or 8 years. He might be able to optimize his performance at age 38, but that doesn't mean it will still be any good...

[moonslav59]

True. Price actually got hurt the second year, which all but guaranteed he would not be opting out after the third. But the bottom line is he did his best work early and I would expect the same from Bauer.

 

The only advantage Bauer has might be his use of analytics. While some on this board think analytics are solely used to the front office nerds and are competently ignored by baseball payers, Trevor Bauer is the biggest, fattest monkey wrench in that theory. Bauer has apparently hired his own team of analysts to break down his game and improve himself wherever possible, including a former program to boost his velocity.

 

Despite all that, I still wouldn't give him 7 or 8 years. He might be able to optimize his performance at age 38, but that doesn't mean it will still be any good...

 

I certainly felt a lot better about Price, before we signed him, than I do about Bauer, now.

 

It's not easy to make these kinds of calls. Signing Scherzer would have been a great signing. Price will end up costing us over $100M for basically 2 good years- not even close to his best two seasons.

[dgalehouse]

Houck , Chavis and Dalbec are the products of the Sox' " decimated " farm . " Little " Deivi Garcia is the pride and joy of the Yank's bumper crop . LOL . LOL. That 's what happens when you have a few pencil neck geeks making the player evaluations .

[Bellhorn04]

Houck , Chavis and Dalbec are the products of the Sox' " decimated " farm . " Little " Deivi Garcia is the pride and joy of the Yank's bumper crop . LOL . LOL. That 's what happens when you have a few pencil neck geeks making the player evaluations .

 

Denny, you are like the Dean of Old School.

[Bellhorn04]

Only if we sign Realmuto.

 

By adding Vaz with Eovaldi, we get a more reliable and better pitcher than Eovaldi and maybe free up some budget space to improve another weak area, but by signing Realmuto, one could argue the budget is hurt by this whole idea.

 

One could also argue saving some money by dumping Eovaldi would lessen the financial hit of signing Realmuto.

 

But who would make that trade WITH us? Why would they give up a more reliable and better pitcher than Eovaldi so they could get Eovaldi?

 

It has to make sense for both sides somehow.

[moonslav59]

But who would make that trade WITH us? Why would they give up a more reliable and better pitcher than Eovaldi so they could get Eovaldi?

 

It has to make sense for both sides somehow.

 

Umm, because of Vazquez.

 

Whatever value he has, you add to Eovaldi's value and get a pitcher with that total value. (We could even add someone like Chavis.)

 

If the pitcher we get is paid as much as Eovaldi, then the money part is taken out of the equation.

 

Why do you think Eovaldi+ Vaz= Eovaldi's equal?

[dgalehouse]

Denny, you are like the Dean of Old School.

 

Dean of Old School . I like that .

[harmony]

Umm, because of Vazquez.

 

Whatever value he has, you add to Eovaldi's value and get a pitcher with that total value. (We could even add someone like Chavis.)

 

If the pitcher we get is paid as much as Eovaldi, then the money part is taken out of the equation.

 

Why do you think Eovaldi+ Vaz= Eovaldi's equal?

What team can afford a pitching downgrade to Nathan Eovaldi and receive only Christian Vazquez as a sweetener.?

 

Needing quantity as well as quality in the starting rotation, the Red Sox are likely to retain Eovaldi. Depending on medical updates between now and December 2, the Sox may not tender Eduardo Rodriguez a 2021 contract working off his 2020 salary of $8.3 million.

[moonslav59]

What team can afford a pitching downgrade to Nathan Eovaldi and receive only Christian Vazquez as a sweetener.?

 

Needing quantity as well as quality in the starting rotation, the Red Sox are likely to retain Eovaldi. Depending on medical updates between now and December 2, the Sox may not tender Eduardo Rodriguez a 2021 contract working off his 2020 salary of $8.3 million.

 

I'm not saying we'll get an ace. We'll get someone about the value of Vazquez better.

 

Many teams need a catcher.

 

Some teams have a surplus of pitching.

 

It's not going to be easy, but if someone really wants Vaz, they would give someone better than Eovaldi.

 

Also, I only mentioned Eovaldi in passing. We could trade Vaz and Chavis for a pitcher and keep Eovaldi. I mentioned Eovaldi as a possible way to lessen the financial hit signing Realmuto would be.

 

I'm not even sure I want Realmuto.

[moonslav59]

What team can afford a pitching downgrade to Nathan Eovaldi and receive only Christian Vazquez as a sweetener.?

 

Also, according to some, here, Eovaldi is the second coming of David Price, who was someone not worth trading away.

[harmony]

I'm not saying we'll get an ace. We'll get someone about the value of Vazquez better.

 

Many teams need a catcher.

 

Some teams have a surplus of pitching.

 

It's not going to be easy, but if someone really wants Vaz, they would give someone better than Eovaldi.

 

Also, I only mentioned Eovaldi in passing. We could trade Vaz and Chavis for a pitcher and keep Eovaldi. I mentioned Eovaldi as a possible way to lessen the financial hit signing Realmuto would be.

 

I'm not even sure I want Realmuto.

Baseball Trade Values gives Nathan Eovaldi a value of a negative $18.9 million and Christian Vazquez a value of a positive $14.4 million, for a net negative $4.5 million.

 

A negative $4.5 million places the trade value in the ballpark of Dallas Keuchel (three-plus years), Michael Pineda (one-plus years), Danny Duffy (one-plus years) and Yusei Kikuchi (two-plus years):

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/

[Bellhorn04]

Also, according to some, here, Eovaldi is the second coming of David Price, who was someone not worth trading away.

 

Huh?

[moonslav59]

Baseball Trade Values gives Nathan Eovaldi a value of a negative $18.9 million and Christian Vazquez a value of a positive $14.4 million, for a net negative $4.5 million.

 

A negative $4.5 million places the trade value in the ballpark of Dallas Keuchel (three-plus years), Michael Pineda (one-plus years), Danny Duffy (one-plus years) and Yusei Kikuchi (two-plus years):

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/

 

How about when you add Chavis?

[moonslav59]

Huh?

 

My point was that people here seem to think trading Eovaldi is nuts, but when we speak of his value to other teams, he's worthless (actually negative).

 

Same thing with Price. Many hated that we traded him away and paid half his salary... like he's worth $15M a year (about what Eovaldi is being paid).

[Bellhorn04]

Umm, because of Vazquez.

 

Whatever value he has, you add to Eovaldi's value and get a pitcher with that total value. (We could even add someone like Chavis.)

 

If the pitcher we get is paid as much as Eovaldi, then the money part is taken out of the equation.

 

Why do you think Eovaldi+ Vaz= Eovaldi's equal?

 

The team that has most often been mentioned as being interested in Vazquez is the Rays.

 

Who else do you think would have interest in Vazquez?

[dgalehouse]

Baseball trade values.com = More pencil neck geeks that we are supposed to swear by. No thanks.

[moonslav59]

Baseball Trade Values gives Nathan Eovaldi a value of a negative $18.9 million and Christian Vazquez a value of a positive $14.4 million, for a net negative $4.5 million.

 

A negative $4.5 million places the trade value in the ballpark of Dallas Keuchel (three-plus years), Michael Pineda (one-plus years), Danny Duffy (one-plus years) and Yusei Kikuchi (two-plus years):

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/

 

Trade Values rates this as a moderate overpy by the Sox:

 

Eovaldi, Chavez & Vaz

for'

Syndergaard, Familia and Greene (OF in minors)

[moonslav59]

Baseball trade values.com = More pencil neck geeks that we are supposed to swear by. No thanks.

 

Nobody is saying to swear by them.

[harmony]

How about when you add Chavis?

Gerrit Cole (8+ years), Domingo German (3+ year). Sean Manaea (2+ years), Zach Eflin (2+ years), Luke Weaver (3+ years).

 

Good luck finding a trade partner looking for quantity over quality.

Edited September 20, 2020 by harmony

[moonslav59]

The team that has most often been mentioned as being interested in Vazquez is the Rays.

 

Who else do you think would have interest in Vazquez?

 

These teams have the lowest catcher WAR 2019-2020 combined:

(Vaz, Chavis & Eovaldi are valued at 13.1- here is close to equal value)

-3.9 TEX (Odor -26, LeClerc 16.8, Taveras 12.6 & Hernandez C-1B minors)

-3.5 DET (Zimmerman -4.5, Boyd 5.7 & Goodrum 12.0))

-2.6 COL (Blackmon -11.6, Freeland 16.8 & Amador 2B minors 7.6)

0.4 LAA (Upton -47, Canning 17.8 & Marsh OF minors 36.0)

0.4 BAL

0.5 PIT

0.7 NYM (Syndergaard, Familia & Greene OF minors)

0.9 STL (Fowler -19.8, Gallegos 26 & Reyes 5.3)

1.3 WSH (Castro -2.2, Rainey 10.7 or Suero 9.9 & de la Rosa OF minors 2.6)

1.7 TOR

1.8 TBR (Kiermaier -6.5 & Baz +19.5) , KC & MIA

 

 

[moonslav59]

Gerrit Cole (8+ years), Domingo German (3+ year). Sean Manaea (2+ years), Zach Eflin (2+ years), Luke Weaver (3+ years).

 

Good luck finding a trade partner looking for quantity over quality.

 

Vaz is quality, and maybe someone likes and needs a guy like Chavis. (See some deals I found that are 3 for 3 type deals that take on some negative salary and give back something of value.)

 

Eovaldi has value, but it's just his contract that scares away teams. If we take some salary back, that cancels out that drag.

[harmony]

What could the Red Sox offer for Seattle righthander Justin Dunn, who Sunday tossed his fifth quality start in nine outings this season?

 

The Boston College product, who turns 25 on Tuesday, had a shutout going until surrendering a three-run homer with two outs in the sixth inning.

 

No match is obvious.

[Kimmi]

I'm looking forward to MLBTR's free agent predictions for this offseason.

 

It will be interesting. That said, I know I've posted before that all the speculation during the trade deadline and offseason drive me crazy. I'd rather not hear anything about it until it's a done deal. LOL