A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[Kimmi]

Pete Abraham

@peteabe

·

23s

#RedSox received RHP Jacob Wallace as the PTBNL for Kevin Pillar. That's a good get. He's a former 3rd-round pick out of UConn and a Methuen High grad. Baseball America had him 15th in Rox organization before the season. College reliever, good fastball.

[jacksonianmarch]

Needless to say that's a huge concern and priority for the 2021 team.

 

Also maybe a good time to talk extension with him?

 

If he’s got a lowered EF, he may never be cleared to play. This isn’t the time to throw money at a guy who may never be allowed to play again. They’ve been tight lipped on his heart function

[jacksonianmarch]

Pete Abraham

@peteabe

·

23s

#RedSox received RHP Jacob Wallace as the PTBNL for Kevin Pillar. That's a good get. He's a former 3rd-round pick out of UConn and a Methuen High grad. Baseball America had him 15th in Rox organization before the season. College reliever, good fastball.

 

Pillar has sucked in Colorado and is due to hit the market. So the fact the Sox got anyone, especially a guy with big league stuff, for Pillar is a good get

[moonslav59]

Pete Abraham

@peteabe

·

23s

#RedSox received RHP Jacob Wallace as the PTBNL for Kevin Pillar. That's a good get. He's a former 3rd-round pick out of UConn and a Methuen High grad. Baseball America had him 15th in Rox organization before the season. College reliever, good fastball.

 

Nice to hear. He may be placed in our top 10-14 rankings.

 

I wonder who the PTBNL for Osich wiill be.

[moonslav59]

Our Top Prospects

1. Casas

2. Downs

3. Mata

4. Dalbec

5. Ward

6. Jimenez

7. Houck

8. Duran

9. Song

10. Wallace

11. Rosario

12. Groome

13. Yorke

14. Potts

15. Seabold

16. Jordan

17. Lugo

18. Wong

19. Ramirez

20. PTBNL for Osich?

 

Red= Bloom additions

Edited September 19, 2020 by moonslav59

[oldtimer]

Our Top Prospects

1. Casas

2. Downs

3. Mata

4. Dalbec

5. Ward

6. Jimenez

7. Houck

8. Duran

9. Song

10. Wallace

11. Rosario

12. Groome

13. Yorke

14. Potts

15. Seabold

16. Jordan

17. Lugo

18. Wong

19. Ramirez

20. PTBNL for Osick?

 

Red= Bloom additions

 

We still have a PTBNL(Osich) and probably two draft choices to make the top 20 list, so there has been a substantial improvement in our farm already. No doubt Bloom will also trade some of our current assets for still more farm improvement so that part of the Sox team is coming along.

 

The good news is Verdugo and Arroyo look like very good young MLs going forward. we also have Perez as a starter who looks like he belongs. Houck shows some signs of sticking.

 

The bad news is Sale won't be back from TJS until around June, E-Rod is still iffy and in general our BP is a weakness. In addition, 1st base a nd two outfield positions are up in the air as is DH.

 

Who on the prospect list can help us? Dalbec, Duran, Mata, Seabold or others? Will Pivetta turn into a great pickup by Bloom? What other pitchers from the existing staff can help us? D-Hern, Barnes, Brazier, Valdez, Brice, Brewer? many beneficial moves

 

There is real hope that the 2021 version of the Sox will be much more competitive but it will require Bloom to jettison a lot of players, with some moves being unpopular. The needs are obvious as are the impediments, like contracts keeping us from making the moves that seem needed. I trust Bloom as he has already made many beneficial moves and says the right things about objectives.

[Kimmi]

Pillar has sucked in Colorado and is due to hit the market. So the fact the Sox got anyone, especially a guy with big league stuff, for Pillar is a good get

 

I know nothing about Wallace outside of the very little I've read since yesterday, but it sounds like a pretty good get for Pillar.

[Kimmi]

We still have a PTBNL(Osich) and probably two draft choices to make the top 20 list, so there has been a substantial improvement in our farm already. No doubt Bloom will also trade some of our current assets for still more farm improvement so that part of the Sox team is coming along.

 

The good news is Verdugo and Arroyo look like very good young MLs going forward. we also have Perez as a starter who looks like he belongs. Houck shows some signs of sticking.

 

The bad news is Sale won't be back from TJS until around June, E-Rod is still iffy and in general our BP is a weakness. In addition, 1st base a nd two outfield positions are up in the air as is DH.

 

Who on the prospect list can help us? Dalbec, Duran, Mata, Seabold or others? Will Pivetta turn into a great pickup by Bloom? What other pitchers from the existing staff can help us? D-Hern, Barnes, Brazier, Valdez, Brice, Brewer? many beneficial moves

 

There is real hope that the 2021 version of the Sox will be much more competitive but it will require Bloom to jettison a lot of players, with some moves being unpopular. The needs are obvious as are the impediments, like contracts keeping us from making the moves that seem needed. I trust Bloom as he has already made many beneficial moves and says the right things about objectives.

 

It's been a very small sample, but Arroyo is making us take notice. It would be great if he worked out as our 2B for at least the near future. One less thing to worry about.

 

It was recently pointed out to me that Perez' peripherals are not pretty. He has an xFIP of 5.21 and a BABIP of .244. He's due for some regression. That said, I still think picking up his option for 2021 is a no brainer for the Sox.

[Kimmi]

On the telecast last night, Werner said that the Sox would not be going into a long rebuilding process and that they would be back next year. I know that this is what management types tend to say, but I believe this is the case. You can bet that Henry doesn't like losing any more than the fans do. He won't tolerate another season like this.

 

The sentiment was echoed by Remy and Eck. If they say it, you know it's true. (Except for when they talk about rising fast balls.)

 

I still don't believe there will be any big free agent signings, but I am confident the team will be competitive.

[Bellhorn04]

If he’s got a lowered EF, he may never be cleared to play. This isn’t the time to throw money at a guy who may never be allowed to play again. They’ve been tight lipped on his heart function

 

Yes, well, needless to say, they need to know more before doing any such thing. It was just a thought.

[oldtimer]

On the telecast last night, Werner said that the Sox would not be going into a long rebuilding process and that they would be back next year. I know that this is what management types tend to say, but I believe this is the case. You can bet that Henry doesn't like losing any more than the fans do. He won't tolerate another season like this.

 

The sentiment was echoed by Remy and Eck. If they say it, you know it's true. (Except for when they talk about rising fast balls.)

 

I still don't believe there will be any big free agent signings, but I am confident the team will be competitive.

 

 

You don't believe in repealing the laws of physics?

[jacksonianmarch]

Yes, well, needless to say, they need to know more before doing any such thing. It was just a thought.

 

That's the only skepticism I have here. Clearly, I hope he can play. But they have said nothing about his heart function. Did they just see uptake on the MRI or did they see diminished function. And what was the underlying reason for suspecting myocarditis? Did he have chest pain and shortness of breath, a troponin leak, an EKG abnormality, a dysrhythmia? Lots of possibilities and to this point, the sox were mum. My bet is we won't find out about how bad it was until he is cleared, then they'll over state how bad it was to add to the story.

[moonslav59]

We still have a PTBNL(Osich) and probably two draft choices to make the top 20 list, so there has been a substantial improvement in our farm already. No doubt Bloom will also trade some of our current assets for still more farm improvement so that part of the Sox team is coming along.

 

The good news is Verdugo and Arroyo look like very good young MLs going forward. we also have Perez as a starter who looks like he belongs. Houck shows some signs of sticking.

 

The bad news is Sale won't be back from TJS until around June, E-Rod is still iffy and in general our BP is a weakness. In addition, 1st base a nd two outfield positions are up in the air as is DH.

 

Who on the prospect list can help us? Dalbec, Duran, Mata, Seabold or others? Will Pivetta turn into a great pickup by Bloom? What other pitchers from the existing staff can help us? D-Hern, Barnes, Brazier, Valdez, Brice, Brewer? many beneficial moves

 

There is real hope that the 2021 version of the Sox will be much more competitive but it will require Bloom to jettison a lot of players, with some moves being unpopular. The needs are obvious as are the impediments, like contracts keeping us from making the moves that seem needed. I trust Bloom as he has already made many beneficial moves and says the right things about objectives.

 

If we spend the full $70M we have under the lux limit, we can be much better next year without any major trades.

 

That doesn't mean we won't or shouldn't make any, but only that we may not need to shed anymore vets or big salaries to get back to competitiveness. My guess is we hold onto the players that will be free agents, soon, and see what happens, next season. If we are not looking competitive, we'll trade some by the deadline.

 

Pedey, ERod and Barnes all come off the books after 2021, so the latter two seem like the most likely to be traded, but if Eovaldi , Beni & JD look good, next year, they could be on the block, too. They all come off the books after 2022.

 

If Henry really wants to win in 2021, he may okay going $19M over the limit, thereby allowing us to spend about $90M. If we can't get competitive with that budget, then there's little hope.

[dgalehouse]

The consensus is that the pitching staff is in need of improvement . I am scratching my head trying to figure out how trading Eovaldi helps to achieve that . Have not come up with anything yet .

[dgalehouse]

Tom Werner says that the Sox are going to try and be competitive in 2021 . Gee , thanks Tom . That's the general idea .

[moonslav59]

The consensus is that the pitching staff is in need of improvement . I am scratching my head trying to figure out how trading Eovaldi helps to achieve that . Have not come up with anything yet .

 

I'm scratching my head wondering when his next IL stint is. Tomorrow?

 

The idea of trading Eovaldi (with some cash), assuming for a prospect or two, is to free up budget space for adding pitchers we can actually count on to pitch while building up the farm for longer term success.

 

Sure, the trade might not work, or Eovaldi could suddenly get healthy right after we deal him, but the theory for trading him does make some sense, even if you disagree with it and think Eovaldi is going to do something meaningful for us over the next 2 years of his deal.

 

Yes, it looks counterintuitive to trade pitching when your biggest need is pitching, but we're talking about a pitcher who spends more time on the IL than not. He has 62 starts and 345 IP in the last 5 seasons combined. Several pitchers give that in 2 seasons.

 

If we don't get anything useful for him, then keep him, but one could argue trading him and his full contract for nothing might be a plus.

[Nick]

If we spend the full $70M we have under the lux limit, we can be much better next year without any major trades.

 

That doesn't mean we won't or shouldn't make any, but only that we may not need to shed anymore vets or big salaries to get back to competitiveness. My guess is we hold onto the players that will be free agents, soon, and see what happens, next season. If we are not looking competitive, we'll trade some by the deadline.

 

Pedey, ERod and Barnes all come off the books after 2021, so the latter two seem like the most likely to be traded, but if Eovaldi , Beni & JD look good, next year, they could be on the block, too. They all come off the books after 2022.

 

If Henry really wants to win in 2021, he may okay going $19M over the limit, thereby allowing us to spend about $90M. If we can't get competitive with that budget, then there's little hope.

 

The problem with spending every bit of cap space in 2021 is hindering Sox from signing players post 2021. It has to be the right mix. Devers and others will start to cost more in near future. I just don't see us being competitive next year based on this year's performance. Sure we'll be better. But how much better? Good enough to compete for a playoff spot better?

Edited September 19, 2020 by Nick

[moonslav59]

The problem with spending every bit of cap space in 2021 is hindering Sox from signing players post 2021. It has to be the right mix. Devers and others will start to cost more in near future. I just don't see us being competitive next year based on this year's performance. Sure we'll be better. But how much better? Good enough to compete for a playoff spot better?

 

Not if a big chunk of the deals we make, money wise, are 1-2 year deals or longer term deals that actually work out for the long term.

 

We also lose Pedey, ERod and Barne's contracts after 2021. That will give us more to spend after 2021. We lose JD and Eovaldi after 2022. Bogey may opt out after 2022, as well.

 

The only real long term deal we have left is Sale, and he only has 4 more years left after 2020.

 

I'm not saying we will spend $90M, this winter, but we could. More likely we spend about $60M, keep $10-30M to make summer deals, if needed, or to spend after 2021.

 

I do think that if Bloom identifies a FA he really likes for the long term, and it will take a 6+ year deal to get him, why wait for 2022? The idea is to start building a core, now. Fill in the rest with shorter term deals to allow flexibility, later, but get a few pieces this winter.

 

I could see the plan being to spend up to but not over the first limit, maybe $6-10M short of it, then go $19M over for 2022- the year we might be a top contender with Bogey, JD and Eovaldi still under control that one last year.

[jacksonianmarch]

Eovaldi is only going to move in a dump. So you deal him and literally take back either another dump or nothing. So dealing Eovaldi does nothing. If he pitches, he fills a need. If he doesn’t, he’s the same as a dump. If the true goal is to contend, then penciling in Eovaldi to the 5 hole is what you do. If your goal is financial flexibility, then you dump him

[harmony]

Will the Red Sox tender Eduardo Rodriguez a 2021 contract working off his 2020 salary of $8.3 million?

 

Much will depend on the medical updates between now and non-tender deadline (which may still be December 2).

 

.https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2020/09/eduardo-rodriguez-boston-red-sox-starter-may-not-have-full-workload-in-2021-you-lose-a-lot-when-youve-been-down-as-long-as-he-has.html

 

https://d39ba378-ae47-4003-86d3-147e4fa6e51b.filesusr.com/ugd/b0a4c2_95883690627349e0a5203f61b93715b5.pdf

 

Last offseason the Red Sox beat Rodriguez in arbitration when the three-arbitrator panel went with the team's $8.3 million salary over the lefthander's salary submission of $8.975 million.

 

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2020/02/boston-red-sox-defeat-eduardo-rodriguez-in-arbitration-lefty-will-earn-83-million-in-2020.html

 

MLB Trade Rumors had projected Rodriguez with a 2020 salary of $9.5 million.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/mlb-arbitration-salaries-2020.html

Edited September 19, 2020 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Eovaldi is only going to move in a dump. So you deal him and literally take back either another dump or nothing. So dealing Eovaldi does nothing. If he pitches, he fills a need. If he doesn’t, he’s the same as a dump. If the true goal is to contend, then penciling in Eovaldi to the 5 hole is what you do. If your goal is financial flexibility, then you dump him

 

I think we hold onto him, at least to next summer's trade deadline. We hope he looks healthy and with less and less owed to him as time goes by, we might be able to trade him without paying any of his deal, or very little. The return might not be the goal.

[notin]

The problem with spending every bit of cap space in 2021 is hindering Sox from signing players post 2021. It has to be the right mix. Devers and others will start to cost more in near future. I just don't see us being competitive next year based on this year's performance. Sure we'll be better. But how much better? Good enough to compete for a playoff spot better?

 

Well, some of those current commitments will also come off the books, too. For example, after 2021, Pedroia is off the books.

[notin]

I think we hold onto him, at least to next summer's trade deadline. We hope he looks healthy and with less and less owed to him as time goes by, we might be able to trade him without paying any of his deal, or very little. The return might not be the goal.

 

Since te Sox are not likely to move him without eating money or taking back some sort of Rougned Oder-type hideous deal, he probably stays. Hopefully they move him to the bullpen. He simply cannot handle the rotation...

[moonslav59]

Since te Sox are not likely to move him without eating money or taking back some sort of Rougned Oder-type hideous deal, he probably stays. Hopefully they move him to the bullpen. He simply cannot handle the rotation...

 

I'd do the Odor trade, yesterday.

 

He's owed $27M over the next 2 years, including paying off the $3M buyout for the 3rd year. Eovaldi is owed $34M. While we save $7M over 2 years, we actually save $8.75M PER YEAR on the luxury tax budget. That's very significant. We could even throw in another player or chip in the $7M to even the deal for the Rangers, but we'd still save over $5 a year on the tax budget.

[moonslav59]

Well, some of those current commitments will also come off the books, too. For example, after 2021, Pedroia is off the books.

 

Pedey, ERod & Barnes may total $25M for 2021. That's a pretty big chunk of change to have added to the winter spending budget after 2021.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm scratching my head wondering when his next IL stint is. Tomorrow?

 

The idea of trading Eovaldi (with some cash), assuming for a prospect or two, is to free up budget space for adding pitchers we can actually count on to pitch while building up the farm for longer term success.

 

Sure, the trade might not work, or Eovaldi could suddenly get healthy right after we deal him, but the theory for trading him does make some sense, even if you disagree with it and think Eovaldi is going to do something meaningful for us over the next 2 years of his deal.

 

Yes, it looks counterintuitive to trade pitching when your biggest need is pitching, but we're talking about a pitcher who spends more time on the IL than not. He has 62 starts and 345 IP in the last 5 seasons combined. Several pitchers give that in 2 seasons.

 

If we don't get anything useful for him, then keep him, but one could argue trading him and his full contract for nothing might be a plus.

 

2 of Eovaldi's last 3 IL stints were to clean up 'loose bodies' from his last TJ surgery. That seems like bad luck more than being injury-prone.

 

The other was for a minor calf strain.

[notin]

I'd do the Odor trade, yesterday.

 

He's owed $27M over the next 2 years, including paying off the $3M buyout for the 3rd year. Eovaldi is owed $34M. While we save $7M over 2 years, we actually save $8.75M PER YEAR on the luxury tax budget. That's very significant. We could even throw in another player or chip in the $7M to even the deal for the Rangers, but we'd still save over $5 a year on the tax budget.

 

It is significant, until you realize Oder has morphed into a replacement level player and it will cost more than $8.75 mill to replace Eovaldi.

 

Now if Oder can return to being a 2.4 fWAR player, that’s another matter...

[moonslav59]

2 of Eovaldi's last 3 IL stints were to clean up 'loose bodies' from his last TJ surgery. That seems like bad luck more than being injury-prone.

 

The other was for a minor calf strain.

 

Do you have faith he'll make even 42 of his scheduled 64 starts over 2021-2022?

 

I'd probably bet the under on 34 GS'd.

[moonslav59]

It is significant, until you realize Oder has morphed into a replacement level player and it will cost more than $8.75 mill to replace Eovaldi.

 

Now if Oder can return to being a 2.4 fWAR player, that’s another matter...

 

He's only 26, and replacing a pitcher who only pitches half the time is not such a big deal.

 

I'm not making the deal because I have much faith in Odor. I'm making the deal to free up some cash for the next 2 years. No, we probably won't strike magic at $8M a year, but Bloom is pretty good at finding under-the-radar gems, and the idea is that maybe instead of signing a pitcher for $12-18M a year, we could add the $8M saved from Eovaldi and get a mucch better one at $20-28M per year.

 

Look, I'm not sold on it being a sure fire good idea. Eovaldi is a damn good pitcher, when healthy, and he can pitch much better than his $17M contract, but with just 2 years left on his deal and our rebuild maybe taking 1-2 more years, I'm at least looking into dealing anyone with less than 3 years of team control- not handing them away, of course.

Edited September 19, 2020 by moonslav59

[oldtimer]

I'm scratching my head wondering when his next IL stint is. Tomorrow?

 

The idea of trading Eovaldi (with some cash), assuming for a prospect or two, is to free up budget space for adding pitchers we can actually count on to pitch while building up the farm for longer term success.

 

Sure, the trade might not work, or Eovaldi could suddenly get healthy right after we deal him, but the theory for trading him does make some sense, even if you disagree with it and think Eovaldi is going to do something meaningful for us over the next 2 years of his deal.

 

Yes, it looks counterintuitive to trade pitching when your biggest need is pitching, but we're talking about a pitcher who spends more time on the IL than not. He has 62 starts and 345 IP in the last 5 seasons combined. Several pitchers give that in 2 seasons.

 

If we don't get anything useful for him, then keep him, but one could argue trading him and his full contract for nothing might be a plus.

 

I have thought he might act as a closer for us in 2021. We paid Kimbrel an equivalent amount and he may be able to handle 1 inning assignments and stay healthy.