A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[moonslav59]

No Pivetta?

 

Bloom apparently wanted him. That trade was far from a salary dump...

 

Well, everyone won't be healthy, so Pivetta would probably be #6 if all were, and maybe 4 or 5, when 1 or 2 are out.

[mvp 78]

@ChrisCotillo

Xander Bogaerts says he thinks the Red Sox can contend in 2021 and is looking forward to seeing some of the club's prospects coming up. Asked for specifics, he mentions Jeter Downs and Bryan Mata as two young players he's excited about.

[moonslav59]

@ChrisCotillo

Xander Bogaerts says he thinks the Red Sox can contend in 2021 and is looking forward to seeing some of the club's prospects coming up. Asked for specifics, he mentions Jeter Downs and Bryan Mata as two young players he's excited about.

 

I doubt either is on the big roster before June... more likely September.

[oldtimer]

I doubt either is on the big roster before June... more likely September.

 

Right now, it looks like the Sox will start with a place holder at 2nd as it might be wasteful to go the FA route for a 2nd baseman only to have Downs ready in a few months. It's anyone's guess with pitching. Clearly we will need starters

[moonslav59]

Right now, it looks like the Sox will start with a place holder at 2nd as it might be wasteful to go the FA route for a 2nd baseman only to have Downs ready in a few months. It's anyone's guess with pitching. Clearly we will need starters

 

I agree, but we may spend a little on a vet 2B who may double as a back up SS, 3B and/or OF.

 

We may also just roll the dice on Chavis, Arauz, Lin & Chatham holding down the position until Downs is ready, if he ever is.

[moonslav59]

We may have about $70M to spend this winter- maybe $90M, if Henry allows the budget to get up close to the second line.

 

Could we see the money spent this way?

 

$20-30M #1 or #2 SP'er

$12-18M Closer

$6-9M RP'er

$6-9M CF'er

$5-8M RP'er

$5-8M SP'er

$5-8M RP'er

$3-6M 4th OF'er

$3-6M 2B/Utility IF

 

Or, more like this:

$25-30M SP

$16-20M Closer

$10-12M RP'er

$10-12M CF'er

$8-10M RP/SP'er

 

Edited September 10, 2020 by moonslav59

[oldtimer]

We may have about $70M to spend this winter- maybe $90M, if Henry allows the budget to get up close to the second line.

 

Could we see the money spent this way?

 

$20-30M #1 or #2 SP'er

$12-18M Closer

$6-9M RP'er

$6-9M CF'er

$5-8M RP'er

$5-8M SP'er

$5-8M RP'er

$3-6M 4th OF'er

$3-6M 2B/Utility IF

 

Or, more like this:

$25-30M SP

$16-20M Closer

$10-12M RP'er

$10-12M CF'er

$8-10M RP/SP'er

 

 

Good job of identifying possible allowances to meet needs. Should we hold some back to meet mid season needs as they arise? Also, Bloom trades may alter the available resources and needs, so it is somewhat fluid now.

[moonslav59]

Good job of identifying possible allowances to meet needs. Should we hold some back to meet mid season needs as they arise? Also, Bloom trades may alter the available resources and needs, so it is somewhat fluid now.

 

Yes, this was just a possible starting framework.

 

Chances are we leave some budget room for the summer.

 

We may even not spend large, this winter, but I think we will.

 

We could spend big on someone like Springer, then go for a SP'er the following winter.

[notin]

Yes, this was just a possible starting framework.

 

Chances are we leave some budget room for the summer.

 

We may even not spend large, this winter, but I think we will.

 

We could spend big on someone like Springer, then go for a SP'er the following winter.

 

Possibly also trade for a pitcher in the final year of his deal. Interestingly, the bulk of the Astros rotation fits that description, in Verlander, Greinke and McCullers...

[moonslav59]

Possibly also trade for a pitcher in the final year of his deal. Interestingly, the bulk of the Astros rotation fits that description, in Verlander, Greinke and McCullers...

 

I doubt we trade any of the future for a 1 year pitcher.

[Kimmi]

My only problem with the Pomeranz trade was letting Preller clearly cheat, lie and steal.

 

And Pomeranz has turned into an excellent pitcher who has pitched for 4 teams since that trade, while Espinoza has pitched all of 32 innings for the San Diego minor league system, and none since 2016.

 

Had the Sox not made that trade, what good would Espinoza be doing us today? Making Jay Groome look healthy by comparison?

 

Yeah, that whole thing with Pom's medicals was a little curious. It's curious why we didn't back out of the trade when we had the chance. That said, and in hindsight, we really aren't missing anything in Espinoza.

[Kimmi]

I can't see this franchise -- ownership, fandom, media, and maybe most importantly, on-field management and the core of returning players -- tolerating the Bloom opener strategy again next season. Bloom could trade for all the Tampa openers from the past three years, and it still won't be accepted.

 

Call it what it is: "bullpen games" are bullcrap games, because a team ran out of starters. No one looks forward to it (except maybe a pitcher trying to get in some work and impress so he may get more innings). You can bet no Rays fans were scrambling last year to get into their seats by the end of the anthem so they wouldn't miss Ryne Stanek's one inning, or clamoring to buy tickets for the next game because "Jalen Beeks is supposed to pitch the bulk innings!"

 

Boston needs to plan on acquiring an entire new starting rotation -- because we can't and shouldn't count on anything from ERod, Sale or even Eovaldi. If we bring back Perez, I still think we need five legitimate MLB starters for '21. The Red Sox will have the resources to get them. Hell, the Blue Jays added six starters in a 60-game sprint...

 

I do not like the opener/bullpen games one bit. Like you, I want to see 5 legitimate starters who can carry the bulk of the innings. Bullpens should not be pitching 50% (or more) of the innings in a season.

 

Unfortunately, it seems that this opener/bullpen strategy is catching on more and more. I hope I'm wrong about that.

[Kimmi]

I think our lineup, as is, looks pretty strong, once JD gets back on track.

 

Pitching, pitching, and more pitching.

[oldtimer]

I think our lineup, as is, looks pretty strong, once JD gets back on track.

 

Pitching, pitching, and more pitching.

 

Looks like Peraza is a failed experiment so we need to keep looking for a placeholder at 22nd base for 2020 and early 2021.

[jacksonianmarch]

Building a full rotation and pen isn’t easy when you need to save cash to start paying your offensive stars

[moonslav59]

Building a full rotation and pen isn’t easy when you need to save cash to start paying your offensive stars

 

Star not "stars "(Devers).

[moonslav59]

Looks like Peraza is a failed experiment so we need to keep looking for a placeholder at 22nd base for 2020 and early 2021.

 

I could see us rolling the dice with Chavis, Arauz, Lin, Chatham and Peraza and using all available resources for pitching and OF.

[notin]

Looks like Peraza is a failed experiment so we need to keep looking for a placeholder at 22nd base for 2020 and early 2021.

 

Hopefully they do not get placeholders for two years while betting solely on Downs. Get a real second baseman/starting player and worry about the logjam when it becomes an issue.

 

If the Cardinals do not pick up the $12.5million option on Kolten Wong (which is not the given it looked like 8 months ago), hopefully the Sox show some interest...

[notin]

I could see us rolling the dice with Chavis, Arauz, Lin, Chatham and Peraza and using all available resources for pitching and OF.

 

Peraza is extremely likely to be non-tendered.

 

Of the remaining 3, Arauz is most likely to be in Pawtucket. He's only in MLB now to clear his Rule 5 status. While I liked Lin as the starting 2b 6 months ago, he has done zero to prove me right. Chavis is not a full time player. And I think Chatham can play the position defensively, but he is a high strikeout/low BB slap hitter whose numbers have been dependent on insanely high BABIP in the minors. (Granted, he rarely hits the ball in the air, and his LD/GB approach should lead to a higher BABIP.) Can he maintain anything close to this type of success in MLB? I'd bet against it if he was getting 600 ABs per year. He's probably best used as a utility infielder who can adequately back up 2B, 3B and SS.

 

Munoz strikes me as the best internal option, but even he has had limited success in the majors to date...

[jacksonianmarch]

Star not "stars "(Devers).

 

Star not "stars "(Devers).

 

Yeah, I guess the shine is off Beni. That 2 yr $10 mil extension the sox signed with him that looked like a full out steal is looking a bit suspect, even.

 

But let's look a the sox in depth here.

 

C- Vazquez- 2 yrs left, pretty cheaply, Highly valuable trade chip

1B- Dalbec- He's a guy you're gonna have to roll with, but his amount of swing and miss is concerning that the league will catch up to him

2B- Downs- he isnt ready, but he is your future here

SS- Bogaerts- opt out in 2 years. NTC now. Still a total star, but you will need to spend big on him in 2 years

3B- Devers- stud who you will need to spend huge on in 3 years.

LF- Beni- who knows, but he has two years left of control before you have to sign him

CF- ???

RF- Verdugo- 4 more years of control

DH- Martinez- maybe its the lack of video, maybe its the shortened year or maybe he is starting to break down. 2 more years at big dollars

 

For the offense, the sox are going to need to spend big on Vaz and Bogey in 2 years if the goal is to keep them. They will increasing start spending more on Devers as he runs through arbitration. You will need to rely on Verdugo's last year of cheap coverage and then hope you can get Duran, Downs and Dalbec to produce while they are cheap.

[notin]

Star not "stars "(Devers).

 

Verdugo?

[notin]

Yeah, I guess the shine is off Beni. That 2 yr $10 mil extension the sox signed with him that looked like a full out steal is looking a bit suspect, even.

 

But let's look a the sox in depth here.

 

C- Vazquez- 2 yrs left, pretty cheaply, Highly valuable trade chip

1B- Dalbec- He's a guy you're gonna have to roll with, but his amount of swing and miss is concerning that the league will catch up to him

2B- Downs- he isnt ready, but he is your future here

SS- Bogaerts- opt out in 2 years. NTC now. Still a total star, but you will need to spend big on him in 2 years

3B- Devers- stud who you will need to spend huge on in 3 years.

LF- Beni- who knows, but he has two years left of control before you have to sign him

CF- ???

RF- Verdugo- 4 more years of control

DH- Martinez- maybe its the lack of video, maybe its the shortened year or maybe he is starting to break down. 2 more years at big dollars

 

For the offense, the sox are going to need to spend big on Vaz and Bogey in 2 years if the goal is to keep them. They will increasing start spending more on Devers as he runs through arbitration. You will need to rely on Verdugo's last year of cheap coverage and then hope you can get Duran, Downs and Dalbec to produce while they are cheap.

 

I would guess Vazquez is not with the Sox next season.

 

They're going to have to make a few trades to prevent repeating exactly what Dombrowski did, and they do not have much in the way of trade bait. But Vazquez was apparently a somewhat sought-after player last month, so there should still be sufficient interest.

 

I suppose Downs is another potential trade piece, since he was clearly not Plan A in the Betts trade. Possible he as only acquired to be a potential deal piece to get an arm when the Sox (mistakenly?) decided against Graterol?

[jacksonianmarch]

Vaz to the Rays makes all the sense in the world

[Bellhorn04]

3B- Devers- stud who you will need to spend huge on in 3 years.

 

For the offense, the sox are going to need to spend big on Vaz and Bogey in 2 years if the goal is to keep them. They will increasing start spending more on Devers as he runs through arbitration.

 

Devers is a fine young hitter, but he is also a minus defender and minus baserunner. So we're not talking about a Mookie-type talent or price tag by any means,

[mvp 78]

Devers is a fine young hitter, but he is also a minus defender and minus baserunner. So we're not talking about a Mookie-type talent or price tag by any means,

 

His defense was average last season. I think he just struggled with the spring training/summer camp nonsense that happened this year. Regardless, I don't think he'd get a Mookie deal... yet.

 

Also, WHY DOES HE HAVE AN ABOVE AVERAGE BSR SCORE ON FANGRAPHS IF YOU THINK HE'S A MINUS RUNNER?

[Bellhorn04]

His defense was average last season. I think he just struggled with the spring training/summer camp nonsense that happened this year. Regardless, I don't think he'd get a Mookie deal... yet.

 

Also, WHY DOES HE HAVE AN ABOVE AVERAGE BSR SCORE ON FANGRAPHS IF YOU THINK HE'S A MINUS RUNNER?

 

Because I took the lazy man's route and only looked at B-R.

[mvp 78]

Because I took the lazy man's route and only looked at B-R.

 

I used to always prefer baseball reference, but I have grown to see that fangraphs is typically more user friendly and easier to navigate. The only time I go straight to baseball ref is when I'm on my phone.

[jacksonianmarch]

Devers is going to be looking for a Mookie contract. He’s going to be very young as a first time FA and he’s a rare breed that can hit for plus power and plus average. He is what the Blue Jays hope Vladdy Jr can be

 

Btw, am I the only one who’s autocorrect changed Mookie to Millie every damn time? I don’t even know a Millie

[notin]

Vaz to the Rays makes all the sense in the world

 

Depends on what they get back.

 

As Bloom has a tendency to take a bad contract in order to up the return, there could be a fit with Kevin Kiermaier (2 yrs $25.8mill) in order to get Trevor Richards and Shane Baz, or, more likely one of, Shane McClanahan or Joe Ryan or Brent Honeywell.

 

This deal works for Boston as the get one MLB pitcher (Ricjards) who is clearly being underutilized in Tampa, one minor league pitcher (your choice - each has pros and cons) and a short term replacement for Bradley. Tampa also deals from two positions of depth in pitching and CF, where they still have Manny Margot and Randy Arozarena, and saves a bundle of money. It's a win-win.

 

All of these deal result in a minor overpay on BTV. If it's Baz, Tampa is overpaying. Boston is slightly overpaying with any of the other....

[notin]

Devers is going to be looking for a Mookie contract. He’s going to be very young as a first time FA and he’s a rare breed that can hit for plus power and plus average. He is what the Blue Jays hope Vladdy Jr can be

 

Btw, am I the only one who’s autocorrect changed Mookie to Millie every damn time? I don’t even know a Millie

 

He might be looking, but he is not likely to be getting one from anyone. (Now, Ronald Acuna, he will be getting one of those.) Age aside, Devers simply is not as good as Betts. B-R lists his most similar batter by age as Ryan Zimmerman, but obviously he won't be looking for a Zimmerman deal (~8 years $114mill), as it was so long ago it's not fiscally relevant. But an 8 year $200-220mill contract does seem right if he signs it by age 27. He'll very likely go for more than Bogaerts...