A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

He did acquire the contract of Craig, though, but the deal also shed some money (Lackey), so it wasn't as bad as it looked.

 

Although many of the prospects Ben handed over to DD have not looked all that great, at the time, they were rated highly and many brought back nice returns via trade due to that perceived value.

 

The farm DD handed over to Bloom is so far below what Ben handed to DD, it's not even close.

 

The bloated contracts look to be about even.

 

DD handed over more money owed, but the players were not complete deadwoods like HanRam, Pablito & Castillo were.

 

I thought Cherington dropped the ball in those deadline deals as they seemed to lack any direction. As he was dealing away his rotation and effectively punting, why not get players without deals but with control. Craig was a salary dump. But why did he acquire Cespedes (who was contractually barred from receivng arbitration) and Kelly? When the deals were announced, I was assuming prospects, which would have made sense in some ways. Why take the salary dump when not getting prospects, since most times teams taking on the money do so to up the return? The acquisition of the veteran players was presumably to keep the team competitive going forward, but they did nothing to replace what was dealt away. (Although Cespedes was eventually dealt for Porcello, but I seriously doubt that was the original plan.)

[moonslav59]

I thought Cherington dropped the ball in those deadline deals as they seemed to lack any direction. As he was dealing away his rotation and effectively punting, why not get players without deals but with control. Craig was a salary dump. But why did he acquire Cespedes (who was contractually barred from receivng arbitration) and Kelly? When the deals were announced, I was assuming prospects, which would have made sense in some ways. Why take the salary dump when not getting prospects, since most times teams taking on the money do so to up the return? The acquisition of the veteran players was presumably to keep the team competitive going forward, but they did nothing to replace what was dealt away. (Although Cespedes was eventually dealt for Porcello, but I seriously doubt that was the original plan.)

 

At the time of those deals, I said he was playing it "halfway," and I agree, he should have gone more towards youth and team controlled players. They did get Kelly in the Lackey deal, and he was controlled and very promising. We got Hembree and Escobar for Peavy. They were young.

 

I do agree with your point.

[Bellhorn04]

I never said DD left worse contracts than Ben.

 

That being said:

 

DD to Bloom

$31M x 3 Price

$30M x 3 + $27.5M x 2 Sale

$17M x 3 Eovaldi

 

The hindsight jury measures these things on 'subsequent events'.

 

You can already measure the loss on Price.

 

2020 0

2021 16 mill

2022 16 mill

Total 32 mill

 

Sale's & Eovaldi's are adjusted down for 2020.

 

The rest we'll have to wait for.

[notin]

The hindsight jury measures these things on 'subsequent events'.

 

You can already measure the loss on Price.

 

2020 0

2021 16 mill

2022 16 mill

Total 32 mill

 

Sale's & Eovaldi's are adjusted down for 2020.

 

The rest we'll have to wait for.

 

 

But do you think having Price on the books affected the ability to retain Betts? It might be more than just overlapping years.

[Bellhorn04]

But do you think having Price on the books affected the ability to retain Betts? It might be more than just overlapping years.

 

There will always be debatable points. But I've already made my guess, which is that it wasn't the present payroll situation that compelled them to trade Mookie, it was the $400 million it would have taken to retain him.

[Bellhorn04]

Another question is whether we include Pedroia in the list of bloated contracts handed by Ben to DD. It wasn't at the time, but it certainly became one.

[notin]

There will always be debatable points. But I've already made my guess, which is that it wasn't the present payroll situation that compelled them to trade Mookie, it was the $400 million it would have taken to retain him.

 

Well, we do know under certain conditions $365 million could retain him. Whether or not being out of Boston was one of those conditions is another matter.

 

But if we go extremely hypothetical (based on my old commentary about transactions in the 2015-2016 offseason), and we revisit the Price/Kimbrel acquisitons.

 

Dombrowski traded for Kimbrel and signed Price. History has shown it is cheaper to sign a closer (as they rarely demand 7 year deals) and trade for a starter. Had the Sox signed a closer that offseason and traded for a starter, would they have been off? Price was a good pitcher, but was only worth 10.6 fWAR for the Red sox from 2016-2019. Similar pitchers (whose availablity I cannot guarantee) include Chris Archer, Lance Lynn, Gio Gonzalez, and Tanner Roark. If the Sox had dealt for one of them and signed an available closer that off-season and received similar production, resetting the tax limit without Price ($31mill AAV) and without my oft-questioned extension of Eovaldi ($17mill AAV) might have made it possible to reset the tax limit after 2019. Now, if that had happened, and yeah, there can be no certainty here, but do you think it might have been possible to retain Betts?

 

Henry's generosity does seem to be rather mercurial, and it appears that he really changes his habits based on spending the Luxury Tax payments that have no ROI.

 

I know. A more hypothetical post is hard to see here. But it seems like too many moves were made without ever considering that Betts would be the unaffordable one. And I have not even delved into the Sale extension, which is looking more and more like Sale jumped at it knowing his own health situation. Why else would the poster boy for Underpaid Contract Extensions leap at a second one?

[Bellhorn04]

Well, we do know under certain conditions $365 million could retain him. Whether or not being out of Boston was one of those conditions is another matter.

 

But if we go extremely hypothetical (based on my old commentary about transactions in the 2015-2016 offseason), and we revisit the Price/Kimbrel acquisitons.

 

Dombrowski traded for Kimbrel and signed Price. History has shown it is cheaper to sign a closer (as they rarely demand 7 year deals) and trade for a starter. Had the Sox signed a closer that offseason and traded for a starter, would they have been off? Price was a good pitcher, but was only worth 10.6 fWAR for the Red sox from 2016-2019. Similar pitchers (whose availablity I cannot guarantee) include Chris Archer, Lance Lynn, Gio Gonzalez, and Tanner Roark. If the Sox had dealt for one of them and signed an available closer that off-season and received similar production, resetting the tax limit without Price ($31mill AAV) and without my oft-questioned extension of Eovaldi ($17mill AAV) might have made it possible to reset the tax limit after 2019. Now, if that had happened, and yeah, there can be no certainty here, but do you think it might have been possible to retain Betts?

 

Henry's generosity does seem to be rather mercurial, and it appears that he really changes his habits based on spending the Luxury Tax payments that have no ROI.

 

I know. A more hypothetical post is hard to see here. But it seems like too many moves were made without ever considering that Betts would be the unaffordable one. And I have not even delved into the Sale extension, which is looking more and more like Sale jumped at it knowing his own health situation. Why else would the poster boy for Underpaid Contract Extensions leap at a second one?

 

Maybe this should be in the why was Mookie traded thread.

[dgalehouse]

We need to be more objective. We need to consider results . Dombrowski made two major trades . Kimbrel and Sale . We had Kimbrel for three years . A hundred and something saves . Three times an All Star. Sale is still here . He has been one of the best , most dominant starters in the game . All Star starting pitcher twice . We beat the Yankees . Won the A.L. East THREE straight years . Never happened before . And we are crying about losing the likes of Logan Allen and Michael Kopech ? Neither is currently on an active roster . They have a total of three MLB wins between them so far . Dombrowski may not be very lovable . We may not like his style of dealing prospects , but let's try to be fair about it . When Bloom wins three straight A.L. East titles , I will be the first to applaud him.

[Bellhorn04]

We need to be more objective. We need to consider results . Dombrowski made two major trades . Kimbrel and Sale . We had Kimbrel for three years . A hundred and something saves . Three times an All Star. Sale is still here . He has been one of the best , most dominant starters in the game . All Star starting pitcher twice . We beat the Yankees . Won the A.L. East THREE straight years . Never happened before . And we are crying about losing the likes of Logan Allen and Michael Kopech ? Neither is currently on an active roster . They have a total of three MLB wins between them so far . Dombrowski may not be very lovable . We may not like his style of dealing prospects , but let's try to be fair about it . When Bloom wins three straight A.L. East titles , I will be the first to applaud him.

 

The results are important, of course. It's just that every baseball GM walks into a different situation.

[dgalehouse]

The results are important, of course. It's just that every baseball GM walks into a different situation.

 

True . Dombrowski walked into a situation where the Sox finished in the A.L. East cellar the previous two years . He inherited a farm system that was well stocked , albeit with perhaps some overrated, over hyped youngsters . He made the most of it . The turnaround was immediate. For that , he is despised? I just don't understand it . Bloom deserves a chance to show his own results. That is fair . I will try to be patient.

[mvp 78]

True . Dombrowski walked into a situation where the Sox finished in the A.L. East cellar the previous two years . He inherited a farm system that was well stocked , albeit with perhaps some overrated, over hyped youngsters . He made the most of it . The turnaround was immediate. For that , he is despised? I just don't understand it . Bloom deserves a chance to show his own results. That is fair . I will try to be patient.

 

Every GM is despised at some point. For example, A700 despised Theo UNTIL Carl Crawford was signed. For that offseason, he could do no wrong.

[dgalehouse]

Every GM is despised at some point. For example, A700 despised Theo UNTIL Carl Crawford was signed. For that offseason, he could do no wrong.

After 2004 and 2007 , Theo should have been awarded the despise - free , shield of excellence. Again , results count for a lot in my book.

[dgalehouse]

After 2004 and 2007 , Theo should have been awarded the despise - free , shield of excellence. Again , results count for a lot in my book.

 

Well actually, I don't have a book. But if I had a book , results would count for a lot .

[mvp 78]

After 2004 and 2007 , Theo should have been awarded the despise - free , shield of excellence. Again , results count for a lot in my book.

 

I think the majority of us agreed with that position. There were a few curmudgeons left over though.

[notin]

After 2004 and 2007 , Theo should have been awarded the despise - free , shield of excellence. Again , results count for a lot in my book.

 

Hey you were on that other website for a while. If you were there in 2007, you might remember we had one poster who went by the moniker bigfoot14b or something close to that. Anyway, he was ripping Theo (whom he derisively called "Guitar Boy") right up through the 2007 World Series...

[dgalehouse]

Hey you were on that other website for a while. If you were there in 2007, you might remember we had one poster who went by the moniker bigfoot14b or something close to that. Anyway, he was ripping Theo (whom he derisively called "Guitar Boy") right up through the 2007 World Series...

 

2004 alone should have been enough for a lifetime pass. That was arguably the greatest moment in baseball history for Red Sox Nation.

[Kimmi]

We need to be more objective. We need to consider results . Dombrowski made two major trades . Kimbrel and Sale . We had Kimbrel for three years . A hundred and something saves . Three times an All Star. Sale is still here . He has been one of the best , most dominant starters in the game . All Star starting pitcher twice . We beat the Yankees . Won the A.L. East THREE straight years . Never happened before . And we are crying about losing the likes of Logan Allen and Michael Kopech ? Neither is currently on an active roster . They have a total of three MLB wins between them so far . Dombrowski may not be very lovable . We may not like his style of dealing prospects , but let's try to be fair about it . When Bloom wins three straight A.L. East titles , I will be the first to applaud him.

 

What is it that allowed Dombrowski to acquire Kimbrel and Sale? And sign Price, for that matter.

[Kimmi]

True . Dombrowski walked into a situation where the Sox finished in the A.L. East cellar the previous two years . He inherited a farm system that was well stocked , albeit with perhaps some overrated, over hyped youngsters . He made the most of it . The turnaround was immediate. For that , he is despised? I just don't understand it . Bloom deserves a chance to show his own results. That is fair . I will try to be patient.

 

I am willing to bet that the turnaround would have been immediate with or without Dombrowski.

[Kimmi]

Theo is the GOAT. Period.

[dgalehouse]

I am willing to bet that the turnaround would have been immediate with or without Dombrowski.

 

I would say that is debatable. But we'll never know .

[dgalehouse]

Theo is the GOAT. Period.

 

I would say that one is not debatable. Agree completely.

[vegasbob]

This is actually a serious question for those on the trade analysis sites: Could you get a legit #3 or #4 starter for a package of Benintendi (with healed ribs) and Matthew Barnes ?? If Bloom could, I would highly encourage it. Neither has shown that they are much more than middle range pieces and both could prosper from a change of scenery. Or is the Roenicke administration and coaching ( Hyer and Bush) not able to correct the somewhat obvious flaws in their games. Both are close to being headcases, IMO, and not the best choices in a rebuild towards 2021. Edited September 9, 2020 by vegasbob

[Bellhorn04]

This is actually a serious question for those on the trade analysis sites: Could you get a legit 33 or #4 starter for a package of Benintendi 9(with healed ribs) and Matthew Barnes ?? If Bloom could, I would highly encourage it. Neither has shown that they are much more than middle range pieces and both could prosper from a change of scenery. Or is the Roenicke administration and coaching ( Hyer and Bush) not able to correct the somewhat obvious flaws in their games. Both are close to being headcases, IMO, and not the best choices in a rebuild towards 2021.

 

I would prefer to give a Benintendi a chance to rebound in 2021.

 

As for Barnes, who knows. He might be cooked. Or maybe he needs to be moved to a lower leverage spot next year. We're desperately short on bullpen arms, needless to say.

 

You're probably not going to get very good value in return if you trade them this offseason.

[Bellhorn04]

I would say that is debatable. But we'll never know .

 

I think Dombrowski had a fine season in 2018. Hiring Cora, signing JDM to a reasonable deal, and then the deadline acquisitions of Eovaldi, Pearce and Kinsler.

[moonslav59]

The hindsight jury measures these things on 'subsequent events'.

 

You can already measure the loss on Price.

 

2020 0

2021 16 mill

2022 16 mill

Total 32 mill

 

Sale's & Eovaldi's are adjusted down for 2020.

 

The rest we'll have to wait for.

 

I'd say the value of Price is hard to measure. DD left Bloom with the full contract. What Bloom did with it can be measured separately.

 

If Price sucks, Bloom "saved"us $15M a year. One can view the Price deal as part of the reason we traded Betts.

 

The fact is, DD left Bloom with the whole Price contract, and a hell of a lot more money on the books in Price, Sale and Eovaldi than what HRam, Pando & Castillo. Sure, those 3 gave us nothing and even negative value, but the value of the three DD left us vs the cost can be viewed as worse in net value, or at least close to the same.

 

It's not an easy comp, and I can't see either side being a slam dunk.

 

On the farm value issue, there is no debate. Ben left DD a way better farm (on paper) than DD left Bloom.

[moonslav59]

I think Dombrowski had a fine season in 2018. Hiring Cora, signing JDM to a reasonable deal, and then the deadline acquisitions of Eovaldi, Pearce and Kinsler.

 

It was a spectacular year, and many of DD's "smaller moves" turned out to be as important, if not more important than the Kimbrel, Sale or Price moves.

 

DD deserves all the props he gets. That was the greatest season in Sox history, if you take away the emotion from the curse-breaking 2004 season.

 

To me, the cliff we are living, now, was well worth it. I'm glad we hired Theo, Ben and DD. I'm hopeful Bloom will join the club, but only time will tell.

[Kimmi]

I would say that is debatable. But we'll never know .

 

I have no doubt in my mind. That's how good the team was before Dombrowsi came on board.

 

It didn't have to be Ben. It could have been pretty much any GM.

[Kimmi]

I would say that one is not debatable. Agree completely.

 

Ah, we finally agree on something.

[Kimmi]

I would prefer to give a Benintendi a chance to rebound in 2021.

 

As for Barnes, who knows. He might be cooked. Or maybe he needs to be moved to a lower leverage spot next year. We're desperately short on bullpen arms, needless to say.

 

You're probably not going to get very good value in return if you trade them this offseason.

 

Agree with this.