Red Sox 2020 Starting Rotation

[moonslav59]

How many? What %?

 

What do you think changed in the game?

 

From 1960-1979, there were 30 pitchers with 2,500+ IP (This does not count pitchers who got more than that in other time frames that overlapped these arbitrary dates. 57 pitchers had over 2,000 IP. 12 had over 3,400 IP!

 

From 2000-2019, there were 17 pitchers with over 2,500 IP and 44 with over 2,000. Only CC Sabathia had over 3,400 IP.

 

It appears that about 12-13 pitchers were iron men back from 1960-1979. If you take them away, the rest of the numbers are pretty close. (Also, there are more teams and more pitchers from 2000-2019 than there was from 1960-1979 dues to expansion.)

 

[notin]

The only active pitcher with 3,000 IP (less than half of Young's career total) is Bartolo Colon, who is only technically active. Verlander is 12 IP away and Greinke is 93 IP away. Both are likely to eclipse that total next season.

 

Many historians believe Young did throw in excess of 100mph, but I don't think this has ever been validated. Clearly he was a bit of a freak, however, as he did probably throw a lot harder than many of his counterparts. Of course, velocity might not have been as important to their success, as they were legally allowed to throw spitballs..

[Bellhorn04]

I suppose that's true. I'm thinking about figure skaters (female in this case), who not too long ago were completing double jumps when at the top of their games. These days, it's hard to compete if you're not doing a quad. That seems like an unnatural strain on one's body.

 

I think the frequency of Tommy John surgeries shows that the structure of human arm ligaments does not match up well with what being a pitcher asks them to do.

[mvp 78]

Cy Young, for example, threw at least 300 IP for 17 consecutive years. The streak broke for him at age 40, when he was limited to 299 IP...

 

Yes, let's just list off a whole bunch of HOFers to prove the point that a large % of pitchers back in the day through over 200 innings. Good argument.

[mvp 78]

I think the frequency of Tommy John surgeries shows that the structure of human arm ligaments does not match up well with what being a pitcher asks them to do.

 

Hard agree.

[notin]

Yes, let's just list off a whole bunch of HOFers to prove the point that a large % of pitchers back in the day through over 200 innings. Good argument.

 

1. It was an example, but I can get you a TON more data year by year if you like. Click away. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/IP_top_ten.shtml

 

2. It was AN INCREDIBLE EXAMPLE. Young didn't throw a meager 200 IP. He threw over THREE HUNDRED IP, and often topped 400 IP.

 

 

In the extremely likely event you do not click away, it might be worth noting you do not see less than 300 IP leading the league routinely until around 1981...

Edited August 24, 2020 by notin

[mvp 78]

1. It was an example, but I can get you a TON more data year by year if you like. Click away. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/IP_top_ten.shtml

 

2. It was AN INCREDIBLE EXAMPLE. Young didn't throw a meager 200 IP. He threw over THREE HUNDRED IP, and often topped 400 IP.

 

 

In the extremely likely event you do not click away, it might be worth noting you do not see less than 300 IP leading the league routinely until around 1981...

 

In looking at some of those leaders:

 

You think Koufax's career would have extended past age 30 if he didn't throw so many innings? Catfish Hunter saw a dramatic decrease in production after age 30.

 

Lots of soft tossers like Niekro, Hough and Perry leading the league. You can't really succeed with that type of pitching anymore.

[notin]

In looking at some of those leaders:

 

You think Koufax's career would have extended past age 30 if he didn't throw so many innings? Catfish Hunter saw a dramatic decrease in production after age 30.

 

Lots of soft tossers like Niekro, Hough and Perry leading the league. You can't really succeed with that type of pitching anymore.

 

Look at the top ten for 1969. Juan Marichal threw 299 2/3 IP and came in tenth in IP that year.

 

It is odd that after the shortened 1981 season, no on ever topped 300 again. And after 1985, no one ever topped 290. A lot of that might be because were entering the Closer Era of pitcher management, and the closer often came in long before the ninth. inning. The rise of the Closer Strategy, which then lead to the specialized bullpens of today, basically killed the complete game and appears to have done a hatchet job on pitcher IP.

 

And now we are in full blown Death of Starting Pitching, as Tampa has shown the effectiveness of spreading out the IP with their use of openers. (Kansas City tried this a few years back, too, but was not as successful.)

[notin]

In looking at some of those leaders:

 

You think Koufax's career would have extended past age 30 if he didn't throw so many innings? Catfish Hunter saw a dramatic decrease in production after age 30.

 

Lots of soft tossers like Niekro, Hough and Perry leading the league. You can't really succeed with that type of pitching anymore.

 

Did you see Greinke throw that 54 mph eephus pitch for a strike the other day? Can't toss the ball much softer than that...

[mvp 78]

Look at the top ten for 1969. Juan Marichal threw 299 2/3 IP and came in tenth in IP that year.

 

It is odd that after the shortened 1981 season, no on ever topped 300 again. And after 1985, no one ever topped 290. A lot of that might be because were entering the Closer Era of pitcher management, and the closer often came in long before the ninth. inning. The rise of the Closer Strategy, which then lead to the specialized bullpens of today, basically killed the complete game and appears to have done a hatchet job on pitcher IP.

 

And now we are in full blown Death of Starting Pitching, as Tampa has shown the effectiveness of spreading out the IP with their use of openers. (Kansas City tried this a few years back, too, but was not as successful.)

 

And if statistics show that a starter is less effective after the 2nd or 3rd time through the order, there's no reason to keep them out there just for them to throw innings. Are relievers better than they used to be?

 

If you have millions and millions of dollars invested in a player, are you more likely to micromanage their health?

[mvp 78]

[/i][/b]

 

Did you see Greinke throw that 54 mph eephus pitch for a strike the other day? Can't toss the ball much softer than that...

 

Were Niekro/Perry/Hough also throwing 90mph?

[notin]

And if statistics show that a starter is less effective after the 2nd or 3rd time through the order, there's no reason to keep them out there just for them to throw innings. Are relievers better than they used to be?

 

If you have millions and millions of dollars invested in a player, are you more likely to micromanage their health?

 

Escalating salaries is certainly a big factor now, but we really didn't see those take off until around 1990. Since that was also around the time the closer became a limited ninth inning specialist, I couldn't tell you if one factor was bigger than the other...

[notin]

Were Niekro/Perry/Hough also throwing 90mph?

 

Not even if you added up two of their pitches.

 

But Jamie Moyer had plenty of success soft-tossing the ball into his late 40's..

[notin]

Were Niekro/Perry/Hough also throwing 90mph?

 

Carlton and Morris were throwing that hard. The last pitcher to throw 290 IP was Blyleven, who was a soft-tosser with his endless stream of curveballs...

[Nick]

Not even if you added up two of their pitches.

 

But Jamie Moyer had plenty of success soft-tossing the ball into his late 40's..

 

Do we need to expand the roster size to accomodate more pitchers? Just wondering......

[mvp 78]

Do we need to expand the roster size to accomodate more pitchers? Just wondering......

 

I was thinking this as well. What's the purpose of a 25 man roster in the 1920's if your starters are all going over 200 innings. Did rosters carry more positional players? Seems like there is less of a need for relievers back then. Some of the greatest all time relievers also weren't 1 inning guys like they are now.

 

Maybe the active roster should be 28 guys?

[mvp 78]

Not even if you added up two of their pitches.

 

But Jamie Moyer had plenty of success soft-tossing the ball into his late 40's..

 

That wuss Moyer couldn't even throw 240 innings! Bet he couldn't carry Hippo's Vaughn's jockstrap.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Blame spans from Little League to lacrosse to Dennis Eckersly. For those who cite old-timey hardball -- when kids played every day all summer (and not in uniform, especially not ruled by adults), pitcher really was an actual position; not a subgroup of the roster. One guy on the neighborhood team played shortstop, another was catcher, and one guy was always the pitcher. Imagine the stamina of those hurlers who made it to the pros...

 

Nowadays with so many other interests vying for kids' time (including lacrosse as a direct conflict in the spring), young arms are throwing less than ever. That includes Little League, where there are now strict weekly limitations (either number of batters or innings), purportedly to protect shoulders and elbows -- but also, so cut-throat coaches don't use a stud to dominate competition. In the leagues my son has played the past few years, managers rotate every child on their rosters around the diamond, including the mound (which is great for spectators who love walkathons, and for outfielders who collect dandelions).

 

MLB changed big time with the success of Eck, the first automatic one-inning closer. Just about every other club has been seeking to replicate the virtual improbable ever since (except for the Rivera Yankees); like today's shifts, openers and other copy cat trends. Before the 9th inning man, relief aces were workhorses, regularly throwing over 100 frames, with lots of two, three or more inning stints... like when ex-Red Sox Sparky Lyle led the Yankees in IP in winning the last two games of the 1976 ALCS.

[notin]

That wuss Moyer couldn't even throw 240 innings! Bet he couldn't carry Hippo's Vaughn's jockstrap.

 

Would he want to?

 

I have to think one of the perks of being a famous MLB pitcher is no longer having to carry around the jockstraps of guys named "Hippo"...

[notin]

Blame spans from Little League to lacrosse to Dennis Eckersly. For those who cite old-timey hardball -- when kids played every day all summer (and not in uniform, especially not ruled by adults), pitcher really was an actual position; not a subgroup of the roster. One guy on the neighborhood team played shortstop, another was catcher, and one guy was always the pitcher. Imagine the stamina of those hurlers who made it to the pros...

 

Nowadays with so many other interests vying for kids' time (including lacrosse as a direct conflict in the spring), young arms are throwing less than ever. That includes Little League, where there are now strict weekly limitations (either number of batters or innings), purportedly to protect shoulders and elbows -- but also, so cut-throat coaches don't use a stud to dominate competition. In the leagues my son has played the past few years, managers rotate every child on their rosters around the diamond, including the mound (which is great for spectators who love walkathons, and for outfielders who collect dandelions).

 

MLB changed big time with the success of Eck, the first automatic one-inning closer. Just about every other club has been seeking to replicate the virtual improbable ever since (except for the Rivera Yankees); like today's shifts, openers and other copy cat trends. Before the 9th inning man, relief aces were workhorses, regularly throwing over 100 frames, with lots of two, three or more inning stints... like when ex-Red Sox Sparky Lyle led the Yankees in IP in winning the last two games of the 1976 ALCS.

 

I do think one of the big problems today is the radar gun. Lucas Giolito had TJ surgery in high school. Probably because he had a 98mph fastball that he threw far too often. Does anyone really need to throw 98mph to get high school hitters out?

 

But those lofty radar gun readings lead to scholarships or signing bonuses, so kids will continue to try to get them...

[notin]

I was thinking this as well. What's the purpose of a 25 man roster in the 1920's if your starters are all going over 200 innings. Did rosters carry more positional players? Seems like there is less of a need for relievers back then. Some of the greatest all time relievers also weren't 1 inning guys like they are now.

 

Maybe the active roster should be 28 guys?

 

They didn't have dedicated relievers. Relievers were starters on their off day.

 

They also didn't have DHs.

 

Looking at the 1903 Giants (with Mathewson and McGinnity), that duo appeared in 100 games and started 90 of them. Their B-R page only lists 7 pitchers, and two of them appeared in 2 games or less.

 

Of course, they also only list 13 position players. Were rosters smaller back then?

[mvp 78]

They didn't have dedicated relievers. Relievers were starters on their off day.

 

They also didn't have DHs.

 

Looking at the 1903 Giants (with Mathewson and McGinnity), that duo appeared in 100 games and started 90 of them. Their B-R page only lists 7 pitchers, and two of them appeared in 2 games or less.

 

Of course, they also only list 13 position players. Were rosters smaller back then?

 

Not sure about 1903. Rosters were set to 25 in 1910.

[moonslav59]

Carlton and Morris were throwing that hard. The last pitcher to throw 290 IP was Blyleven, who was a soft-tosser with his endless stream of curveballs...

 

Throwing hard curves might be harder on the arm than throwing 94 for 20 years.

[harmony]

Not even if you added up two of their pitches.

 

But Jamie Moyer had plenty of success soft-tossing the ball into his late 40's..

Jamie Moyer led the way on the five-man 2003 Seattle Mariner rotation that did not miss a start in combining for 1,027.2 innings.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/2003-pitching.shtml

 

Of course, the Mariners missed the postseason nevertheless.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I do think one of the big problems today is the radar gun. Lucas Giolito had TJ surgery in high school. Probably because he had a 98mph fastball that he threw far too often. Does anyone really need to throw 98mph to get high school hitters out?

 

But those lofty radar gun readings lead to scholarships or signing bonuses, so kids will continue to try to get them...

 

Agreed; it's all about velo these days. It's why the Rays are so successful, bringing in arm after arm with 96+ heat (and why a team like the 2020 Sox, with guys like Weber and Hart, who have to be perfect with every pitch, aren't). I'd say the MLB's increased average gas is actually what's led to the constant -- and obnoxious -- check-the-check flinch strike calls from fist-pumping baseline umpires; no one check-swings at a fastball, even out of the zone, but any fastballer with a sharp breaking pitch causes batters with the best hand-eye coordination in the world to basically guess.

 

Imagine going to work at a job and -- for the one aspect you do best, the one that pays you the most -- you have to guess every day? Pro batters are stockbrokers.

[Kimmi]

I think the frequency of Tommy John surgeries shows that the structure of human arm ligaments does not match up well with what being a pitcher asks them to do.

 

That is likely true.

 

There is still some disconnect there for me.

[Kimmi]

And if statistics show that a starter is less effective after the 2nd or 3rd time through the order, there's no reason to keep them out there just for them to throw innings. Are relievers better than they used to be?

 

If you have millions and millions of dollars invested in a player, are you more likely to micromanage their health?

 

If starting pitchers are only going to pitch 5 innings or fewer a game, it's time for a salary reduction.

[a700hitter]

If starting pitchers are only going to pitch 5 innings or fewer a game, it's time for a salary reduction.

As Connie Mack said (I am paraphrasing) "You will finish your game, because I don't intend on paying an additional pitcher." If they aren't going to go 5, they aren't worth $20-30 million/year.

[a700hitter]

Red Sox should have claimed Carson Fullmer. He was worth a shot.

[moonslav59]

Red Sox should have claimed Carson Fullmer. He was worth a shot.

 

I wondered the same thing.