A Realistic View at 2020: Part II

[moonslav59]

We're likely not done with off season moves, but I guess it's time for Part II.

 

Here's the link to Part I: https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19484-A-Realistic-View-at-2020-Part-I

 

Wow, no Betts. No Price. No Luxury Tax.

 

Our slim ring chances for 2020 took a big hit, but our extended outlook appears much brighter. Back to 2020: here's my take on the depth chart by position (Red are the likely 26 man roster players- some due to no options or rule 5 restrictions).

 

SP: Sale, ERod, Eovaldi, Perez, Weber

Johnson, Houck, Velazquez, Hart, Shawaryn, McGrath, Kent, Reyes, Ward

 

RP: Workman, Barnes, Taylor, Walden, D Hernandez, Brasier, Hembree, Brice

Brewer, Osich, (see SP'ers), Mazza, Springs, Hall, Poyner

 

C: Vazquez, Plawecki, Lucroy, Centeno, Bandy, Wong, A Rei

 

1B: Moreland, Chavis, Dalbec, Ockimey, Longhi, Joseph

 

2B: (Pedroia IL), Peraza, Chavis, Lin, Arauz, Chatham, Marco, Downs

 

3B: Devers, Dalbec, Chavis, Lin, Marco, Witte

 

SS: Bogaerts, Lin, Arauz, Chatham, Marco, de la Guerra, Downs

 

LF: Benintendi, JD, Pillar, (Moreland/Chavis), Puello, Lin

 

CF: JBJ, Pillar, Puello, Lin, Wilson, Duran, Castillo

 

RF: Verdugo, Pillar, JD, Puello, Wilson, Duran, Castillo

 

DH: Martinez, Dalbec, Chavis

 

We need a lot to go right to be a top contender, but it could happen. More likely, we'll fight hard to make the wild card game and hope for a surprise.

 

The Myers trade is on the horizon. Spring training games begin, soon. Spring is in the air.

 

GO SOX!

 

[notin]

Yeah! Wil Myers! Said no one ever.

 

Hopefully Quantrill has his dad’s rubber arm...

[notin]

So here’s my question.

 

If the Sox add Myers and Quantrill, what names are no longer red? You list 26, but not Arauz, whom hopefully Bloom either makes a deal for, or sends back.

 

I would guess Weber, but that’s been my guess for a while. But Weber and Lin get DFA?

[moonslav59]

Yeah! Wil Myers! Said no one ever.

 

Hopefully Quantrill has his dad’s rubber arm...

 

I'm curious about the rumor we get more than just Quantrill, but I guess it depends on who we give to SD.

 

I'm thinking Chavis or Dalbec, so maybe it's someone else decent.

[notin]

I'm curious about the rumor we get more than just Quantrill, but I guess it depends on who we give to SD.

 

I'm thinking Chavis or Dalbec, so maybe it's someone else decent.

 

So far, no names, and possibly no one significant...

[moonslav59]

So far, no names, and possibly no one significant...

 

Yes, it could be a nobody for just Myers, cash and Quantrill.

[Nick]

Yes, it could be a nobody for just Myers, cash and Quantrill.

 

No way in hell Bloom is going to send one of our top 30 prospects. By assuming half of Myers' contract, we are simply buying prospects.

[moonslav59]

No way in hell Bloom is going to send one of our top 30 prospects. By assuming half of Myers' contract, we are simply buying prospects.

 

Of course, but adding Chavis or Dalbec (one is likely blocked) for another prospect or two who fill positions of higher need (pitching) might make sense.

 

I'm fine with sending just a nobody for Quantrill, Myers and a heap of cash.

[notin]

Of course, but adding Chavis or Dalbec (one is likely blocked) for another prospect or two who fill positions of higher need (pitching) might make sense.

 

I'm fine with sending just a nobody for Quantrill, Myers and a heap of cash.

 

The funny thing is, the Sox still lose out on that deal if the cash is anything less than $39 million, per the BTV Simulator. That's how negative Myers' contract is, even after it's been upgraded.

 

They still need to throw in Baez and lower the cash to $30mill to even this out

[Hitch]

Most reports I've seen suggest Myers, Cal Quantril and Luis Campusano (or possibly Gabriel Arias) with not a lot going the other way.

 

I make that trade in a heart beat.

Edited February 20, 2020 by Hitch

[jacksonianmarch]

Red Sox 2020 season Opening Day roster

WWW.MLB.COM

---

BOSTON -- The Red Sox are finally ready to start their 2020 season, and they will do so with a 30-man roster that they set on Thursday. The roster will dip to 28 two weeks into the season, then to 26 two weeks after that. “So I talked about the

 

A prediction on the roster from yesterday

[Slasher9]

time to dust off Clay's spring training locker.....

[moonslav59]

The funny thing is, the Sox still lose out on that deal if the cash is anything less than $39 million, per the BTV Simulator. That's how negative Myers' contract is, even after it's been upgraded.

 

They still need to throw in Baez and lower the cash to $30mill to even this out

 

Since the luxury tax number is so much lower than the actual money owed, I'm not sure the BTV break even point needs to be met.

 

Maybe, we get Myers, $25M, Quantrill and Arias for some long shot prospect.

[mvp 78]

Myers and Quantril for PTBNL.

[moonslav59]

Myers and Quantril for PTBNL.

 

Don't forget the heap of cash.

[mvp 78]

I think there's a legitimate competition between Arauz and Lin. I wonder if the Sox stick with Arauz and try to sneak Lin through waivers at the very end of ST.

[mvp 78]

Don't forget the heap of cash.

 

That's assumed if you're taking on Myers. At least 50% of that salary needs to be paid by SD or I wouldn't do it.

[mvp 78]

And it's not like they are sending cash to Henry, they are just covering a portion of Myers' salary.

[notin]

And it's not like they are sending cash to Henry, they are just covering a portion of Myers' salary.

 

Well, they're covering Myers' salary by sending cash over to Henry. If the Red Sox acquire Myers and then trade him at some point in the future, they can still keep that cash and deal Myers with no money. Although it's not likely anyone would want Myers at that price...

[mvp 78]

Well, they're covering Myers' salary by sending cash over to Henry. If the Red Sox acquire Myers and then trade him at some point in the future, they can still keep that cash and deal Myers with no money. Although it's not likely anyone would want Myers at that price...

 

I don't think I realized they just sent over $$$. Is it a lump sum or do they pay it over time?

[notin]

I don't think I realized they just sent over $$$. Is it a lump sum or do they pay it over time?

 

Probably depends on how the teams work everything out...

[moonslav59]

That's assumed if you're taking on Myers. At least 50% of that salary needs to be paid by SD or I wouldn't do it.

 

If they gave us more prospects, I might demand less money.

[moonslav59]

I don't think I realized they just sent over $$$. Is it a lump sum or do they pay it over time?

 

My guess is $10M a year for 3 years.

[notin]

Are these talks still ongoing? There has been ZERO buzz for several days, and the San Diego front office is notoriously leaky about stuff like this...

[mvp 78]

If they gave us more prospects, I might demand less money.

 

So you don't care about the CBT then?

[notin]

So you don't care about the CBT then?

 

Welll, MYers does top out at $13.8 mill AAV if the Sox take no money. So if they get $10mill per, it's $3.8mill against the CBT. Is getting $5mill per year with a $8.8 mill CBT hit and another (hopefully) good prospect worth it?

[jad]

Are you suggesting that with all that sudden cap space, Castillo comes up? (That's a bad look! RS traded their best player in order to get the cap space to bring up a grossly overpaid minor leaguer? But for Castillo's sake, I suppose I hope it happens.)

[moonslav59]

So you don't care about the CBT then?

 

Of course, I do, but we can still stay under by taking a little less cash.

 

I want to build the farm, too, and it's a tight balance.

[mvp 78]

Welll, MYers does top out at $13.8 mill AAV if the Sox take no money. So if they get $10mill per, it's $3.8mill against the CBT. Is getting $5mill per year with a $8.8 mill CBT hit and another (hopefully) good prospect worth it?

 

$1.2M constraint against the CBT for someone who may never make the show? IDK. I'd take that risk, but there were a lot of people on here quite concerned about the proximity to the CBT.

[moonslav59]

Welll, MYers does top out at $13.8 mill AAV if the Sox take no money. So if they get $10mill per, it's $3.8mill against the CBT. Is getting $5mill per year with a $8.8 mill CBT hit and another (hopefully) good prospect worth it?

 

I don't think it works like that.

 

I think, if SD pays half his salary, we are charged half his lux tax cost ($6.9M) not $3.8M.