How Much is the Most You'd Pay Mookie?

[Elktonnick]

So you think Bloom needs to wait for penalties, but also that his waiting is clearly “paralysis by analysis.”

 

There’s absolutely no pleasing some people. Bloom could extend Betts, surgically replace Sale’s arm and Price’s wrist on his own, acquire Trout for Marco Hernandez with Anaheim paying the whole deal, and do it all in one day, and your first comment would be “BUT WE HAVE NO CLOSER!!”

 

No it isn't paralysis by analysis it is simply waiting until new unknown data becomes known.

[notin]

No it isn't paralysis by analysis it is simply waiting until new unknown data becomes known.

 

Yes, and you have accused Bloom’s inactivity of being just that. And now you’re condemning any new activity without all the facts as being impudent...

[Elktonnick]

Yes, and you accused Bloom of doing exactly that as the reason for his inaction...

 

I believe the MLB investigation and possible new penalties changed the equation.

[moonslav59]

Here is the fundamental problem. One shouldn't make any significant trades based on incomplete information. The great unknown is what penalties will MLB impose if any on the Red Sox. Will these penalties involve future draft picks? If so, how many? And, will such penalties involve one, two or more years? Until this is known one really can not develop a meaningful complete strategic plan on how to rebuild the farm. So I wouldn't be in any hurry to trade Betts unless some team makes an incredible offer that would allow me to reasonably achieve my goals regardless of the penalties imposed. I simply doubt any team will make such an offer. Moreover I think Kevin Kennedy's comments reveal reasonable concerns about Verdugo which I suspect Chaim is well aware of and may have caused him some pause.

 

I was on the fence before any of this crap came up,so I'm not basing my position on what comes out of the scandal.

 

This is NOT the 2018 team. We are missing 7 of our top 15 PAs players (all with 143+ PAs)

#6 Nunez

#9 Holt

#10 Leon

#12 Swihart

#13 HanRam

#14 Pearce (playoff hero)

#15 Kinsler

(I know, many look like addition by subtraction, but replacing Nunez & Holt with Peraz does not look very encouraging.)

Pitching:

We've lost 6 of the top 13 IP pitchers and 6 of the top 9:

#1 Porcello

#5 Johnson (technically still in the system)

#7 Pomeranz

#8 Kelly (playoff help)

#9 Kimbrel

#13 Wright (2.68 ERA)

 

Yes, Devers, Bogey & Vaz all look better, but many others look worse or more questionable.

 

Yes, we can win in 2020, but at what cost to the future? Are the slim odds on 2020 worth pretty much giving up an 2021-2023?

 

It's at least a (yes, highly speculative) valid question to ask.

 

[moonslav59]

I believe the MLB investigation and possible new penalties changed the equation.

 

It tipped the balance for me, but I was leaning towards a rebuild mode before the story broke.

[Elktonnick]

It tipped the balance for me, but I was leaning towards a rebuild mode before the story broke.

 

Without knowing how the penalties will affect future draft picks, Bloom and the Red Sox should keep their powder dry until MLB makes its final decision on what if any penalties are forthcoming.

[notin]

I believe the MLB investigation and possible new penalties changed the equation.

 

But you have no idea when Bloom knew about it. Surely you can’t think he learned the same time you did...

[notin]

Actually suspecting losing future draft picks makes trading Betts the right move.

 

With you think this 85 win team can make up 19 games through sheer will power, or 2020 is a bust. While many in the Keep Betts crowd advocate “dealing with 2021 in 2021 and not a second before,” the problems will be obvious. No Betts. No replacement. And if the reset still exists with penalties, the Sox won’t do that either.

 

Since there is a chance MLB takes draft picks to further the damage (and zero chance of MLB adding draft picks for kicks), the strategy of getting ahead is clearly the best. If Bloom guesses wrong and MLB takes no picks, is that really a bad sign for the future?

[Elktonnick]

But you have no idea when Bloom knew about it. Surely you can’t think he learned the same time you did...

 

I do not think that the Red Sox had any more advanced notice than did Houston. Both may have had at most 24 hrs notice before it was made public. Moreover I have seen no reporting to suggest that they did. Unlike Washington MLB seems to have a better record of preventing leaks concerning pending investigations.

[Elktonnick]

Actually suspecting losing future draft picks makes trading Betts the right move.

 

With you think this 85 win team can make up 19 games through sheer will power, or 2020 is a bust. While many in the Keep Betts crowd advocate “dealing with 2021 in 2021 and not a second before,” the problems will be obvious. No Betts. No replacement. And if the reset still exists with penalties, the Sox won’t do that either.

 

Since there is a chance MLB takes draft picks to further the damage (and zero chance of MLB adding draft picks for kicks), the strategy of getting ahead is clearly the best. If Bloom guesses wrong and MLB takes no picks, is that really a bad sign for the future?

 

Making deals based on incomplete information is not normally a prudent strategy.

[Bellhorn04]

Making deals based on incomplete information is not normally a prudent strategy.

 

But in this case, there is no result of the investigation that would make it less desirable to trade Betts.

[Elktonnick]

But in this case, there is no result of the investigation that would make it less desirable to trade Betts.

Oh but the question is what do you ask for in return. If the penalties are a substantial lose in draft picks wouldn't it be prudent to accept draft picks as part of the compensation. Until you know the penalties I would argue it would be prudent to wait.

[mvp 78]

Oh but the question is what do you ask for in return. If the penalties are a substantial lose in draft picks wouldn't it be prudent to accept draft picks as part of the compensation. Until you know the penalties I would argue it would be prudent to wait.

 

Do the Dodgers even have a pick they can trade? I believe SD only has one.

[Elktonnick]

Do the Dodgers even have a pick they can trade? I believe SD only has one.

 

The risk in trading for draft picks prior to the penalties being announced is that you made a decision on the assumption that draft picks would be part of the sanctions. If they are not you have precluded other options that may have been preferable. I just think the most prudent approach is to wait until MLB concludes its investigation.

[mvp 78]

The risk in trading for draft picks prior to the penalties being announced is that you made a decision on the assumption that draft picks would be part of the sanctions. If they are not you have precluded other options that may have been preferable. I just think the most prudent approach is to wait until MLB concludes its investigation.

 

Just go with the other preferable options regardless of draft pick issues.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I count 17 votes so far, with 9 saying they'd pay Betts $32.5 million a year or less...

 

Even if a Yankee fan or two voted, do half the posters on a Red Sox forum actually believe that Mookie Betts is worth less money per year than Anthony Rendon?

[mvp 78]

I count 17 votes so far, with 9 saying they'd pay Betts $32.5 million a year or less...

 

Even if a Yankee fan or two voted, do half the posters on a Red Sox forum actually believe that Mookie Betts is worth less money per year than Anthony Rendon?

 

Nah, they just feel sorry for John Henry’s bank account.

[harmony]

I count 17 votes so far, with 9 saying they'd pay Betts $32.5 million a year or less...

 

Even if a Yankee fan or two voted, do half the posters on a Red Sox forum actually believe that Mookie Betts is worth less money per year than Anthony Rendon?

Even a prudent fan of Anthony Rendon would be unlikely to give Rendon that contract.

Edited February 2, 2020 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Without knowing how the penalties will affect future draft picks, Bloom and the Red Sox should keep their powder dry until MLB makes its final decision on what if any penalties are forthcoming.

 

To me, that shouldn't matter to the plan of needing to improve the farm and young core.

 

It was the lossof Cora as our manager that tipped the balance to all but give up on 2020.

[moonslav59]

But in this case, there is no result of the investigation that would make it less desirable to trade Betts.

 

Exactly.

[Elktonnick]

To me, that shouldn't matter to the plan of needing to improve the farm and young core.

 

It was the lossof Cora as our manager that tipped the balance to all but give up on 2020.

 

Funny thing it was the loss of Cora that made me more optimistic about their chances in 2020.

[OH FOY]

No Talent in the Minors to replace his Talent, and your not going to get the return back. Might as well sign him, Sox are stuck. If you had a Outfielder that, had the potential had when Betts was coming up, he would be gone.

This Minor League talent, is terrible. Pitching and Positional.

Sox are stuck. For not developing.

[notin]

I expect that they will be a better team with Betts than without Betts. Let's see how 2020 plays out. In any case to trade Betts before MLB has come with its penalties is premature. To trade Betts before they have a chance to see if they are still in contention after the ASB is equally premature.

 

They might be “better” with Betts, but that doesn’t mean they’ll be good enough...

[moonslav59]

Funny thing it was the loss of Cora that made me more optimistic about their chances in 2020.

 

Well, once the story broke, keeping him would have been a huge distraction, but before the mess broke, there was no better option.

[mvp 78]

Well, once the story broke, keeping him would have been a huge distraction, but before the mess broke, there was no better option.

 

Let the cat out Schrodinger’s Box.

[Elktonnick]

Well, once the story broke, keeping him would have been a huge distraction, but before the mess broke, there was no better option.

 

Sure there was. Cora is Alfred E Neuman who got caught!

[Elktonnick]

They might be “better” with Betts, but that doesn’t mean they’ll be good enough...

 

If they are better with Betts but not good enough, Verdugo bad back and all certainly would be a major step in the wrong direction.

[notin]

If they are better with Betts but not good enough, Verdugo bad back and all certainly would be a major step in the wrong direction.

 

1. Well, it’s not Verdugo yet. 2. Safe bet if it is, Bloom will have more information about Verdugo’s back than a singular 4 week old news story. 3. If the Sox can’t reset, zero chance of Betts returning anyway, so any sort of jump at 2021 makes sense. The farm ain’t giving us the next Mookie any time soon...

[Elktonnick]

1. Well, it’s not Verdugo yet. 2. Safe bet if it is, Bloom will have more information about Verdugo’s back than a singular 4 week old news story. 3. If the Sox can’t reset, zero chance of Betts returning anyway, so any sort of jump at 2021 makes sense. The farm ain’t giving us the next Mookie any time soon...

 

If it is Verdugo and he goes on the DL, the bloom will soon go off that rose and he will be just another whiz kid who wilted in the Hub.

[notin]

If it is Verdugo and he goes on the DL, the bloom will soon go off that rose and he will be just another whiz kid who wilted in the Hub.

 

Yes for people who base everything on one snap judgement.

 

What if he keeps Betts, and Mookie goes on the DL?