Mookie downgrade thread

[mvp 78]

It would go in like this (Stanton is similar)

 

$14 mil AAV minus SD payment /3. So in this case, the Pads pay $18 mil, so $6 mil per year. Myers then costs $8 mil per season by Lux Tax

 

Why divided by 3?

[jacksonianmarch]

Why divided by 3?

 

Because the Padres will only be paying for the final 3 years of the contract.

[harmony]

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/story/2020-01-27/padres-mookie-betts-red-sox-wil-myers-cal-quantrill-manuel-margot

 

The Padres, the sources said, are willing to include outfielder Manuel Margot or Josh Naylor and starting pitcher Cal Quantrill or Joey Lucchesi in the deal.[/i]

 

Lefthander Joey Lucchesi, who posted a win against the Red Sox last August, has a surplus value of $38.3 million, according to Baseball Trade Values:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/8747/

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SDN/SDN201908250.shtml

 

Trivia: Lucchesi started half of the MLB games I attended last year (winning neither):

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/WAS/WAS201904280.shtml

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SDN/SDN201905170.shtml

[notin]

It would go in like this (Stanton is similar)

 

$14 mil AAV minus SD payment /3. So in this case, the Pads pay $18 mil, so $6 mil per year. Myers then costs $8 mil per season by Lux Tax

 

So it's Myers plus Margot/Naylor and Quantrill/Lucchesi plus a $19mill reduction in AAV?

 

I can see waiting on the Dodgers here...

[notin]

Lefthander Joey Lucchesi, who posted a win against the Red Sox last August, has a surplus value of $38.3 million, according to Baseball Trade Values:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/8747/

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SDN/SDN201908250.shtml

 

Trivia: Lucchesi started half of the MLB games I attended last year (winning neither):

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/WAS/WAS201904280.shtml

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SDN/SDN201905170.shtml

 

Accrding to the simulator, the Padres would have to pay $49mill if the deal was Myers, Lucchesi and Naylor for Betts. Or they could pay $15mill and include Luis Campusano and Franchy Cordero...

[notin]

Per baseballtradevaues.com, a fair trade would be Betts for Myers, Margot and Mackenzie Gore and $17mill from the Padres.

 

Would anyone make that deal?

[jacksonianmarch]

Naylor was a top 100 prior to burning his rookie year. He’s a stocky, undersized 1b with a 70 power grade via fan graphs who will begin the season as a 22 yr old. He held his own in his debut season in SD. He is a legit talent with 6 years of control left. Do not sneeze at him

[notin]

Naylor was a top 100 prior to burning his rookie year. He’s a stocky, undersized 1b with a 70 power grade via fan graphs who will begin the season as a 22 yr old. He held his own in his debut season in SD. He is a legit talent with 6 years of control left. Do not sneeze at him

 

If the Sox get Myers, he becomes less of a need. No way Myers goes into the OF. So with him at 1B, where does Naylor play?

[moonslav59]

If the Sox get Myers, he becomes less of a need. No way Myers goes into the OF. So with him at 1B, where does Naylor play?

 

Imagine Myers in LF, Beni in CF & JBJ or Betts in RF.

 

OMG!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Ah-choo.

 

Here's the list of all the major leaguers from 1871 to 2019 who had 125 HRs, 125 SBs, .300 BA, .875 OPS, and less than 500 Ks (min. 3500 PA) in their first six seasons:

 

Mookie Betts.

[moonslav59]

Accrding to the simulator, the Padres would have to pay $49mill if the deal was Myers, Lucchesi and Naylor for Betts. Or they could pay $15mill and include Luis Campusano and Franchy Cordero...

 

It makes more sense giving them Eovaldi than expecting them to pay cash.

[Slasher9]

Ah-choo.

 

Here's the list of all the major leaguers from 1871 to 2019 who had 125 HRs, 125 SBs, .300 BA, .875 OPS, and less than 500 Ks (min. 3500 PA) in their first six seasons:

 

Mookie Betts.

 

this is exactly the reason i want to trade him for a haul of prospects now and then sign him to a LTC when he hits FA next offseason.

[jacksonianmarch]

If the Sox get Myers, he becomes less of a need. No way Myers goes into the OF. So with him at 1B, where does Naylor play?

 

When you rebuild, it’s not about positional talent, it’s about accumulation of talent. In that situation, Myers becomes the everyday 1b and Naylor goes to AAA. When Myers or JDM get hurt, Naylor comes up. If he outperforms the big leaguer, he keeps the job. If Myers reclaims his potential, then you deal him off for parts with SD footing some of the bill and Naylor takes 1b.

[notin]

When you rebuild, it’s not about positional talent, it’s about accumulation of talent. In that situation, Myers becomes the everyday 1b and Naylor goes to AAA. When Myers or JDM get hurt, Naylor comes up. If he outperforms the big leaguer, he keeps the job. If Myers reclaims his potential, then you deal him off for parts with SD footing some of the bill and Naylor takes 1b.

 

Who’s rebuilding?

 

The Sox might trade Betts, but they still have Bogaerts, Devers, Benintendi, Martinez, Sale, ERod, Price and Vazquez plus whatever they get for Betts. That’s a pretty good foundation.

 

And if they get MLB players for Betts, even less reason to rebuild...

[vegasbob]

Who’s rebuilding?

 

The Sox might trade Betts, but they still have Bogaerts, Devers, Benintendi, Martinez, Sale, ERod, Price and Vazquez plus whatever they get for Betts. That’s a pretty good foundation.

 

And if they get MLB players for Betts, even less reason to rebuild...

 

For obvious reasons, there has been little focus or discussion about this core of maturing players who can be the foundation of a competitive team. I think J. Henry got the train off the tracks with the "cut payroll" plan which has led to constant unrelenting speculation about Betts, JBJr and Price/Eovaldi. , the state of the farm, and capped off by Cora's departure.

 

I'm sure all of that has been very distracting to the player group[ getting primed for ST, and wondering who the manager will be. The organization does appear to be in disarray because they do seem to be waiting for the MLB penalties to come down and either name more culprits on the staff or let underlings rest. I think Manfred owes the team and the fans a quicker resolution given the ST timeframe unless the goal is to inflict max pain and disruption on Boston.

 

None of that, however takes away the skills and potential of the current lineup. It is possible that Sale, Price and Eovaldi do get 30 starts over a season, and Erod hits 20 wins since he gets big run support. Major miracle but possible

[harmony]

Wil Myers is two years younger than Mike Lowell was when the Red Sox acquired Lowell and Josh Beckett in a November 2005 trade of Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez.

 

Compare the 2019 stats of Myers with the 2005 stats of Lowell:

 

WM 490 PA, .239/.321/.418/.739, OPS+ 95, bWAR -0.3, fWAR 0.5

ML 559 PA, .236/.298/.360/.658, OPS+ 77, bWAR -0.9, fWAR 0.1

 

Their career stats today and in November 2005:

 

WM 3145 PA, .251/.327/.436/.763, OPS+ 107, 8.6 bWAR, 9.5 fWAR

ML 4020 PA, .272/.339/.461/.800, OPS+ 109, 14.3 bWAR, 17.4 fWAR

 

Lowell may be the better righthand-hitting corner infielder, but Myers is not without value.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/myerswi01.shtml

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lowelmi01.shtml

[Jack Flap]

Per baseballtradevaues.com, a fair trade would be Betts for Myers, Margot and Mackenzie Gore and $17mill from the Padres.

 

Would anyone make that deal?

 

I'll give you one better:

 

Betts and a minor pot sweetener (think Marcus Wilson or Brandon Howlett) to SD for Myers, Gore, and Campusano. We say forget about the luxury tax and take Myers' entire contract.

 

I hope Bloom doesn't continue to waste his time (except to drive the price up for the Dodgers) if the Padres really expect us to take second-rate talent here along with 75% of Myers' money. If you're not using Myers' inclusion to extort an elite name or two out of the Padres, what's the point?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Who’s rebuilding?

 

The Sox might trade Betts, but they still have Bogaerts, Devers, Benintendi, Martinez, Sale, ERod, Price and Vazquez plus whatever they get for Betts. That’s a pretty good foundation.

 

And if they get MLB players for Betts, even less reason to rebuild...

 

Ya, he keeps misspelling reSET; been doing it all winter. Wishful thinking, hoping a club coming off an offseason after a franchise record win total is going to blow it up and make it easier for a rival to maybe get back to its first World Series in over a decade.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Dbacks are out; just traded for Marte. As if they had the goods to get Betts...

[jacksonianmarch]

Ya, he keeps misspelling reSET; been doing it all winter. Wishful thinking, hoping a club coming off an offseason after a franchise record win total is going to blow it up and make it easier for a rival to maybe get back to its first World Series in over a decade.

 

Lol, well the last part had something to do with our rebuild. We were competitive 2009-2012 and then mediocre until 2017. Now we are championship caliber. When your farm is dead and your young guys get expensive, the only thing you can do is spend to prop it open or wait on the farm to grow again. If you spend to prop open the window, your "reset" will be followed by a long rebuild. I will be proven right, this is not a reset. You guys are headed into a rebuild. The depths of that rebuild will depend on how much you're willing to explode

[jacksonianmarch]

Now a rebuild comes in two flavors.

 

1. Do you do what the O's are doing and detonate everything and wait until some of the kids graduate before supplementing a new core? This is the longest way to rebuild. You actively rebuild a young core which can take 3-4 years.

 

2. The way the big market teams do it is either spend around the young core coming up, or spend to create a core and use the kids to fill in, or use that new farm and financial flexibility to deal for now assets.

[notin]

Now a rebuild comes in two flavors.

 

1. Do you do what the O's are doing and detonate everything and wait until some of the kids graduate before supplementing a new core? This is the longest way to rebuild. You actively rebuild a young core which can take 3-4 years.

 

2. The way the big market teams do it is either spend around the young core coming up, or spend to create a core and use the kids to fill in, or use that new farm and financial flexibility to deal for now assets.

 

How exactly does that differ from what they do when they're not rebuilding?

[Jack Flap]

If the report from yesterday is to be believed... Imagine being the Padres and missing out on getting Mookie Betts for that weak-ass package due to a disagreement over 25% of Myers' salary.

 

Also imagine being the Dodgers and missing out on getting Mookie Betts because you wouldn't top that weak-ass package.

 

The reported offer from the Padres reads like one of those homerish proposals where the Red Sox send Rusney Castillo, a good-not-great prospect, and some other spare parts we don't really need for another team's star...I can reluctantly accept trading Mookie for an impressive return, but not if we're doing the John Lackey trade again on a grander scale, which is what this sounds like.

 

Something still isn't adding up here.

Edited January 28, 2020 by Jack Flap

[Jack Flap]

Also, a full blowup-and-rebuild scenario is pretty clearly not happening here, no matter how much the Yankees fans among us might enjoy that or insist it is necessary. Can we get that out of the way now?

[moonslav59]

Also, a full blowup-and-rebuild scenario is pretty clearly not happening here, no matter how much the Yankees fans among us might enjoy that or insist it is necessary. Can we get that out of the way now?

 

No. We may have a huge fire sale in July... at least most players with bloated contracts or less than 2 years of team control.

 

That scenario is "in play."

[moonslav59]

If the report from yesterday is to be believed... Imagine being the Padres and missing out on getting Mookie Betts for that weak-ass package due to a disagreement over 25% of Myers' salary.

 

Also imagine being the Dodgers and missing out on getting Mookie Betts because you wouldn't top that weak-ass package.

 

The reported offer from the Padres reads like one of those homerish proposals where the Red Sox send Rusney Castillo, a good-not-great prospect, and some other spare parts we don't really need for another team's star...I can reluctantly accept trading Mookie for an impressive return, but not if we're doing the John Lackey trade again on a grander scale, which is what this sounds like.

 

Something still isn't adding up here.

 

Betts is great, but it's only one year. Both the Padres and Dodgers plan on sticking around longer than that. I don't blame them for trying to lessen the return.

 

I don't even get why the Padres are in on Betts, and their offer shows how much they really want him.

 

The Dodgers might be desperate for an all-in win in 2020. Several of the top teams got weaker, and the NL lost a lot of FA talent to the AL. That being said, asking them to part with several top prospects with 5 years of team control, each, for just a one year window opening is clearly an issue to them. Very reasonable.

 

If I were the Sox, I'd forget about forcing Price on the Dodgers, but would insist on Eovaldi for Pollock or Pederson as a way of evening out the money issues we face longer term. Maybe get 2 good prospects added, and if we have to add Workman (FA after 2020), then so be it.

[notin]

No. We may have a huge fire sale in July... at least most players with bloated contracts or less than 2 years of team control.

 

That scenario is "in play."

 

It’s January, so it isn’t.

 

It’s also probably not in play in July to the extent you mention.

 

And before you run up the white flag, bear in mind Mookie is still with the Sox...

[moonslav59]

It’s January, so it isn’t.

 

It’s also probably not in play in July to the extent you mention.

 

And before you run up the white flag, bear in mind Mookie is still with the Sox...

 

The plan for July could be. That's what I said, and I'm pretty sure it's been discussed.

[Bellhorn04]

Betts is great, but it's only one year. Both the Padres and Dodgers plan on sticking around longer than that. I don't blame them for trying to lessen the return.

 

I don't even get why the Padres are in on Betts, and their offer shows how much they really want him.

 

The Dodgers might be desperate for an all-in win in 2020. Several of the top teams got weaker, and the NL lost a lot of FA talent to the AL. That being said, asking them to part with several top prospects with 5 years of team control, each, for just a one year window opening is clearly an issue to them. Very reasonable.

 

If I were the Sox, I'd forget about forcing Price on the Dodgers, but would insist on Eovaldi for Pollock or Pederson as a way of evening out the money issues we face longer term. Maybe get 2 good prospects added, and if we have to add Workman (FA after 2020), then so be it.

 

If the Dodgers are desperate, you'd never know it from this offseason. They've done virtually nothing.

[Bellhorn04]

No. We may have a huge fire sale in July... at least most players with bloated contracts or less than 2 years of team control.

 

That scenario is "in play."

 

I'm not sure why you think a fire sale is a real possibility.