Mookie downgrade thread

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It pains me to type this, but it's probably something the real front office is contemplating...

 

Bradford posted that Betts is asking for a salary closer to Trout's than Harper's or Machado's. We've read a lot of debates the past two months, with many Red Sox fans and writers imploring Boston to lock up Mookie forever... while dissenters counter with quotes like "overrated", "unworthy", "undersized", "strangle the roster for years", "death and taxes", and the all-time fallback: "nobody deserves that much money to play baseball".

 

So here's a list of upcoming free agent outfielders for 2021 (all are older than Betts, with most already in their 30s):

Cespedes, Springer, Brantley, Bruce, Reddick, Peralta, Pederson, S.Marte, Canha, Markakis, Grossman, Taylor, Marisnick, Kiki Hernandez... JBJ.

 

The question is: (barring a trade for a "controllable" outfielder) if you don't think the Red Sox should invest in Mookie -- or don't think he'll sign with Boston, anyway -- then who would you prefer that may be available?

 

We should be able to sign two for the price of one Betts, or one plus a free agent pitcher... Hendricks, Ray, Bauer, Stroman may be the best as of now.

[moonslav59]

I'd pay Betts more than Harper and Machado, but there is a limit on how high I'd go.

 

It's a hard choice to make. To me, it comes down to this: if we think we will reset and then pay Betts whatever it takes to keep him, then fine. I'm not so sure we can feel confident in that option and also end up paying him way more than we really wanted to but do it just because we committed to this choice.

 

The flip side is dealing him to get something worthwhile in return instead of getting a lousy comp pick, instead. We shouldn't just give him away, but how little are we prepared to settle on?

 

The third option may be the best of all. Trade Betts for the best we can get, even if it doesn't seem like enough. Trade JBJ, too. (Maybe Price & Eovaldi.) Use the money to sign under-the-radar FAs that will help the team as much or more in 2021 and beyond than 2020. Reset the tax, then go hard after Betts for 2021 without going too far overboard. This way, if we lose out on him, we still have something to show for losing him, and we can use the money dedicated to bringing Betts back to sign other good FAs. This plan has one noticeable drawback: we'll likely suck in 2020.

 

I'd hate to watch a Betts-less Sox team in 2020, but I'm thinking this might be the best option, at this point.

 

BTW, I don't get what "Mookie downgrade" means.

Edited December 31, 2019 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

BTW, I don't get what "Mookie downgrade" means.

 

...none of the other outfielders in his free agent class are as good.

 

But -- would you trade Betts for George Springer and Robbie Ray? How about Betts for David Peralta, Liam Hendricks and Trevor Bauer?

 

Never mind what the simulator says, because these are not actual trade proposals... but to Bloom and Co., they might be considering such possible trade-offs, since they could use the $400 million that Mookie will demand to instead acquire a combination of quality depth that could make the Red Sox better.

[moonslav59]

BTW, I don't get what "Mookie downgrade" means.

 

...none of the other outfielders in his free agent class are as good.

 

But -- would you trade Betts for George Springer and Robbie Ray? How about Betts for David Peralta, Liam Hendricks and Trevor Bauer?

 

Never mind what the simulator says, because these are not actual trade proposals... but to Bloom and Co., they might be considering such possible trade-offs, since they could use the $400 million that Mookie will demand to instead acquire a combination of quality depth that could make the Red Sox better.

 

Springer is a FA after this year, so that's a clear no.

 

If I trade Betts, it won't be for Joc Pederson, either.

 

I'd trade him for young ML players or ML ready prospects that are under team control for 4+ years.

 

Then, after resetting, I give Betts a more than fair offer next winter. If someone else goes nutty and out bids us, then at least we have something to show for losing him and a big wad of cash to spend elsewhere at a minimum tax cost.

[jacksonianmarch]

Someone is gonna go nutty. Even in a year where he was clearly below his potential, he was a 6.6 WAR, .900+OPS player. He's averaged 7+ WAR for the last 4 years. He is likely to be near 7 WAR in 2020. He will likely be a 7 WAR player for a few years after that. Here is the problem I have with Mookie. He's a short ball player. His defensive game is tied to his quick twitch speed, something that will wane as he aged. As a hitter, he is valuable, but he isn't a $300+ mil player on his bat alone. It's his baserunning and defense that add that extra value, both of which will fade during his next contract. Does it fade early? Does he retain it later? Nobody knows, but there is a solid chance that he becomes exceptionally overpaid on a yearly basis before he hits the halfway point of the contract. Now, for a team still likely to be a WS contender, you do the deal. Kinda like what the Yanks are doing with Cole. We should be WS contenders the first half of the contract and digging out from the mess the second half. The problem for the sox is that the situation is flipped. They're digging out from the mess early in the contract and by the time they're perennial contenders again, he might have already peaked. It never made sense to me for the sox to give him the deal he will want or to outpace the market.

[moonslav59]

Here are some trades the simulator shows the other team getting a slightly better deal:

 

Betts (50 value) to Dodgers for...

 

(C- minors) Ruiz (44.7) + (2B-minors) Estevez (4.6)

 

or

 

(P-majors) Maeda (12.2) +2B-minors) + (1B/OF-majors) Beaty + Downs (21.9) + (C-minors) Cartaya (10.3)

 

or

 

Betts (50) to SD for...

 

(C- minors) Campusano (24.7) + (LHP-minors) Morejon (19.6)+ (SS/2B minors) Cronenworth (5.5)

 

or

 

(C-majors) Hedges (22.1) + (OF-majors) Margot (10.4)+ (LHP-minors) Weathers (15.0)

 

or to the Braves for....

 

(RHP-minors) Anderson 30.5 + (C-minors) Contreras (20.6) =51.1

 

of

 

(C-minors) Contreras (20.6)+ (RHP-minors) Wright (20.4)+ (OF-majors) Inciarte (5.5)+ (SS- minors) Graffanino (1.7)

 

or

 

(RHP-minors) Anderson (30.5) +(C-minors) Langeliers (15.4)+ (OF-minors) Jenista (3.3)

 

These are just examples I found. I'm not saying I know much about these players, or if I'd make these deals, but all look better than a comp pick, to me.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Maybe I was unclear. I wasn't suggesting trading Betts... but was instead considering all the other names who will also be free agents after 2020.

 

One option the Red Sox may be weighing is whether to use the boatloads of cash saved by not signing Mookie to instead sign several other good players... (of course, they'd need to reset by the end of 2019 first).

 

I know I'm not the first to suggest that here, but thought it'd be worth a look to see who will be available -- at least in the outfield and on the mound.

[moonslav59]

Someone is gonna go nutty. Even in a year where he was clearly below his potential, he was a 6.6 WAR, .900+OPS player. He's averaged 7+ WAR for the last 4 years. He is likely to be near 7 WAR in 2020. He will likely be a 7 WAR player for a few years after that. Here is the problem I have with Mookie. He's a short ball player. His defensive game is tied to his quick twitch speed, something that will wane as he aged. As a hitter, he is valuable, but he isn't a $300+ mil player on his bat alone. It's his baserunning and defense that add that extra value, both of which will fade during his next contract. Does it fade early? Does he retain it later? Nobody knows, but there is a solid chance that he becomes exceptionally overpaid on a yearly basis before he hits the halfway point of the contract. Now, for a team still likely to be a WS contender, you do the deal. Kinda like what the Yanks are doing with Cole. We should be WS contenders the first half of the contract and digging out from the mess the second half. The problem for the sox is that the situation is flipped. They're digging out from the mess early in the contract and by the time they're perennial contenders again, he might have already peaked. It never made sense to me for the sox to give him the deal he will want or to outpace the market.

 

I'm not so sure his defense declines all that much. Experience counts for something, and remember, Betts has only been an OF'er for a few years.

 

Did Dewey's defense decline as he aged?

 

Sure, part of Mookie's great D is tied to his speed and quick reaction time, but that doesn't mean he can't improve in other areas to compensate for that projected decline. He's also a smart base runner not just a fast one.

 

Also, where is the evidence that quick twitch muscle reaction time declines sharply with age? Is there another player in history that had this quality? I'm not sure they even measured this long ago, so where's the evidence?

 

Another possibility is that he loses some speed and twitch reflexes but gains in power. There are many examples ofplayers who hit 20-30 Hrs in their 20's then hit 30-40 from 30-35 or later.

 

I'd pay Betts more than $300M x 10. He'll likely be worth $37.5M x 2, $35.0M x 2, $32.5M x 2, $27.5M x 2 and $25.0M x 2. That's not even counting on rising player salary averages over the next 10 years.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Maybe I was unclear. I wasn't suggesting trading Betts... but was instead considering all the other names who will also be free agents after 2020.

 

One option the Red Sox may be weighing is whether to use the boatloads of cash saved by not signing Mookie to instead sign several other good players... (of course, they'd need to reset by the end of 2019 first).

 

I know I'm not the first to suggest that here, but thought it'd be worth a look to see who will be available -- at least in the outfield and on the mound.

 

Okay, I missed your point, sorry.

 

The one thing I trust Bloom with is maximizing the potential of a FA spending budget. He may sign 5-7 guys with the money he might have spent on Betts- no Springer or anyone on your list.

 

It might be a better plan than putting all your eggs in one basket.

 

Paying Betts $35M a year would be about 1/6th the player salary budget. Personally, I think he's worth $35M+ a year, but I see the risk.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

"Someone is gonna go nutty."

 

The market dictates the numbers. Betts, about to enter his prime, will get a top of the market salary. It may be impractical to compare him to Cole or Lindor -- but not to other active outfielders. The general consensus is most evaluators rate Betts somewhere between Trout and Harper, if not in dollars, at least in overall talent and accomplishments.

 

Bellinger, Yelich and K.Marte had higher WAR than Betts in '19. Soto and Acuna are younger with unlimited upside. All make less than Mookie's arbitration salary and are under contract past when Betts reaches free agency. They're all going to get paid, but Mookie already has five years of 5.9 WAR or better -- more than Bellinger, Yelich, Marte, Soto and Acuna combined.

 

Even Judge will be rich soon. But did you know that he's actually older than Betts by 164 days?

[jacksonianmarch]

"Someone is gonna go nutty."

 

The market dictates the numbers. Betts, about to enter his prime, will get a top of the market salary. It may be impractical to compare him to Cole or Lindor -- but not to other active outfielders. The general consensus is most evaluators rate Betts somewhere between Trout and Harper, if not in dollars, at least in overall talent and accomplishments.

 

Bellinger, Yelich and K.Marte had higher WAR than Betts in '19. Soto and Acuna are younger with unlimited upside. All make less than Mookie's arbitration salary and are under contract past when Betts reaches free agency. They're all going to get paid, but Mookie already has five years of 5.9 WAR or better -- more than Bellinger, Yelich, Marte, Soto and Acuna combined.

 

Even Judge will be rich soon. But did you know that he's actually older than Betts by 164 days?

 

Judge is a massive man. Most massive baseball position players (there aren't many) take awhile to develop. I am happy to know he's on the squad for the next 3 years at least.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Judge is a massive man. Most massive baseball position players (there aren't many) take awhile to develop. I am happy to know he's on the squad for the next 3 years at least.

 

And I can't possibly in my wildest dreams envision any scenario where the New York frigging Yankees let a homegrown, face-of-the-franchise fan favorite walk away...

[TylerD]

I'd pay Betts more than Harper and Machado, but there is a limit on how high I'd go.

 

It's a hard choice to make. To me, it comes down to this: if we think we will reset and then pay Betts whatever it takes to keep him, then fine. I'm not so sure we can feel confident in that option and also end up paying him way more than we really wanted to but do it just because we committed to this choice.

 

The flip side is dealing him to get something worthwhile in return instead of getting a lousy comp pick, instead. We shouldn't just give him away, but how little are we prepared to settle on?

 

The third option may be the best of all. Trade Betts for the best we can get, even if it doesn't seem like enough. Trade JBJ, too. (Maybe Price & Eovaldi.) Use the money to sign under-the-radar FAs that will help the team as much or more in 2021 and beyond than 2020. Reset the tax, then go hard after Betts for 2021 without going too far overboard. This way, if we lose out on him, we still have something to show for losing him, and we can use the money dedicated to bringing Betts back to sign other good FAs. This plan has one noticeable drawback: we'll likely suck in 2020.

 

I'd hate to watch a Betts-less Sox team in 2020, but I'm thinking this might be the best option, at this point.

 

BTW, I don't get what "Mookie downgrade" means.

 

Agreed Moon. Mookie is worth it to a point.... Depends what that point is.

 

Also I am assuming he means Downgrade as in we get rid of Mookie and get someone else (Mookie being one of the best it would be a downgrade at that position whoever we choose)

[notin]

The big dilemma is - if the Sox trade Price, it will likely involve paying lots of cash and getting nothing back. Resetting is possible, maybe even probable,but not guaranteed. Can the Sox trade Price, replace Price, reset, keep Mookie, and still be competitive in 2020?

[notin]

And I can't possibly in my wildest dreams envision any scenario where the New York frigging Yankees let a homegrown, face-of-the-franchise fan favorite walk away...

 

Closest example I can think of was Bernie Williams nearly signing with Boston.

 

Unless you want t count Andy Pettitte signing with Houston...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

"Another possibility is that he loses some speed and twitch reflexes but gains in power. There are many examples ofplayers who hit 20-30 Hrs in their 20's then hit 30-40 from 30-35 or later."

 

Moon, you just described Hank Aaron. The Hammer is also the first guy I thought of most comparable to Mookie, when I first watched those quick lethal wrists turn on a fastball. If the Red Sox are betting on Betts to sustain greatness like Aaron through his 30s -- they are both listed at 180 pounds on baseball-ref -- then back up the truck. Someone will...

Edited December 31, 2019 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Closest example I can think of was Bernie Williams nearly signing with Boston.

 

Unless you want t count Andy Pettitte signing with Houston...

 

Right, and the Sox tried to steal Pettitte, too -- and he said he could never sign with Boston, just on principle. Instead he followed his buddy Roger to Houston and back to New York again.

 

I asked an ancient Yankee-fan friend of mine, and all he could think of was when Murcer left... but he had no choice because he was traded. And then also landed back in NY eventually.

[Donnie Sadler was short]

Id like to chime in with my opinion...if we trade Mookie, I just dont see him coming back to Boston as a FA. I know he's apparently all about the money (I find that sad to be honest), but how often is someone traded & then comes back the next year as a FA?

[notin]

Id like to chime in with my opinion...if we trade Mookie, I just dont see him coming back to Boston as a FA. I know he's apparently all about the money (I find that sad to be honest), but how often is someone traded & then comes back the next year as a FA?

 

Jeurys Familia did it last year...

[moonslav59]

"Another possibility is that he loses some speed and twitch reflexes but gains in power. There are many examples ofplayers who hit 20-30 Hrs in their 20's then hit 30-40 from 30-35 or later."

 

Moon, you just described Hank Aaron. The Hammer is also the first guy I thought of most comparable to Mookie, when I first watched those quick lethal wrists turn on a fastball. If the Red Sox are betting on Betts to sustain greatness like Aaron through his 30s -- they are both listed at 180 pounds on baseball-ref -- then back up the truck. Someone will...

 

I remember you saying this earlier, and it does seem like a good comp. Aaron's power came from his wrists and apparent quick twitch swing.

 

Betts is a better fielder and runner, so even if his power does not end up matching Hank, he may still end up with a higher career WAR.

[moonslav59]

Jeurys Familia did it last year...

 

We came up a bit short on Lester, but made an attempt.

[Donnie Sadler was short]

Jeurys Familia did it last year...

 

Im not...."familiar" with that!

[Bellhorn04]

Im not...."familiar" with that!

 

Chapman did too. Yanks traded him to Cubs then signed him as free agent.

[S5Dewey]

And I can't possibly in my wildest dreams envision any scenario where the New York frigging Yankees let a homegrown, face-of-the-franchise fan favorite walk away...

 

But if through some sickening scenario Betts got moved to the Yankees Judge would be gone in a New York minute.

[a700hitter]

Bloom has been consistent in his statements about not moving Betts. We should take him at his word.

[h=1]Report: Red Sox Aren’t “Actively Shopping” Mookie Betts[/h]By Connor Byrne | December 31, 2019 at 8:16pm CDT

Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts’ name has been bandied about in offseason trade speculation, particularly with the club trying to get under the $208MM luxury-tax threshold in 2020. But the Red Sox still have a very good roster, and Betts is an irreplaceable member of it, so there doesn’t seem to be any hurry on their part to move him.

The Red Sox, led by new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, aren’t “actively shopping” the former AL MVP, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. Trading Betts is not part of Boston’s ideal plan for cutting payroll, though the team may at least consider offers, Bradford suggests.

As of now, the Red Sox are projected for a luxury-tax outlay of $237MM-plus for 2020, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Getting rid of Betts’ projected $27.7MM arbitration salary would put them in striking distance of $208MM, and he’d likely bring back a nice return at the same time. With that said, trading Betts – the Red Sox’s best player and one of the game’s elite performers – could cripple their chances of pushing for a playoff return next season. The 27-year-old Betts was a 10-WAR player as recently as 2018, his MVP campaign, and though his numbers dropped a season ago, he was still worth upward of 6 WAR.

Going forward, Betts is in line to become a free agent in less than a year’s time, but the Red Sox figure to put on a full-court press to extend him before truly considering a trade. Betts has indicated on multiple occasions he’s gearing up to test free agency, but as we saw when the Angels extended Mike Trout before last season, an enticing enough offer can keep a superstar from trying his luck on the market.

In Betts’ case, an extension should mean a guarantee approaching or exceeding $400MM (Trout got 10 years and $360MM in new money). But if the Red Sox aren’t willing to go to those lengths, or if Betts is dead set on shopping himself around the league next winter, he could dominate trade rumors leading up to the July deadline. In the meantime, left-hander David Price and center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. seem like more attainable trade candidates on a team that’s hoping to reduce its payroll while remaining competitive.

[Bellhorn04]

I think the Red Sox are not only not trading Mookie, but are looking at his free agency the same way the Yanks looked at Cole. Do what it takes.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I like this prediction from today:

MLB 2020 season predictions

WWW.MLB.COM

---

Hindsight is 20/20, but my foresight is 2020. I don’t need to consult with a crystal ball to learn what the future holds in MLB, for I am an expert on the subject. If you want proof, you need look no further than my past predictions (trust me, no need

 

"3. The Red Sox won’t trade Mookie Betts. They’ll extend (or re-sign) him by year’s end."

 

... and this quote: "if one of baseball’s most successful and relevant franchises in one of its biggest markets can’t retain a homegrown superstar, something’s amiss."

 

Sometimes it seems like the only difference between the professional writers and guys like us is that we only get paid in intrinsic rewards.

[TylerD]

I think the Red Sox are not only not trading Mookie, but are looking at his free agency the same way the Yanks looked at Cole. Do what it takes.

 

I like mookie:(

[notin]

Keeping Betts is better than adding anyone, but it does likely scrap any reset plans since moving Price is clearly difficult and moving the bulk of his contract next to impossible...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Keeping Betts is better than adding anyone, but it does likely scrap any reset plans since moving Price is clearly difficult and moving the bulk of his contract next to impossible...

 

I'm beginning to sense that one is dependent upon the other, and that that may be Boston's plan; the Sox have to reset so they can re-up Mookie... and not lose another hundred million in taxes, draft picks and additional funding for international signings.

 

It's kind of ridiculous since they haven't signed any major free agents from other teams since JD nearly two years ago... and before that the last significant contributor to a title was Moreland in 2016. But them's the rules.