Jackie Bradley

[Kimmi]

I think we non tender or trade JBJ and maybe Hembree. We go into 2020 just under the line, and if we look like we might compete, we might add some salary and go for it. If we look bad, we'll trade JD & Betts in July.

 

This plan might also sell more season tickets.

 

That sounds realistic. I just can't see the Sox trading Betts and JD (if he opts in) before the season starts.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That sounds realistic. I just can't see the Sox trading Betts and JD (if he opts in) before the season starts.

 

Agreed. The Red Sox product would take a serious hit, especially after a disappointing season followed by increased ticket prices. The only remote way a Betts trade will work -- in the offseason or at the trade deadline -- is if the PR machine can go public with a gigantic offer refused by Mookie, and somehow get him on record saying he just wants to play somewhere else. And then the Sox will also have to find a trade partner willing to overpay with major league ready prospects. Anything less will be unacceptable by fandom. The Nation will not accept a rebuild at the cost of its superstar player in his prime.

[Kimmi]

Agreed. The Red Sox product would take a serious hit, especially after a disappointing season followed by increased ticket prices. The only remote way a Betts trade will work -- in the offseason or at the trade deadline -- is if the PR machine can go public with a gigantic offer refused by Mookie, and somehow get him on record saying he just wants to play somewhere else. And then the Sox will also have to find a trade partner willing to overpay with major league ready prospects. Anything less will be unacceptable by fandom. The Nation will not accept a rebuild at the cost of its superstar player in his prime.

 

Unacceptable by fandom, plus I can't see Henry being okay with having a non-competitive team while trying to reset. With so many players still under contract for next season, it doesn't make much sense to get rid of your two biggest offensive weapons.

[moonslav59]

That sounds realistic. I just can't see the Sox trading Betts and JD (if he opts in) before the season starts.

 

I could see JBJ & JD traded this winter and Betts in July, but I think my original prediction is more likely.

[moonslav59]

I don't think we need any statement from Betts saying he isn't likely to come back here for most fans to understand trading him is the right thing to do, assuming we've offered a reasonable deal and we are 10-15 down in July..

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don't think we need any statement from Betts saying he isn't likely to come back here for most fans to understand trading him is the right thing to do, assuming we've offered a reasonable deal and we are 10-15 down in July..

 

This makes sense to most -- rational or diehard (can we be both?) -- fans, but perhaps not so much to younger fans that idolize Mookie or even casual fans who can only identify the nickname and not name many other players. A lot of them comprise families who can only afford to attend one or two games a year at Fenway or may or may not tune in to NESN or WEEI. This part of fandom -- in a pastime of waning interest -- can't be dismissed, as it represents a potential fanbase of generations to come in a region of five states and beyond.

[notin]

I think that if the Sox trade Betts this offseason, they're more likely to sign him to a long term deal...

[moonslav59]

This makes sense to most -- rational or diehard (can we be both?) -- fans, but perhaps not so much to younger fans that idolize Mookie or even casual fans who can only identify the nickname and not name many other players. A lot of them comprise families who can only afford to attend one or two games a year at Fenway or may or may not tune in to NESN or WEEI. This part of fandom -- in a pastime of waning interest -- can't be dismissed, as it represents a potential fanbase of generations to come in a region of five states and beyond.

 

How will these fans you speak of feel when he signs elsewhere and we get a lousy 4th round comp pick?

 

Look, I'm not for trading Betts and crawling into a hole.

 

I'd like to trade Betts and try to resign him. I'm one of the few on this site who is fine with offer $300+M/10 after 2020.

 

We can spend this winter, with the long term in mind, using the money saved by trading JBJ & Betts and maybe JD. Stay just below the tax line. Then, go big next winter (Betts or other big names).

[jacksonianmarch]

That's the thing, if the sox stay over the threshold, their QO is essentially worthless. This is why we will not be extending a QO to Didi. If we had the shot at a #30-38 pick, heck yeah, make the offer. But the idea that we could be paying $17 mil for a guy we may not want with the upside being we get a 4th round pick doesn't really make much sense

[moonslav59]

That's the thing, if the sox stay over the threshold, their QO is essentially worthless. This is why we will not be extending a QO to Didi. If we had the shot at a #30-38 pick, heck yeah, make the offer. But the idea that we could be paying $17 mil for a guy we may not want with the upside being we get a 4th round pick doesn't really make much sense

 

We won't stay over the threshold, but even that better comp pick won't be worth nearly as much as we can get for Betts.

 

Trade Betts, JD & JBJ for something really good.

 

Sign some decent FAs that will be part of the new rebuilt contender but stay under the tax line. Reset.

 

Go into the next winter with the idea of signing Betts of using $30+M to improve the team at 2-3 positions.

 

[oldtimer]

We won't stay over the threshold, but even that better comp pick won't be worth nearly as much as we can get for Betts.

 

Trade Betts, JD & JBJ for something really good.

 

Sign some decent FAs that will be part of the new rebuilt contender but stay under the tax line. Reset.

 

Go into the next winter with the idea of signing Betts of using $30+M to improve the team at 2-3 positions.

 

 

We quickly need to sign a GM who can and will make the difficult moves necessary to direct the club into the path of recovery. Who will that person be? Perhaps ownership will not recognize the need for a stellar GM. Things will start to happen at an accelerated pace following the WS, which may even end this weekend.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Bradley Jr. is gone. I think they trade JD Martinez and cash for something useful. I think Betts stays.

[Slasher9]

I think that if the Sox trade Betts this offseason, they're more likely to sign him to a long term deal...

 

i agree with this.

if we dont reset this year JH will not want to pay all the extra tax $$ on a Betts LTC.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

No one wants to lose Betts for nothing, which is basically what we'd get if he walks after 2020. He always praises the team, city and region, but has never said he wants to stay in Boston or even that he'd like to stay. This could be Mookie's strategy to prevent any notions of a home-town discount. Or, it could be a message to other suitors that they'd better pony up because the Sox are still in play (even if they're not). I think management already has a plan A, B and C ready for JD, JBJ and Betts, no matter who they label "GM". The new guy's responsibility will be to follow those plans and use his/her connections around baseball to maximize the returns of any deal, with pitching a priority. Any Betts swap needs to be a haul, with MLB-ready prospects coming back, or it will still look and feel like nothing more than the compensatory draft pick Boston would get if he signs elsewhere. Otherwise, the Sox would be better off keeping their superstar for another entire season. I just don't have any confidence at all that if they trade him that he would be willing to immediately re-sign. No player sent packing by a club ever comes back in his prime. The only example I can think of is Chapman (and now Yankee fans will always have that image of him smiling after he lost the pennant).

[notin]

No one wants to lose Betts for nothing, which is basically what we'd get if he walks after 2020. He always praises the team, city and region, but has never said he wants to stay in Boston or even that he'd like to stay. This could be Mookie's strategy to prevent any notions of a home-town discount. Or, it could be a message to other suitors that they'd better pony up because the Sox are still in play (even if they're not). I think management already has a plan A, B and C ready for JD, JBJ and Betts, no matter who they label "GM". The new guy's responsibility will be to follow those plans and use his/her connections around baseball to maximize the returns of any deal, with pitching a priority. Any Betts swap needs to be a haul, with MLB-ready prospects coming back, or it will still look and feel like nothing more than the compensatory draft pick Boston would get if he signs elsewhere. Otherwise, the Sox would be better off keeping their superstar for another entire season. I just don't have any confidence at all that if they trade him that he would be willing to immediately re-sign. No player sent packing by a club ever comes back in his prime. The only example I can think of is Chapman (and now Yankee fans will always have that image of him smiling after he lost the pennant).

 

Rickey Henderson did it as well. Ok he was 34 years old and not in his chronological prime, but he also was coming off a season with a .906 OPS. So maybe his prime lasted longer than most players'...

[notin]

i agree with this.

if we dont reset this year JH will not want to pay all the extra tax $$ on a Betts LTC.

 

 

... which opens the door for other bidders, notably those who lost out on Stanton, Harper and Machado, to come in and use the money they were already prepared to spend and try for Betts...

[Slasher9]

Rickey Henderson did it as well. Ok he was 34 years old and not in his chronological prime, but he also was coming off a season with a .906 OPS. So maybe his prime lasted longer than most players'...

 

rickey was a steroid user. bigly.

[notin]

rickey was a steroid user. bigly.

 

He apparently used them to increase his bases on balls. That was his big weapon. He rarely swung the bat.

 

Henderson retired as the all time leader in 3 categories - walks, runs, and stolen bases. (Since passed by Barry Bonds in walks.) These are not categories typically bolstered by steroid usage...

[Slasher9]

... which opens the door for other bidders, notably those who lost out on Stanton, Harper and Machado, to come in and use the money they were already prepared to spend and try for Betts...

 

it's going to be a bidding war for sure. Betts basically deemed that when he stated he won't sign extension and is going to FA. with a 2020 reset we will be in the best possible position for JH to open his wallet for the betts sweepstakes....345MM/12 is what it will take....

[notin]

it's going to be a bidding war for sure. Betts basically deemed that when he stated he won't sign extension and is going to FA. with a 2020 reset we will be in the best possible position for JH to open his wallet for the betts sweepstakes....345MM/12 is what it will take....

 

I can't guess on numbers, but I do agree it will be exorbitant. (Such an astute observation on my part.) And the Sox need to position themselves to be in the best position to make that offer...

[mvp 78]

Has JBJ been traded yet?

[S5Dewey]

The more I hear these big numbers for Mookie being thrown around the more is sounds Pedroia-esque to me. We signed Pedey to a long term contract and now people are asking themselves, "What were we doing???" because Pedey is now injured (Thanks, Manny! Ugh) and we still have that contract on the books. I'm not predicting an injury.

 

Even without an injury isn't it realistic to think that Mookie will be past his prime in 10 years and we'll be stuck with his contract? And we'll be complaining about it like we're now complaining about Pedroia and his contract.

[notin]

The more I hear these big numbers for Mookie being thrown around the more is sounds Pedroia-esque to me. We signed Pedey to a long term contract and now people are asking themselves, "What were we doing???" because Pedey is now injured (Thanks, Manny! Ugh) and we still have that contract on the books. I'm not predicting an injury.

 

Even without an injury isn't it realistic to think that Mookie will be past his prime in 10 years and we'll be stuck with his contract? And we'll be complaining about it like we're now complaining about Pedroia and his contract.

 

Oh there is an absolute risk.

 

I always expected Betts to get something similar to Arenado, who got 8 years, as he will be a little older than Machado and Harper when he hits free agency. But even 8 years is not without risk. And the big question is, how many years will be deadweight? Will he be like Price, and give the Sox one good year and then revert to mediocrity? Or will he manage to be productive for 5 or 6 years and leave a bunch of deadweight years at the end fans complain about?

 

The one team that seems to manage this type of risk well is the Dodgers, who keep bringing Kershaw back on relatively short deals...

Edited October 24, 2019 by notin

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I used to think of Rickey Henderson as the ultimate mercenary, but gained more respect for him when he kept playing a few more years on Independent League teams after the bigs. He refused to hang them up, like a lot of us amateurs stumbling around in adult leagues until our bodies won't let us anymore. On a tangent, one aspect of Mookie's pending departure that may be overlooked is fans wondering why... Like, who wouldn't want to stay -- very wealthy, that is -- in a place where everyone loves you, and your team is always dedicated to trying to win championships? But maybe Betts and his family are just thinking: been there/done that, won an MVP and a title, and now it's time for a new challenge. More importantly, they're from the South, and maybe think a return to warm weather is overdue (and maybe career-prolonging... as I age, I certainly understand not wanting to play in New England where Spring is now a myth). Atlanta and St. Louis wouldn't have the same media crunch as Boston, but the money and adoration would still be rock-star sufficient...

[Kimmi]

The more I hear these big numbers for Mookie being thrown around the more is sounds Pedroia-esque to me. We signed Pedey to a long term contract and now people are asking themselves, "What were we doing???" because Pedey is now injured (Thanks, Manny! Ugh) and we still have that contract on the books. I'm not predicting an injury.

 

Even without an injury isn't it realistic to think that Mookie will be past his prime in 10 years and we'll be stuck with his contract? And we'll be complaining about it like we're now complaining about Pedroia and his contract.

 

Bingo!

[moonslav59]

Bingo!

 

I guess Betts could get run over by Machado, too.

 

Note: Pedey will turn 38 right as his contract runs out. If we signed Betts to 10 years right now, he will have turned 37 just as his contract expires. If we sign him after next year as a free agent, he'll be the same age as Pedey after his 10 year deal expires.

 

Here's some major differences, though.

 

Pedey signed an 8 year deal, so his contract years run from age 31 to 38- virtually all the but maybe 2-3 years are post prime.

If Betts signs a 10 year deal at 2 years younger than Pedey was when he signed his deal, he'll have all but 4-5 years post prime. That's huge.

 

Pedey's OPS before the signing:

.861 2011

.797 2012

.787 2013 (signed extension 7/24/13)

 

Betts's OPS before signing:

1.078 2018

.915 2019

____ 2020?

 

Pedey plays a more physically demanding position (2B) than Betts (RF).

 

People claim speed does not age well, but power does. Betts has way more power than Pedey ever had. Pedey never had a SLG% above .493. Betts has been at .535 the last 4 years combined and .578 the last 2 years.

 

I think Betts will be highly productive at ages 29, 30, 31,32.

I think he will be productive at ages 33, 34 and maybe 35

He might be okay, but below his pay value at ages 36, 37 & 38. (How much below might be the biggest worry.)

 

6 or 7 good years and maybe 3-4 not worth the money years.

 

Yes, it will suck, if he gets hurt or declines sharply at an early age, but this is the guy I'd break the guidelines for.

[harmony]

One website gives current negative trade values of $24.8 million and $25.8 million, respectively, to two iconic Red Sox teammates, born 25 days apart, who led the Sox to two World Series titles:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That's a great compare and contrast, Moonslav59. Injuries derailed Pedey's borderline Cooperstown chances, but he is a good comp as the second best player Boston has drafted and developed this century so far. For another stat of perspective, Mookie's b-WAR in his 6 years is 42, close to Pedroia's 51.7 in 14 years (11 as a regular)... and really close to actual Hall of Famer Jim Rice's 47.7 in 16. Here's a list of other homegrown (in my lifetime) Red Sox and their career b-WAR and years of service, with Boston years in parenthesis: Yaz 96.4 (23+), Boggs 91.4 in 18 (11), Fisk 68.5 in 24 (11), Evans 67.1 in 20 (19), Reggie Smith 64.6 in 17 (8), Lynn 50.2 in 17 (7), Burks 49.8 in 18 (7), and Nomar 44.2 in 14 (9). There's also Bagwell 79.9 in 15 (0). It's not a stretch to see where Betts is headed historically... if he continues to play at a high level for another six years through age 33 and accumulates 30 more WAR -- an average of 5 WAR per season -- he'll be in the 70+ range. Every guy on the list over 68 is a Hall of Famer.

[Nick]

I guess Betts could get run over by Machado, too.

 

Note: Pedey will turn 38 right as his contract runs out. If we signed Betts to 10 years right now, he will have turned 37 just as his contract expires. If we sign him after next year as a free agent, he'll be the same age as Pedey after his 10 year deal expires.

 

Here's some major differences, though.

 

Pedey signed an 8 year deal, so his contract years run from age 31 to 38- virtually all the but maybe 2-3 years are post prime.

If Betts signs a 10 year deal at 2 years younger than Pedey was when he signed his deal, he'll have all but 4-5 years post prime. That's huge.

 

Pedey's OPS before the signing:

.861 2011

.797 2012

.787 2013 (signed extension 7/24/13)

 

Betts's OPS before signing:

1.078 2018

.915 2019

____ 2020?

 

Pedey plays a more physically demanding position (2B) than Betts (RF).

 

People claim speed does not age well, but power does. Betts has way more power than Pedey ever had. Pedey never had a SLG% above .493. Betts has been at .535 the last 4 years combined and .578 the last 2 years.

 

I think Betts will be highly productive at ages 29, 30, 31,32.

I think he will be productive at ages 33, 34 and maybe 35

He might be okay, but below his pay value at ages 36, 37 & 38. (How much below might be the biggest worry.)

 

6 or 7 good years and maybe 3-4 not worth the money years.

 

Yes, it will suck, if he gets hurt or declines sharply at an early age, but this is the guy I'd break the guidelines for.

 

 

They have dissimilar body type...one is pure athlete and other is not...

[moonslav59]

That's a great compare and contrast, Moonslav59. Injuries derailed Pedey's borderline Cooperstown chances, but he is a good comp as the second best player Boston has drafted and developed this century so far. For another stat of perspective, Mookie's b-WAR in his 6 years is 42, close to Pedroia's 51.7 in 14 years (11 as a regular)... and really close to actual Hall of Famer Jim Rice's 47.7 in 16. Here's a list of other homegrown (in my lifetime) Red Sox and their career b-WAR and years of service, with Boston years in parenthesis: Yaz 96.4 (23+), Boggs 91.4 in 18 (11), Fisk 68.5 in 24 (11), Evans 67.1 in 20 (19), Reggie Smith 64.6 in 17 (8), Lynn 50.2 in 17 (7), Burks 49.8 in 18 (7), and Nomar 44.2 in 14 (9). There's also Bagwell 79.9 in 15 (0). It's not a stretch to see where Betts is headed historically... if he continues to play at a high level for another six years through age 33 and accumulates 30 more WAR -- an average of 5 WAR per season -- he'll be in the 70+ range. Every guy on the list over 68 is a Hall of Famer.

 

Betts is the real deal. Letting him get away will be worse than letting Bagwell go. Much worse.