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The JD opt out

jacksonianmarch

By jacksonianmarch
in Boston Red Sox Talk

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harmony FCL Red Sox

harmony

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Posted
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I read news item about possibility of Price to Texas for Choo and Odor (5 million tax savings) Choo wd replace JD and Odor could play second. I believe Choo is in last year of contract (20 million)

 

I checked and 2020 is the final year of Choo's contract. perfect fit. Odor has 2-3 more years on his.

https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/rangers/2019/10/30/red-sox-may-look-to-shed-payroll-and-sources-say-the-rangers-have-had-internal-discussions-about-the-possibilities/

 

https://nypost.com/2019/10/27/the-moves-chaim-bloom-should-consider-to-navigate-difficult-red-sox-road/

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notin MVP

notin

Old-Timey Member
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I have to believe more money would have to go to Texas.

 

Choo has one year left at $21M, and Odor has an 8.25 luxury tax hit x 3 years. He also has a team option for 2023 at $13.5M with a $3.5M buyout. We'd be robbing the Rangers blind.

 

Odor hit 30 HRs (.721 OPS) this year and Choo 24 (.826 OPS). I'm sure his .205 BA would frustrate many Sox fans, but he is young and hit .253 in 2018. (BTW, Chavis hit just .221 second half.)

 

 

Price has $96mill left on his deal. Choo and Odor have about $55mill left between them. Per baseballtradevalues.com, this trade wouldn't be accepted by Texas unless Boston included at least $22mill, which would make a considerable dent in their $5mill AAV savings. Actually it would wipe it out and add another $2.3mill in AAV if it was spread out over 3 years.

 

Now it is possible that Texas thinks Price could be next in their line of Mike Minor/Lance Lynn Successful Reclamation projects, or someone in their organization just really likes Price. Or just really hates Odor. These trades do happen...

harmony FCL Red Sox

harmony

Verified Member
Posted
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According to Matt Cerrone, the Sox asking price for Betts was 1 mid-rotation starter, 1 outfielder, and 2 top 100 prospects.

 

That's a pretty steep asking price. Even if the Sox waiver a bit on the whole "top 100" thing, there is no way to get anything close to that and include Price in the deal without paying so much money that it defeats the purpose of including Price.

 

If the Sox deal Mookie, it's best to do so in a package that nets them the best prospects, and if those prospects are MLB-ready, their minimum wage salary helps offset the cost of Price...

https://985thesportshub.com/2019/10/03/report-red-sox-want-mix-of-prospects-and-big-leaguers-in-potential-betts-trade/

 

https://www.sny.tv/mets/news/sources-weigh-in-what-could-it-cost-mets-to-trade-for-mookie-betts/310993218

moonslav59 GOAT

moonslav59

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Price has $96mill left on his deal. Choo and Odor have about $55mill left between them. Per baseballtradevalues.com, this trade wouldn't be accepted by Texas unless Boston included at least $22mill, which would make a considerable dent in their $5mill AAV savings. Actually it would wipe it out and add another $2.3mill in AAV if it was spread out over 3 years.

 

Now it is possible that Texas thinks Price could be next in their line of Mike Minor/Lance Lynn Successful Reclamation projects, or someone in their organization just really likes Price. Or just really hates Odor. These trades do happen...

 

I'd add $22M and do this deal, or I'd add another player or two to keep the money down.

notin MVP

notin

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I have to believe more money would have to go to Texas.

 

Choo has one year left at $21M, and Odor has an 8.25 luxury tax hit x 3 years. He also has a team option for 2023 at $13.5M with a $3.5M buyout. We'd be robbing the Rangers blind.

 

Odor hit 30 HRs (.721 OPS) this year and Choo 24 (.826 OPS). I'm sure his .205 BA would frustrate many Sox fans, but he is young and hit .253 in 2018. (BTW, Chavis hit just .221 second half.)

 

 

Texas is also in the market for a 3B, and reportedly is eyeing former Rice Owl Anthony Rendon. But then, so will a lot of teams. Could the Sox entice a trade of Odor and Choo for Price and Dalbec (or Chavis)? The Sox don't have such an abundance of MLB-ready prospects that they should be dumping them to get out of money deals.

 

This is one of those deals that I wonder of the Sox could do it, and also if the Sox should do it...

moonslav59 GOAT

moonslav59

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Dalbec?

 

If no other money had to go to Texas, yes. I'd hate to part with Dalbec, but he is blocked, right now. (I'd rather add Chavis and move Devers or Dalbec to 1B.)

 

Getting out from under Price's deal would give us a lot budget space to add valuable players for 3 years.

 

BTW, who was the poster who said we'd regret it, if Price opted out?

 

Was it 700?

notin MVP

notin

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
How about Price, Eovaldi, Travis and $7M/yr for 3 years for Choo & Odor?

 

I think Texas has laws against that kind of robbery...

Bellhorn04 MVP

Bellhorn04

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
It makes me think DD didn't really want to trade JBJ.

 

Sorry Dewey, but I have to issue one of my corrections. That post was about our asking price for Mookie.

S5Dewey FCL Red Sox

S5Dewey

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Sorry Dewey, but I have to issue one of my corrections. That post was about our asking price for Mookie.

 

Oops. My bad. I'll correct mine then. It makes me think DD didn't really want to trade Mookie. :D

S5Dewey FCL Red Sox

S5Dewey

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

It looks like we have three players who are 'on the bubble' for 2020.

Mookie @ ~$30M

JDM @ $22M

JBJ @ $ ~10M

 

JDM + JBJ ~ = Mookie in cost.

 

Mookie is an asset both offensively and defensively.

JDM is an asset offensively and a liability defensively

JBJ is a liability offensively (I guess, although his numbers don't indicate it) and an asset defensively. So much for "You are what your numbers say you are", I guess. :(

 

 

This whole thing should center on what JDM does in regards to opting out. If he opts out we should hold onto Mookie for another season because we're going to want both his offense and his defense, and let JBJ go. We don't want to replace both our CF'er and out RF'er.. .do we? Has anyone thought about what this would do to our great outfield??? Ask the pitching staff what they think of losing both Mookie and JBJ.

 

If JDM wants to stay we keep JBJ and trade Mookie. We keep JDM's offense and JBJ's defense and continue to bury JBJ up near the bottom of the order.

 

Both of those options cost about the same by reducing the payroll by ~$30M and they keep the team relatively competitive.

5GoldGlovesOF,75 Greenville Drive

5GoldGlovesOF,75

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

"Both of those options cost about the same by reducing the payroll by ~$30M and they keep the team relatively competitive."

 

And yet, this is a perfect illustration of why Mookie is worth a 30 mil per contract: if JD goes, we lose high quality offense; if JBJ goes we lose high quality defense... if Betts goes, we lose both high quality offense and defense.

fxkatt Draft Eligible

fxkatt

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Well, we find out about JD in 6 days at most.

 

The countdown has begun...

 

If JD opts in, can we trade him to a team like the White Sox? Or does he have some no-trade clause. At the moment, I do think he will opt out and get a 3 year 75 million contract.

notin MVP

notin

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
there isnt a no trade clause.

he is definitely opting out though....

 

Think so?

 

I will say that if he does, it isn’t a smart move on his part...

moonslav59 GOAT

moonslav59

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Think so?

 

I will say that if he does, it isn’t a smart move on his part...

 

If I were him, and I felt healthy, I'd not opt out and go for broke after 2020.

oldtimer FCL Red Sox

oldtimer

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
If I were him, and I felt healthy, I'd not opt out and go for broke after 2020.

 

Then there is a chance his health will deteriorate and his season numbers in 2020 will be worse. He has to weigh both possibilities. Its one of those bird in the hand scenarios.

Bellhorn04 MVP

Bellhorn04

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
I think there's a chance JD opts out because of all the noise happening with the Sox these days, and all the rumors that he'll be traded if he doesn't opt out. He might prefer to control his own destiny even if it costs him a few mill.
Kimmi Boston Red Sox

Kimmi

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I agree....it's possible that JD opts out for bigger money and has great couple of years....good for him.

 

Fans forget that under normal circumstances (ie we've overspent) we are GAINING JD's salary...$22-24M....enough to acuqire another bat.

 

His contract was excellent for both sides.

 

It would stink to lose JD's bat, but having him opt out wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

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