The JD opt out

[moonslav59]

That's kind of an irrational request since I don't know what he'd accept. I'd offer him a one year contract to try to rebuild his reputation for $10-$12M. Whether he'd accept it would be up to him.

 

I'd save that by taking the $5M we're not paying Pablo next year and adding in the $6.25M we're not paying Steve Pearce.

 

He might take $10-12M, but I'd think he might be worth $12M/2.

 

$11M would really tighten the budget and would mean JBJ and someone else would have to go to reset, or trade JD.

[moonslav59]

I don't know. But it seems to me if the thinking is "Sure. Porcello had a mediocre year. So he won't mind being punished with a one-year contract, worth half what he's making now" then you might as well plan to low-ball Mookie as well (who also will welcome the chance to 'rebuild his reputation'). I think it's far more likely RP and his agent think 'Damn! I'm a Cy Young winner, and I plan on being paid like one.' I.e., exactly what you and I would think if we were in the same (unimaginable!) position.

 

That's what Keuchel thought, and his "bad year" was better than Porcello's 2-3 off years.

[TylerD]

That's what Keuchel thought, and his "bad year" was better than Porcello's 2-3 off years.

 

True that, porcello usually follows a bad year with s good year however

 

So there’s that lol.

[notin]

If JD does opt out, expect him to receive the dreaded Quailfying Offer that further limits his appeal.

 

It's just another reason I don't expect him to...

[fxkatt]

If JD does opt out, expect him to receive the dreaded Quailfying Offer that further limits his appeal.

 

It's just another reason I don't expect him to...

 

I assume he hasn't previously received a qualifying offer. If he accepts this one, what salary does he get? the qualifying offer or the 3rd year of his contract offer? I assume these numbers would be pretty similar. Yeah, it does look like he'll be back. If he accepts the QO can he then be traded?

[jacksonianmarch]

Yes he can be, but I think it is only in June.

 

The QO means literally nothing to the Red Sox. It can mean the world to the player. The sox would get the equivalent of a 4th rounder. I wonder if the sox have called Boras and went over the contingencies. The sox may be able to deal JDM. The sox could easily allow him to walk if he opts out. I wonder if they have some sort of back room deal where if he opts out, he doesn't get the QO

[notin]

I assume he hasn't previously received a qualifying offer. If he accepts this one, what salary does he get? the qualifying offer or the 3rd year of his contract offer? I assume these numbers would be pretty similar. Yeah, it does look like he'll be back. If he accepts the QO can he then be traded?

 

He was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer last time he was a free agent because Detroit traded him midway through the season to Arizona....

[notin]

Yes he can be, but I think it is only in June.

 

The QO means literally nothing to the Red Sox. It can mean the world to the player. The sox would get the equivalent of a 4th rounder. I wonder if the sox have called Boras and went over the contingencies. The sox may be able to deal JDM. The sox could easily allow him to walk if he opts out. I wonder if they have some sort of back room deal where if he opts out, he doesn't get the QO

 

Why would the Sox not give him a QO if he opts out? That does nothing to benefit them. If they extend the QO, it gives them more leverage for bringing him back (presumably at a lesser AAV) since they are the one team that would not be affected by it.

 

If JD opts out, he is getting a Qualifying Offer. Same goes for Chapman...

[fxkatt]

Yes he can be, but I think it is only in June.

 

The QO means literally nothing to the Red Sox. It can mean the world to the player. The sox would get the equivalent of a 4th rounder. I wonder if the sox have called Boras and went over the contingencies. The sox may be able to deal JDM. The sox could easily allow him to walk if he opts out. I wonder if they have some sort of back room deal where if he opts out, he doesn't get the QO

 

It seems that the Sox would get a 1st Round (supplement) pick for JD. After all, he will almost certainly be signing for more than 50 million.

[notin]

It seems that the Sox would get a 1st Round (supplement) pick for JD. After all, he will almost certainly be signing for more than 50 million.

 

But if he opts out this year, he is walking away from $60mill.

 

If he opts out after next season, it's only $38,4mill...

[cp176]

That's three of us now.

 

4 - Porcello has been to damned physically consistent (not good consistently) but so damned durable. I doubt he will take much of a hit with respect to what he is making but it would be silly not to at least make him an offer that he can refuse. He is what in reality he always has been - a solidly consistent innings eating number 3 or 4 kind of guy.

[moonslav59]

4 - Porcello has been to damned physically consistent (not good consistently) but so damned durable. I doubt he will take much of a hit with respect to what he is making but it would be silly not to at least make him an offer that he can refuse. He is what in reality he always has been - a solidly consistent innings eating number 3 or 4 kind of guy.

 

I guess being a #5, #1, #5, #4 and #5 averages out to a 3-4, but I think going forward, he rates to be a 4-5 who gives more innings than most 4-5's.

 

It's great to get a lot of innings from a starter, but it's not so great if it's at 5.00 to 5.50 ERA rate.

 

4.36 ERA career

4.43 ERA with Boston

4.79 ERA last 3 years

4.87 ERA last 2 years

5.52 ERA last 1 year (second least IP since 2010)

[fxkatt]

I think we've lucked out with Porcello's physical dependability to this point. I say don't press your luck further... because he's probably due for an injury or some form of break-down. Will miss him, tho, because he has been the sole workhorse on the team. What will we be without that?? Edited October 3, 2019 by fxkatt

[notin]

According to Sam Kennedy, a reset is “a goal but not a mandate.”

 

That does mean there is a good chance Porcello, along with Moreland, Holt, Pearce, Wright, and Bradley, is probably gone.

 

And Heath Hembree is on the fence...

[Bellhorn04]

I guess being a #5, #1, #5, #4 and #5 averages out to a 3-4, but I think going forward, he rates to be a 4-5 who gives more innings than most 4-5's.

 

It's great to get a lot of innings from a starter, but it's not so great if it's at 5.00 to 5.50 ERA rate.

 

4.36 ERA career

4.43 ERA with Boston

4.79 ERA last 3 years

4.87 ERA last 2 years

5.52 ERA last 1 year (second least IP since 2010)

 

If you go by Porcello's ERA+ with Boston:

 

2015 87 #4

2016 142 #1

2017 98 #3

2018 103 #3

2019 87 #4

[moonslav59]

If you go by Porcello's ERA+ with Boston:

 

2015 87 #4

2016 142 #1

2017 98 #3

2018 103 #3

2019 87 #4

 

I'm not anti Porcello. I loved the trade for him. I loved the extension. I still think he was worth the contract, barely, but what I loved most about the contract was that all the years were before age 30-31. His next deal is different, and he has been trending perfectly to the age curve.

 

ERA-

Recent Odd Years

118> 102> 104

Recent Even Years

89>71>96

 

His best career even year: 2016 (71)

His best career odd year: 2017 (102)

 

2018 (96) was worse than 2014 (89)

2019 (114) was his worst since 2011 (114)/2010 (117)

 

Now, if you follow the even-odd trends (not my belief) with the expected age curve decline, maybe he can give:

2020: 100-106 #3-4

2021: 118-124 #5

 

A 1 year deal might make sense- not two.

 

[Swiharts Ghost]

I can feel JD back he would be an idiot to walk with that kind of coin as a DH .Mookie can stay only if we can off load Price or Sale and that I can see happening .

[jacksonianmarch]

It seems that the Sox would get a 1st Round (supplement) pick for JD. After all, he will almost certainly be signing for more than 50 million.

 

Nope, as the Sox aren’t a revenue sharing recipient and are over the threshold, they get a 4th rounder

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mlb.com/amp/news/mlb-qualifying-offer-rules-explained-c259650658.html

[moonslav59]

Nope, as the Sox aren’t a revenue sharing recipient and are over the threshold, they get a 4th rounder

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mlb.com/amp/news/mlb-qualifying-offer-rules-explained-c259650658.html

 

These are the penalties that make it hard for winning and big spending teams to rebuild.

 

It's not as easy as the days when Theo and Ben were raking in comp picks.

[notin]

I can feel JD back he would be an idiot to walk with that kind of coin as a DH .Mookie can stay only if we can off load Price or Sale and that I can see happening .

 

Really? You see another team taking on either contract?

 

It would be easier to trade JD Martinez than either Price or Sale...

[Nick]

Really? You see another team taking on either contract?

 

It would be easier to trade JD Martinez than either Price or Sale...

 

I refuse to believe Sale, Price and Eovaldi will replicate last year for next three years.

 

I'm assuming our medical people examined thoroughly Chris Sale before he was extended. Did he sustain 'new' injury during 2019? Something doesn't add up.

[harmony]

I refuse to believe Sale, Price and Eovaldi will replicate last year for next three years.

I'm assuming our medical people examined thoroughly Chris Sale before he was extended. Did he sustain 'new' injury during 2019? Something doesn't add up.

In each of the next three years will Chris Sale, David Price and Nathan Eovaldi be better or worse than the combined 5.6 fWAR the trio posted in 2019?

[moonslav59]

Really? You see another team taking on either contract?

 

It would be easier to trade JD Martinez than either Price or Sale...

 

Agreed, but we don't have to trade the whole contracts of Price or Eovaldi to be able to afford Betts.

 

(I'm for keeping Sale.)

[notin]

Agreed, but we don't have to trade the whole contracts of Price or Eovaldi to be able to afford Betts.

 

(I'm for keeping Sale.)

 

The Sox would have to kick in quite a bit for either since both spent most of the season injured and came back with questionable effectiveness...

[Slasher9]

2020 trade deadline if either or both price/EO are pitching well/healthy and we are not in contention we may be able to offload them without too much of a $$$ hit. this offseason they are worthless in trade value.

[moonslav59]

The Sox would have to kick in quite a bit for either since both spent most of the season injured and came back with questionable effectiveness...

 

I'm not sure what your "quite a bit" means, but Eovaldi was signed for $17M x 4 after several injury-ridden seasons. Big FA signings of injury prone pitchers are plenty.

 

My guess is, we could dump either by paying 1/3 and get something back by paying 1/2 or thereabouts.

[harmony]

I'm not sure what your "quite a bit" means, but Eovaldi was signed for $17M x 4 after several injury-ridden seasons. Big FA signings of injury prone pitchers are plenty.

 

My guess is, we could dump either by paying 1/3 and get something back by paying 1/2 or thereabouts.

According to this website, David Price has a negative value of $69.9 million with $96 million remaining on his contract while Nathan Eovaldi has a negative value of $42.7 million with $51 million remaining on his contract:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

[OH FOY]

Seam McAdam had a long column, in which he calculated everything. Including the LOW end of arbitration money, and says we will be 10 million over the Cap, just staying put, with No Free Agents.

And letting go guys like Leon, and others.

[OH FOY]

According to this website, David Price has a negative value of $69.9 million with $96 million remaining on his contract while Nathan Eovaldi has a negative value of $42.7 million with $51 million remaining on his contract:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

That's the thing about those long term contracts, you have to perform, year after year, for almost the entire contract for it to be worth it. Its hard, baseball is a tough game to be consistent. One or 2 injuries, and long time on the IR kills it. You have to play.

All the odds are against you on long term deals. Anything 5 years plus after the Age of 29.

10 year contract work, if the Player is say 23, and its over when his best days are behind him. Betts just turned 27, he'll be 28 when he is a FA, too old at that time for a 10 year contract. You will hopefully get 5 very good years, maybe. Then contract catches up to the team. 5 years at huge money for a declining player. That blocks others to play his position. Always the DH I Guess, if your still hitting good.

Edited October 12, 2019 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

According to this website, David Price has a negative value of $69.9 million with $96 million remaining on his contract while Nathan Eovaldi has a negative value of $42.7 million with $51 million remaining on his contract:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

You believe that?

 

You think Eovaldi would get just a $8.3M/3 year offer, if he was a FA this winter? (My guess is he'd get at least that for 1 year.)

 

Price would only get $26M/3? Really? (My guess is he'd get $45M/3 easily.)

 

I know these guys have injury issues, but if Brett Anderson can get $15.8M/1 from the Dodgers with his long history of injury, my guess is some GM would value both of these guys way more than this.

 

I could be off with my numbers but not by that much.