Mookie Betts: Trade or Extend

[harmony]

They’re not gonna deal years of Rizzo for a year of Betts

This website suggests that Mookie Betts has $40.1 million in surplus value and Anthony Rizzo $27 million in surplus value:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

Warm regards,

 

The Cooler

[Bellhorn04]

If we trade Betts, it won't be for one 2 year player.

 

A trade for Betts has to bring back a legit pitching prospect or two.

[moonslav59]

A trade for Betts has to bring back a legit pitching prospect or two.

 

or three...

[Kimmi]

Betts is not being traded.

[moonslav59]

Betts is not being traded.

 

I think we trade JD & JBJ and see where we are at the deadline.

[Kimmi]

I think we trade JD & JBJ and see where we are at the deadline.

 

It's possible. JBJ I can definitely see. JD, not as much. I think we'll see much of the same team return, with an eye on resetting next off season, but I certainly wouldn't be completely shocked if they are both gone.

[moonslav59]

It's possible. JBJ I can definitely see. JD, not as much. I think we'll see much of the same team return, with an eye on resetting next off season, but I certainly wouldn't be completely shocked if they are both gone.

 

Keeping JD will basically mean we have just about no budget space at all- even without JBJ.

[Elktonnick]

I think we trade JD & JBJ and see where we are at the deadline.

 

Can't trade JD if he opts out, and he will opt out IMO

[moonslav59]

Can't trade JD if he opts out, and he will opt out IMO

 

I didn't think he would, and I think he won't make what he will in 2020, but maybe he wants a longer term deal.

 

It sounds like he's seriously thinking about opting out. Too bad we get nothing for him.

[a700hitter]

I didn't think he would, and I think he won't make what he will in 2020, but maybe he wants a longer term deal.

 

It sounds like he's seriously thinking about opting out. Too bad we get nothing for him.

It would be nice to have a real GM in place to act on this instead of this ridiculous GM by committee garbage.

[moonslav59]

It would be nice to have a real GM in place to act on this instead of this ridiculous GM by committee garbage.

 

True, but rushing it might be worse.

[jacksonianmarch]

It would be nice to have a real GM in place to act on this instead of this ridiculous GM by committee garbage.

 

After Theo left, Ben was the "GM" but there were lots of fingers in pots. The one thing DD did was consolidate power. The only thing a "GM by committee" does is allow for finger pointing and create a built-in excuse for failure.

[notin]

After Theo left, Ben was the "GM" but there were lots of fingers in pots. The one thing DD did was consolidate power. The only thing a "GM by committee" does is allow for finger pointing and create a built-in excuse for failure.

 

That is 100% dependent on the people involved.

 

The Sox did have a small committee before when Epstein walked out, and there was none of that. In fact, they pulled off one of the most important trades for the 2007 World Series title...

[jacksonianmarch]

That is 100% dependent on the people involved.

 

The Sox did have a small committee before when Epstein walked out, and there was none of that. In fact, they pulled off one of the most important trades for the 2007 World Series title...

 

Most of the time, having anything "by committee" is a bad thing. I get that the 03 team with Theo as the defacto GM certainly qualifies as a "by committee" FO. But he seized power pretty quickly. It was Lucchino's meddling that caused the gorilla suit thing and then Lucchino's meddling that screwed with Cherington. I still remember the quotes from Tito. We are winning but we need some more pizzazz. You need to hire a baseball president of ops who is the decision maker. Than hire a green GM to grow with the president

[Elktonnick]

I didn't think he would, and I think he won't make what he will in 2020, but maybe he wants a longer term deal.

 

It sounds like he's seriously thinking about opting out. Too bad we get nothing for him.

 

There has been a great deal of speculation that the Sox actually want him to opt out. They could make a Qualifying offer which he won't accept of course. Then there would be draft picks. So if JDM does opt out the Sox do get a salary dump which isn't exactly nothing, at least not in respects to JH's current thinking.

[jacksonianmarch]

There has been a great deal of speculation that the Sox actually want him to opt out. They could make a Qualifying offer which he won't accept of course. Then there would be draft picks. So if JDM does opt out the Sox do get a salary dump which isn't exactly nothing, at least not in respects to JH's current thinking.

 

The sox would get a pick after the fourth round if JD gets a QO and declines it. Not exactly a good trade off

[moonslav59]

There has been a great deal of speculation that the Sox actually want him to opt out. They could make a Qualifying offer which he won't accept of course. Then there would be draft picks. So if JDM does opt out the Sox do get a salary dump which isn't exactly nothing, at least not in respects to JH's current thinking.

 

Yes, we save salary, but a 4th round pick is almost useless.

[Elktonnick]

Most of the time, having anything "by committee" is a bad thing. I get that the 03 team with Theo as the defacto GM certainly qualifies as a "by committee" FO. But he seized power pretty quickly. It was Lucchino's meddling that caused the gorilla suit thing and then Lucchino's meddling that screwed with Cherington. I still remember the quotes from Tito. We are winning but we need some more pizzazz. You need to hire a baseball president of ops who is the decision maker. Than hire a green GM to grow with the president

 

I know everyone loves to dump on Lucchino but one must give the devil his due. Lucchino work in getting Camden Yards built arguably saved baseball in Baltimore and caused a revitalization of the game at the major and minor league levels. He did much the same in San Diego. Lucchino is also largely credited with saving Fenway Park from the wrecking ball. Finally a reminder to all those who vilify Lucchino for his treatment of Theo remember it was Lucchino who brought Epstein to Boston in the first place.

 

Lucchino may have been a tough not very likeable SOB but that what it takes to deal with all those Maryland Californian and Massachusetts poiliticos to get projects done. Epstein and Cherrington for all their baseball talents simply aren't in Lucchinos league when it comes to that side of baseball.

[Elktonnick]

Yes, we save salary, but a 4th round pick is almost useless.

 

Almost useless is not the same as nothing and neither is the 20 plus million in salary dump if your goal is to cut payroll and get below the lux tax thresh hold. BTW before you bloviate that the fourth round is "Almost useless" you should check out the historical record of major leaguers who were drafted in the 4th round or later. I find it more than ironic that we are talking about JD Martinez who was drafted in 2009 in the 20th round. He was pick nbr 611

Edited October 7, 2019 by Elktonnick

[Nick]

Yes, we save salary, but a 4th round pick is almost useless.

 

If we keep everyone else (dumping Porcello, Pearce, Moreland, Nunez, Holt), do we have enough to make the playoffs AND contend for World Championship in 2020?

 

If the answer is HELL NO, then we should clean house and reload in 2021. Trade away Betts, JBJ and JD? Re-sign Betts in 2021?

[Bellhorn04]

Almost useless is not the same as nothing and neither is the 20 plus million in salary dump if your goal is to cut payroll and get below the lux tax thresh hold. BTW before you bloviate that the fourth round is "Almost useless" you should check out the historical record of major leaguers who were drafted in the 4th round or later. I find it more than ironic that we are talking about JD Martinez who was drafted in 2009 in the 20th round. He was pick nbr 611

 

Mookie Betts was a 5th rounder.

[moonslav59]

If we keep everyone else (dumping Porcello, Pearce, Moreland, Nunez, Holt), do we have enough to make the playoffs AND contend for World Championship in 2020?

 

If the answer is HELL NO, then we should clean house and reload in 2021. Trade away Betts, JBJ and JD? Re-sign Betts in 2021?

 

I thought we could compete in 2019, so who knows.

 

This team minus those FAs, some are addition by subtraction and JD and JBJ could still compete, but it's kind of a long shot.

 

If we lose JD and JBJ, I'd clean house to try and shorten the rebuild window.

[Elktonnick]

I thought we could compete in 2019, so who knows.

 

This team minus those FAs, some are addition by subtraction and JD and JBJ could still compete, but it's kind of a long shot.

 

If we lose JD and JBJ, I'd clean house to try and shorten the rebuild window.

 

Really! Do you honestly think that Red Sox fans in Boston would tolerate house cleaning? I don't!!

[moonslav59]

Really! Do you honestly think that Red Sox fans in Boston would tolerate house cleaning? I don't!!

 

I never said they would.

 

Here's how I'd try to handle a rebuild:

 

I'd trade JD, JBJ & Betts, then re-sign Betts.

 

I'd sign some stop gap guys to keep us from being horrible, but nobody to longer term deals, unless I felt they'd be part of the next competitive team (2021? Not likely. 2022? Maybe.)

 

I remember thinking we had a pretty good team in the spring of 2012, 2014 and 2015 (and 2019), but we sucked. It's all about perception.

[Nick]

I never said they would.

 

Here's how I'd try to handle a rebuild:

 

I'd trade JD, JBJ & Betts, then re-sign Betts.

 

I'd sign some stop gap guys to keep us from being horrible, but nobody to longer term deals, unless I felt they'd be part of the next competitive team (2021? Not likely. 2022? Maybe.)

 

I remember thinking we had a pretty good team in the spring of 2012, 2014 and 2015 (and 2019), but we sucked. It's all about perception.

 

I will accept .500 season as long as younger guys are playing. I don't want to see Morelands of world taking up opportunity from our younger kids.

[notin]

I will accept .500 season as long as younger guys are playing. I don't want to see Morelands of world taking up opportunity from our younger kids.

 

But he is only taking the opportunity of Sam Travis-ty...

[moonslav59]

I will accept .500 season as long as younger guys are playing. I don't want to see Morelands of world taking up opportunity from our younger kids.

 

I agree.

 

I'm not sure Duran is ML ready, so I think signing a cheap defensive whiz to play CF (maybe part time) next year might make sense.

 

Assuming no bring back lost FAs and no JD & JBJ...

 

I'd like to see Dalbec be Devers' back-up and play some 1B.

 

I'd like to see Ockimey get a legit shot at making the team as a platoon (vs RHPs ONLY) 1B/DH. I'm not saying he deserves a slot, but he rakes righties, and let's find out what he can do.

 

I'd like to see Travis get a shot, but honestly, I don't have hardly any confidence in him being a useful piece to a championship team. He may just fill a role, next year and then be gone.

 

I'd let Chavis fight for the 2B and 1B job and maybe DH some. He would not be guaranteed a job going into spring. He was sub .700 after his first 3 weeks in MLB.

 

I'd like to see Chatham, Marco and Lin fight for the 2B/utility IF job. I'm not sure there is room for two, especially if Chavis is going to play a lot at 2B.

 

I'm fine with letting Duran have a go at it, but I think he needs another year in AAA.

 

I'm not sure we'll need Leon to be Sale's binky anymore, but I don't see playing Centeno as revealing anything about our future, so either way is fine with me.

 

If the budget permits, maybe we can bring up Castillo and do him a favor by letting him set some value for his upcoming FA season.

 

As for the pitching, obviously I want to see more of D Hern. I'm not sure Houck is ready, but I trust the Sox to know when he, Mata, Feltman and Ward are ready. I'm not sure anyone else peaks my interest, so the bulk of innings should go to Sale, Price, ERod, Eovaldi and the same pen we had this year plus maybe one FA. I'm okay with signing a one year 5th starter type, especially if DHern is marked for the pen.

 

[moonslav59]

But he is only taking the opportunity of Sam Travis-ty...

 

I'd like to see a Dalbec-Ockimey platoon with Chavis taking over, if one fails or another 2Bman squeezes him out of that job or platoon.

[notin]

I'd like to see a Dalbec-Ockimey platoon with Chavis taking over, if one fails or another 2Bman squeezes him out of that job or platoon.

 

I think more like they get a lefty-hitting career platoon guy like Matt Adams, and let him and Travis handle 1b.

 

If they go the platoon route...

[moonslav59]

I think more like they get a lefty-hitting career platoon guy like Matt Adams, and let him and Travis handle 1b.

 

If they go the platoon route...

 

You seem pretty sure on Dalbec being traded, and I can see the point about his value at 3B is worth more than to us at 1B.

 

I've never been high on Travis, and he didn't help himself out this year.

 

Your scenario makes sense, especially if we want to give the perception we will try to win a ring sans JD & JBJ.