Mookie Betts: Trade or Extend

[jacksonianmarch]

so you would be OK with the Red Sox signing Mookie to a 12 year / $438MM contract?

 

This is the problem. Eventually, you have to reset. Eventually, it isn't profitable. And while fans don't care about their team's profitability, it will show in the prices of their tickets. Mookie is gonna start at an Arenado contract.

[S5Dewey]

 

MAJOR LEAGUE ! LOL

 

Bad move. Resetting after 2020 guarantees the Sox lose both Bradley and Betts. And Martinez will likely opt out for reasons unrelated to losing those two. The Sox will be left with Bogaerts, Devers, Benintendi and hope that Price, Sale, Eovaldi can all pitch. No help from below and obviously none coming in via free agency. Everyone always says "this one last title will be worth it," but no one means it. I didn't see anyone saying "But we still have 2013" as the Sox stumbled across the finish line in last place for the second consecutive season in 2015.

I've already resigned myself to losing JDM and either JBJ or Betts - and maybe both. That's what a reset is. It saves us a ton of money to reset the team with, and yes, we may be finishing last for a year or two. Well.. not quite last as long as Baltimore is in the ALE. But far enough down to restock the farm through drafts.

 

And BTW, although I didn't verbalize it, I thoroughly enjoyed the 2014 & 2015 seasons, watching our two premier outfielders play together. I had no delusions about those teams making the playoffs, there was no angst when they lost, I was able to just sit back, munch popcorn, and enjoy the games.

 

Does that make me a "bad fan"?

[dgalehouse]

I've already resigned myself to losing JDM and either JBJ or Betts - and maybe both. That's what a reset is. It saves us a ton of money to reset the team with, and yes, we may be finishing last for a year or two. Well.. not quite last as long as Baltimore is in the ALE. But far enough down to restock the farm through drafts.

 

And BTW, although I didn't verbalize it, I thoroughly enjoyed the 2014 & 2015 seasons, watching our two premier outfielders play together. I had no delusions about those teams making the playoffs, there was no angst when they lost, I was able to just sit back, munch popcorn, and enjoy the games.

 

Does that make me a "bad fan"?

We didn't bounce back from those two straight dismal cellar finishes by restocking the farm . We bounced back by acquiring the top quality players that we needed .

[Bellhorn04]

We didn't bounce back from those two straight dismal cellar finishes by restocking the farm . We bounced back by acquiring the top quality players that we needed .

 

Yes, by emptying the farm which had been restocked. So the restocking had to take place first.

[dgalehouse]

Yes, by emptying the farm which had been restocked. So the restocking had to take place first.

 

As stated in my farm anology , the farm always has to be re- planted . But you don't want to go hungry for two years while waiting . Not when you are the richest farmer in the state .

[Bellhorn04]

As stated in my farm anology , the farm always has to be re- planted . But you don't want to go hungry for two years while waiting . Not when you are the richest farmer in the state .

 

Our farm is absolutely barren right now, so the only way to get food is to buy it at hefty market prices.

[dgalehouse]

We do have a couple of guys ( Chavis , Hernandez , Hernandez , Dalbec and maybe Duran ) to fill our immediate needs . Developing pitching has been an ongoing problem . No doubt about that . The contracts for Price , Sale and Eovaldi could be a continuing problem .I am not advocating going big for a guy like Cole , just for keeping our top guys in the fold . To me , all this reset talk is nonsense . It is crazy to even think of losing Betts .

[jacksonianmarch]

If you keep the band together and continue to try and win a title through the next 12-24 months, you wont win a title and you will essentially curse the next 5 years

[notin]

We do have a couple of guys ( Chavis , Hernandez , Hernandez , Dalbec and maybe Duran ) to fill our immediate needs . Developing pitching has been an ongoing problem . No doubt about that . The contracts for Price , Sale and Eovaldi could be a continuing problem .I am not advocating going big for a guy like Cole , just for keeping our top guys in the fold . To me , all this reset talk is nonsense . It is crazy to even think of losing Betts .

 

Per Alex Speier, the Sox are thinking about trading Betts, solely for financial reasons.

 

The reset talk might seem like nonsense for a large market team, but I have to think Henry isn't all that wild about repeatedly paying ever-growing luxury tax payments that offer 0 chance of ROI. That he capped DD's spending this season does show even he has his limits...

[moonslav59]

Per Alex Speier, the Sox are thinking about trading Betts, solely for financial reasons.

 

The reset talk might seem like nonsense for a large market team, but I have to think Henry isn't all that wild about repeatedly paying ever-growing luxury tax payments that offer 0 chance of ROI. That he capped DD's spending this season does show even he has his limits...

 

Who are the "thinking Sox?"

 

Henry?

 

We have no GM.

 

I'm hoping that if we do decide to trade Betts this winter, we make a push at signing him after 2020.

 

If we trade Betts, we might as well trade JBJ, and maybe even ERod, Workman and Barnes. Build up the farm. Keep a core of Bogey, Devers, Beni, Vaz and out of necessity, Sale, Price and E-o.

 

Maybe look to spend again for 2021, but only players that look to have long term impact, or waiting until 2022 might also make sense.

[moonslav59]

We do have a couple of guys ( Chavis , Hernandez , Hernandez , Dalbec and maybe Duran ) to fill our immediate needs . Developing pitching has been an ongoing problem . No doubt about that . The contracts for Price , Sale and Eovaldi could be a continuing problem .I am not advocating going big for a guy like Cole , just for keeping our top guys in the fold . To me , all this reset talk is nonsense . It is crazy to even think of losing Betts .

 

It's crazy to think we won't have a reset.

 

We have some role players on the farm but nothing that will give us a boost.

[notin]

Who are the "thinking Sox?"

 

Henry?

 

We have no GM.

 

I'm hoping that if we do decide to trade Betts this winter, we make a push at signing him after 2020.

 

If we trade Betts, we might as well trade JBJ, and maybe even ERod, Workman and Barnes. Build up the farm. Keep a core of Bogey, Devers, Beni, Vaz and out of necessity, Sale, Price and E-o.

 

Maybe look to spend again for 2021, but only players that look to have long term impact, or waiting until 2022 might also make sense.

 

Well, the duties are being handled by Romero, Scott and O'Halloran. It's not like they didn't put interim people into the role.

 

The CBS Sports article repeatedly cited Speier and stated the Sox plan to reset within the next 2 seasons.

 

While it certainly doesn't mean Mookie defintely goes elsewhere, I would also think that option is not off the table...

[notin]

It does seem like the best options if a reset is imminent is either 1) reset this year while keeping Betts, and then try to re-sign him after the season, or 2) just trade Betts after this season, and hopefully whatever the Sox get back can help them stay competitive in 2020 and beyond...

[moonslav59]

Well, the duties are being handled by Romero, Scott and O'Halloran. It's not like they didn't put interim people into the role.

 

The CBS Sports article repeatedly cited Speier and stated the Sox plan to reset within the next 2 seasons.

 

While it certainly doesn't mean Mookie defintely goes elsewhere, I would also think that option is not off the table...

 

I agree. I was just wondering who was doing the thinking.

 

Looks like my suggestion that we will reset after 2020 or 2021 is looking correct.

[S5Dewey]

We didn't bounce back from those two straight dismal cellar finishes by restocking the farm . We bounced back by acquiring the top quality players that we needed .

 

We got JBJ in the 2011 draft. He got limited playing time in 2013 and more time starting in 2014

We got Mookie also in the 2011 draft. He started getting playing time in 2014.

 

While there were important additions made to the team prior to 2018 those two were instrumental in winning the WS in 2018 after coming through our farm system.

To follow that track, if we were to finish last in 2021 any outstanding prospects we'd get in the 2022 draft could be ready for the bigs in 2025. Yes, we'd have to sign other probably high priced players for 2026 but we could have solid players on the team who've come through our farm system.

[notin]

We got JBJ in the 2011 draft. He got limited playing time in 2013 and more time starting in 2014

We got Mookie also in the 2011 draft. He started getting playing time in 2014.

 

While there were important additions made to the team prior to 2018 those two were instrumental in winning the WS in 2018 after coming through our farm system.

To follow that track, if we were to finish last in 2021 any outstanding prospects we'd get in the 2022 draft could be ready for the bigs in 2025. Yes, we'd have to sign other probably high priced players for 2026 but we could have solid players on the team who've come through our farm system.

 

Except it gets tough to rely on any team ever drafting like the Sox did in 2011. That was just a great draft. And Bradley certainly took a long time to get going. Had he not been such an offensive no-show to start his career, the Sox might have never moved Betts to the outfield and very possibly never signed Rusney Castillo.

 

But more important, these players were already in the farm for the last place finishes. The Sox have no one currently in their farm that such hopes can be pinned on. Certainly a player or two can make some sort of tremendous leap, but you can't count on it. But if you're counting on the future drafts, these two players took 3 years to debut. As dgalehouse points out, the Sox can't afford to starve while waiting for the farm to produce...

[notin]

I agree. I was just wondering who was doing the thinking.

 

Looks like my suggestion that we will reset after 2020 or 2021 is looking correct.

 

It seems to be such a consensus opinion that it's probably false..

[moonslav59]

Except it gets tough to rely on any team ever drafting like the Sox did in 2011. That was just a great draft. And Bradley certainly took a long time to get going. Had he not been such an offensive no-show to start his career, the Sox might have never moved Betts to the outfield and very possibly never signed Rusney Castillo.

 

But more important, these players were already in the farm for the last place finishes. The Sox have no one currently in their farm that such hopes can be pinned on. Certainly a player or two can make some sort of tremendous leap, but you can't count on it. But if you're counting on the future drafts, these two players took 3 years to debut. As dgalehouse points out, the Sox can't afford to starve while waiting for the farm to produce...

 

Plus, JBJ was a comp pick. We won't be getting those anymore.

 

Other comp picks (Imagine what our teams would be like without these guys):

Ellsbury

Buchholz

Lowrie

D Bard

Hagadone (part of VMart trade)

Ranaudo

Workman

Barnes

Swihart

JBJ

Johnson

Light (traded for Abad)

Kopech (part of Sale trade)

 

Kopech was our last comp pick way back in 2014.

 

[moonslav59]

Plus, JBJ was a comp pick. We won't be getting those anymore.

 

Other comp picks (Imagine what our teams would be like without these guys):

Ellsbury

Buchholz

Lowrie

D Bard

Hagadone (part of VMart trade)

Ranaudo

Workman

Barnes

Swihart

JBJ

Johnson

Light (traded for Abad)

Kopech (part of Sale trade)

 

Kopech was our last comp pick way back in 2014.

 

 

Couple this with the huge drop off from international FA signings, and we can see why our farm is ranked 30th.

[jacksonianmarch]

Couple this with the huge drop off from international FA signings, and we can see why our farm is ranked 30th.

 

Comp picks still exist, but they are rare. And if you are over the lux tax, the comp pick you'd get for a rejected QO player is after the 4th round, not after the 1st. Huge difference. They killed what Theo regularly used to build his teams while being successful

[jacksonianmarch]

Plus, JBJ was a comp pick. We won't be getting those anymore.

 

Other comp picks (Imagine what our teams would be like without these guys):

Ellsbury

Buchholz

Lowrie

D Bard

Hagadone (part of VMart trade)

Ranaudo

Workman

Barnes

Swihart

JBJ

Johnson

Light (traded for Abad)

Kopech (part of Sale trade)

 

Kopech was our last comp pick way back in 2014.

 

 

You also need to realize the sox' hit rate for picks in the 30s was staggeringly high. Ellsbury, Buchholz, Lowrie, Bard, Workman, Barnes, and JBJ have all played all star level ball for at least a season or more at the big league level. Heck, Kopech might be the best of them all. It's insane how good they were at drafting

[moonslav59]

You also need to realize the sox' hit rate for picks in the 30s was staggeringly high. Ellsbury, Buchholz, Lowrie, Bard, Workman, Barnes, and JBJ have all played all star level ball for at least a season or more at the big league level. Heck, Kopech might be the best of them all. It's insane how good they were at drafting

 

That was before draft slot money, when "unsignable" players fell to rich teams in the lower rounds or lower first round.

[notin]

That was before draft slot money, when "unsignable" players fell to rich teams in the lower rounds or lower first round.

 

And smart teams like the Astros and Royals figured out how to game that system...

[moonslav59]

And smart teams like the Astros and Royals figured out how to game that system...

 

By tanking for consecutive years, or do you mean something else?

[notin]

By tanking for consecutive years, or do you mean something else?

 

By taking players in overslot positions and saving their cash for the Unsignables.

 

The Astros took the cheaper of all the likely #1 over all picks in Correa, and saved the money for Lance McCullers, who was a reported tough sign. The Royals grabbed Hunter Dozier early (I think no one even had him as a first rounder), and saved cash that they used to sign the difficult Sean Manea...

[DontCallMeUncleRico]

I would let some other sucker pay what he wants. How much money does a man need? Holding out for every last cent. disgusting. Expecting your true value is understandable to a certain point but you can't tell me a guy can't live off of 200 million dollars. In an era where the greatest qb of all time takes pay cuts, mookie looks wicked greedy.

 

Besides, look at other teams who can win with a low budget. Where's their Golden Ticket 500 million dollar king? Angels and Phillies have one, are they playing in the playoffs? NOPE.

[moonslav59]

I would let some other sucker pay what he wants. How much money does a man need? Holding out for every last cent. disgusting. Expecting your true value is understandable to a certain point but you can't tell me a guy can't live off of 200 million dollars. In an era where the greatest qb of all time takes pay cuts, mookie looks wicked greedy.

 

Besides, look at other teams who can win with a low budget. Where's their Golden Ticket 500 million dollar king? Angels and Phillies have one, are they playing in the playoffs? NOPE.

 

One could argue Henry is greedier than Mookie.

[jacksonianmarch]

I will never ever begrudge a person when they’re trying to find out how much they’re worth. It’s the American way

[jad]

I would let some other sucker pay what he wants. How much money does a man need? Holding out for every last cent. disgusting. Expecting your true value is understandable to a certain point but you can't tell me a guy can't live off of 200 million dollars. In an era where the greatest qb of all time takes pay cuts, mookie looks wicked greedy.

 

Besides, look at other teams who can win with a low budget. Where's their Golden Ticket 500 million dollar king? Angels and Phillies have one, are they playing in the playoffs? NOPE.

 

And when your boss tells you you can live comfortably on 20K less per year than you get now, and therefore you can expect that as a pay cut, exactly how do you react?

[oldtimer]

One could argue Henry is greedier than Mookie.

 

Moon, maybe you could but I find that idea a little nutty. He shelled out for the highest payroll in the ML and you would argue that he is greedy? Doesn't stand up to scrutiny. What I think he wants is a competitive team and his hirelings have let him down although he provided them with a generous payroll to spread around. I hope he gets a GM who has the sense to rebuild this team by resetting this year and moving ahead for 2021. I would think keeping Mookie is a priority, but paying beyond his real worth is foolish and would only lead to more problems down the road. If Mookie would go anywhere to get paid and some owner has very deep pockets, I don't see that we should outbid them. Maybe establishing worth is measured in how many backsides that will put into seats or the like. Whatever the approach, they need to decide and set limits.