A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[jacksonianmarch]

They wanted Beane back in 2003ish. It’s the correction after having DD. Feel like they will load the farm and then use it for another WS run.

 

With the haul the Sox got today, it definitely seems like a tear down and rapid rebuild is on the agenda. Otherwise, if the plan was to contend in 2020, why wouldn’t you get a pitcher?

[mvp 78]

With the haul the Sox got today, it definitely seems like a tear down and rapid rebuild is on the agenda. Otherwise, if the plan was to contend in 2020, why wouldn’t you get a pitcher?

 

They obviously weren’t real contenders. Henry’s spin just made the whole situation a lot dumber.

[moonslav59]

With the haul the Sox got today, it definitely seems like a tear down and rapid rebuild is on the agenda. Otherwise, if the plan was to contend in 2020, why wouldn’t you get a pitcher?

 

Well, they tried to, so the objective might still be to play it both ways by dealing for a SP'er or two, now.

 

I'd prefer we just focus on 2021 and beyond, but I'll still enjoy watching Devers, Bogey, Sale and others, this year.

[moonslav59]

They obviously weren’t real contenders. Henry’s spin just made the whole situation a lot dumber.

 

Everybody knew we were going to reset. It was no secret to any GM.

 

I doubt we get even $1M saved on Prices contract had Henry said the opposite way back when.

 

The minute Bloom calls LA and offers Betts and Price, the cat is out of the bag.

[notin]

With the haul the Sox got today, it definitely seems like a tear down and rapid rebuild is on the agenda. Otherwise, if the plan was to contend in 2020, why wouldn’t you get a pitcher?

 

Like Brusdar Graterol?

[moonslav59]

My guess is, we look for short term bridge players for 2020 without going over the tax line, but more importantly, we try to look look for a bargain or two that will be more useful in 2021 and beyond.

[Larry Cook]

My guess is, we look for short term bridge players for 2020 without going over the tax line, but more importantly, we try to look look for a bargain or two that will be more useful in 2021 and beyond.

 

How about we learn how to consistently develop our homegrown starters?

[moonslav59]

A closer look at who we got:

 

Conner Wong: turns 24 in May. Was promoted to AA, last year and did very well (.997). In just over 1,000 PAs in the minors, he has 48 Hrs and an .852 OPS.

 

Jeter Downs: is 21 and also made it to AA, last year (for a short time 1.116 OPS) He hit 24 HRs, last year in just 460 ABs. (63 XBHs) He laos has 69 SBs in 289 games in the minors.

 

Alex Verdugo: also not yet 24. He's played part of 3 seasons in the bigs, but has only 488 PAs total (.784 OPS, but .817 in 2019 in 377 PAs). Bats lefty. He hit .844 in AAA (874 PAs). He hasn't shown great power, but he seems to be adding a little to his game (12 in 343 ABs in 2019 MLB/ 10 in 343 ABs at AAA in 2018)

 

We lost a great one in Betts, but he only had one year of control left. Price will turn 35 in August. He's averaged about 117 IP the last 3 years, but his 3.75 ERA over that time will be very hard to replace. My guess is we would not have gotten 3.75 from him over the next 3 years, but he might.

 

[moonslav59]

How about we learn how to consistently develop our homegrown starters?

 

I would not hold my breath. An easier way might be to just hire people who have proven they know how to do it. Maybe Bloom has a friend or two he can hire.

[Nick]

Our farm just got a lot better.

 

Our budget, both for 2020 and 2021-2022, got much lighter.

 

Our new GM is known for finding bargain players that over perform.

 

Our core is still solid: Devers, Bogey, Sale and JD (for 1 or 3 more years).

 

Let's just hope we don't get slapped with major draft penalties. I'm much more optimistic about our future, today.

 

 

good post Moon

[moonslav59]

good post Moon

 

Thanks.

 

Maybe losing Betts hasn't really sunk in, yet.

 

My optimism is tinged with sadness and a feeling of great loss.

[jacksonianmarch]

It’s a loss, albeit one you can recover from. This is the price that is paid when you have a guy like DD saddle your team with long term deals, burn you farm to the ground, and essentially break the development machine. You lose generational players

[Bellhorn04]

It’s a loss, albeit one you can recover from. This is the price that is paid when you have a guy like DD saddle your team with long term deals, burn you farm to the ground, and essentially break the development machine. You lose generational players

 

Hyperbole. It's not as simple as that.

 

a) The problem could be that Mookie is looking for more money than is wise for any team to give him.

We're not necessarily eliminated yet from being that team.

[jacksonianmarch]

That’s true, but re-signing Mookie is the kind of thing that re-opens the cliff talk again. Most big contracts make their hay in the first 3-4 years. If the Sox are building a rotation at that time and in the midst of a rebuild, then the first one to two years could be shot with or without Mookie, which is a stupid way to spend your money.

 

My bet is Mookie will not be coming back to Boston. It has nothing to do with the fact that he was traded. It has everything to do with the fact that the Sox hired a guy who’s entire focus prior to coming to Boston has been value based. 12 year deals aren’t value based, they’re iconic, but they don’t provide value

[notin]

That’s true, but re-signing Mookie is the kind of thing that re-opens the cliff talk again. Most big contracts make their hay in the first 3-4 years. If the Sox are building a rotation at that time and in the midst of a rebuild, then the first one to two years could be shot with or without Mookie, which is a stupid way to spend your money.

 

My bet is Mookie will not be coming back to Boston. It has nothing to do with the fact that he was traded. It has everything to do with the fact that the Sox hired a guy who’s entire focus prior to coming to Boston has been value based. 12 year deals aren’t value based, they’re iconic, but they don’t provide value

 

 

He ran Tampa. No idea if he stays the same in Boston.

 

In fact, it’s not likely...

[Bellhorn04]

He ran Tampa. No idea if he stays the same in Boston.

 

In fact, it’s not likely...

 

After this trade, does Friedman look like he's running the LA Rays?

[notin]

After this trade, does Friedman look like he's running the LA Rays?

 

Did Dan Duquette run the Red Sox like he ran the Expos?

[mvp 78]

Did Dan Duquette run the Red Sox like he ran the Expos?

 

Best deal for each team was when he traded for Pedro.

[vegasbob]

How about we learn how to consistently develop our homegrown starters?

 

One of the most significant failures of the past decade or more in terms of MLB results as starting pitchers . The few with good potential are on other teams now. Also this failure to self develop internal pitchers led to some of the excessive spending on FA/trades pitching signings/extensions and the resultant luxury tax issues. A contributing, but not sole factor in moving Mookie Betts.

[moonslav59]

One of the most significant failures of the past decade or more in terms of MLB results as starting pitchers . The few with good potential are on other teams now. Also this failure to self develop internal pitchers led to some of the excessive spending on FA/trades pitching signings/extensions and the resultant luxury tax issues. A contributing, but not sole factor in moving Mookie Betts.

 

Good point.

 

When our team can't develop starting pitchers and we have to pay mega buck for Price, Sale (in trade and dollars) and Eovaldi, it makes it hard to spend large on other positions.

[notin]

One of the most significant failures of the past decade or more in terms of MLB results as starting pitchers . The few with good potential are on other teams now. Also this failure to self develop internal pitchers led to some of the excessive spending on FA/trades pitching signings/extensions and the resultant luxury tax issues. A contributing, but not sole factor in moving Mookie Betts.

 

Absolutely committing $78mill AAV to Eovaldi, Sale and Price has ramifications like this...

[moonslav59]

Absolutely committing $78mill AAV to Eovaldi, Sale and Price has ramifications like this...

 

It might not have been so bad, if they could start 75-80+ games a year, but...

[mvp 78]

Bloom was asked about the rotation tonight. He said “don’t worry, we have time.”

[moonslav59]

Bloom was asked about the rotation tonight. He said “don’t worry, we have time.”

 

Sounds like a man with a plan(s).

[mvp 78]

Or a procrastinator

[moonslav59]

Or a procrastinator

 

He had to wait to be sure Price was dumped and how much he'd have to work with.

[notin]

He had to wait to be sure Price was dumped and how much he'd have to work with.

 

Given what’s left on the market, he doesn’t need that much...

[moonslav59]

Given what’s left on the market, he doesn’t need that much...

 

We could trade for pitchers with contracts not appealing to their current team but are still valuable.

 

We could also still deal JBJ, like I thought was the plan when we tendered him a contract, to free up more money for a pitcher.

 

Maybe some sort of trade like JBJ, Workman and ____ for Familia, Smith and Matz.

 

I'm not sure we have what it takes to get Syndergaard, and his 2 years of team control may not be all that desirable, except to generate excitement and fan interest. (Matz & Familia have only 2 years, too, but Smith is still pre-arb.

[mvp 78]

Given what’s left on the market, he doesn’t need that much...

 

And won’t be getting much.

[moonslav59]

I'm not saying I want these guys, but I have to think it wouldn't take much to get some of them. (We might even get some cash to pay part of some deals listed)

 

KC

Danny Duffy (30) owed $30.75M/2 but just $13M on lux tax line

Ian Kennedy (34) owed $16.5M/1 but $14M on lux tax line

(We could trade JBJ for one or both and still be under the tax.)

 

BAL (Big gamble)

Alex Cobb (32): $29M/2 and $14.25M x 2 on lux

 

NY Mets

Jacob deGrom (31-we don't have the pieces): $128M/4 but just $21.8M x 4 lux

Noah Syndergaard (26): $9.7M + 1 arb

Steven Matz (28): $5M + 1 arb

 

SF (Huge risk)

Johnny Cueto (34) $47M/2 and $21.7M x 2 lux