A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[notin]

You really want to consume Barnes's 3 outs that way?

 

Frankly I don’t get the choice of Weber as the opener, unless the goal is to fall behind 4-0 after the first.

 

Weber is the guy you bring in after the opener and hope to get 2-3 IP out of, hopefully by kickstarting his appearance by having him face the 7-8-9 or 8-9-1 hitters...

[vegasbob]

Yes!!

 

In a traditional reliever role, he is completely worthless on the tail end of back-to-back games, and as he is a late inning pitcher, he occasionally faces bottom-of-the-order hitters.

 

The whole idea of the opener is to use a better reliever in a role where he is ALWAYS facing better hitters in the opposing lineup...

 

Here's a plus, if Barnes opens a game, you still have several innings to overcome his occassional blowups. A walk or wild pitch won't beat him in the first or second inning, and the HR ball is not a killer.

[mvp 78]

The docs are doing their job. Good.

 

CrAcK mEdIcAl StAfF

[mvp 78]

Assuming the LA-Twins trade holds up, and the budget dilemma is off dead center, is there any chance Rusney Castillo could figure into the 2020 Red Sox as he enters the end of his very unproductive contract. He has become such an afterthought , maybe rightfully, but when you look at Moon's possible roster you can see that you better not suffer much downtime in that OF. Maybe Rusney could have a big Spring and be available as a player later . Or he could just disappear come September .

 

It is tempting to say that Brock Holt is worth considering again and could be paid for 2 or 3 years at the $4M level. If MLB talent evaluators/GMs valued him , he should have signed a deal by now. The injury bug and low upside for a mature player probably holds his value way down. He does fill several positions where an opening is likely to develop as the inevitable injury occurs . I would rather have Brock than Lin on the bench.

 

No, Castillo isn't coming up because he's not worth the amount of money he'd be paid towards the lux tax threshold.

[notin]

Assuming the LA-Twins trade holds up, and the budget dilemma is off dead center, is there any chance Rusney Castillo could figure into the 2020 Red Sox as he enters the end of his very unproductive contract. He has become such an afterthought , maybe rightfully, but when you look at Moon's possible roster you can see that you better not suffer much downtime in that OF. Maybe Rusney could have a big Spring and be available as a player later . Or he could just disappear come September .

 

It is tempting to say that Brock Holt is worth considering again and could be paid for 2 or 3 years at the $4M level. If MLB talent evaluators/GMs valued him , he should have signed a deal by now. The injury bug and low upside for a mature player probably holds his value way down. He does fill several positions where an opening is likely to develop as the inevitable injury occurs . I would rather have Brock than Lin on the bench.

 

I’m actually the rarest of the rare - a Rusney Castillo fan. But no, it’s Pawtucket. The Red Sox absolutely do need a fourth outfielder (and have yet to sign Notin recommendation and potential gem Cesar Puello), but I doubt it’s Rusney, strictly for financial reasons.

 

I’d take Lin over Holt. Same logic, plus Lin is good. I think he’s a better defender than Holt. And Holt might be slightly more versatile, but on a roster with Lin, Peraza and Chavis, this might not matter as much...

[mvp 78]

Frankly I don’t get the choice of Weber as the opener, unless the goal is to fall behind 4-0 after the first.

 

Weber is the guy you bring in after the opener and hope to get 2-3 IP out of, hopefully by kickstarting his appearance by having him face the 7-8-9 or 8-9-1 hitters...

 

Why else are they holding onto him then? Does he have a good spin rate or something? There is nothing about his stuff that pops out to me. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ryan-weber/10160/stats?position=P#pitchvalues

[notin]

No, Castillo isn't coming up because he's not worth the amount of money he'd be paid towards the lux tax threshold.

 

Financially, the only savings the Sox have would be on his actual luxury tax payments, which right now would be $0. But Castillo would take up valuable financial headroom, and he has yet to do anything on a baseball field to show that is the right move...

[Bellhorn04]

Financially, the only savings the Sox have would be on his actual luxury tax payments, which right now would be $0. But Castillo would take up valuable financial headroom, and he has yet to do anything on a baseball field to show that is the right move...

 

They're grooming him for 2021.

[notin]

Why else are they holding onto him then? Does he have a good spin rate or something? There is nothing about his stuff that pops out to me. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ryan-weber/10160/stats?position=P#pitchvalues

 

I’ve only made about 50 or 60 posts on the subject.

 

Personal theory - Ryan has some seriously dark stuff on Bloom from their days together in Tampa...

[mvp 78]

Financially, the only savings the Sox have would be on his actual luxury tax payments, which right now would be $0. But Castillo would take up valuable financial headroom, and he has yet to do anything on a baseball field to show that is the right move...

 

If you bring up Castillo it precludes you from bringing in other players that could potentially push you over the threshold again.

[notin]

They're grooming him for 2021.

 

When he will be set free?

[Bellhorn04]

Yes!!

 

In a traditional reliever role, he is completely worthless on the tail end of back-to-back games, and as he is a late inning pitcher, he occasionally faces bottom-of-the-order hitters.

 

The whole idea of the opener is to use a better reliever in a role where he is ALWAYS facing better hitters in the opposing lineup...

 

Well, the Rays certainly showed how it's done. I guess I should review their game logs.

[mvp 78]

I’ve only made about 50 or 60 posts on the subject.

 

Personal theory - Ryan has some seriously dark stuff on Bloom from their days together in Tampa...

 

I mean, people were upset that he was kept over Lakins, but then Lakins was waived by the Cubs anyway. Maybe the roster spots of 35-40 are really just Weber bad?

[notin]

If you bring up Castillo it precludes you from bringing in other players that could potentially push you over the threshold again.

 

Yes. He would cut into their financial headroom, as I said.

[Bellhorn04]

When he will be set free?

 

You're the roster guy. Do we control him next year?

[mvp 78]

Yes. He would cut into their financial headroom, as I said.

 

Yes, it is what I also said in my first post as well.

[notin]

I mean, people were upset that he was kept over Lakins, but then Lakins was waived by the Cubs anyway. Maybe the roster spots of 35-40 are really just Weber bad?

 

True. But at some point, probability tells you the 25yo guy has a better chance to improve than the 30yo guy.

 

I’ve just never seen in Weber what Bloom apparently sees. Maybe they’re in love?

[notin]

You're the roster guy. Do we control him next year?

 

If by “we”, you mean you and me, then no.

 

However, if by “we”, you mean “the Boston Red Sox,” also no.

 

But if you think we (meaning you and me) should sign him, count me in...

[mvp 78]

True. But at some point, probability tells you the 25yo guy has a better chance to improve than the 30yo guy.

 

I’ve just never seen in Weber what Bloom apparently sees. Maybe they’re in love?

 

If they are in love, I'm happy for them.

[moonslav59]

Webber is the opener IMO.

 

I almost put him there, but I like starting with a lefty, since our pen is so lop-sided righty.

[harmony]

The revision looks like another player going to Boston and not the complete dissolution of the deal. Whether that player replaces Graterol or is in addition is not known yet...

What if righthander Jordan Balazovic replaces Brusdar Graterol in the deal?

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=balazo000jor

 

Balazovic, who is three weeks younger than Graterol, lacks the latter's MLB-readiness but is similarly ranked at MLB Pipeline:

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2020?list=prospects

[Slasher9]

You're the roster guy. Do we control him next year?

 

i believe we do. he's not a FA until 2026.

we can have him in the OF next year at league minimum.

[moonslav59]

What if righthander Jordan Balazovic replaces Brusdar Graterol in the deal?

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=balazo000jor

 

Balazovic, who is three weeks younger than Graterol, lacks the latter's MLB-readiness but is similarly ranked at MLB Pipeline:

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2020?list=prospects

 

Could be the guy.

[mvp 78]

I almost put him there, but I like starting with a lefty, since our pen is so lop-sided righty.

 

Hasn't the concern been that Bloom is loading up on lefty relievers this offseason?

[moonslav59]

Need a starter?

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/02/4-interesting-buy-low-starters.html

[mvp 78]

i believe we do. he's not a FA until 2026.

we can have him in the OF next year at league minimum.

 

UFA in 2025 per Sportrac.

[mvp 78]

Need a starter?

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/02/4-interesting-buy-low-starters.html

 

Walker probably wouldn't contribute until after ASB.

[oldtimer]

Assuming no more acquisitions and total good health (except Pedey), here's my projected opening day 26 man roster:

 

4 SP: Sale, ERod, Eovaldi, Perez

1 Opener: D Hernandez

8 RP: Workman, Barnes, Taylor, Walden, Graterol, Hembree, Brice, Brasier

 

2 C: Vazquez, Plawecki

1 1B: Moreland

2 2B: Peraza, Chavis

1 3B: Devers

1 SS: Bogaerts

2 IF: Lin, Arauz (Rule 5)

1 LF: Benintendi

1 CF: Bradley

1 RF: Verdugo

1 DH: Martinez

 

Should see ML time at some point:

P: Velazquez, Brewer, Osich, Poyner, Shawaryn, Hart, Houck (Johnson not on 40)

IF: Dalbec, M Hernandez, Chatham

OF: Longhi, Sturgeon(Castillo?)

 

 

 

I assume there will be acquisitions and possible changes due to the trade uncertainty. Wait a couple of weeks as we may well find another starter or reliever along the way.

[notin]

i believe we do. he's not a FA until 2026.

we can have him in the OF next year at league minimum.

 

His limited service time has pushed his arbitration and free agency dates back, but his contract actually expires after this season. Even if the Sox control his rights, he will be a 33yo with 330 career plate appearances. At best, he’s 4th outfielder bench fodder. But I could see simply releasing him.

 

Unless the Sox do something completely bizarre and extend him this off-season for more money but a (much) lower AAV. Like a 4 year $24 mill extension...

[Slasher9]

His limited service time has pushed his arbitration and free agency dates back, but his contract actually expires after this season. Even if the Sox control his rights, he will be a 33yo with 330 career plate appearances. At best, he’s 4th outfielder bench fodder. But I could see simply releasing him.

 

Unless the Sox do something completely bizarre and extend him this off-season for more money but a (much) lower AAV. Like a 4 year $24 mill extension...

 

we have his rights. he's not even arb eligible until 2023. he can be on the roster next year for league minimum. or he could choose to retire.