A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[mvp 78]

I'm feeling pretty pessimistic about the 2020 team's chances myself.

 

Especially if they trade Betts and Price, which seems fairly likely.

 

I understand. Everyone is allowed to feel how they feel. I’m trying to not get too down about it until the games actually start.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not really down. But let's face it, if they trade Betts and Price, they're not all in for this year. It will confirm that 2020 is all about the tax re-set.

[moonslav59]

They won 108 games in 2018 with a very similar roster.

 

No, it was not "very" similar.

 

We are missing 4 of our top 9 pitchers by IP from 2018 (Porcello #1, Pom #7, Kelly #8 & Kimbrell #9), and 2 others (Johnson #5 & Velazquez #6) will not make the opening day roster and may not pitch at all for the Sox, this year. Also, no Wright #13 with a 2.68 ERA in 54 IP.

 

We are missing 7 of our top 15 batters by PAs (all over 140 PAs).

 

We are missing the manager.

 

Yes, we have some big stars remaining from that team, and guys like ERod, Devers and Vaz can legitimately be projected to have way better seasons than 2018, but questions and declines from 2018, based on age or health concerns, can and probably should be expected from most of the others.

(listed by most 2018 PAs or IP)

1. Beni .830 OPS

2. JD 1.031

3. Betts 1.078

4. Bogey .883 (could very well do better)

5. JBJ .717 (???)

8. Moreland .758

 

By IP

2. Price 3.58 (176 IP in 2018)

3. Sale 2.11(158)

5. Johnson 4.17 (Not even on 40 man roster)

6. Velazquez 3.18 (Pipe dream to repeat)

10. Barnes 3.65 (62 IP)

11. Hembree 4.20 (60)

12. Eovaldi 3.33 (54 & playoff hero)

14. Workman 3.27 (41) Expected to do better than 2018

15. Brasier 1.60 (34)

 

This is a vastly different team with way less depth and no current manager.

 

[notin]

My point is that people are quick to remember 2019 failures, but even quicker to forget 2018 successes.

 

Will they all evert to 2018 form? Probably not, but I won’t rule it out.

 

I don’t think the lineup matter much on 2018 vs 2019. In fact, the 2019 Red Sox outscored the 2018 team 901 to 876.

 

Even if you took Betts off that team, it’s still a good lineup.

 

The rotation, OTOH, has a bit much going on with injuries, ineffectiveness, and a complete lack of depth. The bullpen has some good pitchers, but could use improvement as well. Especially since having no starter depth exploded their workload...

[moonslav59]

I think the issue is that the starting pitching outlook seems much worse. The only pitcher who took a step in the right direction was E-Rod.

 

Pessimism abounds about the health of Sale, Price and Eovaldi. (Price may be gone of course.)

 

Johnson and Velazquez turned into rotten pumpkins etc.

 

Missing the 2018 Kelly & Kimbrel makes the pen look much worse, as well.

 

Missing Holt, Nunez, Kinsler, Pearce and others make our depth and flexibility look worse.

 

Having no manager is worse than what Cora did for the 2018 team.

 

Where are we better or even equal?

[Bellhorn04]

Missing the 2018 Kelly & Kimbrel makes the pen look much worse, as well.

 

Missing Holt, Nunez, Kinsler, Pearce and others make our depth and flexibility look worse.

 

Having no manager is worse than what Cora did for the 2018 team.

 

Where are we better or even equal?

 

Well, we will have a manager, presumably.

 

This discussion is kind of moot until we know if Betts and Price are gone anyway. That'll seal the deal.

[notin]

Missing the 2018 Kelly & Kimbrel makes the pen look much worse, as well.

 

Missing Holt, Nunez, Kinsler, Pearce and others make our depth and flexibility look worse.

 

Having no manager is worse than what Cora did for the 2018 team.

 

Where are we better or even equal?

 

The Sox biggest need is MLB-ready arms. Even bullpen arms. Barnes was very good unless he pitched consecutive days, then he was a Little League BP hurler. He can’t be the “go to” guy again if he can’t pitch 2 days in a row...

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox biggest need is MLB-ready arms. Even bullpen arms. Barnes was very good unless he pitched consecutive days, then he was a Little League BP hurler. He can’t be the “go to” guy again if he can’t pitch 2 days in a row...

 

We're not spending a dime on the bullpen, for the second year in a row. That's almost funny.

[notin]

The Sox biggest need is MLB-ready arms. Even bullpen arms. Barnes was very good unless he pitched consecutive days, then he was a Little League BP hurler. He can’t be the “go to” guy again if he can’t pitch 2 days in a row...

 

Holt, Nunez, Pearce and Kinsler have been replaced by Chavis, Lin, Peraza and another TBD (or Arauz if he hangs on). The Sox will have some bench flexibility this year...

[notin]

We're not spending a dime on the bullpen, for the second year in a row. That's almost funny.

 

 

The Sox have only spent about $10mill this entire offseason, which shows us that the spending is limited. Bloom has added a few nondescript arms like Hall, Springs, Mazda, and Brice. I’d like to see an MLB arm or two get in there as well.

 

Also, this team should DFA every player named Ryan...

[moonslav59]

I don’t think the lineup matter much on 2018 vs 2019. In fact, the 2019 Red Sox outscored the 2018 team 901 to 876.

 

Even if you took Betts off that team, it’s still a good lineup.

 

The rotation, OTOH, has a bit much going on with injuries, ineffectiveness, and a complete lack of depth. The bullpen has some good pitchers, but could use improvement as well. Especially since having no starter depth exploded their workload...

 

Comparing runs scored between 2018 and 2019 needs some context. The whole league went on a Home Run rampage- except us, although we did have more.

 

HRs per team

186.2 in 2018

225.9 in 2019 (21.3% increase)

(Sox went up at a 17.8% increase.)

 

Runs per team

721.0 in 2018

782.2 in 2019 (8.5% increase)

 

Sox Runs: 876 to 901 is a 2.3% increase.

 

We failed to keep pace with the league increase in runs from 2018 to 2019.

 

That's not to say our offense is bad or will be in 2020. I expect it to be top 4 or 5, as is, but we were 4th in the AL, last year and still finished way out of the race. We were first in 2018.

 

9 of the top 11 teams in runs scored from 2018-2019 were 2019 teams.

 

 

Edited February 2, 2020 by moonslav59

[notin]

We're not spending a dime on the bullpen, for the second year in a row. That's almost funny.

 

So with all the questionable pitchers on this team and the actual depth in the lineup, to me, nothing screams WHITE FLAG for the 2020 season than keeping Betts. And not only for 2020, but possibly 2021 and 2022 as well.

 

This team has needs and can afford to part with a hitter. Trading the most expensive one to fill some holes with quality and reset the finances makes the most sense long and short term...

[Kimmi]

Yeah, they just stuck with Mitch for familiarity.

 

I am very pleased that Mitch was re-signed.

 

Great clubhouse guy and veteran presence. He's good for Devers.

[notin]

Comparing runs scored between 2018 and 2019 needs some context. The whole league went on a Home Run rampage- except us, although we did have more.

 

HRs per team

186.2 in 2018

225.9 in 2019 (21.3% increase)

(Sox went up at a 17.8% increase.)

 

Runs per team

721.0 in 2018

782.2 in 2019 (8.5% increase)

 

Sox Runs: 876 to 901 is a 2.3% increase.

 

We failed to keep pace with the league increase in runs from 2018 to 2019.

 

That's not to say our offense is bad or will be in 2020. I expect it to be top 4 or 5, as is, but we were 4th in the AL, last year and still finished way out of the race. We were first in 2018.

 

9 of the top 11 teams in runs scored from 2018-2019 were 2019 teams.

 

 

 

This is true.

 

But if the Manfred Missile is back, developing hitters just got a lot easier and this only furthers my point that pitching is where the Sox need help...

[Bellhorn04]

So with all the questionable pitchers on this team and the actual depth in the lineup, to me, nothing screams WHITE FLAG for the 2020 season than keeping Betts. And not only for 2020, but possibly 2021 and 2022 as well.

 

This team has needs and can afford to part with a hitter. Trading the most expensive one to fill some holes with quality and reset the finances makes the most sense long and short term...

 

They're trying to trade Price too, of course.

[moonslav59]

Well, we will have a manager, presumably.

 

This discussion is kind of moot until we know if Betts and Price are gone anyway. That'll seal the deal.

 

We are talking about why we should trade Betts and Price, and your argument was that we are "very similar" to the 2018 team and should go for one last hurrah at the expense of the extended future.

 

We are NOT that close to the 2018 team and even got worse from the 2019 team.

 

These are part of the reasons supporting trading some players.

 

Of course, we should be worse in 2020 without Betts and Price (and maybe others), but the diea is to get ourselves better positioned for 2021 and beyond.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yes, but an assumption does not mean I am projecting no deals or injuries. It was only an exercise in showing where we stand, right now.

 

And, it doesn't look all that good, does it?.

 

It doesn't look all that bad. I mean, your entire starting lineup won the World Series two years ago except for the second baseman (I know there are key bench pieces missing, like Leon, Kinsler, and MVP Pearce -- who replaced Ramirez, the Opening Day #3 batter).

 

It's also 4/5ths of the same rotation -- I know, big IFs, but who honestly thought going into '19 that the starters wouldn't be a strength? Price and Eovaldi were both coming off the best clutch pitching in their careers, and expectations were they had figured it out and would continue to build and contribute. Sale was the most questionable, and even he had blown away the last three batters of the Series. Porcello took a step back and ERod a step forward; those are normal year-to-year developments... but lengthy injuries to a team's top three starters are not.

 

Yes, we're still missing an established closer like Kimbrel, but Workman's '19 WAR of 3.2 was better than Kimbrel's '18 of 2.3. It may be unreasonable to expect Workman to repeat a career year, but he has to be better than Kimbrel's '19 WAR of -0.5.

 

Some fans are down on Peraza but he's still 25 so let's give him a chance for a bounceback. He may not be Alomar, but he's not Nunez, either; Peraza had a 2.3 WAR in '18; Nunez was -1.1 in '18.

 

As moon, notin and others have pointed out, a big problem last season -- and I agree a big concern right now -- was/is pitching depth and a reliable bench... underrated components of a winner, the #20-30 roster guys. Who can forget Pokey, Mientkiewicz, Roberts and Pesky's "Leskanic, you sonabitch!" Now please help me forget Owings, Gorkys and Cashner.

 

Bloom hasn't altered the core, but made a lot of alterations to change the extra seats in the dugout and bullpen. Maybe that's the plan.

[moonslav59]

We're not spending a dime on the bullpen, for the second year in a row. That's almost funny.

 

That's some sick humor!

 

Many felt our pen actually over performed their expectations in 2018 and 2019.

 

We are mainly pinning our 2020 hopes on a return to form of Barnes, a rebound from Hembree and Brasier and continued career year-like seasons from Workman, Taylor & Walden. Or, maybe D Hern gains some control or someone like Houk pulls a Buttrey.

[moonslav59]

Holt, Nunez, Pearce and Kinsler have been replaced by Chavis, Lin, Peraza and another TBD (or Arauz if he hangs on). The Sox will have some bench flexibility this year...

 

I'll take the former, especially how they played in 2018. It's not even close, IMO.

[Kimmi]

I'm feeling pretty pessimistic about the 2020 team's chances myself.

 

Especially if they trade Betts and Price, which seems fairly likely.

 

And this is why I returned. You need a little jolt of optimism in your Red Sox forecast.

 

IMO, at least 2 of Sale, Price, and Eovaldi will have better seasons than they did last year, if not all of them. I'm not saying that they will return to prime form, but they will be good. Our offense, with or without Mookie will be good. I don't get the pessimism behind the upcoming season. If I'm not mistaken, we are currently have the 4th best ZIPS projection, though granted, we are 2nd in our own division.

[Kimmi]

I'm not really down. But let's face it, if they trade Betts and Price, they're not all in for this year. It will confirm that 2020 is all about the tax re-set.

 

I think including Price in any trade as a salary dump would be a mistake.

[Kimmi]

We're not spending a dime on the bullpen, for the second year in a row. That's almost funny.

 

Which is exactly the way it should be.

[moonslav59]

It doesn't look all that bad. I mean, your entire starting lineup won the World Series two years ago except for the second baseman (I know there are key bench pieces missing, like Leon, Kinsler, and MVP Pearce -- who replaced Ramirez, the Opening Day #3 batter).

 

It's also 4/5ths of the same rotation -- I know, big IFs, but who honestly thought going into '19 that the starters wouldn't be a strength? Price and Eovaldi were both coming off the best clutch pitching in their careers, and expectations were they had figured it out and would continue to build and contribute. Sale was the most questionable, and even he had blown away the last three batters of the Series. Porcello took a step back and ERod a step forward; those are normal year-to-year developments... but lengthy injuries to a team's top three starters are not.

 

Yes, we're still missing an established closer like Kimbrel, but Workman's '19 WAR of 3.2 was better than Kimbrel's '18 of 2.3. It may be unreasonable to expect Workman to repeat a career year, but he has to be better than Kimbrel's '19 WAR of -0.5.

 

Some fans are down on Peraza but he's still 25 so let's give him a chance for a bounceback. He may not be Alomar, but he's not Nunez, either; Peraza had a 2.3 WAR in '18; Nunez was -1.1 in '18.

 

As moon, notin and others have pointed out, a big problem last season -- and I agree a big concern right now -- was/is pitching depth and a reliable bench... underrated components of a winner, the #20-30 roster guys. Who can forget Pokey, Mientkiewicz, Roberts and Pesky's "Leskanic, you sonabitch!" Now please help me forget Owings, Gorkys and Cashner.

 

Bloom hasn't altered the core, but made a lot of alterations to change the extra seats in the dugout and bullpen. Maybe that's the plan.

 

There is no reason to expect healthy seasons from Sale,Price and Eovaldi.

 

Yes, we lost 1/5th of our rotation (Porcello), but much more than 1/5th of the IP from our top 5 SP'ers.

 

2019 IP as a SP'er (team; 806)

203 ERod

174 Porcello (22% of SP'er IP/ 25% of top 5 SP'er IP)

147 Sale

107 Price

54 Eovaldi

(We really lost 1/4th of our rotation with Porcello leaving.)

 

2018 (871 total)

191 Porcello (22% of SP'er IP/ 27% of top 5 SP'er IP)

176 Price

158 Sale

123 ERod

50 Eovaldi

 

Expecting healthy seasons from even 2 of our 3 questionable SP'ers is a stretch. Expecting repeat seasons from Workman, Taylor and Walden may be an even bigger stretch. We have no significant incoming support for 2 years in a row, and please don't count 2 weeks from Chavis in 2019 as a boost to our 2020 outlook.

[moonslav59]

I think including Price in any trade as a salary dump would be a mistake.

 

So, if he was a FA, you'd be okay with us signing him to $96M/3?

[Kimmi]

So, if he was a FA, you'd be okay with us signing him to $96M/3?

 

No, I wouldn't be. I was strongly against signing him to that contract in the first place.

 

That said, I am looking to compete in 2020. Our biggest area of concern is starting pitching. Price is a darn good pitcher, when healthy. Trading him obviously weakens our already biggest weakness. Unless there is a very good, cost-controlled starting pitcher coming back to us that I am unaware of, we need Price to contend.

[moonslav59]

No, I wouldn't be. I was strongly against signing him to that contract in the first place.

 

That said, I am looking to compete in 2020. Our biggest area of concern is starting pitching. Price is a darn good pitcher, when healthy. Trading him obviously weakens our already biggest weakness. Unless there is a very good, cost-controlled starting pitcher coming back to us that I am unaware of, we need Price to contend.

 

He is likely to help more than hurt in 2020, but his contract is killing us for 3 more years.

 

If I wouldn't sign him for $32M x 3, then it makes sense to trade him for a bag of balls.

 

His net value is negative. There isn't much on the market to sign and replace him with, but getting rid of that contract would improve our long term outlook by allowing us to make more of the types of moves you, Bloom and I like.

[oldtimer]

He is likely to help more than hurt in 2020, but his contract is killing us for 3 more years.

 

If I wouldn't sign him for $32M x 3, then it makes sense to trade him for a bag of balls.

 

His net value is negative. There isn't much on the market to sign and replace him with, but getting rid of that contract would improve our long term outlook by allowing us to make more of the types of moves you, Bloom and I like.

 

I am okay with trading Mookie for a couple of quality major league ready prospects. It does make us weaker in 2020 and I find it hard to see the vaalue of then resigning him in 2021 if the contract is something in the order of $35mil x 10. With a weakened team and with suspect starting pitching (health wise) we may be somewhat competitive, but I doubt strong enough to take down the Yankees and possibly not even compe3titive with the Rays or even the Blue Jays, who have good young talent. That's why I would agree to say goodbye to Price and the bloated $96 Mil left on his very questionable long term contract. Setting up for key improvements in 2021 is the most rational approach in my book.

 

Glad to see Kimi back posting. I mostly agree with her posts but not this time.

[Bellhorn04]

We are talking about why we should trade Betts and Price, and your argument was that we are "very similar" to the 2018 team and should go for one last hurrah at the expense of the extended future.

 

I didn't say that. mvp said we were similar to 2018.

[notin]

No, I wouldn't be. I was strongly against signing him to that contract in the first place.

 

That said, I am looking to compete in 2020. Our biggest area of concern is starting pitching. Price is a darn good pitcher, when healthy. Trading him obviously weakens our already biggest weakness. Unless there is a very good, cost-controlled starting pitcher coming back to us that I am unaware of, we need Price to contend.

 

 

Ah but what if trading Price freed up the roster spot and resources to sign Clay Buchholz?

 

I know your weaknesses

[moonslav59]

I didn't say that. mvp said we were similar to 2018.

 

Sorry. My bad.