A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[mvp 78]

Or took Price or Eovaldi?

 

Sure, but seems like the Padres have a tight checkbook.

[moonslav59]

It seems very strange the Padres would seek a one year star like Betts. I can see why they'd trade Myers for him, but they are acting like Betts is a salary dump like Myers is.

 

Maybe, they think Betts will like SoCal so much, he'll re-sign with them.

 

If they took Eovaldi with Betts, it would balance the money better than just handing us $20-25M.

 

I still think the Dodgers are the best match.

 

[moonslav59]

Non roster invitees to ST:

 

Durran

Mata

Houk

Baldwin

Castillo

Marco

Joseph

Ockimey chance at 1b platoon?

Hildenberger

Brian Johnson

Poyner

McGrath

 

Ockimey has great splits vs LHPs, despite the high K rate, but it's hard to know if that would carry over to the bigs.

 

Best odds at breaking camp with the big team?

 

Marco

Johnson

Poyner

Houck

Ockimey

 

In that order.

 

We'd have to DFA someone or 60 day IL a player to add one (back) to the 40 man.

[notin]

Sure, but seems like the Padres have a tight checkbook.

 

Eric Hosmer’s agent pried it open...

[mvp 78]

Eric Hosmer’s agent pried it open...

 

Machado used a crowbar.

[mvp 78]

In 2019, Padres had the 4th lowest payroll. With Machado's salary bumping up by $18M and about $27M for Betts (plus some salary relief for Myers), they'd be closer to middle of the pack. They were 14th in attendance last year. They get about $50M in local tv $$$ (sounds like a lot, but other teams are really getting much more like the Rays @ $82M).

 

Can they afford Betts and eating some of Myers' salary? IDK. The vast majority of their team are on very cheap contracts. Maybe they can have a few high paid guys and just fill in the rest of the roster with their strong farm?

[Station 13]

Machado used a crowbar.

 

he whack Pedroia with it. f***ing ******* took a page from Tonya Harding memoirs.

Edited January 24, 2020 by Station 13

[mvp 78]

he whack Pedroia with it. f***ing ******* took a page from Tonya Harding memoirs.

 

Whhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy... Whhhhhhhhhhhhhhhyyyyyyy...

[Station 13]

Myers deal is back loaded, $21M remaining each of the last 3 year. Who the hell would want that? Padres wouldn't be able to get back a bag of balls for him.

[notin]

It seems very strange the Padres would seek a one year star like Betts. I can see why they'd trade Myers for him, but they are acting like Betts is a salary dump like Myers is.

 

Maybe, they think Betts will like SoCal so much, he'll re-sign with them.

 

If they took Eovaldi with Betts, it would balance the money better than just handing us $20-25M.

 

I still think the Dodgers are the best match.

 

 

The Padres are the better match.

 

The Dodgers have shown they own the NL West for the past 7 seasons. They’ve lost 2 of the last 3 World Series to teams currently embroiled in sign-stealing scandals. They did all this without Betts.

 

The Padres, on the other hand, have given out a few mega contracts and spent money, but gotten nowhere. Their upper management has basically demanded Oreller improve the team or find another organization. While he will probably have another job within minutes, he still has some motivation to not get fired. He’s under actual pressure to improve a team, not maintain the status quo or “get over the hump.” Having a stacked farm also helps.

[Jack Flap]

So the trade simulator accepted a trade of Betts and Chavis to SD for Myers and Tatis (the Padres actually come out on top by 2.2 there)...that's how much of a negative Myers' contract is.

 

The Padres' reported desire to unload most or all of Myers' money on us is understandable...their desire not to give up their best prospects for one year of Betts is also understandable...but expecting to do both is ludicrous.

 

Guys like Campusano and Lucchesi ought to be in play for us without involving Myers at all. If we're taking Myers, I'd want Gore as a starting point, plus other significant pieces...otherwise SD can pound sand.

[notin]

Betts for Myers, Gore and Grisham. No money changes hands...

[Bellhorn04]

Myers deal is back loaded, $21M remaining each of the last 3 year. Who the hell would want that? Padres wouldn't be able to get back a bag of balls for him.

 

The only good thing is that the AAV for tax purposes is a lot less than that.

[moonslav59]

The Padres are the better match.

 

The Dodgers have shown they own the NL West for the past 7 seasons. They’ve lost 2 of the last 3 World Series to teams currently embroiled in sign-stealing scandals. They did all this without Betts.

 

The Padres, on the other hand, have given out a few mega contracts and spent money, but gotten nowhere. Their upper management has basically demanded Oreller improve the team or find another organization. While he will probably have another job within minutes, he still has some motivation to not get fired. He’s under actual pressure to improve a team, not maintain the status quo or “get over the hump.” Having a stacked farm also helps.

 

The Dodgers need to get over the hump and finally win it all. This looks like the year with the best chance as the Sox and Astros have declined.

 

The Padres are not at a "win now" place. They need more than Betts for that.

[moonslav59]

The only good thing is that the AAV for tax purposes is a lot less than that.

 

Yes, it's $13.833 x 3 years. That's what makes trading for him enticing. The Padres save some money, and we avoid taxes.

 

We also need a 1Bman and 4th OF'er.

 

The rest of the package is the issue.

[mvp 78]

Prospective trade:

 

Grisham

Trent Grisham also displayed an elite skill in the minors: plate discipline. He too was subject to some swing and approach changes during his time as a prospect, and he struggled. At times he could be described as passive rather than selective, but things seemed to click in 2019 as he retained that feel for the strike zone while also finally hitting for some power. Kiley and I 50 FV’d Grisham last summer, and we think he’s a solid, everyday player. He has less ceiling than Urías, but more certainty now that his swing is dialed in.

Croneworth (just came out of the Rays system)

Cronenworth, the second part of the Padres’ return, bears more explanation. He’s a 25-year old shortstop with enough glove to stick there, with the arm and fielding motions to handle any position across the infield in at least a utility role. His real appeal is with the bat, where he took a huge step forward in 2019. The International League notably switched to major league baseballs last year, and Cronenworth took advantage. He hit .334/.429/.520, walking 12% of the time while only striking out 15.3%, on the way to arguably his best offensive season at the highest level of competition he’s ever faced. His 10 home runs more than doubled his previous single-season total, and his exit velocity numbers would look at home in the majors; an 89 mph average, with 39% of his contact 95 mph or higher. If this newfound power is going to stick, it will likely come with a lower BABIP and more fly balls — his 1.72 GB/FB ratio limits the amount of damage he can do in the air. Even if he doesn’t hold all of his power gains, the bat control and plate approach give him a nice floor, and he fields and runs enough to make the total package work.

Campusano

Automatically becomes Sox best C prospect, has a little pop. No fangraphs write up.

one of either Quantrill, Luchessi or Michael Baez

I'd take Luchessi because he has a higher floor than Quantril or Baez. I do like Quantril though. If they offered Quantril and Luchessi, I'd eat more of Myers' salary as long as they can still get under the tax cap.

[mvp 78]

Betts for Myers, Gore and Grisham. No money changes hands...

 

Gore is untouchable.

[mvp 78]

At the end of the day, Mookie for Myers, Grisham, Croneworth and Luchessi is far better than just losing Mookie to FA. I'd still like to get another prospect thrown in there.

[mvp 78]

So the trade simulator accepted a trade of Betts and Chavis to SD for Myers and Tatis (the Padres actually come out on top by 2.2 there)...that's how much of a negative Myers' contract is.

 

The Padres' reported desire to unload most or all of Myers' money on us is understandable...their desire not to give up their best prospects for one year of Betts is also understandable...but expecting to do both is ludicrous.

 

Guys like Campusano and Lucchesi ought to be in play for us without involving Myers at all. If we're taking Myers, I'd want Gore as a starting point, plus other significant pieces...otherwise SD can pound sand.

 

They aren't trading Tatis.

[a700hitter]

They aren't trading Tatis.

Not for 1 year of Betts. No one is going to give us their top building blocks for Betts.

[Jack Flap]

They aren't trading Tatis.

 

I know that...the point was to show just how much negative value Myers' contract carries with it.

[moonslav59]

Gore is untouchable.

 

The real question is about Patino.

[mvp 78]

The real question is about Patino.

 

Seems like a good makeup guy.

 

Not long ago, Patiño was an undersized Colombian shortstop who would pitch once in a while. The Padres liked his athleticism enough to sign him and move him to the mound full-time. He’s added a full 10 ticks to his fastball over the last two and a half years, and now is not only one of the best on-mound athletes in the minors, but a hard worker and team leader with infectious charisma. Patiño’s velocity came as he got in the weight room and added about 25 pounds. He was so dominant during his first few pro starts in the DSL that the Padres quickly pushed him stateside for the remainder of 2017, then to the Midwest League at age 18 the following year.

 

Not only does Patiño have premium arm strength, he has natural feel for spin, and is a curious learner who quickly actualizes instruction on the mound. He has already begun to vary the cadence of his delivery to mess with hitters’ timing, and has mapped aspects of MacKenzie Gore’s delivery onto his own, just to see if it works for him. He’s still a little too confident with his breaking ball in the zone, but it’s hard not to expect an athlete with work habits like these (Patiño has already learned and is fluent in English) to get better at everything. You can go nuts projecting on his secondaries and command the same way scouts did with Hunter Greene when he was in high school, and Patiño’s breaking stuff is further along than Greene’s was at the same age. He likely won’t grow into more velo because the frame for that isn’t here, but he’s already got plenty of heat. Conservatively, Patiño has mid-rotation upside, but how the changeup and breaking ball command develop matter because that’s where there’s room for significant growth.

[moonslav59]

What if we threw some prospects into the deal plus Workman (FA after 2020)?

 

Betts, Eovaldi, Workman, Chavis, Duran

 

for

 

Myers, Grisham, Naylor, Patino, Morejon & Weathers

 

(The simulator accepted this.)

[moonslav59]

No Eovaldi of Price?

 

I'm not for this, but it was accepted...

 

Betts, Workman, Chavis & Duran

 

for

 

Myers, Lucchesi, Grisham, Patino, Campusano & Marcano

 

[mvp 78]

What if we threw some prospects into the deal plus Workman (FA after 2020)?

 

Betts, Eovaldi, Workman, Chavis, Duran

 

for

 

Myers, Grisham, Naylor, Patino, Morejon & Weathers

 

(The simulator accepted this.)

 

I think that's getting a little too far from what either side is comfortable with. It's not often that you see 10 person trades.

[moonslav59]

I think that's getting a little too far from what either side is comfortable with. It's not often that you see 10 person trades.

 

Agreed, but if SD is going for a 2020 win, having Workman and Chavis helps. Duran eases fear of what happens after Betts bolts. Eovaldi instead of cash could help them.

[notin]

What if we threw some prospects into the deal plus Workman (FA after 2020)?

 

Betts, Eovaldi, Workman, Chavis, Duran

 

for

 

Myers, Grisham, Naylor, Patino, Morejon & Weathers

 

(The simulator accepted this.)

 

Morejon's stock seems to be falling faster than a 90's dot com...

[mvp 78]

Morejon's stock seems to be falling faster than a 90's dot com...

 

Ask Jeeves is still alive and kicking today. It's just runs very slow on Netscape Navigator.

[notin]

Ask Jeeves is still alive and kicking today. It's just runs very slow on Netscape Navigator.

 

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