A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

I hope I'm as wrong as I was in 2013.

 

I'm sure you do.

[S5Dewey]

I, for one, look forward to going into 2020 with the best 26 men the Sox have right now. We don't know exactly who will make the roster, but we do know Boston has good regulars at most spots on the diamond and good pitchers in the rotation. Many of them are or have been recently among the top at their positions in the entire MLB.

 

I'm not saying this because I want it to be true or because I'm sentimental... just stating the facts off recent statistical accomplishments or performance awards. Here's a list of current Red Sox players who in the past two years either led the league in a major stat or received votes of recognition from peers or professional observers: Betts, Bogaerts, Devers, Martinez, Bradley, Vazquez, Benintendi, Sale and Rodriguez.

 

To expect them all to continue to be stars yet again may be overly optimistic... but to expect them all to regress -- when many are just entering their primes -- is just unreasonable.

 

This group of Red Sox is as solid with as much or more potential than any other contender's core. And this year they have something to prove. Let's go!

 

A man after my own heart!

 

While it's unlikely that our pitching staff will improve enough to garner the Sox a WSC I find that more probable than the team being in contention if we lose some of our premier players. I say start the season with our position team intact and see what happens.

 

If we're out of it at the trade deadline see what we can get for the players we're talking about trading now. There's little market for Price, Betts, and JBJ now. Would it be any worse at the deadline, when the "buyers" may be willing to give up significant prospects or currently young ML players to take one of our premiere players into the playoffs?

[moonslav59]

I, for one, look forward to going into 2020 with the best 26 men the Sox have right now. We don't know exactly who will make the roster, but we do know Boston has good regulars at most spots on the diamond and good pitchers in the rotation. Many of them are or have been recently among the top at their positions in the entire MLB.

 

I'm not saying this because I want it to be true or because I'm sentimental... just stating the facts off recent statistical accomplishments or performance awards. Here's a list of current Red Sox players who in the past two years either led the league in a major stat or received votes of recognition from peers or professional observers: Betts, Bogaerts, Devers, Martinez, Bradley, Vazquez, Benintendi, Sale and Rodriguez.

 

To expect them all to continue to be stars yet again may be overly optimistic... but to expect them all to regress -- when many are just entering their primes -- is just unreasonable.

 

This group of Red Sox is as solid with as much or more potential than any other contender's core. And this year they have something to prove. Let's go!

 

Nobody, except maybe jacko, expects all or most to "regress." The problem is we need progression from many over 2019.

 

Yes, we don't over 2018, but we are missing a few key and many minor pieces from that 2018 club. If we get the best of 2018 or 2019 from all our players, wecould win 118 games again, even without Porcello, Kimbrel, Kelly, Pearce, Pom, Nunez, Holt, Leon and others, but that's kinda wishful thinking, isn't it? Not totally unreasonable to hope most do, but will enough do it?

 

Here's the best season out of 2018 or 2019 by current Sox players:

 

The optimist view:

OPS

1.078 Betts '18

1.031 JD '18

.939 Bogey '19

.916 Devers '19

.830 Beni '18

.798 Vaz '18

.766 Chavis '19

.744 Lin '18

.738 JBJ '18

 

Here's the pessimist view:

.939 JD '19

.915 Betts '19

.883 Bogey '18

.774 Beni '19

.766 Chavis '19

.731 Devers

.717 JBJ

.573 Lin

.540 Vaz

 

Pitchers

WAR

Optimist:

6.2 Sale '18

3.7 ERod '19

2.4 Price '18

2.1 Workman '19

1.5 Eovaldi '18 (1/3 season)

1.3 Barnes '19

0.9 Walden '19

0.7 Taylor '19

0.7 Brasier '18

0.5 DHern '19

0.4 Velazquez '18

0.3 Weber '19

0.3 Lakins '19

0.3 Johnson '18

0.2 Poyner '18

0.1 Hembree '18 & '19

 

Pessimist:

3.6 Sale'19

2.3 Price '19

2.1 ERod '18

1.2 Barnes '18

0.3 Brasier '19

0.2 Walden '18

0.1 Hembree '18 & '19

0.0 Poyner '19

0.0 Johnson '19

-0.2 Shawaryn '19

-0.3 Eovaldi '19

 

Peraza:

.742 in '18

.631 in '19

 

Perez:

1.9 in '19

-0.1in '18

 

 

 

Edited January 12, 2020 by moonslav59

[notin]

A man after my own heart!

 

While it's unlikely that our pitching staff will improve enough to garner the Sox a WSC I find that more probable than the team being in contention if we lose some of our premier players. I say start the season with our position team intact and see what happens.

 

If we're out of it at the trade deadline see what we can get for the players we're talking about trading now. There's little market for Price, Betts, and JBJ now. Would it be any worse at the deadline, when the "buyers" may be willing to give up significant prospects or currently young ML players to take one of our premiere players into the playoffs?

 

There’s actually a decent market for Bradley right now.

 

The CF free agent market is depleted, and the trade market is headlined by Bradley and Starling Marte. Bradley has the disadvantage of having one year left and being represented by Scott Boras. Marte is controlled for longer, but there are questions surrounding his ability to even play CF anymore.

 

The Diamondbacks and Mets are two teams currently looking for CF help...

[moonslav59]

There’s actually a decent market for Bradley right now.

 

The CF free agent market is depleted, and the trade market is headlined by Bradley and Starling Marte. Bradley has the disadvantage of having one year left and being represented by Scott Boras. Marte is controlled for longer, but there are questions surrounding his ability to even play CF anymore.

 

The Diamondbacks and Mets are two teams currently looking for CF help...

 

These trades were accepted:

 

JBJ & Chavis for D. Smith, Marisnik & Matz

 

JBJ for Lamb & Barraso

 

[notin]

These trades were accepted:

 

JBJ & Chavis for D. Smith, Marisnik & Matz

 

JBJ for Lamb & Barraso

 

 

A JBJ for Lamb trade makes sense for both teams with the right addendum. Lamb is listed at the backup 1b and 3b and was a surprise tender. Lamb settled for $5.5 mill for this ripple.

 

Meanwhile, MLB.com lists Ketel Marte as starting at both 2b and CF, which is obviously not happening. If they could deal a backup INF for a starting CF, they need to do it.

 

The Red Sox would certainly save some cash towards the cap, but also need a new CF. So Arizona should include something to help the Sox full this role...

[moonslav59]

A JBJ for Lamb trade makes sense for both teams with the right addendum. Lamb is listed at the backup 1b and 3b and was a surprise tender. Lamb settled for $5.5 mill for this ripple.

 

Meanwhile, MLB.com lists Ketel Marte as starting at both 2b and CF, which is obviously not happening. If they could deal a backup INF for a starting CF, they need to do it.

 

The Red Sox would certainly save some cash towards the cap, but also need a new CF. So Arizona should include something to help the Sox full this role...

 

Your thoughts on my Mets offer?

[notin]

Your thoughts on my Mets offer?

 

My simpler version I posted a while back was Bradley plus $5mill for Smith. Smith is absolutely expendable there, much like Lamb in AZ. So they’re good targets.

 

But I’m not wild about Marisnick or the oft-injured Matz.

 

I would not mind seeing Bradley to AZ for Lamb, with AZ also sending RHP prospect Matt Tabor to either Oakland (Skye Bolt) or Philly (Roman Quinn) for a CF to come back to Boston.

 

Of course, if this is true about being competitive trumping the tax reset, why deal Bradley at all? Although I do think getting a LHH 1b and maybe bullpen help should be of some priority for the Sox...

[moonslav59]

My simpler version I posted a while back was Bradley plus $5mill for Smith. Smith is absolutely expendable there, much like Lamb in AZ. So they’re good targets.

 

But I’m not wild about Marisnick or the oft-injured Matz.

 

I would not mind seeing Bradley to AZ for Lamb, with AZ also sending RHP prospect Matt Tabor to either Oakland (Skye Bolt) or Philly (Roman Quinn) for a CF to come back to Boston.

 

Of course, if this is true about being competitive trumping the tax reset, why deal Bradley at all? Although I do think getting a LHH 1b and maybe bullpen help should be of some priority for the Sox...

 

Giving $5M with JBJ kind of defeats the purpose of cutting major budget cost, but I'd probably do that deal, if they threw in Marisnick.

 

I know you are not a fan of his, but he plays great D and is versatile.

 

He's not known for his offense, but 2017-2019:

 

OPS

.728 Marisnick

.727 JBJ (double the PAs)

[notin]

Giving $5M with JBJ kind of defeats the purpose of cutting major budget cost, but I'd probably do that deal, if they threw in Marisnick.

 

I know you are not a fan of his, but he plays great D and is versatile.

 

He's not known for his offense, but 2017-2019:

 

OPS

.728 Marisnick

.727 JBJ (double the PAs)

 

He plays great D and Cora is a fan, but I am intrigued by the defensive metrics of the likely cheaper Cesar Puello. Neither will hit.

 

But I would like to see the Sox sign Puello as a fourth OF.

[Swiharts Ghost]

Kirby Yates and will Meyers for Price and JBJ ?

[notin]

Kirby Yates and will Meyers for Price and JBJ ?

 

Why would the Padres want JBJ? They’ve already rebuilt their OF and have been unloading outfielders for half the off-season...

[moonslav59]

Why would the Padres want JBJ? They’ve already rebuilt their OF and have been unloading outfielders for half the off-season...

 

Isn't Myers an OF'er for the Padres?

 

We'd likely play him at 1B, if we trades Price and JBJ for him and ____.

[Swiharts Ghost]

Why would the Padres want JBJ? They’ve already rebuilt their OF and have been unloading outfielders for half the off-season...

 

He’s a better defender than they have he can save runs in that Death Valley of a stadium ? Maybe I overvalue JBJ defense ? I don’t think so and they could use Price not only do they need rotation help they need buzz there in Cali where the Giants the As the Dodgers all are successful.

[Swiharts Ghost]

Isn't Myers an OF'er for the Padres?

 

We'd likely play him at 1B, if we trades Price and JBJ for him and ____.

 

 

Myers gets a terrible wrap for playing in that s*** field the guy hits to all fields and would benefit greatly playing at Fenway .I haven’t been one to trade for the kid because frankly I thought their where better players we could net .The guy could very well resurrect a terrible reputation and career .Fenway Park plays very well for this player .

Edited January 12, 2020 by Swiharts Ghost

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I've thought all winter that the Sox could deal Price for Myers, maybe with one or two others going back and forth, and then even just cut Myers if it's not working out. Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't Boston still save $10M towards the payroll reset with Myers instead of Price, even if they have to eat the contract?

[Nick]

"This focus on [the] CBT resides with the media far more than it does within the Sox," said Henry. "I think every team probably wants to reset at least once every three years -- that's sort of been the history -- but just this week ... I reminded baseball ops that we are focused on competitiveness over the next five years over and above resetting to which they said, 'That's exactly how we've been approaching it.'"

 

We can f***ing stop wasting another 25 pages on different trade scenario to reduce payroll that Henry now says is not needed. Move on boys.

[notin]

He’s a better defender than they have he can save runs in that Death Valley of a stadium ? Maybe I overvalue JBJ defense ? I don’t think so and they could use Price not only do they need rotation help they need buzz there in Cali where the Giants the As the Dodgers all are successful.

 

They have good defensive outfielders, including a Tommy Pham, Franchy Cordero and Trent Grisham. So much defense, they have Manny Margot on the bench

[notin]

 

We can f***ing stop wasting another 25 pages on different trade scenario to reduce payroll that Henry now says is not needed. Move on boys.

 

Right. Back to the productive posts.

 

Of course, “not resetting” might be just talk as well..

[notin]

I've thought all winter that the Sox could deal Price for Myers, maybe with one or two others going back and forth, and then even just cut Myers if it's not working out. Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't Boston still save $10M towards the payroll reset with Myers instead of Price, even if they have to eat the contract?

 

They lower the tax money by $17mill, as Price’s AAV is $31mill and Myers’ is just under $14mill. The do save about $10 mill per year in actual cash.

 

I think the main reason it didn’t happen is Myers sucks...

[moonslav59]

I've thought all winter that the Sox could deal Price for Myers, maybe with one or two others going back and forth, and then even just cut Myers if it's not working out. Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't Boston still save $10M towards the payroll reset with Myers instead of Price, even if they have to eat the contract?

 

Myers's contract only counts as $13.83 on the lux tax. That's what makes this deal make so much sense. The Padres don't care about the lux tax- only actual salary. His salary is $22.5 x 2 plus a $1M buy out.

 

The Padres pay about $9M x 3 more for Price than Myers.

 

The Sox save about $17.2M x 3 on the lux tax budget. (We are over by about $17-18M, right now!)

 

I'm kind of surprised there hasn't been much talk about this deal anywhere but sites like this.

[Bellhorn04]

"This focus on [the] CBT resides with the media far more than it does within the Sox," said Henry. "I think every team probably wants to reset at least once every three years -- that's sort of been the history -- but just this week ... I reminded baseball ops that we are focused on competitiveness over the next five years over and above resetting to which they said, 'That's exactly how we've been approaching it.'"

 

We can f***ing stop wasting another 25 pages on different trade scenario to reduce payroll that Henry now says is not needed. Move on boys.

 

Ha ha...I empathize, but any posts are better than no posts.

[Bellhorn04]

Right. Back to the productive posts.

 

Of course, “not resetting” might be just talk as well..

 

The message is pretty clear now - they'd like to reset, but not at the expense of the 2020 team being competitive.

 

On its face, that would rule out any payroll-cutting trades in which we get worse.

[moonslav59]

They have good defensive outfielders, including a Tommy Pham, Franchy Cordero and Trent Grisham. So much defense, they have Manny Margot on the bench

 

I forgot about Pham.

 

All the more reason to get Margot back, but no way will they want JBJ.

 

Price, Chavis & Walden & cash for Myers, Yates & Margot.

 

More likely: Price & Chavis (no cash) for Myers & Margot.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If you guys can get Bloom to swing a deal that includes both Price and Yates, it would appease fans of 2020 and 2021!

 

“There is another world, but it is in this one.” W.B. Yeats

[moonslav59]

If you guys can get Bloom to swing a deal that includes both Price and Yates, it would appease fans of 2020 and 2021!

 

“There is another world, but it is in this one.” W.B. Yeats

 

Agreed, and Myers does have some upside. He's likely to have a better season than Chavis at 1B in 2020.

[notin]

Agreed, and Myers does have some upside. He's likely to have a better season than Chavis at 1B in 2020.

 

Price-Myers trade rumors have been floating all off season. If there was even the remotest possibility, Myers would already be in Boston.

 

My guess is Bloom is holding out for more or just flat out hates Myers...

[Swiharts Ghost]

Myers's contract only counts as $13.83 on the lux tax. That's what makes this deal make so much sense. The Padres don't care about the lux tax- only actual salary. His salary is $22.5 x 2 plus a $1M buy out.

 

The Padres pay about $9M x 3 more for Price than Myers.

 

The Sox save about $17.2M x 3 on the lux tax budget. (We are over by about $17-18M, right now!)

 

I'm kind of surprised there hasn't been much talk about this deal anywhere but sites like this.

 

Moon it just might be the deal they are working on now .Takes time for physicals to come back .Clean bill and we hears soon .

[Swiharts Ghost]

Price-Myers trade rumors have been floating all off season. If there was even the remotest possibility, Myers would already be in Boston.

 

My guess is Bloom is holding out for more or just flat out hates Myers...

Notin have you ever even considered the possibility they are making this deal and that they have been waiting on the dust to clear from last weeks salary arbs ? Maybe this gets a ton of play nation wide because frankly it’s a good deal for both teams? I took time to warm to it because I exasperated my own options maybe they have done the same .Dont sleep on this deal it could likely ignite both franchises .

[moonslav59]

Moon it just might be the deal they are working on now .Takes time for physicals to come back .Clean bill and we hears soon .

 

I doubt there's even a 50-50 chance we guess a trade like this right.