A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[notin]

Those trades (of entirely unproductive or under productive players) were done before the end of 2012, and in the off-season, the Red Sox acquired Uehara, Victorino, Stephen Drew, Dempster and Napoli. Here it is already January. If we dump Betts (approaching his prime years) and Price (underproductive) at this juncture, there is no chance to bring in productive replacement parts, because there is nothing helpful left on the FA market. So, if we dump them from this point on, I will say "never" for 2020.

 

Straight up salary dump, yeah it is tough. Deal them seperately so you actually get something for Betts, and I will call it conditional...

[notin]

^ This is argumentative idiocy. Dumping Betts and Price effectively ends any possibility of the Red Sox competing for a World Championship. That is clear.

 

I think that depends on the rest of the off-season. Losing Bryce Harper clearly didn't end any chances of a Washington World Series title...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I am not without hap, but I will be if the Red Sox break up their still-young core -- that no GM traded in pursuit of a title -- that already helped Boston finish first three straight years... and is just about to enter its prime.

 

That includes Bogaerts and Betts, who won two Silver Slugger Awards each by age 25 (23 for X)... and Benintendi, who at age 22 became the youngest Sox player to homer in a postseason game... and Devers, who broke that record the very next year at age 20.

 

I'm not just a fan addict; I read and consider all the comments on several forums, and hope that I admit mistakes and can be persuaded to change my opinions. Since people here are weighing odds of likely outcomes, I say there's a better than even chance that Mookie, Bogie, Benny and Rafie all improve in 2020 (in one aspect or another; defense on the left side, overall play from LF, more consistent at bats from RF)... providing a solid foundation for a group looking to rebound from an offyear after the best onyear in team history.

 

I give the following a worse than even chance to improve: Vazquez, Bradley, JD (all over or pushing 30, and maybe too superball reliant), and Chavis (soph slump, which began in frosh year).

 

As for the Big Three starters returning to their prime 2018 forms, I'd say Eovaldi is better than even and Price worse than even. I'm also confident that Sale is still Sale, but can only say 50-50 because of injury concerns.

 

Just remember that Sale was still dominant at times in '19 -- like the entire two-month stretch of May-June when he held opposing hitters to a .185 batting average; in those 11 starts Sale's record was only 3-2. His strikeouts to walks ratio for the season was 5.89, better than his career 5.37 -- which is the best in MLB history.

 

If Sale had better run support last year his record could have easily been reversed from 6-11 to 11-6. Then, upon reflection, quotes would've changed from "Sale was a problem" to "Sale had a problem" (as in health)...

Edited January 5, 2020 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[notin]

This is just more silliness. Replacing last year’s David Price ? We are hoping that he will be 2018 David Price in 2020. Vargas and other garbage you mentioned don’t even have that capability. Puig for Betts?

 

It couldn’t be any clearer. If we dump Betts and Price at this juncture, it signals a forfeit for 2020.

 

First of all, Price was worth 2.4 fWAR in 2018. Not much of an improvement. And he is two years older now, so are you expecting a return to 2018 or just hoping for one?

 

Second, are you. saying a team with Bogaerts, Devers, Martinez, Sale, Benintendi, Vazquez, Chavis and Rodríguez should just fold? Should they just punt the year and play for better draft picks?

[a700hitter]

First of all, Price was worth 2.4 fWAR in 2018. Not much of an improvement. And he is two years older now, so are you expecting a return to 2018 or just hoping for one?

 

Second, are you. saying a team with Bogaerts, Devers, Martinez, Sale, Benintendi, Vazquez, Chavis and Rodríguez should just fold? Should they just punt the year and play for better draft picks?

This is what I am saying. I will be very clear.

 

1. I think Price is still capable of a 2018 type season.

2. Dumping Betts and Price at this juncture would be the equivalent of the FO throwing in the towel on 2020. I didn’t say the players would fold. They will continue to try, but management will have decided not to go for it.

3. Arguing that it would not be conceding the season if they were to dump Betts and Price is either an attempt to troll or plain stupidity.

4. The FO will not dump Betts and Price. They might dump Price if they have legit worries about his health, but they will not dump Betts and Price before the season starts, because they agree with me on 1 thru 3.

[Sox75]

It is HIGHLY UNLIKELY that we get an equivalent return by trading Mookie!

With Betts, the Sox have a legit shot in 2020.

Without him, I see little chance of getting there.

 

To me, it's pretty simple. Right now, there is little out there in return for Betts. If the Sox are out of it in the coming season, we could still deal him before the deadline, IF WE ARE NOT going in on the bidding war for him.

 

IF we are intent upon passing on his MASSIVE PAYDAY, we can use that money next year to land something else.

 

Why not take this VERY STRONG CORE of Betts, Bogie, Benny, JDM, Devers, & co., shoot for more BP help, and give 2020 a shot?

 

Our hands are somewhat tied, so it's time to hope & push for more pitching, and trust that this core will rebound.

They are capable, & all will be WELL MOTIVATED to perform.

 

Push these inextricable problems to next year, & go for it!

[a700hitter]

I think that depends on the rest of the off-season. Losing Bryce Harper clearly didn't end any chances of a Washington World Series title...

It would have been the end if they had dumped Strasburg and Harper

[Sox75]

This is what I am saying. I will be very clear.

 

1. I think Price is still capable of a 2018 type season.

2. Dumping Betts and Price at this juncture would be the equivalent of the FO throwing in the towel on 2020. I didn’t say the players would fold. They will continue to try, but management will have decided not to go for it.

3. Arguing that it would not be conceding the season if they were to dump Betts and Price is either an attempt to troll or plain stupidity.

4. The FO will not dump Betts and Price. They might dump Price if they have legit worries about his health, but they will not dump Betts and Price before the season starts, because they agree with me on 1 thru 3.

 

Um... yes.

I could have said this, but I went with a rambling version.

 

[Sox75]

Now that I'm done nursing my Oregon Ducks to victory, & nursing my Pats to EPIC & PATHETIC defeat, I have room again on my emotional sports plate for the Sox once again.

 

Ok.... last year, I really let down before the Sox season.

 

My bad! I own that. My fault entirely!

 

You guys give me another shot WITH Mookie?

 

I will bring the WSC home one more time!

[Sox75]

Happy New Years fellas!

[a700hitter]

Happy New Years fellas!

And go Red Sox!

[moonslav59]

Those trades (of entirely unproductive or under productive players) were done before the end of 2012, and in the off-season, the Red Sox acquired Uehara, Victorino, Stephen Drew, Dempster and Napoli. Here it is already January. If we dump Betts (approaching his prime years) and Price (underproductive) at this juncture, there is no chance to bring in productive replacement parts, because there is nothing helpful left on the FA market. So, if we dump them from this point on, I will say "never" for 2020.

 

I thought I was clear about this being about 2021 and beyond.

[moonslav59]

Those trades (of entirely unproductive or under productive players) were done before the end of 2012, and in the off-season, the Red Sox acquired Uehara, Victorino, Stephen Drew, Dempster and Napoli. Here it is already January. If we dump Betts (approaching his prime years) and Price (underproductive) at this juncture, there is no chance to bring in productive replacement parts, because there is nothing helpful left on the FA market. So, if we dump them from this point on, I will say "never" for 2020.

 

ERod and Porcello via Cespedes were not entirely unproductive. Plus this is and was then more about clearing budget space for the next season.

[notin]

This is what I am saying. I will be very clear.

 

1. I think Price is still capable of a 2018 type season.

2. Dumping Betts and Price at this juncture would be the equivalent of the FO throwing in the towel on 2020. I didn’t say the players would fold. They will continue to try, but management will have decided not to go for it.

3. Arguing that it would not be conceding the season if they were to dump Betts and Price is either an attempt to troll or plain stupidity.

4. The FO will not dump Betts and Price. They might dump Price if they have legit worries about his health, but they will not dump Betts and Price before the season starts, because they agree with me on 1 thru 3.

 

 

Here is my thoughts.

 

1. Price is replaceable. The 2018 version really was not so great that we should want it. Pick in Ivan Nova, but he’s pitched 187 IP twice in the last 3 years to Price’s 0 times in that span. And despite not being a strike out pitcher, his K/BB isn’t much lower than Price’s. (Now you might argue the Sox need a strikeout pitcher given their defense. Fair point. But they also need one who pitches.)

 

2. Betts is not replaceable, but not necessarily a white flag. This is a sport where every team wins between 40% and 60% of thei games, and the few that don’t, don’t miss by much. To me, it depends on the deal. Salary dump him with Price? Going to be tough. Trade him for some MLB-ready players and prospects? Maybe. (The infamous simulator says Betts for Julio Urias and Tony Gonsolin is fair.). What about one year of Betts for one year of George Springer plus another? Still a white flag?

[moonslav59]

Trading Betts is not about getting equal return, although we can. It’s about getting something for him, instead of a lousy comp pick.

Re-sign him next year or spend that money elsewhere.

I’m not saying I’m for trading Betts, since I want him to retire a Sox, but losing him next winter for nothing is the worst scenario, to me.

[harmony]

Steamer optimistically projects Chris Sale, David Price and Nathan Eovaldi to combine for 489 innings in 2020 with a combined 4.0 WAR higher than the trio posted last season.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=3&lg=all&players=0

 

... which is good news for a club trying to improve on an 84-win season that left the Sox 12 games behind the second Wild Card slot.

 

However, regression works in both directions as evidenced by these 2019 WAR totals and Steamer 2020 WAR projections:

 

C Christian Vazquez (3.5, 2.8)

1B Michael Chavez (0.7, 0.9)*

2B Jose Peraza (-0.6, 0.6)*

SS Xander Bogaerts (6.8, 4.8)

3B Rafael Devers (5.9, 4.7)

RF Mookie Betts (6.6, 6.6)

CF Jackie Bradley Jr. (1.4, 2.0)

LF Andrew Benintendi (2.0, 2.6)

DH J.D. Martinez (3.2, 3.6)

SP Chris Sale (3.6, 4.9)

SP David Price (2.3, 2.6)

SP Eduardo Rodriguez (3.7, 2.8)

SP Nathan Eovaldi (1.9, 1.6)

SP Martin Perez (1.9, 1.6)**

RP Brandon Workman (2.1, 0.5)

RP Matt Barnes (1.3, 1.0)

* last season the Red Sox got a negative 0.4 fWAR from first base and 0.0 fWAR from second base

** last season Rick Porcello posted 1.8 fWAR for the Red Sox

[a700hitter]

ERod and Porcello via Cespedes were not entirely unproductive. Plus this is and was then more about clearing budget space for the next season.

I didn’t know that they were even in the conversation. I thought we were talking about 2012 off season.

[a700hitter]

I thought I was clear about this being about 2021 and beyond.

That would be a different story.

[jacksonianmarch]

Trading Betts can plug multiple holes. If the idea is to get Pollock, Gonsolin and Stripling, you can then go out and deal off Eovaldi and Price for nothing spectacular and you’ve plugged their holes plus replaced Betts with a competent, big league level replacement. Maybe it allows you to eat enough money on Eo or Price’s deal to get a competent 2b prospect or current big leaguer.

[moonslav59]

Trading Betts can plug multiple holes. If the idea is to get Pollock, Gonsolin and Stripling, you can then go out and deal off Eovaldi and Price for nothing spectacular and you’ve plugged their holes plus replaced Betts with a competent, big league level replacement. Maybe it allows you to eat enough money on Eo or Price’s deal to get a competent 2b prospect or current big leaguer.

 

I'm not saying I want this deal done, but it was accepted by the trade simulator:

 

Betts (50.0)

 

for

 

Gonsolin (19.9) P

Cartaya (10.3) C

Peters (8.3) OF

Busch (7.6) 2B

Beaty (3.3) 1B- good platoon match with Chavis

 

49.4 Total

 

OR

 

Betts & Northcut (51.4)

 

for

 

Downs 2B 21.9

Gonsolin P 19.9

Cartaya C 10.3

 

Total 52.1

 

Here's one with Eovaldi:

 

Betts & Eovaldi (20.5)

 

for

 

Joe Kelly -12.7

Gonsolin, Cartaya & Beaty

Total 20.8

 

Edited January 6, 2020 by moonslav59

[jacksonianmarch]

I don't think Bloom is best served tacking on a cash dump to Betts. Betts is his best chance to capably fill multiple holes and build for the future

[moonslav59]

I don't think Bloom is best served tacking on a cash dump to Betts. Betts is his best chance to capably fill multiple holes and build for the future

 

I'm not sure how it's different from trading Betts and then dumping Price is a separate deal.

[jacksonianmarch]

It all depends on if you want to give up on 2020 or not? The sox aren't keen on publicly showing a lack of interest in 2020. Therefore, they are gonna have to fill some holes. Dumping Price leaves a hole in the rotation. Dealing Betts leaves a hole in the OF. As it stands, the sox #5 starter sucks entirely and the sox rotation isn't exactly full of ironmen. So adding a pitcher, an OFer and then a top prospect who is MLB ready helps fill the roster out and feign competitiveness. Dealing off Price and Betts for nothing leaves the sox with holes that cannot be filled on the open market now and essentially punts an entire year from day 1

[moonslav59]

It all depends on if you want to give up on 2020 or not? The sox aren't keen on publicly showing a lack of interest in 2020. Therefore, they are gonna have to fill some holes. Dumping Price leaves a hole in the rotation. Dealing Betts leaves a hole in the OF. As it stands, the sox #5 starter sucks entirely and the sox rotation isn't exactly full of ironmen. So adding a pitcher, an OFer and then a top prospect who is MLB ready helps fill the roster out and feign competitiveness. Dealing off Price and Betts for nothing leaves the sox with holes that cannot be filled on the open market now and essentially punts an entire year from day 1

 

Price is already a hole in the rotation. We can't count on him.

 

Pollock and Maeda/Gonsolin do not leave holes.

 

Gonsolin might be a better bet in 2020. If we can get Maeda, too, I'd try.

 

We could pass on Downs and Cartaya and go...

 

Betts & Price

 

for

 

Pollock, Kelly, Maeda, Gonsolin, Wong and Beaty

 

If Pollock & Maeda stay healthy and Kelly rebounds, we may be as good as with Betts and an iffy Price.

[jacksonianmarch]

But the Dodgers haven't been linked to Price at all and I don't see a match there, period. If Price is gonna go, it will be to a team that is dying for pitching and will hope against hope that Price can fight father time. That isn't LA

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's going to be painful enough for Bloom to pull the trigger on a MLB-ready haul of actual good prospects for Betts, because such a deal signals punting 2020. That's about the only thing I agree with, to paraphrase one poster's cautions -- "people won't like the trade at the time, but it will work out later". I won't name names of these highly-touted youngsters that Bloom has to hold out for, but by now we're all familiar with them.

 

I trust Bloom not dealing a Hall of Fame fan favorite for a washed up outfielder, an inconsistent bullpen arm and someone's 4th-best minor league pitcher. As for Price, he will be dumped for next to nothing (maybe even for a guy the Sox wind up cutting) and we'll move on.

[cp176]

I think that depends on the rest of the off-season. Losing Bryce Harper clearly didn't end any chances of a Washington World Series title...

 

Harper = Betts - hm

[jacksonianmarch]

It's going to be painful enough for Bloom to pull the trigger on a MLB-ready haul of actual good prospects for Betts, because such a deal signals punting 2020. That's about the only thing I agree with, to paraphrase one poster's cautions -- "people won't like the trade at the time, but it will work out later". I won't name names of these highly-touted youngsters that Bloom has to hold out for, but by now we're all familiar with them.

 

I trust Bloom not dealing a Hall of Fame fan favorite for a washed up outfielder, an inconsistent bullpen arm and someone's 4th-best minor league pitcher. As for Price, he will be dumped for next to nothing (maybe even for a guy the Sox wind up cutting) and we'll move on.

 

One year of a hall of fame type player who is then going to hit the market and go to the highest bidder. This is the problem when you get sentimental, you forget reality

[Bellhorn04]

The MLBTR lead story on the Dodgers is that Stan Kasten took it on himself to defend the team's lack of activity this offseason.

[moonslav59]

One year of a hall of fame type player who is then going to hit the market and go to the highest bidder. This is the problem when you get sentimental, you forget reality

 

I've seen large hauls go to 2 month rentals not as good as Betts.

 

That's reality, too.