A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[moonslav59]

It's getting harder and harder to see how they can re-set and be competitive this year.

 

Mildly competitive with an outside chance of putting it all together.

 

Myabe we just need to take the best deal we can get to get us under the limit and look to 2021.

[moonslav59]

Reminder....

 

Luxury tax is determined at year end. That's ten months from now. Why the panic? We can get rid of Mookie and about $8M at trade deadline, no? Surely we can get a comparable 4th round draft pick in a trade for Mookie.

 

Shedding $8M will not put us under the line.

 

Minimum, we need to trade JBJ this winter and someone with a big contract at the deadline.

[jacksonianmarch]

Spotrac has the Sox over the lux tax by $23+ mil. That’s an entire Mookie minus about $4 mil based on arb estimates

[moonslav59]

Spotrac has the Sox over the lux tax by $23+ mil. That’s an entire Mookie minus about $4 mil based on arb estimates

 

I trust cots: $18.6M over.

[a700hitter]

The bullpen wasn’t a huge problem last year given what they were asked to do, but the one guy who bothered me was Barnes and his complete ineffectiveness on consecutive days. Workman actually was very effective in the closer role.

 

I have mixed emotions about Chavis, and I actually hope they can get a LHH compliment. But it will probably be limited to Matt Adams or (ugh) Greg Bird due to the budget limits...

The bullpen needs retooling, regardless of any interpretation of last years stats. Workman was a nice surprise last season, but I am not ready to anoint him as today’s Bruce Sutter. Matt Barnes’ shelf life has probably expired. There are just no quality dependable arms in our pen. It is a collection of garbage.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The bullpen needs retooling, regardless of any interpretation of last years stats. Workman was a nice surprise last season, but I am not ready to anoint him as today’s Bruce Sutter. Matt Barnes’ shelf life has probably expired. There are just no quality dependable arms in our pen. It is a collection of garbage.

 

Retooling, yes. Garbage, no.

 

I agree Workman had a career year and no one wants to see Barnes in the 9th ever again, but Darwinzon and Taylor still have some upside to their arms. After seeing Tampa use openers and then trade one of their best -- Stanik -- for a guy even better -- Anderson -- I'm confident building quality depth in the pen is a forte of Bloom's.

 

As important as bullpens are to contenders, the most inconsistent position in MLB is reliever. Teams will always pay big for someone they hope is reliable because there's nothing worse than blowing a win at the end of a game. But every season it seems like at least half the money relievers go bad. Give Dombro credit for getting Kimbrel in his prime, and walking away from him when he was cooked.

 

All ballplayers are human, but the main problem with relievers is chronology; they perform in the most crucial moments of the game. Nobody is perfect, except Eckersly for a few years, the first almost-automatic guy who every other team has futilely sought to replicate ever since (except for NY's Mo). Blame it on Eck... Price, call a press conference!

[a700hitter]

Retooling, yes. Garbage, no.

 

I agree Workman had a career year and no one wants to see Barnes in the 9th ever again, but Darwinzon and Taylor still have some upside to their arms. After seeing Tampa use openers and then trade one of their best -- Stanik -- for a guy even better -- Anderson -- I'm confident building quality depth in the pen is a forte of Bloom's.

 

As important as bullpens are to contenders, the most inconsistent position in MLB is reliever. Teams will always pay big for someone they hope is reliable because there's nothing worse than blowing a win at the end of a game. But every season it seems like at least half the money relievers go bad. Give Dombro credit for getting Kimbrel in his prime, and walking away from him when he was cooked.

 

All ballplayers are human, but the main problem with relievers is chronology; they perform in the most crucial moments of the game. Nobody is perfect, except Eckersly for a few years, the first almost-automatic guy who every other team has futilely sought to replicate ever since (except for NY's Mo). Blame it on Eck... Price, call a press conference!

My “garbage” comment was hyperbole.

[harmony]

I trust cots: $18.6M over.

Serous question: Why trust Cot’s over Spotrac (or vice versa)?

[a700hitter]

When was the last interesting off-season?

We didn’t need an interesting offseason last year, because we played until the end of October and were able to bask in the glow of the greatest season in team history.

 

In the off-season before, they signed JD Martinez, Mitch Moreland and Eduardo Nunez. That was pretty interesting.

 

The off-season before that we acquired Chris Sale and Mitch Moreland. That was very interesting.

 

The off-season before that we acquired David Price, Craig Kimbrel, Chris Young, and Carson Smith. That was very active and very interesting.

[Bellhorn04]

Serous question: Why trust Cot’s over Spotrac (or vice versa)?

 

When I compared the two in my Budgie thread, it appears that Spotrac projects a much larger number for players being called up from the minors during the year. It almost seems to be a worst case scenario projection.

[harmony]

When I compared the two in my Budgie thread, it appears that Spotrac projects a much larger number for players being called up from the minors during the year. It almost seems to be a worst case scenario projection.

Conversely, does Cot’s offer the best-case scenario?

[Bellhorn04]

Conversely, does Cot’s offer the best-case scenario?

 

It seems that way. So maybe averaging the two would be fair.

[moonslav59]

Serous question: Why trust Cot’s over Spotrac (or vice versa)?

 

I've run the numbers myself and find cots is usually spot on. Spotrac has been wrong before.

[moonslav59]

When I compared the two in my Budgie thread, it appears that Spotrac projects a much larger number for players being called up from the minors during the year. It almost seems to be a worst case scenario projection.

 

It shouldn't matter how many are aclled up. They only get ML pay for the amount of days they are on the ML squad. It shouldn't matter if 2 guys get ML pay or 20 guys sharing the same 2 slots.

[Bellhorn04]

It shouldn't matter how many are aclled up. They only get ML pay for the amount of days they are on the ML squad. It shouldn't matter if 2 guys get ML pay or 20 guys sharing the same 2 slots.

 

Cot's it is, then.

[moonslav59]

Cot's it is, then.

 

JD signed for $110M/5 with opt-outs. That's $22M AVV & Lux Tax.

Cots has $22M/ Spotrac $23.75

 

Cots arb estimated Betts at $27.5/ Spotrac $27.7.

JBJ: cots has $11.5M/Spotrac $11M.

ERod: cots $9M/ Spotrac $9.5M

Most of the other arbs has Spotrac projecting slightly higher.

Spotrac has the $2M deffered money for Manny counting on the Lux Tax/ Cots does not.

 

I'm not saying Cots is better, but in my opinion I think they have been right more often than other sites.

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

JD signed for $110M/5 with opt-outs. That's $22M AVV & Lux Tax.

Cots has $22M/ Spotrac $23.75

 

Cots arb estimated Betts at $27.5/ Spotrac $27.7.

JBJ: cots has $11.5M/Spotrac $11M.

ERod: cots $9M/ Spotrac $9.5M

Most of the other arbs has Spotrac projecting slightly higher.

Spotrac has the $2M deffered money for Manny counting on the Lux Tax/ Cots does not.

 

I'm not saying Cots is better, but in my opinion I think they have been right more often than other sites.

 

Spotrac showing JD at 23.75 million doesn't do much for their credibility.

[notin]

Spotrac showing JD at 23.75 million doesn't do much for their credibility.

 

 

Well that is his salary next year...

[moonslav59]

Well that is his salary next year...

 

But, not his Lux Tax cost.

[harmony]

But, not his Lux Tax cost.

Does the AAV calculation reset after each opt-out decision (because only guaranteed salary counts)?

[moonslav59]

Does the AAV calculation reset after each opt-out decision (because only guaranteed salary counts)?

 

He is guaranteed that money. It's not a team option.

 

He counted as $22M this and last year while he made $23.75M.

[Bellhorn04]

Does the AAV calculation reset after each opt-out decision (because only guaranteed salary counts)?

 

As I understand it, if JD opts out after this year, his AAV for 2020 will be adjusted to 27.25 million, because he will have been paid 71.25 million for the 3 years and his AAV for Years 1 and 2 was 22 million.

 

2018 22

2019 22

2020 27.25

Total 71.25

 

But there's no adjustment if the player doesn't opt out.

[S5Dewey]

Serous question: Why trust Cot’s over Spotrac (or vice versa)?

 

Serous answer: Because fans of other teams who post here are attempting to put the worst possible spin on anything Sox related. There's a word for that but from what I hear that word doesn't apply to anyone who posts on this board.

 

I'd suggest we go with the one that has the best past record and apparently that's Cots.

[jacksonianmarch]

As I understand it, if JD opts out after this year, his AAV for 2020 will be adjusted to 27.25 million, because he will have been paid 71.25 million for the 3 years and his AAV for Years 1 and 2 was 22 million.

 

2018 22

2019 22

2020 27.25

Total 71.25

 

But there's no adjustment if the player doesn't opt out.

 

The AAV of the agreed upon contract stays the same but the opt out gets added to the year end. They don’t retroactively alter the AAV’s, which is a loophole I’m surprised they haven’t closed yet. It allows for ridiculously front loaded contracts with opt outs after the high value seasons while suppressing the AAV with a longer term, far lower AAV afterwards.

 

I’m surprised the owners haven’t closed this loophole to be honest. This takes away some impetus to extend players in pre arb or early arb process as it brings up their cost to a lux tax team, even if the first few years of the new extension are akin with what they would have made in arb

[Bellhorn04]

The AAV of the agreed upon contract stays the same but the opt out gets added to the year end. They don’t retroactively alter the AAV’s, which is a loophole I’m surprised they haven’t closed yet. It allows for ridiculously front loaded contracts with opt outs after the high value seasons while suppressing the AAV with a longer term, far lower AAV afterwards.

 

Any examples?

[moonslav59]

As I understand it, if JD opts out after this year, his AAV for 2020 will be adjusted to 27.25 million, because he will have been paid 71.25 million for the 3 years and his AAV for Years 1 and 2 was 22 million.

 

2018 22

2019 22

2020 27.25

Total 71.25

 

But there's no adjustment if the player doesn't opt out.

 

Nobody has JD as costing us $27.25M in 2020 against the tax. His contract guarantees him $110M/5, so the AVV is $22M x 5. If he opts out, it's his choice not the team's, so I think the money counts as quaranteed. If he did or does opt out, I don't think they go back and adjust past budgets and taxes- like Jacko says.

[jad]

(I'm trying to imagine what it would have been like for me as a kid in the 50s, listening to Curt Gowdy, to turn to the last part of this thread and be assured it concerned baseball!)

[notin]

Any examples?

 

Eric Hosmer

[Bellhorn04]

Nobody has JD as costing us $27.25M in 2020 against the tax. His contract guarantees him $110M/5, so the AVV is $22M x 5. If he opts out, it's his choice not the team's, so I think the money counts as quaranteed. If he did or does opt out, I don't think they go back and adjust past budgets and taxes- like Jacko says.

 

From what I've read they make what's called a 'true-up' adjustment if the player opts out. There was some stuff about this when Chapman opted out and then did a new deal.

Edited December 31, 2019 by Bellhorn04

[Bellhorn04]

Here is the article about Chapman. Confusing stuff!

 

https://nypost.com/2019/11/03/the-luxury-tax-implications-of-aroldis-chapmans-yankees-extension/