A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[jacksonianmarch]

You know, I said this exact thing after the selloff in 2012.

 

I thought we played it halfway, or "build from the middle" as you put it, yet we won it all in 2013.

 

I do think trading for young ML players is a better plan than trading for prospects, but we have to get the finances in order, first. How well we pull that off can make or break a quick rebuild.

 

That 2013 team was the luckiest baseball team to win a title. You cannot rely on luck. Also, the Sox did the great Houdini trade before that to rid themselves of Crawford, Beckett and AGon which allowed the Sox to spend and “spread the wealth”. The Dodgers aren’t gonna bail you out again

[moonslav59]

That 2013 team was the luckiest baseball team to win a title. You cannot rely on luck. Also, the Sox did the great Houdini trade before that to rid themselves of Crawford, Beckett and AGon which allowed the Sox to spend and “spread the wealth”. The Dodgers aren’t gonna bail you out again

 

While a lot went right, the whole "luck" claim in a myth.

 

Yes, many players had up years, buy more had better years in 2012 or 2014.

[moonslav59]

That 2013 team was the luckiest baseball team to win a title. You cannot rely on luck. Also, the Sox did the great Houdini trade before that to rid themselves of Crawford, Beckett and AGon which allowed the Sox to spend and “spread the wealth”. The Dodgers aren’t gonna bail you out again

 

One could argue Betts & Price for Pollock & someone like Downs is similar to the AGon deal.

[jad]

Just saw a story from LA about the Dodgers getting Betts and Price for "a couple of prospects." OK. Local wishful thinking.

 

But I do have a question in all seriousness: can you give me some examples where veteran players have been traded or unloaded "for prospects" where those prospects have actually become contributing players? (I really have no idea; I assume most of the players who came up 'through the ranks' in Boston were originally signed by Boston, but I could be wrong.) Any names come to mind?

[harmony]

Just saw a story from LA about the Dodgers getting Betts and Price for "a couple of prospects." OK. Local wishful thinking.

 

But I do have a question in all seriousness: can you give me some examples where veteran players have been traded or unloaded "for prospects" where those prospects have actually become contributing players? (I really have no idea; I assume most of the players who came up 'through the ranks' in Boston were originally signed by Boston, but I could be wrong.) Any names come to mind?

Andrew Miller was a 29-year-old veteran approaching free agency when the Red Sox traded the lefthander to Baltimore in July 2014 for lefty prospect Eduardo Rodriguez.

Edited December 20, 2019 by harmony

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That 2013 team was the luckiest baseball team to win a title. You cannot rely on luck. Also, the Sox did the great Houdini trade before that to rid themselves of Crawford, Beckett and AGon which allowed the Sox to spend and “spread the wealth”. The Dodgers aren’t gonna bail you out again

 

Those '13 Red Sox sure were lucky to win the most games in the majors, score the most runs, beat the team with the best starting pitchers and highest batting average in the AL in the ALCS, and beat the team that won the most games and scored the most runs in the NL in the World Series. Boston was so lucky that year that it scored at least one more run than its opponent in 108 games...

[jacksonianmarch]

By luck, I meant a team with pretty much a simultaneous career year. Many players had either their best season or their top 2-3 season. Some players had their “last gasp” season after being down for a few seasons. The complete destruction after 2013 validates this claim

[notin]

That 2013 team was the luckiest baseball team to win a title. You cannot rely on luck. Also, the Sox did the great Houdini trade before that to rid themselves of Crawford, Beckett and AGon which allowed the Sox to spend and “spread the wealth”. The Dodgers aren’t gonna bail you out again

 

You sure do speak for the Dodgers a lot...

[S5Dewey]

Trolls are like stray cats. If you feed them they keep coming back.

[jacksonianmarch]

You sure do speak for the Dodgers a lot...

 

They’re run by Chaim Bloom’s teacher. They’re not going to make another franchise saving, dumbass decision

[Bellhorn04]

By luck, I meant a team with pretty much a simultaneous career year. Many players had either their best season or their top 2-3 season. Some players had their “last gasp” season after being down for a few seasons. The complete destruction after 2013 validates this claim

 

And the Yankees were lucky in 2009 because A-Rod had a great postseason for the only time in his career.

 

The discredit game is pretty easy.

[moonslav59]

By luck, I meant a team with pretty much a simultaneous career year. Many players had either their best season or their top 2-3 season. Some players had their “last gasp” season after being down for a few seasons. The complete destruction after 2013 validates this claim

 

This is just plain wrong. Most players did not have their best year in 2013 or even their best season between 2012 and 2014. It's a hoax. Fake news. A witch hunt. It's worse than Pearl Harbor and even what they did to Jesus!

 

The Pitchers (listed by IP)

2013 ERA+

110 Lester 10th best ERA+ / 7th best bWAR yrs

Was 2nd best season from 2012-2014

117 Lackey 7th best ERA+ in 11 yrs 05-16/ 6th best bWAR yr

Was best from 2012-2014

90 Dempster 12th best ERA+/ 14th best bWAR (0.0)

Retired after 2013-was better in 2012

95 Doubront only had 2 seasons with over 75 IP- 2013 was better

The only starter with a career year in '13 w 4.32 ERA/1.429 WHIP- WOW!

237 Buchholz best ERA+ of career but only 16 starts/2nd best bWAR

Best between 2012-2013

379 Uehara best ERA+ and bWAR, but had several great years

WHIP: 0.565 in '13, 0.639 in '12, 0.723 in '11, 0.917 in '14 & '15

131 Tazawa 3rd best ERA+/2nd best bWAR

2nd best (peaked in 2012: bWAR 1.7>1.1>0.8>0.5>0.3)

102 Peavy 9th best ERA+/ 11th best bWAR

229 Breslow best career bWAR (1.6)

84 Workman 4th best out of 5 years

85 Aceves 5th best in 7 yrs

158 Miller LOL bWAR 2012-2017 (0.7>0.4>1.9>2.4>3.7>3.1)

48 Webster- nope

78 Mortenson- nope

111 Bailey- nope

85 Wilson- double nope

90 Morales - nope

(Let's nor forget Hanrahan, who was going to be our closer before getting hurt

 

[moonslav59]

The Hitters of 2013 (listed by most PAs- 250+):

2013 OPS

.787 Pedey 9th best OPS/3rd best bWAR

.781 Ellsbury 3rd best OPS/2nd best bWAR

.959 Ortiz 8th best OPS/5th best bWAR

.842 Napoli 4th best OPS/ 2nd best bWAR but 4th best oWAR

.831 Nava best OPS/ 2nd best bWAR (better in 2013)

.801 Victorino 3rd best OPS/best bWAR thanks to dWAR (6th best PAs)

.77 S Drew 5th best OPS/ 2nd best bWAR

.804 Salty Best OPS & bWAR- career year

.696 Middy nope

.771 Gomes nope

 

So, total career years in 2013?

6

Uehara

Vic

Salty

Nava

Doubront

Breslow

 

Edited December 20, 2019 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Moon, great job with the 2013 stats. The best players on those lucky Red Sox were their usual assets: Pedroia, Ellsbury and Ortiz, plus Victorino -- all veteran winners with rings. Their top three veteran starters -- Lester, Lackey and Buchholz -- all came into that season on a mission with something to prove.

 

It's the kind of motivation that often drives a team that is overlooked back into contention... and it's why pundits should always be cautious making predictions based on the previous season...

[kenmeister]

Moon, great job with the 2013 stats. The best players on those lucky Red Sox were their usual assets: Pedroia, Ellsbury and Ortiz, plus Victorino -- all veteran winners with rings. Their top three veteran starters -- Lester, Lackey and Buchholz -- all came into that season on a mission with something to prove.

 

It's the kind of motivation that often drives a team that is overlooked back into contention... and it's why pundits should always be cautious making predictions based on the previous season...

 

One day I'm going to tell my grandkids that David Ortiz hit .688 in the World Series against the Cardinals, with an OPS of 1.948 and they're going to be like, "Oh you're just making that up." Then I'll add that this wasn't even David's best postseason series (2007 ALDS against the Angels he hit .714 for a 2.418 OPS).

[jacksonianmarch]

The Hitters of 2013 (listed by most PAs- 250+):

2013 OPS

.787 Pedey 9th best OPS/3rd best bWAR

.781 Ellsbury 3rd best OPS/2nd best bWAR

.959 Ortiz 8th best OPS/5th best bWAR

.842 Napoli 4th best OPS/ 2nd best bWAR but 4th best oWAR

.831 Nava best OPS/ 2nd best bWAR (better in 2013)

.801 Victorino 3rd best OPS/best bWAR thanks to dWAR (6th best PAs)

.77 S Drew 5th best OPS/ 2nd best bWAR

.804 Salty Best OPS & bWAR- career year

.696 Middy nope

.771 Gomes nope

 

So, total career years in 2013?

6

Uehara

Vic

Salty

Nava

Doubront

Breslow

 

 

So what you are saying is 6 of your guys had career seasons. Tazawa, Ells, Drew, and Napoli had their second best seasons. Pedey, a possible HOFer, had his 3rd best season. Ortiz, a possible HOFer, had his 5th best season. So 12 of your players and more importantly, 8 of your position players had one of their two best seasons of their career or were two HOF candidates having great years as well. More importantly, the guys you bought on clearance ended up finding a last gasp.

 

Napoli was signed after he had trouble staying healthy the year before. He has an .842OPS season, and never went over .800 OPS again

 

Victorino had had two seasons of .800 or higher OPS in his career prior to coming to Boston, his last one two years prior. He was coming off a .707 OPS season. After 2013, he never crossed .700, let alone .800 again

 

Daniel Nava played the most games of his career and had his career season. The following year he barely broke .700 in OPS and essentially fell off the map from there

 

Salty had his only .800+ OPS season of his career. He went to Miami after 2013 and cratered into nothing.

 

Stephen Drew had the second best OPS+ of his career. The next two seasons, he couldn't break .660 in OPS before becoming a useful part timer for a season before retiring

 

Mike Carp had a great half season with you guys, nearly a .900 OPS. He couldn't hit the Mendoza line in 2014 and was out of baseball after that

 

Johnny Gomes OPS'd .770 in a part time role. He never broke .670 again and was out of baseball in two years

 

Smellsbury posted the second highest OPS of his career and stole 52 bases. He never stole as many bases again and couldn't stay healthy

 

Koji didn't have a career year. He had an all time year, quite possibly the best year of any reliever, EVER. And this from a guy who never saved more than 13 games in his career prior to 2013. He remained good, but not that great, for two more seasons before becoming average and retiring

 

And two of your starters had career seasons as well in Buch and Doubront. So, yes, you had a quarter of your roster have career seasons with up to half having their 2-3 best season. A staggering 9 of your players faded into oblivion after 2013. And that isn't lucky? Seriously? Take it for what it is. Timing was amazing for everyone involved and if even one guy was off, the whole thing would have crashed down. And it did, the following two seasons

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Ah, Ortiz was just lucky that whenever he hit the ball, it landed in places where no fielders could catch them... Edited December 20, 2019 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[Bellhorn04]

And two of your starters had career seasons as well in Buch and Doubront. So, yes, you had a quarter of your roster have career seasons with up to half having their 2-3 best season. A staggering 9 of your players faded into oblivion after 2013. And that isn't lucky? Seriously? Take it for what it is. Timing was amazing for everyone involved and if even one guy was off, the whole thing would have crashed down. And it did, the following two seasons

 

It's usually the way it works when teams win championships, though. A lot of stuff goes your way. It doesn't happen two years in a row. So we have no back to back WS winners any more.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

There's not even a debate here. Every team that is good or great has players who have good to great seasons. Were the '27 Yankees just lucky they had two batters who each hit more home runs than any other player before in MLB history?

 

Were the Miracle Mets just lucky when they made all those great catches in the '69 Series to upset Baltimore? Nope, they were just better.

 

Was Cora lucky whenever he pinch hit Devers or Nunez or Moreland in the '18 postseason and they all came through? No, because that's why he made those moves. A lot of other managers try moves or non-moves that don't work out, and that's what separates the seasons.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yeah, but most WS winners don't flounder to the basement the next two seasons

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Or bounce back to finish first the next three years, including the best season in franchise history. Every year is different; it's just the way things are now in baseball.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Sox didn’t bounce back per se. they had an organizational change and decided to open their wallets. It’s not like those same players turned it around

 

Also, the Sox were the first team in 15 years to go from WS to last place, and the last one before Boston did it intentionally (98 Marlins)

[moonslav59]

So what you are saying is 6 of your guys had career seasons. Tazawa, Ells, Drew, and Napoli had their second best seasons. Pedey, a possible HOFer, had his 3rd best season. Ortiz, a possible HOFer, had his 5th best season. So 12 of your players and more importantly, 8 of your position players had one of their two best seasons of their career or were two HOF candidates having great years as well. More importantly, the guys you bought on clearance ended up finding a last gasp.

 

It's a far cry from your claim thagt most of the players had their career year or top 2-3 year.

 

BTW, it was not Buch's best year. He started only 16 games. It was his 2nd best WAR year.

 

Doubront had 2 full seasons- neither one all that great, but go ahead and call it a "career year".

 

Salty was benched in the playoffs, so it's not like he led us to the ring with a career year.

 

Breslow had some key moments, but he was not a top Sox player that year.

 

Yes, several players did very well, but it's no where near "most". If you go by OPS and ERA+, once could argue more had down years compared to the rest of their careers.

[moonslav59]

Moon, great job with the 2013 stats. The best players on those lucky Red Sox were their usual assets: Pedroia, Ellsbury and Ortiz, plus Victorino -- all veteran winners with rings. Their top three veteran starters -- Lester, Lackey and Buchholz -- all came into that season on a mission with something to prove.

 

It's the kind of motivation that often drives a team that is overlooked back into contention... and it's why pundits should always be cautious making predictions based on the previous season...

 

Certainly, a lot of things came together, and the team really gelled around the "Boston Strong" emotions, but I'm tired of hearing outright falsehoods proclaimed over and over until most people believe them.

 

The fact is, a small percentage of our team had top 3 seasons. Vic's and Pedey's high WARs were due mainly to top defense years, when most seem to remember everyone hit out of their norm that year. Nava & Salty had their best OPS in 2013- both were benched or saw their playing time greatly reduced in the playoffs. To claim we won because of those two is absurd. Uehara was a beast, no doubt, but even his out of this world season in 2013 was not really all that out of whack with his surrounding 3-4 seasons. Breslow? Really? Doubront? A Half a Buch?

 

OPS

9th best Pedey

8th Papi

5th Drew

4th Napoli

3rd Vic & Ellsbury

Middy fell off a cliff after 2012 and had way more PAs than Carp.

Gomes was almost 100 points lower than 2012.

 

The biggest stars of that era, Papi, Pedey, Ellsbury, Lester & Lackey did not have a top 2 year. Only Ellsbury & Pedey had top 3 based on bWAR.

 

Look at fWAR

Pedey

7.9 2011

6.4 2008

4.9 2016

4.9 2013

4.7 2009

4.3 2012

3.8 2014

3.7 2007

3.2 2010

Does 2013 really stand out?

Chronologically...

6.4 2008

4.7 2009

3.2 2010

7.9 2011

4.3 2012

4.9 2013

3.8 2014

2.3 2015

4.9 2016

Edited December 20, 2019 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Red Sox Claim Chris Mazza

By Jeff Todd | December 20, 2019 at 1:03pm CDT

 

The Red Sox have claimed righty Chris Mazza off waivers from the Mets, as MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand first reported (via Twitter). Mazza had recently been designated for assignment.

[moonslav59]

Bloom hard at work...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/red-sox-sign-jett-bandy.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

[moonslav59]

Top Remaining Free Agents (MLBTR's List):

Player (est contract)

5. Donaldson (75/3)

6. Bumgarner (72/4)

8. Castellano (58/4)

9. Ryu (54/3)

11. Ozuna (45/3)

22. W Harris 18/2

24. W Miley 16/2

25. C Dickerson 15/2

28. D Hudson 12/2

29. Av Garcia 12/2

33. Chirinos 10/2

34. J Castro 10/2

35. C Stammen 10/2

36. S Cishek 10/2

37. Puig 8/1

38. Encarnacion 8/1

39. A Wood 8/1

41. Holt 8/2

43. Betances 7/1

44. Calhoun 6/1

45. Akiyama 6/2

46. R Hill 6/1

48. Nova 6/1

49. P Strop

50. D Smyly 3/1

 

FAs signed (estimate>actual)

Cole 256/8>324/9

Rendon 235/7>245/7

Strasburg 180/6>245/7

Wheeler 100/5>118/5

Y Grandal 68/4>73/4

Odorizzi 51/3> 17.8/1 QO accepted

Gregorius 44/3>14/1

Will Smith 42/4>40/3

Keuchel 39/3>55.5/3

C Hamels 30/2> 18/1

Abreu 28/2> 17.8/1 accepted QO

Pineda 22/2>20/2

Moustakas 20/2>64/4

KGibson 18/2>30/3

TRoark 18/2>24/2

Teheran 18/2>

Pomeranz 16/2>34/4

D'Arnaud 14/2>16/2

C Martin 14/2>14/2

Kendrick 12/2>6.25/1

Porcello 11/1>10/1

Gradner 10/1>12.5/1

Wainwright 8/1>5/1

Lindblom 8/2>9.1/3

Wacha 6/1>3/1

 

[Bellhorn04]

Top Remaining Free Agents (MLBTR's List):

Player (est contract)

5. Donaldson (75/3)

6. Bumgarner (72/4)

8. Castellano (58/4)

9. Ryu (54/3)

11. Ozuna (45/3)

22. W Harris 18/2

24. W Miley 16/2

25. C Dickerson 15/2

28. D Hudson 12/2

29. Av Garcia 12/2

33. Chirinos 10/2

34. J Castro 10/2

35. C Stammen 10/2

36. S Cishek 10/2

37. Puig 8/1

38. Encarnacion 8/1

39. A Wood 8/1

41. Holt 8/2

43. Betances 7/1

44. Calhoun 6/1

45. Akiyama 6/2

46. R Hill 6/1

48. Nova 6/1

49. P Strop

50. D Smyly 3/1

 

FAs signed (estimate>actual)

Cole 256/8>324/9

Rendon 235/7>245/7

Strasburg 180/6>245/7

Wheeler 100/5>118/5

Y Grandal 68/4>73/4

Odorizzi 51/3> 17.8/1 QO accepted

Gregorius 44/3>14/1

Will Smith 42/4>40/3

Keuchel 39/3>55.5/3

C Hamels 30/2> 18/1

Abreu 28/2> 17.8/1 accepted QO

Pineda 22/2>20/2

Moustakas 20/2>64/4

KGibson 18/2>30/3

TRoark 18/2>24/2

Teheran 18/2>

Pomeranz 16/2>34/4

D'Arnaud 14/2>16/2

C Martin 14/2>14/2

Kendrick 12/2>6.25/1

Porcello 11/1>10/1

Gradner 10/1>12.5/1

Wainwright 8/1>5/1

Lindblom 8/2>9.1/3

Wacha 6/1>3/1

 

 

Bum and Miley are signed.

[moonslav59]

Bum and Miley are signed.

 

Yes, I just copied MLBTR's (unupdated) page.

[jacksonianmarch]

Teheran goes to Anaheim, Keuchel to CWS. 2 more NLers from last year that move to the AL. The shift of power is real. If Donaldson comes to Texas or the Twins then you've got another. The AL is going for it this year