A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

I am surprised at the glacial pace of the sox' offseason, to be totally honest. Bloom is the kind of guy who thinks outside the box, but in this case the box is pretty clear. You gotta shed payroll. He hasn't done any payroll shedding to this point and has filled none of his openings on the market. The sox tendered Bradley, so they are stuck with him for now unless someone thinks he is a bargain as a rental at around $11-$13 mil, hint he is not. Based on the numbers, the sox are a JBJ over the first line, meaning they need to shed about $11 mil to get under the LT. If the plan is to get under by moving Bradley, then they need to get a prospect and not an MLBer in return or they will jump over the mark again. If the plan is to move Betts, then they're gonna be able to take big leaguers on, but they will also need to lower the asking price

 

We have no idea what's going on behind the scenes though.

[jacksonianmarch]

We have no idea what's going on behind the scenes though.

 

That's correct, and the winter meetings haven't started. I am really perplexed by the mixed messages, though. Sam Kennedy coming out and saying getting under the LT was a goal but not a mandate is absolutely a cover to keep the MLBPA happy. But then the sox go and tender JBJ, who is not worth the arb number he is gonna get and his projected price is the exact amount the sox are over the LT by. Really confusing stuff here. Yes, I think the sox deal JBJ, but I also think the sox might need to eat some money to get the best return. Usually that isn't an issue, but when the sox are striving to get under the LT, this makes no sense

[Bellhorn04]

That's correct, and the winter meetings haven't started. I am really perplexed by the mixed messages, though. Sam Kennedy coming out and saying getting under the LT was a goal but not a mandate is absolutely a cover to keep the MLBPA happy. But then the sox go and tender JBJ, who is not worth the arb number he is gonna get and his projected price is the exact amount the sox are over the LT by. Really confusing stuff here. Yes, I think the sox deal JBJ, but I also think the sox might need to eat some money to get the best return. Usually that isn't an issue, but when the sox are striving to get under the LT, this makes no sense

 

I didn't even realize they tendered JBJ. Oddly enough no one else here mentioned it, I don't think.

[Nick]

With your GM being Bloom, everyone is in play to deal

 

I like it....

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

May isn’t going anywhere. He’s pretty much locked into their rotation. You’re not getting Smith either, he’s gonna be their opening day catcher. Joc is on the block, but he’s another one year rental, so it wouldn’t make much sense unless you’re trying to build a Delmon Young tree (possible).

 

That's ok, if no May and some combo of Ruiz/Lux/Verdugo, then no Mookie. This writer echoes exactly the kind of return I expect the Sox and Sox fans to demand. Otherwise, we keep our star status quo for 2020. And I don't want anything to do with Joc Pederson, either -- the HR derby winner on BP meatballs, who can't start on a contender's outfield. Boston has enough lefty-hitting outfielders who can't hit lefty pitching, and Joc is even worse at .188 career.

[jacksonianmarch]

That's ok, if no May and some combo of Ruiz/Lux/Verdugo, then no Mookie. This writer echoes exactly the kind of return I expect the Sox and Sox fans to demand. Otherwise, we keep our star status quo for 2020. And I don't want anything to do with Joc Pederson, either -- the HR derby winner on BP meatballs, who can't start on a contender's outfield. Boston has enough lefty-hitting outfielders who can't hit lefty pitching, and Joc is even worse at .188 career.

 

Then you risk losing Mookie for a 4th round pick. If you get under the LT, then you get a supp pick in the 30s. So many things need to go right for the sox to be world series contenders and so many things would have to go wrong on the Yankee and TB side that 2020 looks like a sox wash. If 2020 looked like a banner year, then you hang onto Mookie with both hands and enjoy the ride. Instead, by not dealing him, you risk losing him for what amounts to nothing in a season where you're not really expected to be great. You maximize your return for him.

 

The other thing you need to keep in mind is the receiving team's LT status. The value in a player's full year is the comp pick, but the comp pick isn't going to be as useful if the team receiving him is going to be over the lux tax.

[jacksonianmarch]

Also, Bloom is not a blow it up and get a ton of prospects kind of guy. Most of the deals that he made with established big leaguers involved major league talent coming back plus prospects. None of his deals were check marked in his favor at the time of the deal, but a lot of them ended up being that way.

 

Look at his most recent stunner

 

Archer for Glasnow and Meadows. Glasnow had been labeled a bust with the pirates. He was unable to stay healthy once he reached the bigs and then couldn't get anyone out when he was on the roster. Rays sprinkle some magic on him and he doesn't stay healthy, but he becomes incredibly effective and was solid in the POs. He should be fully healthy into 2020. Meadows was a highly rated prospect who had stalled at the upper levels of the Pirates system. He goes to TB, they make some adjustments and all of a sudden he is an all star. At the time, the deal looked terrible for the Rays. Stalled hitter and poorly performing frequently injured pitcher. Now, Archer has melted down in Pitt and the Rays have two all stars on the cheap.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I understand the risks. But if the Sox keep Betts, I expect to have a great time watching him in 2020.

 

If Joc Pederson is playing rightfield instead, I fully expect 2020 to be not as great or even good, and most likely frustrating, wasteful, divisive, and demoralizing. But Yankee fans will have a great time watching that.

[Bellhorn04]

Then you risk losing Mookie for a 4th round pick. If you get under the LT, then you get a supp pick in the 30s. So many things need to go right for the sox to be world series contenders and so many things would have to go wrong on the Yankee and TB side that 2020 looks like a sox wash. If 2020 looked like a banner year, then you hang onto Mookie with both hands and enjoy the ride. Instead, by not dealing him, you risk losing him for what amounts to nothing in a season where you're not really expected to be great. You maximize your return for him.

 

The other thing you need to keep in mind is the receiving team's LT status. The value in a player's full year is the comp pick, but the comp pick isn't going to be as useful if the team receiving him is going to be over the lux tax.

 

If we don't trade Mookie this offseason and the team stinks, we trade him at the deadline, obviously.

[jacksonianmarch]

I understand the risks. But if the Sox keep Betts, I expect to have a great time watching him in 2020.

 

If Joc Pederson is playing rightfield instead, I fully expect 2020 to be not as great or even good, and most likely frustrating, wasteful, divisive, and demoralizing. But Yankee fans will have a great time watching that.

 

Yankee fans are going to enjoy 2020 regardless. We are squarely in our window right now. The sox window has passed. Let's put it this way, I sincerely hope Mookie is patrolling RF for the sox in 2020. That means Bloom couldn't make his magic happen in a trade and the sox are going to either pay through the nose for him for the next decade or lose him for nothing

[jacksonianmarch]

If we don't trade Mookie this offseason and the team stinks, we trade him at the deadline, obviously.

 

Where you better hope a major contender lost their stud OFer in year. That is the only way the sox get a better return at the deadline vs now. That is why Machado returned so much, Seager went down. But still, Machado's return was more about volume than substance. Bloom isn't the kind of guy to make that type of deal and just get a huge load of prospects with one of them being top 100. I will tell you this, if Mookie gets dealt, sox fans will be entirely displeased with the return immediately. This is the Bloom way. Returns are never flashy

[Bellhorn04]

Where you better hope a major contender lost their stud OFer in year. That is the only way the sox get a better return at the deadline vs now. That is why Machado returned so much, Seager went down. But still, Machado's return was more about volume than substance. Bloom isn't the kind of guy to make that type of deal and just get a huge load of prospects with one of them being top 100. I will tell you this, if Mookie gets dealt, sox fans will be entirely displeased with the return immediately. This is the Bloom way. Returns are never flashy

 

Archer for Glasnow and Meadows was pretty sweet.

[notin]

If we don't trade Mookie this offseason and the team stinks, we trade him at the deadline, obviously.

 

If the Sox don't trade Mookie, the goal (but not mandate) of resetting is out the window, unless they can accomplish the far more difficult task of moving either Price or Eovaldi. If they cannot reset, the next offseason - the one with Betts, Springer, and few intriguing pitchers - might also be off the table...

[Bellhorn04]

If the Sox don't trade Mookie, the goal (but not mandate) of resetting is out the window, unless they can accomplish the far more difficult task of moving either Price or Eovaldi. If they cannot reset, the next offseason - the one with Betts, Springer, and few intriguing pitchers - might also be off the table...

 

I'm on record that the value of the re-set is overblown anyway. Especially with the current CBA expiring after 2021.

[notin]

That's correct, and the winter meetings haven't started. I am really perplexed by the mixed messages, though. Sam Kennedy coming out and saying getting under the LT was a goal but not a mandate is absolutely a cover to keep the MLBPA happy. But then the sox go and tender JBJ, who is not worth the arb number he is gonna get and his projected price is the exact amount the sox are over the LT by. Really confusing stuff here. Yes, I think the sox deal JBJ, but I also think the sox might need to eat some money to get the best return. Usually that isn't an issue, but when the sox are striving to get under the LT, this makes no sense

 

That hasn't happened yet. More than likely it's just a statement made so they can trade him with the appearance that, if nothing else, they will keep him. If they announced they would non-tender him, why would anyone want to trade for him knowing he will be available for 1) no prospects or players and 2) likely less money after the non-tender deadline?

 

If the Sox cannot work out a trade for Bradley and it comes time, they are still likely to non-tender him IMO...

[notin]

I'm on record that the value of the re-set is overblown anyway. Especially with the current CBA expiring after 2021.

 

And that might be Bloom's opinion as well. Although it is possible that the new CBA is less friendly to teams that spend heavily...

[notin]

Where you better hope a major contender lost their stud OFer in year. That is the only way the sox get a better return at the deadline vs now. That is why Machado returned so much, Seager went down. But still, Machado's return was more about volume than substance. Bloom isn't the kind of guy to make that type of deal and just get a huge load of prospects with one of them being top 100. I will tell you this, if Mookie gets dealt, sox fans will be entirely displeased with the return immediately. This is the Bloom way. Returns are never flashy

 

I'm sure the Rays fans were disappointed to get Glasnow and Meadows for a mediocre Chris Archer...

[moonslav59]

That's correct, and the winter meetings haven't started. I am really perplexed by the mixed messages, though. Sam Kennedy coming out and saying getting under the LT was a goal but not a mandate is absolutely a cover to keep the MLBPA happy. But then the sox go and tender JBJ, who is not worth the arb number he is gonna get and his projected price is the exact amount the sox are over the LT by. Really confusing stuff here. Yes, I think the sox deal JBJ, but I also think the sox might need to eat some money to get the best return. Usually that isn't an issue, but when the sox are striving to get under the LT, this makes no sense

 

They may trade JBJ and have current offers, so maybe you are reading too much into this.

[Bellhorn04]

And that might be Bloom's opinion as well. Although it is possible that the new CBA is less friendly to teams that spend heavily...

 

There may not even be a 2022 season if that's what owners are pushing for.

[moonslav59]

There may not even be a 2022 season if that's what owners are pushing for.

 

Now, that would be an indisputable "cliff!"

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yankee fans are going to enjoy 2020 regardless. We are squarely in our window right now. The sox window has passed. Let's put it this way, I sincerely hope Mookie is patrolling RF for the sox in 2020. That means Bloom couldn't make his magic happen in a trade and the sox are going to either pay through the nose for him for the next decade or lose him for nothing

 

Yankee fans I talk to also know they won't win a title with Sanchez behind the plate, they're stuck with Stanton, and their lineup is righty-heavy. Schwarber would be a perfect DH in Yankee Stadium, but luckily Epstein knows that and wouldn't want to be responsible for putting him in pinstripes.

[notin]

There may not even be a 2022 season if that's what owners are pushing for.

 

I don't think that building a competitive team for under $208million is such a crazy task. Plenty of other teams do it. But for some reason, Red Sox fans cannot envision winning without spending.

 

Sure, a GM like Dombrowski cannot win without spending. But that doesn't make it impossible...

[notin]

Yankee fans I talk to also know they won't win a title with Sanchez behind the plate, they're stuck with Stanton, and their lineup is righty-heavy. Schwarber would be a perfect DH in Yankee Stadium, but luckily Epstein knows that and wouldn't want to be responsible for putting him in pinstripes.

 

Also, how many DHs do the Yankees need? Stanton might find himself in that role due to some physical limitations. Sanchez really belongs there. And they still have Andujar and Frazier looking for a place on the field where they are not complete detriments, but both do slot in perfectly as DHs.

 

Maybe one of these guys can grab a 1B mitt. But even then, and even if Stanton stays in the OF and Sanchez behind the plate, they still don't need a DH...

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think that building a competitive team for under $208million is such a crazy task. Plenty of other teams do it. But for some reason, Red Sox fans cannot envision winning without spending.

 

Sure, a GM like Dombrowski cannot win without spending. But that doesn't make it impossible...

 

That's just one part of the issue though.

 

The other is that teams like the Red Sox can spend $200 million plus and still make money and have the franchise value grow. So shouldn't they spend that money? The alternative is to pocket it.

 

We know that they're not going to reduce prices.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think that building a competitive team for under $208million is such a crazy task. Plenty of other teams do it. But for some reason, Red Sox fans cannot envision winning without spending.

 

Sure, a GM like Dombrowski cannot win without spending. But that doesn't make it impossible...

 

Since I'm still somewhat in 'defend poor Dave' mode...

 

Have Theo and Ben won anything with small payrolls?

[notin]

Since I'm still somewhat in 'defend poor Dave' mode...

 

Have Theo and Ben won anything with small payrolls?

 

Point?

 

I never said "small payroll." I said "less than $208 million."

 

Did either have a payroll in excess of $208 million when they won?

[Bellhorn04]

Point?

 

I never said "small payroll." I said "less than $208 million."

 

Did either have a payroll in excess of $208 million when they won?

 

Why is the $208 million figure important?

[notin]

Why is the $208 million figure important?

 

Because that is the current goal (but not a mandate)...

[Slasher9]

Since I'm still somewhat in 'defend poor Dave' mode...

 

Have Theo and Ben won anything with small payrolls?

 

they spent big money but also figured out a way to build the Farm at the same time.

thanks Dave!

[Bellhorn04]

Because that is the current goal (but not a mandate)...

 

You said 'a GM like Dombrowski cannot win without spending'.

 

That may be so. But it's also been true of Theo, Ben and Cashman.

 

Does that fact make them bad at what they do? That's my question to you.