A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[notin]

I thought the same thing. This guy is always hurt. He's worse than Buchholz.

 

Unless he can offer some tips on recovery or knows some really good doctors...

[kenmeister]

I thought the same thing. This guy is always hurt. He's worse than Buchholz.

 

Oh yikes you guys are right. I hadn't followed him last year. Only 13 starts and 58 innings. But at least his ERA was still 2.45. I guess it all depends on the expense. For a $2 million pick up he's worth a flyer.

[moonslav59]

Oh yikes you guys are right. I hadn't followed him last year. Only 13 starts and 58 innings. But at least his ERA was still 2.45. I guess it all depends on the expense. For a $2 million pick up he's worth a flyer.

 

We might be tight on every dollar.

 

He really does not offer us the two things we might need:

 

1) A bridge to 2021 player

2) A longer term player as part of the rebuilding

 

A third could be added: Innings needed.

[moonslav59]

The Fall soxprospects.com rankings are out:

 

https://soxprospects.com

 

(Note: Chavis & DHern graduated, so + 2 is essentially staying even)

 

1. Casas

2. Mata +8 from April

3. Groome +3

4. Jimenez +12

5. Dalbec -1

6. Duran +7

7. Houck -2

8. Noah Song (NR)

9. Chatham -1

10. T Ward (NR)

11. R Zeferajahn (NR)

12. Aldo Ramirez (NR)

13. Matthew Lugo (NR)

14. Chris Murphey (NR)

15. N Decker -3

16. Cameron Cannon (NR)

17. Brayan Bello (NR)

18. Antoni Flores -11

19. Ceddanne Rafaela (NR)

20. Marcus Wilson (NR)

 

Other notables:

24. Feltman

27. Shawaryn

32. Fitzgerald

42. D Reyes

45. Ockimey

52. K Hart

58. Yusniel Padron-Artiles

 

 

 

[notin]

Imagine how high Groome will be ranked when he actually pitches!!

[harmony]

The Red Sox reportedly sign 20-year-old Taiwanese righthander Chih-Jung Liu:

 

[moonslav59]

Imagine how high Groome will be ranked when he actually pitches!!

 

I see two possibilities:

 

1) Our farm is so weak, we have to put a totally unproven, operated on player in our 3 slot.

 

2) He is really good and just need to prove it.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox reportedly sign 20-year-old Taiwanese righthander Chih-Jung Liu:

 

 

Maybe he should be number 3.

[notin]

Maybe he should be number 3.

 

He has a 98mph fastball. That might get him to #3...

[moonslav59]

He has a 98mph fastball. That might get him to #3...

 

I'm sure that's part of the potential calculation.

 

I hope they are right. We could use a SP'er from the farm. It's been a while.

[moonslav59]

My top 10 (not that I know more than soxprospects.com):

1. Casas

2. Mata

3. Ward

4. Dalbec

5. Jimenez

6. Groome

7. Chatham

8. Houck

9. Song

10. Padron-Artiles

 

 

[Kimmi]

That maybe true but I like both Houston/Nationals starters over Yankees.

 

I 100% agree.

[Kimmi]

That just can't be true. Show me that data.

 

(Look, I mentioned wins are not necessarily the best way to set the true rankings of who were the best teams making the playoffs, but the numbers I presented alone, shows a very cleat correlation between season wins and postseason wins. The numbers are clear.)

 

Your numbers do not show a very clear correlation. You posted some anecdotal data to support your opinion. Showing a statistical correlation is a different story.

 

The factor that has the highest correlation to post season wins is regular season wins, but even that correlation is pretty weak.

 

We will have to agree to disagree on this.

[Kimmi]

Luck does play a role, and sometimes teams that played poorly most of the year get it together or make a big trade and actually get better than their record indicates, but the larger aspect of who wins is who is better.

 

The better teams have a better chance of winning a 5 or 7 game series.

 

Luck plays a larger role in a short series, including 5 or 7 games, than I think most people realize. Yes, talent and skill are important too, but when you're talking about one series, randomness often trumps anything else.

[Kimmi]

No, I agree that randomness is a big factor.

 

I just think saying it's all luck once you get to the playoffs is overstating it.

 

No, it's not all luck. But it's enough luck that it trumps talent.

[moonslav59]

Your numbers do not show a very clear correlation. You posted some anecdotal data to support your opinion. Showing a statistical correlation is a different story.

 

The factor that has the highest correlation to post season wins is regular season wins, but even that correlation is pretty weak.

 

We will have to agree to disagree on this.

 

I never said the winningest teams always win, but there is a clear correaltion, and it's not "anecdotal evidence."

 

You can argue my sample size is too small, maybe, but I am trying to capture the state of MLB today not many years ago.

 

Go ahead and throw out the wild card game and make it the top 4 vs the bottom 4, and if it was a pure "crap shoot" (not that you are saying it is a 100% crap shoot), you'd expect something close to a 50% break down of WS attendees and winners.

 

66% of the teams that go to the WS are top 4. That's is pretty far from 50-50. Yes, it's closer to 50-50 than 100-0, but it is clearly a significant correlation.

 

The 73% winning it all number, which could be 75%, if the Astros win this year is what I was really arguing, and winning it all is very far from a crap shoot.

 

73% (11 of the last 15) is a very clear correlation.

 

[notin]

Luck plays a larger role in a short series, including 5 or 7 games, than I think most people realize. Yes, talent and skill are important too, but when you're talking about one series, randomness often trumps anything else.

 

Who knew Andrew Luck was so influential?

[a700hitter]

No, it's not all luck. But it's enough luck that it trumps talent.

That rarely happens.

[moonslav59]

He has a 98mph fastball. That might get him to #3...

 

He moved up from #7 to #3 while pitching just 4 IP the last 2 years.

 

True, Chavis & DHern graduated, but still.

 

My point was more about the lack of other prospects looking good enough to pass him or just stay ahead of him, where they were before the season started.

 

We had some guys move up that show promise, but nobody that is getting the attention of national ranking services.

 

Thaddeus Ward

Gilberto Jimenez

Noah Song

(Mata moved up from #10 to #2.)

 

I'm trying to be optimistic, but it's not easy.

 

[moonslav59]

Possible Free Agents This Winter

 

2020 MLB free agents by position

WWW.MLB.COM

---

Although a number of star players signed contract extensions before the 2019 season commenced instead of testing the open market this offseason, the current free-agent class still included many interesting names. Below, you'll find the list of this year's crop of notable free agents. The list will be updated throughout

[kenmeister]

Possible Free Agents This Winter

 

2020 MLB free agents by position

WWW.MLB.COM

---

Although a number of star players signed contract extensions before the 2019 season commenced instead of testing the open market this offseason, the current free-agent class still included many interesting names. Below, you'll find the list of this year's crop of notable free agents. The list will be updated throughout

 

Assuming JD opts out and they (somehow) get rid of JBJ, how much money can they spend? I ask before I start posting ridiculous things like, "Hey, Anthony Rendon is available!"

[Slasher9]

Assuming JD opts out and they (somehow) get rid of JBJ, how much money can they spend? I ask before I start posting ridiculous things like, "Hey, Anthony Rendon is available!"

 

we wont sign anyone this offseason. at least not anyone you rate as A+ quality. we are resetting. look for 2020 offseason for spending.

[jad]

That rarely happens.

 

Pedro stays in longer than most think he should. He throws a good pitch to Posada who barely makes contact and gets a bloop hit to center. Had Pedro's pitch been a bit worse, and had Posada made decent contact, it would have been a lazy fly-ball to center and Grady Little would have been hailed a genius. As it was, he got fired ...

[Bellhorn04]

Pedro stays in longer than most think he should. He throws a good pitch to Posada who barely makes contact and gets a bloop hit to center. Had Pedro's pitch been a bit worse, and had Posada made decent contact, it would have been a lazy fly-ball to center and Grady Little would have been hailed a genius. As it was, he got fired ...

 

I have set up a new thread for the 'playoffs are a crapshoot' topic.

[Slasher9]

Pedro stays in longer than most think he should. He throws a good pitch to Posada who barely makes contact and gets a bloop hit to center. Had Pedro's pitch been a bit worse, and had Posada made decent contact, it would have been a lazy fly-ball to center and Grady Little would have been hailed a genius. As it was, he got fired ...

 

not to mention the 2 hr's by the now admitted juicer giambi that barely cleared the wall. no juice = flyouts.

that 2003 ALCS was a complete cheat job by NYY.

but it made 2004 that much sweeter....

[kenmeister]

we wont sign anyone this offseason. at least not anyone you rate as A+ quality. we are resetting. look for 2020 offseason for spending.

 

It seems like we're always waiting to shed bad contracts. First it was Beckett and Crawford. Then after we ditched them, we took on the Ramirez and Sandoval contracts. Now we're (probably) stuck until the Price & Sale contracts end.

[notin]

It seems like we're always waiting to shed bad contracts. First it was Beckett and Crawford. Then after we ditched them, we took on the Ramirez and Sandoval contracts. Now we're (probably) stuck until the Price & Sale contracts end.

 

Price’s contract is pretty awful.

 

Although if you use the trade values on baseballtradevalues.com, he could theoretically be dealt straight up for Chris Davis or Wil Myers. Both have lower AAV’s than Price, but Davis is the unquestioned worst player in MLB.

 

Myers, on the other hand, actually makes sense. His AAV is $18mill less than Price’s, and he’s owed $30mill less overall. And, depending on the fates of Bradley and Betts, the Sox are likely to need outfielders, and have none in the minors that can step in. And San Diego has a glut of outfielders, but apparently is hoping to add a veteran SP to go with their inexperienced rotation.

 

Price for Myers. Book it...

[moonslav59]

Assuming JD opts out and they (somehow) get rid of JBJ, how much money can they spend? I ask before I start posting ridiculous things like, "Hey, Anthony Rendon is available!"

 

Getting rid of JBJ would put us just under the line, so the $22M saved on JD would be the spending budget, unless we dump more salary somewhere else.

[moonslav59]

Pedro stays in longer than most think he should. He throws a good pitch to Posada who barely makes contact and gets a bloop hit to center. Had Pedro's pitch been a bit worse, and had Posada made decent contact, it would have been a lazy fly-ball to center and Grady Little would have been hailed a genius. As it was, he got fired ...

 

I've never faulted Grady for that choice.

 

Pedro was the best pitcher the Sox ever had. I'll take him at 75% than anyone else.

[notin]

I've never faulted Grady for that choice.

 

Pedro was the best pitcher the Sox ever had. I'll take him at 75% than anyone else.

 

Not to mention, the Sox bullpen was their main problem that entire season, and the brief turnaround of Timlin in the postseason should not have erased that fact.

 

Leaving Pedro in was probably the smartest choice at the time...

Edited October 24, 2019 by notin