A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[harmony]

MLB Trade Rumors projects 2020 arbitration salaries for 12 Red Sox players, including Jackie Bradley Jr. at $11 million, Eduardo Rodriguez at $9.5 million and Andrew Benintendi at $4.9 million:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/mlb-arbitration-salaries-2020.html

[moonslav59]

MLB Trade Rumors projects 2020 arbitration salaries for 12 Red Sox players, including Jackie Bradley Jr. at $11 million, Eduardo Rodriguez at $9.5 million and Andrew Benintendi at $4.9 million:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/mlb-arbitration-salaries-2020.html

 

So, assuming these projections are close enough, here's the 2020 Sox budget by tax dollars:

 

Arb Estimates: About $72M

27.7 Betts

11.0 JBJ (Likely trade or non tender)

9.5 ERod

4.9 Beni

3.4 Workman

3.0 Barnes

3.0 Owings (Likely gone)

2.8 Leon (Likely gone or brought back for $1M)

1.6 Hembree (trade/non tender?)

1.5 Wright (trade/non tender?)

1.0 G Hernandez (Likely gone)

0.7 M Hernandez

 

Red "Keepers"= ~$49M (w/ Leon at $1M= $50M)

 

Total: ~$50M 6 arb players + maybe Leon

 

Under Contract:

31.0 Price

25.6 Sale

22.0 JD (if does not opt out)

20.0 Bogey

17.0 Eovaldi

13.8 Pedey

4.5 Vazquez

 

Total: $134M for 6 players under contract ($112M for 5 w/o JD)

 

Arb+ Contract= $184M

 

+$15 Player benefits= ~$199M for 12 players.

+$8M Other 14 MLB players at min salary

 

$207M for 26 players on MLB roster

+$2M for 14 minor league players on 40 man roster

 

$209M Total (The Luxury Tax line is $208M.)

 

Without signing anyone, we can possibly and barely squeeze under the tax line.

 

 

[moonslav59]

MLB Trade Rumors projects 2020 arbitration salaries for 12 Red Sox players, including Jackie Bradley Jr. at $11 million, Eduardo Rodriguez at $9.5 million and Andrew Benintendi at $4.9 million:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/mlb-arbitration-salaries-2020.html

 

Let's see how close my projections were to these:

 

MLBTR Player My Projection

27.7 Betts $28M

11.0 JBJ $10M

9.5 ERod $9M

4.9 Beni $4M

3.4 Workman $3M

3.0 Barnes $3M

1.6 Hembree $2M

1.5 Wright $1M

0.7 Marco $1M

 

(Note: This was one arb projection I made on 9/2/19. I may have had different numbers on other posts.)

[cp176]

You are right!!!

[Swiharts Ghost]

You are right!!!

 

What happens if Pedey retires ?

[illinoisredsox]

What happens if Pedey retires ?

 

Then his salary comes off the books.

 

But he has no reason to retire, even though he will never play again, nor should he. It’s not like he screwed up his knee doing something stupid in the off season. He was hurt on the field. He had a team friendly contract early on; overall he left money on the table when he signed the long term deal to stay in Boston. He’s owed x and he will be paid x. Thinking it will be any other way is stupid.

[notin]

This Pedroia thing has been beaten to death. He isn’t retiring and the Sox will have to deal with spending a mere $194 million instead of $208mill. It happens. Texas has the same thing with Prince Fielder’s contract.

 

Personally I’d rather Price retired...

[moonslav59]

Then his salary comes off the books.

 

But he has no reason to retire, even though he will never play again, nor should he. It’s not like he screwed up his knee doing something stupid in the off season. He was hurt on the field. He had a team friendly contract early on; overall he left money on the table when he signed the long term deal to stay in Boston. He’s owed x and he will be paid x. Thinking it will be any other way is stupid.

 

Very true. There's no reason to expect or hope he retires, but then again, I felt the same about Dempster.

[moonslav59]

This Pedroia thing has been beaten to death. He isn’t retiring and the Sox will have to deal with spending a mere $194 million instead of $208mill. It happens. Texas has the same thing with Prince Fielder’s contract.

 

Personally I’d rather Price retired...

 

Don't start another 100 pages on Price choosing to retire!

[moonslav59]

So, maybe the most likely players to be traded or non tendered:

 

Owings

Gorkys

Leon

Wright

Hembree

JBJ

 

Sell high?

Walden

Taylor

Chavis

 

Budget, reset & rebuild?

JD (if he doesn't opt out)

Betts

 

Not likely any takers unless we include a bunch of cash:

Price

Eovaldi

(Sale?)

 

Total overhaul looking at 2022 (highly unlikely):

ERod

Workman

Barnes

(Beni?)

[Nick]

Soooooo, everyone here would have been okay with giving Kelly 3 year $25M and Kimbrel 3 yr $48M (actually it was $43M due to short season in 2019)? I say we dodged a bullet.

 

Do you think there are takers out there for either one without salary concession?

 

As Kimmi has stated often, bullpen is crap shoot. You never know what you're going to get. Good for DD to get the mileage out of Kimbrel even though he was clearly on downside at the end of 2018.

 

Go back and check the history of Sox bullpen acquisitions. We've struck out quite a bit.

[Nick]

So, maybe the most likely players to be traded or non tendered:

 

Owings

Gorkys

Leon

Wright

Hembree

JBJ

 

Sell high?

Walden

Taylor

Chavis

 

Budget, reset & rebuild?

JD (if he doesn't opt out)

Betts

 

Not likely any takers unless we include a bunch of cash:

Price

Eovaldi

(Sale?)

 

Total overhaul looking at 2022 (highly unlikely):

ERod

Workman

Barnes

(Beni?)

 

We all bitch about decimating our farm. Why in the hell would you trade Chavis at this point? Or Dalbec? Or anyone in the farm? I say keep them all.

 

Trade veterans for younger major league ready players if you must.

 

Acquire small market type free agents. I'm not talking about 2 year $15M either. I'm talking about 2 year $8M type guys. Until of course you're ready to win the World Series. Then you go get G Cole type if available.

 

I'll watch Devers, Chavis, Marco and other young players. Give them all a shot.

 

NEVER, EVER extend pitchers. Pay fair market value at the time of contract expiration (unless of course you trade him).

Edited October 10, 2019 by Nick

[oldtimer]

So, maybe the most likely players to be traded or non tendered:

 

Owings

Gorkys

Leon

Wright

Hembree

JBJ

 

Sell high?

Walden

Taylor

Chavis

 

Budget, reset & rebuild?

JD (if he doesn't opt out)

Betts

 

Not likely any takers unless we include a bunch of cash:

Price

Eovaldi

(Sale?)

 

Total overhaul looking at 2022 (highly unlikely):

ERod

Workman

Barnes

(Beni?)

 

To me, getting rid of proven and fairly young players would be folly. I would definitely keep Devers, Vaz, Bogaerts and E-Rod. I would like to keep Mookie but if he goes to the highest bidder in 2021, one has to ask if $35 mil for 8 to 10 years is too risky. Beni is another player who looks like his value at a lighter weight would be defense and offensively a high OBP guy. He wasn't that solid at either in 2019 and one wonders if the lighter weight he aspires to and a new hitting coach can up his value.

 

JDM may go on his own and if he does the budget constraints get easier but will have to fill the DH role with less expensive. Barnes has been a good asset at times but also seems to blow up under pressure. I would trade him now.

 

I am not in favor of blowing the team up but the albatross of generous contracts for underperforming asset may be with us for years to come. Anyone cate to speculate on how many games Sale, Price and Eovaldi will win for us in 2020? My guess is about 30 total and that is a far cry from keeping us competitive.

[Bellhorn04]

Soooooo, everyone here would have been okay with giving Kelly 3 year $25M and Kimbrel 3 yr $48M (actually it was $43M due to short season in 2019)? I say we dodged a bullet.

 

Do you think there are takers out there for either one without salary concession?

 

As Kimmi has stated often, bullpen is crap shoot. You never know what you're going to get. Good for DD to get the mileage out of Kimbrel even though he was clearly on downside at the end of 2018.

 

Go back and check the history of Sox bullpen acquisitions. We've struck out quite a bit.

 

Kimbrel was the best bullpen acquisition in team history.

 

DD may have gone overboard with what he gave up, but the contract itself was a gem.

[jacksonianmarch]

I don’t think people here killed DD for losing Kelly and Kimbrel. I think people here killed him for not replacing them, and they were right.

 

It seemed everyone here wants to keep ERod, but you’re staring at the same predicament with him as you are with Betts, just a year sooner. And if your team is getting under the cap for 2020, chances are that you’re gonna punt 2020 and hence only have one year of ERod before he hits the market and can be had by anyone. If Henry is giving a mandate to get under the first lux tax line for 2020, then you have to deal ERod

[jacksonianmarch]

Very true. There's no reason to expect or hope he retires, but then again, I felt the same about Dempster.

 

Dumpster was physically able to play, just didn’t want to. Pedey would give his left nut to play, he just isn’t physically able

[Bellhorn04]

It seemed everyone here wants to keep ERod, but you’re staring at the same predicament with him as you are with Betts, just a year sooner. And if your team is getting under the cap for 2020, chances are that you’re gonna punt 2020 and hence only have one year of ERod before he hits the market and can be had by anyone. If Henry is giving a mandate to get under the first lux tax line for 2020, then you have to deal ERod

 

Relax, swami. They already said that re-setting is a goal, not a mandate.

 

And even if they do re-set, it's not mandatory to punt 2020.

 

Plus E-Rod can be dealt at the deadline or next offseason if they choose.

 

There are a lot of options. You know very well they're not trading him this offseason.

[cp176]

We all bitch about decimating our farm. Why in the hell would you trade Chavis at this point? Or Dalbec? Or anyone in the farm? I say keep them all.

 

Trade veterans for younger major league ready players if you must.

 

Acquire small market type free agents. I'm not talking about 2 year $15M either. I'm talking about 2 year $8M type guys. Until of course you're ready to win the World Series. Then you go get G Cole type if available.

 

I'll watch Devers, Chavis, Marco and other young players. Give them all a shot.

 

NEVER, EVER extend pitchers. Pay fair market value at the time of contract expiration (unless of course you trade him).

 

I've mentioned the same thing and got just about the same response as you did. All of a sudden it looks to be ok to trade guys who actually have a chance of making in ml baseball. For the record though, it wouldn't particularly bother me if either of these two guys get traded in hopes of upgrading our team. My question to this group really has been, who are the current ml impact newcomers that we traded away. We didn't really have all that much wheat in our system when DD took over. Outside of Moncada it is quite possible that the players traded will amount to not very much. You can't wait forever for a young player to develop.

[Bellhorn04]

Chavis looks so much like Middlebrooks 2.0 unfortunately. Tons of power but his K rate is brutal.

[notin]

Chavis looks so much like Middlebrooks 2.0 unfortunately. Tons of power but his K rate is brutal.

 

Maybe he is trying to impress Jenny Dell?

 

Also cut Chavis some slack. He walks about twice as often as Middlebrooks did...

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe he is trying to impress Jenny Dell?

 

Also cut Chavis some slack. He walks about twice as often as Middlebrooks did...

 

Will had the ungodly 5-1 ratio. Chavis was 4-1 overall, but from the end of May on he was 5-1.

[Slasher9]

We didn't really have all that much wheat in our system when DD took over. Outside of Moncada it is quite possible that the players traded will amount to not very much

 

amazing. every word of what you just said is wrong.

[notin]

Will had the ungodly 5-1 ratio. Chavis was 4-1 overall, but from the end of May on he was 5-1.

 

True but Chavis’ OBP was .322 in 382 PA. Middlebrooks never topped .280 in any season with that many plate appearances...

[notin]

My question to this group really has been, who are the current ml impact newcomers that we traded away. We didn't really have all that much wheat in our system when DD took over. Outside of Moncada it is quite possible that the players traded will amount to not very much. You can't wait forever for a young player to develop.

 

Ty Buttrey stepped right into the Angels’ bullpen and became an impact pitcher.

 

The Sox also need a SP. Don’t you think Kopech or Logan Allen could fill that role?

 

And of all the other trades, only Manny Margot is 25. Saying “none of them were impact players, so it was ok to deal them” is actually a reason to deal Dalbec. Bear in mind, he is older than Moncada, Kopech, Guerra, Allen, and Espinoza and done as much or less in MLB than all of them. And Margot is only 9 months older than Dalbec...

[moonslav59]

We all bitch about decimating our farm. Why in the hell would you trade Chavis at this point? Or Dalbec? Or anyone in the farm? I say keep them all.

 

Trade veterans for younger major league ready players if you must.

 

Acquire small market type free agents. I'm not talking about 2 year $15M either. I'm talking about 2 year $8M type guys. Until of course you're ready to win the World Series. Then you go get G Cole type if available.

 

I'll watch Devers, Chavis, Marco and other young players. Give them all a shot.

 

NEVER, EVER extend pitchers. Pay fair market value at the time of contract expiration (unless of course you trade him).

 

If you bundle Chavis with a vet and get a young player that is better than Chavis, how is that bad?

 

Chavis + Hembree for a better RP'er.

 

Chavis + Dalbec for a young 1Bman who can actually play 1B and has a better bat.

[moonslav59]

Dumpster was physically able to play, just didn’t want to. Pedey would give his left nut to play, he just isn’t physically able

 

Yes, but who knows why anyone would leave that much money on the table. It was a shock with Dempster, and it would be with Pedey, too. That was the point made.

[moonslav59]

Kimbrel was the best bullpen acquisition in team history.

 

DD may have gone overboard with what he gave up, but the contract itself was a gem.

 

It turned out the contract was okay to good, once the cost of top closers doubled in 2 years, however, I wouldn't call it a "gem".

[Slasher9]

What happens if Pedey retires ?

 

his wife divorces him.

[notin]

Yes, but who knows why anyone would leave that much money on the table. It was a shock with Dempster, and it would be with Pedey, too. That was the point made.

 

I can only think of two MLB players who walked away from guaranteed deals, and both walked away from only one year. Dempster and Gil Meche. So while it has happened, it’s incredibly unlikely.

 

It’s also possible Pedroia doesn’t think he’s done and will constantly be working towards a comeback. That seems more likely to me, although it’s not like I know him personally...

[moonslav59]

I've mentioned the same thing and got just about the same response as you did. All of a sudden it looks to be ok to trade guys who actually have a chance of making in ml baseball. For the record though, it wouldn't particularly bother me if either of these two guys get traded in hopes of upgrading our team. My question to this group really has been, who are the current ml impact newcomers that we traded away. We didn't really have all that much wheat in our system when DD took over. Outside of Moncada it is quite possible that the players traded will amount to not very much. You can't wait forever for a young player to develop.

 

It's not "all of a sudden." Stop, please.

 

THose who have been defending Ben and critical of DD on trading prospects are not against ever trading prospects, especially ones that may be blocked, may be over-rated (in our opinions) or who we want to maybe trade for another very young player at a higher need position.

 

Trading Dalbec for another prospect is is not the same as trading 4 for a vet.

 

Nobody is saying "wait forever" on every single prospect.

 

I'm glad we "waited" on Betts, Bogey & Devers.