A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[a700hitter]

1) I said "might."

2) I said Kimbrel OR Sale NOT Kimbrel AND Sale.

Was that you?

[jacksonianmarch]

I do not think our farm system is dead. We graduated two or three guys this year.

 

Hernandez looks like a fixture in the bullpen for the next five seasons.

 

Chavis is a key role player at worst.

 

In the pipeline we have houck, our future closer once he learns how to get lefties out.

 

Duran should replace Bradley.

 

Hopefully feltman snaps out of his year long funk,

 

The jewel of the system could be lugo. I think he could be a star down the road.

 

Your farm is dead. A dead farm produces flawed pieces but also produces next to no tradeable talent. The talent you use to replace your guys isn't just in your own system. But it is elsewhere and obtained with the talent in your system

 

DHern has some talent for sure. 17K/9IP is unreal. As is his 7BB/9IP. He has got to find the strike zone to be relevant.

 

Chavis is no longer part of your farm. He exhausted his rookie limits. That being said, what I saw of him is a guy who isn't suited for the type of baseball played now. He cannot hit a high fastball yet demolishes breaking pitches. Strange from a young guy. He is going to have to fix that huge hole in his swing or he will be extinguished.

 

Houck isn't a future closer. You cannot put 1.4 baserunners on base in the minors and magically become a dominant closer until you figure it out. He put 60 men on base by HBP or BB in 107IP. He is likely to end up in your pen next year, but he hasn't shown the ability to be a reliable anything

 

Duran didn't hit in AA. He has to hit in AA before you can even consider him as a potential major leaguer.

 

Feltman has sucked. He walks too many, he gives up too many homers, he gets hit harder than most closer types. He needs to not suck before you can consider him a possibility

 

Lugo is an 18 yr old position player who didn't get out of short season. He may be great. He may fizzle out. He isn't a jewel until he starts to hit.

[moonslav59]

Yeah . I wouldn't go crazy with the spending , but I would definitely try to keep Betts and Martinez . Lose Porcello , and try Hernandez there . Lose Panda , Nunez , Moreland ,Pearce , Leon , Wright and possibly JBJ . Go with Chavis , Marco and possibly Dalbec . Just have to wait out Pedroia . Hope for the best with Sale , Price and Eovaldi . Pick up a couple of bullpen arms . Stay competitive and if you go slightly over the cap , live with it .

 

Getting 2 pen arms will almost certainly put us over the first line. Resetting just one time saves tens of millions down the road.

[S5Dewey]

Getting 2 pen arms will almost certainly put us over the first line. Resetting just one time saves tens of millions down the road.

 

Is the goal now to save money, or to win?

[moonslav59]

Most teams don't keep that sustained level ad infinitum. The kids have to ... you know, perform. The Top 100 is not some immutable cast in stone list.

 

No, but it looks bad when compared to the other 29 teams, and with bad draft slots and low IFA bonus pools, it won't be easy to build it back up without trading a vet or two for prospects.

[moonslav59]

Is the goal now to save money, or to win?

 

To win in the long term is the easy choice.

[jacksonianmarch]

Here’s what you want. You want another window where you have a legit chance over a stretch to win a title. You don’t want to have a playoff caliber team if all breaks right but not a title contending team. You want to build a sustainable team. You do that by getting out of cap hell and replenishing your farm. All the teams that are making the playoffs did so by using their farm systems and ALL of these teams were top 10 in farm system rankings within the last 3 years.

[moonslav59]

Here’s what you want. You want another window where you have a legit chance over a stretch to win a title. You don’t want to have a playoff caliber team if all breaks right but not a title contending team. You want to build a sustainable team. You do that by getting out of cap hell and replenishing your farm. All the teams that are making the playoffs did so by using their farm systems and ALL of these teams were top 10 in farm system rankings within the last 3 years.

 

Us included. We were top 6 in farm rankings before DD came.

 

These days, it's not easy to build up the farm, unless you do one of these three things (4 if you count getting lucky):

1) Suck for a couple or more years to get top draft picks.

2) Trade stars for prospects, like the Dodger and Yanks have done, and we did with the ERod trade.

3) Have a great scouting and talent evaluation system in place and continuously find gems with lower picks.

 

It appears that nobody here wants to try #1, and I'd like to avoid it, if possible.

#2 means trading Betts and maybe more.

#3 looks great on paper, but where are these guys and why don't we ever find them?

 

We've done well in the past, when the rules favored us, and even the farm of 2015-2016 was boosted by rules and conditions that are no longer around.

 

Are we going to pin all our hopes on luck?

 

The idea is to try and get 5-15 prospects with a decent to good chance of being more than role players in the hopes that 3-6 come through. Right now, we might, and I stress the word might have 3-5 prospects in that category (most 2-3 years way), and we need 4-5 to come through in a big way. That's just not realistic. It pains me to say it, but I believe it's true.

[dgalehouse]

Do we really want to save billionaire John Henry a little money and suffer through one or more seasons of dismal baseball ? I know I don't . A baseball season is a long time . A good chunk of our very limited time on this mortal coil .

[moonslav59]

Do we really want to save billionaire John Henry a little money and suffer through one or more seasons of dismal baseball ? I know I don't . A baseball season is a long time . A good chunk of our very limited time on this mortal coil .

 

Of course losing sucks. This season sucked in many ways, but I still enjoyed watching all the games (well, most).

 

I plan on living a few more decades. I'm in for the long haul.

 

I happen to think we might not be too bad next year without signing a single FA. If we reset, we'll be better positioned for the next 2-3 years, at least. If we get two years in a row with draft picks between 10-20, instead of 27-30 or 40+ with the penalties, we can better position ourselves in years 3-8 from now. One down year should help us be better for many more years afterwards.

 

I know you believe the answer is always just have Henry spend more and more, and that would be great in many ways. If that happens, then yes, we can stay godo to very good for a longer window, but I happen to believe Henry does not want to be thought of as the modern George Steinbrenner or to continuously outspend most teams by 100-200% and other top spending teams by $20-50M every year. More power to him and us, if he does, but I'd feel like a hypocrite for all the crap I heaped on Yankee fans for decades only to watch us become the target of that same crap.

 

I'm not saying go frugal. Staying $1M under the luxury tax may still make us the 3rd or 4th highest paid team in 2020 is not poverty. Resetting the tax and then asking Henry to go over the line in 2021 and beyond makes much more sense when the taxes are way less due to the reset.

 

My position is based on the belief that I don't think Henry will stay over the limit forever, and to me, it makes more sense to reset in 2020, so we can spend and keep Betts in 2021 and others afterwards.

[dgalehouse]

Of course losing sucks. This season sucked in many ways, but I still enjoyed watching all the games (well, most).

 

I plan on living a few more decades. I'm in for the long haul.

 

I happen to think we might not be too bad next year without signing a single FA. If we reset, we'll be better positioned for the next 2-3 years, at least. If we get two years in a row with draft picks between 10-20, instead of 27-30 or 40+ with the penalties, we can better position ourselves in years 3-8 from now. One down year should help us be better for many more years afterwards.

 

I know you believe the answer is always just have Henry spend more and more, and that would be great in many ways. If that happens, then yes, we can stay godo to very good for a longer window, but I happen to believe Henry does not want to be thought of as the modern George Steinbrenner or to continuously outspend most teams by 100-200% and other top spending teams by $20-50M every year. More power to him and us, if he does, but I'd feel like a hypocrite for all the crap I heaped on Yankee fans for decades only to watch us become the target of that same crap.

 

I'm not saying go frugal. Staying $1M under the luxury tax may still make us the 3rd or 4th highest paid team in 2020 is not poverty. Resetting the tax and then asking Henry to go over the line in 2021 and beyond makes much more sense when the taxes are way less due to the reset.

 

My position is based on the belief that I don't think Henry will stay over the limit forever, and to me, it makes more sense to reset in 2020, so we can spend and keep Betts in 2021 and others afterwards.

 

Good luck with the few more decades thing .

[Larry Cook]

Your farm is dead. A dead farm produces flawed pieces but also produces next to no tradeable talent. The talent you use to replace your guys isn't just in your own system. But it is elsewhere and obtained with the talent in your system

 

DHern has some talent for sure. 17K/9IP is unreal. As is his 7BB/9IP. He has got to find the strike zone to be relevant.

 

Chavis is no longer part of your farm. He exhausted his rookie limits. That being said, what I saw of him is a guy who isn't suited for the type of baseball played now. He cannot hit a high fastball yet demolishes breaking pitches. Strange from a young guy. He is going to have to fix that huge hole in his swing or he will be extinguished.

 

Houck isn't a future closer. You cannot put 1.4 baserunners on base in the minors and magically become a dominant closer until you figure it out. He put 60 men on base by HBP or BB in 107IP. He is likely to end up in your pen next year, but he hasn't shown the ability to be a reliable anything

 

Duran didn't hit in AA. He has to hit in AA before you can even consider him as a potential major leaguer.

 

Feltman has sucked. He walks too many, he gives up too many homers, he gets hit harder than most closer types. He needs to not suck before you can consider him a possibility

 

Lugo is an 18 yr old position player who didn't get out of short season. He may be great. He may fizzle out. He isn't a jewel until he starts to hit.

 

Clearly the definition of the term “farm system” is too big for you. But by all means, keeping playing the short game, it’s had so much success for you guys over the last 15 years or so.

[Larry Cook]

Is the goal now to save money, or to win?

 

The goal is to build an organization capable of sustained success, including championships, year after year.

[dgalehouse]

The minor league system is appropriately called the farm . There comes a time when you have to harvest the crops ( prospects ) . You keep what you need for sustainment and market the rest for the best deal you can make . You can't hold on to them indefinitely . We have done very well with that . Had much success . Then , you need to sow the field all over again . Grow the next crop . That is where we have some problems . MLB has made it increasingly difficult to replenish the farm if you have been successful . You need to find a way to deal with that without deliberately being unsuccessful , aka tanking .

[jacksonianmarch]

The minor league system is appropriately called the farm . There comes a time when you have to harvest the crops ( prospects ) . You keep what you need for sustainment and market the rest for the best deal you can make . You can't hold on to them indefinitely . We have done very well with that . Had much success . Then , you need to sow the field all over again . Grow the next crop . That is where we have some problems . MLB has made it increasingly difficult to replenish the farm if you have been successful . You need to find a way to deal with that without deliberately being unsuccessful , aka tanking .

 

That’s the issue. Rebuilding your farm when successful isn’t as easy as it used to be. That being said, DD flubbed a couple drafts, did nothing on the IFA front and traded away anything with a pulse. There’s a reason why the Sox farm is 30th and the quote I saw printed was “there’s a wide gulf between 30 and 29”.

 

And yes, you do have limits. Henry could spend and spend and spend, but Fa ranks are meant to supplement, not build since you’re typically not going to get great value the entire deal. You build from within now

[moonslav59]

The minor league system is appropriately called the farm . There comes a time when you have to harvest the crops ( prospects ) . You keep what you need for sustainment and market the rest for the best deal you can make . You can't hold on to them indefinitely . We have done very well with that . Had much success . Then , you need to sow the field all over again . Grow the next crop . That is where we have some problems . MLB has made it increasingly difficult to replenish the farm if you have been successful . You need to find a way to deal with that without deliberately being unsuccessful , aka tanking .

 

The problem is, with the new rules in place for a few years, "sowing the filed" is way more difficult when your team is winning 3 years in a row and spending way over the tax line. Penalties, draft slots and limited IFA money all add up to us having the 30th ranked farm woth little hope in changing that by much, if we keep winning and spending.

[jacksonianmarch]

And the way around that is by picking AAA players who are blocked and underrated and trading for them. Also, dealing off your own blocked prospects for more IFA money and signing great talents with the bigger pool. There are ways to improve your depth beyond draft slot. DD didnt seem to give a s***

[moonslav59]

Good luck with the few more decades thing .

 

I just turned 60, and I'm getting myself in the best shape I've been in about 15 years. I like the idea of being strong 3-8 years from now.I happen to think that the more we try to "win now" by spending and spending, the harder it will be to rebuild the farm, and to me, the farm is the best way to insure long term success, either by keeping some or trading some, when needed most.

 

If Henry wants to spend 20-200% more than all other teams from here to eternity, that would certainly help us win more, and I'm not against that, but tehre are many ways to insure near constant success, and it's my opinion that having a decent farm is the best way.

 

Just saying Henry can spend more and we will "sow the fields again" is easy. Doing it is hard.

 

3 years ago, I heard many posters saying we'd "build the farm back up" just like the old days. Well, 3 years have gone by and our farm has gotten even worse than before NOT better, let alone "rebuilt" to a decent standard.

 

We have 2 or 3 guys, mostly 2-3 years away that may turn out very nice. The rest look like role players, at best. We will likely draft around 15th next spring and have a limited IFA pool, again. Great prospects don't fall down the draft board anymore due to signability issues. We haven't proven we can draft well with lower picks swince maybe the Betts draft. That was a long time ago, and until we prove we've improved our talent evaluation personnel, I'm thinking our farm will stay near #30 for a few more years.

[S5Dewey]

Of course losing sucks. This season sucked in many ways, but I still enjoyed watching all the games (well, most).

 

I plan on living a few more decades. I'm in for the long haul.

 

I happen to think we might not be too bad next year without signing a single FA. If we reset, we'll be better positioned for the next 2-3 years, at least. If we get two years in a row with draft picks between 10-20, instead of 27-30 or 40+ with the penalties, we can better position ourselves in years 3-8 from now. One down year should help us be better for many more years afterwards.

 

I know you believe the answer is always just have Henry spend more and more, and that would be great in many ways. If that happens, then yes, we can stay godo to very good for a longer window, but I happen to believe Henry does not want to be thought of as the modern George Steinbrenner or to continuously outspend most teams by 100-200% and other top spending teams by $20-50M every year. More power to him and us, if he does, but I'd feel like a hypocrite for all the crap I heaped on Yankee fans for decades only to watch us become the target of that same crap.

 

I'm not saying go frugal. Staying $1M under the luxury tax may still make us the 3rd or 4th highest paid team in 2020 is not poverty. Resetting the tax and then asking Henry to go over the line in 2021 and beyond makes much more sense when the taxes are way less due to the reset.

 

My position is based on the belief that I don't think Henry will stay over the limit forever, and to me, it makes more sense to reset in 2020, so we can spend and keep Betts in 2021 and others afterwards.

 

See, this is where we part company. I see this team as being something nearly every other team would love to be...except for the pitching staff. (I know, I know... but EXCEPT.. but still...). We've currently got a combination of players at every position who are good enough to be WSC's. The FO has been several years building this team and there's no assurance that those we draft will make the 2024 Boston Red Sox as good as the current version.

 

There's a very real possibility that some of the core players on this team will be leaving after the 2020 or 2021 seasons, Then would be the time to reset. Not now. Right now this team has the horses to make another run at it. To think that future draft picks will be able to replicate this team is 'buying a pig in a poke', as well as wishful thinking.

 

The attitude of "wait 'til next year' was what got us into the 84 year drought. "Next year" is the window of 2018-2020. It's time to pay the money and continue to run, not to quit after an unpredictable stumble and fall.

Edited September 16, 2019 by S5Dewey

[Nick]

See, this is where we part company. I see this team as being something nearly every other team would love to be...except for the pitching staff. (I know, I know... but EXCEPT.. but still...). We've currently got a combination of players at every position who are good enough to be WSC's. The FO has been several years building this team and there's no assurance that those we draft will make the 2024 Boston Red Sox as good as the current version.

 

There's a very real possibility that some of the core players on this team will be leaving after the 2020 or 2021 seasons, Then would be the time to reset. Not now. Right now this team has the horses to make another run at it. To think that future draft picks will be able to replicate this team is 'buying a pig in a poke', as well as wishful thinking.

 

The attitude of "wait 'til next year' was what got us into the 84 year drought. "Next year" is the window of 2018-2020. It's time to pay the money and continue to run, not to quit after an unpredictable stumble and fall.

 

Finally a post I can get behind. Our offense is still very solid. E Rod has finally arrived as a starting pitcher. Why tear it down a year early? That makes no sense. It starts with proper preparation in Spring Training.

[jacksonianmarch]

Finally a post I can get behind. Our offense is still very solid. E Rod has finally arrived as a starting pitcher. Why tear it down a year early? That makes no sense. It starts with proper preparation in Spring Training.

 

I honestly believe that Henry sees the writing on the wall. Even when Sale and Price stayed healthy, the Sox weren’t winning s***. Sale went down with the Sox down 6 in the WC and 16 out in the division. Price went down in a similar fashion. Now they’ll be a year older and possibly post procedure. What will you expect then? And now, you’ve got to fill a rotation spot vacated by Porcello. I also think the biggest factor is the division. The Sox are clearly third in the division. Clearly. They’d need significant improvements to change that. Henry is all about timing. He isn’t going to add more dollars to this bloated whale.

[moonslav59]

See, this is where we part company. I see this team as being something nearly every other team would love to be...except for the pitching staff. (I know, I know... but EXCEPT.. but still...). We've currently got a combination of players at every position who are good enough to be WSC's. The FO has been several years building this team and there's no assurance that those we draft will make the 2024 Boston Red Sox as good as the current version.

 

There's a very real possibility that some of the core players on this team will be leaving after the 2020 or 2021 seasons, Then would be the time to reset. Not now. Right now this team has the horses to make another run at it. To think that future draft picks will be able to replicate this team is 'buying a pig in a poke', as well as wishful thinking.

 

The attitude of "wait 'til next year' was what got us into the 84 year drought. "Next year" is the window of 2018-2020. It's time to pay the money and continue to run, not to quit after an unpredictable stumble and fall.

 

I can certainly see this position as having a lot of merit, but to keep Betts, we're talking putting off the reset until 2022. That's not unreasonable, but my guess is our farm will still be #30 by then, and we'll have a lot of other players leaving for the reset-- ERod, Workman, Barnes, JD...

[moonslav59]

I honestly believe that Henry sees the writing on the wall. Even when Sale and Price stayed healthy, the Sox weren’t winning s***. Sale went down with the Sox down 6 in the WC and 16 out in the division. Price went down in a similar fashion. Now they’ll be a year older and possibly post procedure. What will you expect then? And now, you’ve got to fill a rotation spot vacated by Porcello. I also think the biggest factor is the division. The Sox are clearly third in the division. Clearly. They’d need significant improvements to change that. Henry is all about timing. He isn’t going to add more dollars to this bloated whale.

 

He saw the writing late, then, because he wouldn't have extended Sale had he known we'd reset after 2019.

[jacksonianmarch]

DD had total control and the champagne taste was not a distant memory. Henry allowed DD to take him on a nostalgia tour and it bit him in the ass. Down to business Henry is back.

[S5Dewey]

I can certainly see this position as having a lot of merit, but to keep Betts, we're talking putting off the reset until 2022. That's not unreasonable, but my guess is our farm will still be #30 by then, and we'll have a lot of other players leaving for the reset-- ERod, Workman, Barnes, JD...

 

That's exactly true, and that's the time to reset. Not when a team has a core of players good enough to win it all.

 

If you're right about being #30 by then - and there's no reason to think otherwise - what have we lost by making another run in 2020? Only a chance to win it all in 2020, and we put off our losing seasons by a couple of years.

 

I share the opinion with you that we have a few down years in our future but I'm in no rush to start them.

 

From what you say I think I'm only slightly older than you are and like you I'm planning on a couple of more decades here, but I'd like to have another WSC soon - just in case I'm wrong.

[moonslav59]

That's exactly true, and that's the time to reset. Not when a team has a core of players good enough to win it all.

 

If you're right about being #30 by then - and there's no reason to think otherwise - what have we lost by making another run in 2020? Only a chance to win it all in 2020, and we put off our losing seasons by a couple of years.

 

I share the opinion with you that we have a few down years in our future but I'm in no rush to start them.

 

From what you say I think I'm only slightly older than you are and like you I'm planning on a couple of more decades here, but I'd like to have another WSC soon - just in case I'm wrong.

 

My worry is that by putting it off 2 years, we may hurt the farm for 3-5 years.

 

If each year we wait we add 2-3 years to the rebuild, is it worth it? (Not saying the math is correct, just a hypothetical.)

[notin]

That's exactly true, and that's the time to reset. Not when a team has a core of players good enough to win it all.

 

If you're right about being #30 by then - and there's no reason to think otherwise - what have we lost by making another run in 2020? Only a chance to win it all in 2020, and we put off our losing seasons by a couple of years.

 

I share the opinion with you that we have a few down years in our future but I'm in no rush to start them.

 

From what you say I think I'm only slightly older than you are and like you I'm planning on a couple of more decades here, but I'd like to have another WSC soon - just in case I'm wrong.

 

It really also depends on who you think of as a core player for this team. The obvious "is he or isn't he" is Bradley. I think - and i might be wrong, especially in the wake of incomplete information - that the Sox can reset this off-season and still keep Betts, but that absolutely necessitates non-tendering/trading Bradley and replacing him with a cheaper alternative. And I think of the staff is healthy, the Sox can still be competitive if they do that.

 

Of course, there is no way right now to even guess what the plan is, as we don't have a GM with some sort of history that allows for educated guesses. So it's just about looking at payroll numbers...

[Nick]

My worry is that by putting it off 2 years, we may hurt the farm for 3-5 years.

 

If each year we wait we add 2-3 years to the rebuild, is it worth it? (Not saying the math is correct, just a hypothetical.)

 

Why do we hurt the farm for 3-5 years? We just need to add a $10M starting pitcher or come up with an internal option. I'd like to think we'll add another year of experience to our entire farm system.

 

Who are we trading away?

[moonslav59]

Why do we hurt the farm for 3-5 years? We just need to add a $10M starting pitcher or come up with an internal option. I'd like to think we'll add another year of experience to our entire farm system.

 

Who are we trading away?

 

Because we will be adding multiple year FA contracts to get good ones, drafting low and having restricted IFA pools for 2 more years. each draft affects more than just one year into the future, especially when you draft HS players often.

 

We won't get a good closer on a 1-2 year deal.

[Slasher9]

Do we really want to save billionaire John Henry a little money and suffer through one or more seasons of dismal baseball ?

 

We? hell no.

John Henry? absolutely. there is a number that he is willing to go to that maximizes his investment/revenue. i guarantee you he will not go past that number. these guys are billionaires for a reason. not taking a profit is not one of the reasons. ever.