A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[notin]

The hype for Espinosa was all a misunderstanding . Some scout said he was " the next Pedro ". But he meant Pedro Beato , not Pedro Martinez .

 

I assumed it was Pedro Borbon. Pedro Borbon Sr, of course...

[jacksonianmarch]

Guys going by DSL stats and saying DSL Prospects are over paying. Crazy. Any unreal Prospect there is so young, no Team would get rid of them, especially if they go to the real Minor Leagues, starting in Single A, and start dominating.

Never.

DSL and GCL are good to see young talent, but not the place to say he's the next Pedro.

Pedro never had any problem going to any league and dominated, against any age.

 

There are PLENTY of great players who struggled in their first year of professional ball, especially IFA guys in their first year in the states.

[Slasher9]

Pomeranz pitched in the All Star Game as a starter 4 days before we acquired him. His first full season in Boston, he was 17-6 with a 3.32ERA.

 

how did he do after the league got to see him?

i would rather have moncada playing 2b for the next 5 years then have pom's effort in 2018.

perhaps we will just continue to disagree on whether using our blue chip prospect to get a flash in the pan "starter" was worth it....

[jacksonianmarch]

how did he do after the league got to see him?

i would rather have moncada playing 2b for the next 5 years then have pom's effort in 2018.

perhaps we will just continue to disagree on whether using our blue chip prospect to get a flash in the pan "starter" was worth it....

 

They sold on Espinosa at exactly the right time. He ended up with TJS by the end of the fall and his value dropped to nil. You can debate what they got for him all you want, but jettisoning him was the right move in retrospect

[cp176]

Yep, the Hindsight Jury has acquitted the Espinoza trade.

 

finally thank God! That trade was a very good one. Trades in general are risky but trading an unproven young pitcher who granted showed great potential for a big young left handed ml pitcher with great potential just seems and seemed like a no brainer. if people want to play GM and think that they could have done any of the deals for less than what it cost us, it is tough to argue or even debate with them. I simply say that they really need to get their applications for the job in right away.

[notin]

finally thank God! That trade was a very good one. Trades in general are risky but trading an unproven young pitcher who granted showed great potential for a big young left handed ml pitcher with great potential just seems and seemed like a no brainer. if people want to play GM and think that they could have done any of the deals for less than what it cost us, it is tough to argue or even debate with them. I simply say that they really need to get their applications for the job in right away.

 

I'm trying.

 

Want to be my reference?

[notin]

how did he do after the league got to see him?

i would rather have moncada playing 2b for the next 5 years then have pom's effort in 2018.

perhaps we will just continue to disagree on whether using our blue chip prospect to get a flash in the pan "starter" was worth it....

 

Speculation that 1) Espinoza wouldn't have gotten hurt and 2) that CWS would have taken him over Moncada is stacking speculation upon speculation. The only thing we know for certain is Moncada was the player the White Sox settled for. They wanted Benintendi. Both of your speculations are less likely then Espinoza simply never making it, like hundreds upon hundreds of top pitching prospects before him.

 

What do you suppose the price for 2 1/2 seasons of an All Star starting pitcher should be if not a good prospect in low A-ball?

[Bellhorn04]

Speculation that 1) Espinoza wouldn't have gotten hurt and 2) that CWS would have taken him over Moncada is stacking speculation upon speculation.

 

There's nothing worse than a speculation stack.

[notin]

There's nothing worse than a speculation stack.

 

But that's the major criterion for the Hindsight Jury

[moonslav59]

More trades like Sale? Not sure that was actually possible.

 

I really wanted Quintana, too, but he has not done all that well since leaving Chicago. Could we have gotten both by adding Espi, Dubon, Shaw and Basabe?

[notin]

I really wanted Quintana, too, but he has not done all that well since leaving Chicago. Could we have gotten both by adding Espi, Dubon, Shaw and Basabe?

 

Stack away, Master Speculator...

[moonslav59]

But that's the major criterion for the Hindsight Jury

 

Yes, of course.

 

Pom gave us one very good year in 2017 sandwiched around a pretty poor half season in 2016 and a pretty bad 2018 season.

 

Calling it a win, now is probably right, but the hindsight court is still gathering evidence (on Espi) before the verdict is final.

[Bellhorn04]

I really wanted Quintana, too, but he has not done all that well since leaving Chicago. Could we have gotten both by adding Espi, Dubon, Shaw and Basabe?

 

I don't know, but if you really wanted to make a fun project out of it you could look at what the ChiSox got from the Cubs.

 

Also, would I be a jerk if I pointed out that he didn't leave Chicago?

[notin]

Really if we draw any conclusion from the Dombrowski Era trades, it's not that he frequently overpaid. But most of the prospects he dealt away are actually making MLB. Ty Buttrey, Shaun Anderson, Gershon Bautista, Steve Nogosek, Logan Allen, Dubon, Moncada, Kopech. I have faith Basabe will one day as well. Really the only flops he dealt away are Espinoza and Javier Guerra, and the latter is trying to reinvent himself as a pitcher with an alleged 98mph fastball.

 

Did he just know his own farm system that well? Or just give in for any player they asked for and not worry about it?

[notin]

I don't know, but if you really wanted to make a fun project out of it you could look at what the ChiSox got from the Cubs.

 

Also, would I be a jerk if I pointed out that he didn't leave Chicago?

 

The bidding there does start with Eloy Jimenez. That's a tough one to top.

 

and, yes...

[moonslav59]

Really if we draw any conclusion from the Dombrowski Era trades, it's not that he frequently overpaid. But most of the prospects he dealt away are actually making MLB. Ty Buttrey, Shaun Anderson, Gershon Bautista, Steve Nogosek, Logan Allen, Dubon, Moncada, Kopech. I have faith Basabe will one day as well. Really the only flops he dealt away are Espinoza and Javier Guerra, and the latter is trying to reinvent himself as a pitcher with an alleged 98mph fastball.

 

Did he just know his own farm system that well? Or just give in for any player they asked for and not worry about it?

 

You forgot the Margot & Beeks in MLB column.

Edited September 14, 2019 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Moncada (Sale)

Margot (Kimbrel)

Kopech (Sale)

Espinoza (Pom)

Allen (Kimbrel)

Dubon (with Travis Shaw for Thornburg)

Buttrey (Kinsler)

Beeks (Eovaldi)

Basabe (Sale)

Basabe (Thornburg)

Shaun Anderson (Nunez)

Bautista, Nogosek & Callahan (Addison Reed)

Guerra & Asuaje (Kimbrel)

Rijo & Wilkerson (A Hill)

Espinal (Pearce)

 

Most are small or tiny sample sizes, but it's amazing how many have made it to the bigs:

 

Moncada 1397 PAs .780 OPS (.888 this season in 496)

Margot 1484 PAs .705 OPS (.727 this season in 399)

Kopech 14 IP 5.02 (AAA in '18 126 IP 3.70 ERA/ 2.88 in '17)

Espinoza (A in '16: 108 IP 4.49)

Allen 28 IP 6.18 ERA

Dubon 47 PAs .765 OPS

Buttrey 82 IP 3.86 ERA

Beeks 151 IP 4.82 ERA (4.47 after BOS)

Anderson 91 IP 5.14 ERA

Callahan 7 IP 4.05

Bautista 13 IP 11.48 ERA

Nogosek 7 IP 10.80 ERA

Guerra 19 PAs .388 OPS (464 PAs/.666 in AAA '18)

Asuage 520 PAs .641 OPS

Wilkerson 35 IP 6.88 ERA

Espinal (521 PA in AAA/AA at .740 in '19)

Basabe (AA 561 PAs .695 OPS)

Basabe (A+ 500 PAs .792) OPS

 

Did I forget anybody?

Edited September 14, 2019 by moonslav59

[oldtimer]

Moncada (Sale)

Margot (Kimbrel)

Kopech (Sale)

Espinoza (Pom)

Allen (Kimbrel)

Dubon (with Travis Shaw for Thornburg)

Buttrey (Kinsler)

Beeks (Eovaldi)

Basabe (Sale)

Basabe (Thornburg)

Shaun Anderson (Nunez)

Bautista, Nogosek & Callahan (Addison Reed)

Guerra & Asuaje (Kimbrel)

Rijo & Wilkerson (A Hill)

Espinal (Pearce)

 

Most are small or tiny sample sizes, but it's amazing how many have made it to the bigs:

 

Moncada 1397 PAs .780 OPS (.888 this season in 496)

Margot 1484 PAs .705 OPS (.727 this season in 399)

Kopech 14 IP 5.02 (AAA in '18 126 IP 3.70 ERA/ 2.88 in '17)

Espinoza (A in '16: 108 IP 4.49)

Allen 28 IP 6.18 ERA

Dubon 47 PAs .765 OPS

Buttrey 82 IP 3.86 ERA

Beeks 151 IP 4.82 ERA (4.47 after BOS)

Anderson 91 IP 5.14 ERA

Callahan 7 IP 4.05

Bautista 13 IP 11.48 ERA

Nogosek 7 IP 10.80 ERA

Guerra 19 PAs .388 OPS (464 PAs/.666 in AAA '18)

Asuage 520 PAs .641 OPS

Wilkerson 35 IP 6.88 ERA

Espinal (521 PA in AAA/AA at .740 in '19)

Basabe (AA 561 PAs .695 OPS)

Basabe (A+ 500 PAs .792) OPS

 

Did I forget anybody?

 

Its also interesting to see how many of the guys we traded our farm for are still with the Sox. Like the old south, their gone with the wind.

[Bellhorn04]

Moncada (Sale)

Margot (Kimbrel)

Kopech (Sale)

Espinoza (Pom)

Allen (Kimbrel)

Dubon (with Travis Shaw for Thornburg)

Buttrey (Kinsler)

Beeks (Eovaldi)

Basabe (Sale)

Basabe (Thornburg)

Shaun Anderson (Nunez)

Bautista, Nogosek & Callahan (Addison Reed)

Guerra & Asuaje (Kimbrel)

Rijo & Wilkerson (A Hill)

Espinal (Pearce)

 

Most are small or tiny sample sizes, but it's amazing how many have made it to the bigs:

 

Moncada 1397 PAs .780 OPS (.888 this season in 496)

Margot 1484 PAs .705 OPS (.727 this season in 399)

Kopech 14 IP 5.02 (AAA in '18 126 IP 3.70 ERA/ 2.88 in '17)

Espinoza (A in '16: 108 IP 4.49)

Allen 28 IP 6.18 ERA

Dubon 47 PAs .765 OPS

Buttrey 82 IP 3.86 ERA

Beeks 151 IP 4.82 ERA (4.47 after BOS)

Anderson 91 IP 5.14 ERA

Callahan 7 IP 4.05

Bautista 13 IP 11.48 ERA

Nogosek 7 IP 10.80 ERA

Guerra 19 PAs .388 OPS (464 PAs/.666 in AAA '18)

Asuage 520 PAs .641 OPS

Wilkerson 35 IP 6.88 ERA

Espinal (521 PA in AAA/AA at .740 in '19)

Basabe (AA 561 PAs .695 OPS)

Basabe (A+ 500 PAs .792) OPS

 

Did I forget anybody?

 

Guys like Mike Shawaryn and Ryan Weber and Josh Smith have also made it to the bigs.

 

It's not necessarily an indicator of success in itself.

[Bellhorn04]

Its also interesting to see how many of the guys we traded our farm for are still with the Sox. Like the old south, their gone with the wind.

 

Flags keep flying in the wind, though.

[dgalehouse]

Big deal . How many of them would have been any help to us this year ? One or maybe two ? And not that much help anyway . And how many have reached the level of the guys we acquired for them ? Have any ? An unprecedented three straight A.L. East titles and one ring , yet we still weep over the ones who got away .

[a700hitter]

Big deal . How many of them would have been any help to us this year ? One or maybe two ? And not that much help anyway . And how many have reached the level of the guys we acquired for them ? Have any ? An unprecedented three straight A.L. East titles and one ring , yet we still weep over the ones who got away .

Agreed, None of them would have made a difference and we will never miss them.

 

What would have made a difference this season would have been being prepared to start the season in April not May. We’d be right in the Wild Card hunt, but for the sleepwalk through the first month/5 week’s. Plus, Cora never got the team kicked into high gear. They were convinced that they would make the playoffs just by their innate greatness I guess.

[moonslav59]

Guys like Mike Shawaryn and Ryan Weber and Josh Smith have also made it to the bigs.

 

It's not necessarily an indicator of success in itself.

 

Very true, but many have just made it to the bigs, so time will tell.

 

Certainly some of these guys may end up no better than Shawaryn, but there was a time I viewed Beeks and Buttrey about the same as I do Shawary, Weber and Smith.

[oldtimer]

Agreed, None of them would have made a difference and we will never miss them.

 

What would have made a difference this season would have been being prepared to start the season in April not May. We’d be right in the Wild Card hunt, but for the sleepwalk through the first month/5 week’s. Plus, Cora never got the team kicked into high gear. They were convinced that they would make the playoffs just by their innate greatness I guess.

 

Turns out we could have used Moncada at 2nd base and it was predictable that Pedey wouldn't be back. An interesting point is the Moncada struggled in the strikeout department but has made strides in that area. We have Chavis who has struggled as well and maybe the seasoning will produce much better results in his second season. Nice to be optimistic about something.

[moonslav59]

Turns out we could have used Moncada at 2nd base and it was predictable that Pedey wouldn't be back. An interesting point is the Moncada struggled in the strikeout department but has made strides in that area. We have Chavis who has struggled as well and maybe the seasoning will produce much better results in his second season. Nice to be optimistic about something.

 

The whole DD philosophy was to build a 3-5 year window to win a ring(s). It looks like it lasted 3 years, but he got what the goal was all about: winning at least one ring. I'm glad we won, of this debate would be much more heated. I was fine with the overall plan, although I disagreed with some deals and the extent he raided the farm, but we won, and I'm happy.

 

There's no guarantee we'd be looking at a ring(s) in the next 2-3 years had we not made the trades or even not made some of the trades. We may never know, if we'd have won in 2018 without this deal or that. Some are pretty clear, but others are not.

 

The fact is, DD did trade away much of our future hopes for the here and now. Certainly our future would look better, now, had we not made some or all of the trades. Some player already are making a difference, while others look much more promising than the prospects and young players we have right now.

 

Here's a look at where we MIGHT BE going forward had we not made any of DD's deals- granted this is not a reasonable supposition.

 

SP: ERod, Price, Eovaldi, Allen, Beeks, Kopech, Espinoza, D Hern

RP: Workman, Barnes, Buttrey, Hembree, Taylor, Walden, Anderson

C: Vaz, Leon or Centeno

1B: Shaw, Chavis

2B: Moncada

3B: Devers

SS: Bogey

IF: Dubon, Marco, Asuaje, Lin, Dalbec, Chatham

LF: Beni, Basabe

CF: JBJ, Margot (maybe trade or non tender JBJ)

RF: Betts

DH: JD

[dgalehouse]

You could make an All Star team of the prospects we traded . An All Star team in the Rookie League , that is .

[moonslav59]

You could make an All Star team of the prospects we traded . An All Star team in the Rookie League , that is .

 

Your point emphasizes the fact that most of the players we traded have yet to reach their time.

 

Nobody has said we'd have won in 2016, 2017 or 2018 had we kept all the kids. It was about not trading so many and being better positioned for 2020 and well beyond.

[notin]

You could make an All Star team of the prospects we traded . An All Star team in the Rookie League , that is .

 

So if Dombrowski was the GM in 2013 and traded Betts and Bogaerts to win a World Series, would it be so justifiable today?

[moonslav59]

So if Dombrowski was the GM in 2013 and traded Betts and Bogaerts to win a World Series, would it be so justifiable today?

 

Good one.

[dgalehouse]

So if Dombrowski was the GM in 2013 and traded Betts and Bogaerts to win a World Series, would it be so justifiable today?

 

Not one of your better questions . I don't see any similarities here .