A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

you are missing the point most of us have with the overpays. he overpayed for kimbrell, pom, thornburg. i am not sure of the timing of thornburg but the kimbrell and pom overpays were before Sale. we could have used some of those overpay prospects in a deal to chicago for sale and STILL HAD MONCADA playing 2b for us for the next handful of years.....

 

But that's speculation too. Moncada was the centerpiece of that trade.

[dgalehouse]

you are missing the point most of us have with the overpays. he overpayed for kimbrell, pom, thornburg. i am not sure of the timing of thornburg but the kimbrell and pom overpays were before Sale. we could have used some of those overpay prospects in a deal to chicago for sale and STILL HAD MONCADA playing 2b for us for the next handful of years.....

 

I don't know about that . I don't think any of the others could have been swapped for Moncada to get Sale .

[notin]

I don't know about that . I don't think any of the others could have been swapped for Moncada to get Sale .

 

Chicago reportedly wanted Benintendi.

 

I don't think any combination of Margot, Espinoza, and Dubon replaces Moncada in that trade. And at the time, Sale was on one of the most team-friendly contracts in MLB. It was supposed to cost a lot to get him...

[notin]

For the most part , the prospects D.D. traded have not amounted to all that much . Moncada being the only one we could have used . And you don't get Sale without dealing him . We will see about Dubon . Anyway , Devers is better than any of them . And Logan Allen is not exactly the next Koufax . How can you say it was worth it because we won a ring , and then keep crying about the lost " prospects " ? The jury has already given their verdict . Case is closed .

 

That is a silly justification, since Margot is the only one who is even 25 yet.

[dgalehouse]

That is a silly justification, since Margot is the only one who is even 25 yet.

 

Okay. You are in the " jury is still out " camp . When is it time for a mistrial ?

[cp176]

you are missing the point most of us have with the overpays. he overpayed for kimbrell, pom, thornburg. i am not sure of the timing of thornburg but the kimbrell and pom overpays were before Sale. we could have used some of those overpay prospects in a deal to chicago for sale and STILL HAD MONCADA playing 2b for us for the next handful of years.....

 

if you believe everything that you wrote here Slasher, don't you think that there is just a little bit of hindsight gawking required?

[Slasher9]

if you believe everything that you wrote here Slasher, don't you think that there is just a little bit of hindsight gawking required?

 

i dont know. i was on record with Pom saying it was an overpay right from the start (i think you and i had some pretty good discussions on that thread)

 

the kimbrel trade happened in 2015 prior to the great BDC migration so my posts on that particular overpay are gone forevermore....

 

I loved the Sale trade and would do it again with Yoan... but I have said in a variety of threads since then that i believe we could have done it without including Moncada if we had some of the other chips wasted on Pom and overpay of kimbrel.

 

doesn't matter really. whats done is done. like i have also said many times....at least we got a parade out of the decimation of the Farm.

[moonslav59]

you are missing the point most of us have with the overpays. he overpayed for kimbrell, pom, thornburg. i am not sure of the timing of thornburg but the kimbrell and pom overpays were before Sale. we could have used some of those overpay prospects in a deal to chicago for sale and STILL HAD MONCADA playing 2b for us for the next handful of years.....

 

That's how I saw it. I even said, back then, maybe we could have gotten Sale & Quintana, but Q has not been great. The point was, it wasn't just about the trade vs a non trade, it could have been a different trade, and we can forever debate what those might have been like.

[moonslav59]

i dont know. i was on record with Pom saying it was an overpay right from the start (i think you and i had some pretty good discussions on that thread)

 

the kimbrel trade happened in 2015 prior to the great BDC migration so my posts on that particular overpay are gone forevermore....

 

I loved the Sale trade and would do it again with Yoan... but I have said in a variety of threads since then that i believe we could have done it without including Moncada if we had some of the other chips wasted on Pom and overpay of kimbrel.

 

doesn't matter really. whats done is done. like i have also said many times....at least we got a parade out of the decimation of the Farm.

 

I loved Kimbrel and said he was the best when we got him, but I hated the trade from day one, due mostly to his top contract. It was like we signed a FA and gave up 4 prospects. It didn't jive with me. As time went by, and closer contracts sky-rocketed, I mentioned the deal looked better, but I still wish we never made it.

 

I was against the Pom trade, but not because I disliked Pom or thought Espi was going to be the next Pedro (Okay, I once said that "might be his upside), but because I thought we could have packaged him for something better (Sale or Quintana?).

 

I thought the Thornburg deal was okay, because I was not high on Shaw, at the time, but I did think Dubon was a lot to give up.

 

We didn't give up that much for Carson Smith, but Wade Miley has gone on to do some pretty good things.

 

I loved the Sale trade and still do.

 

[Bellhorn04]

I loved Kimbrel and said he was the best when we got him, but I hated the trade from day one, due mostly to his top contract. It was like we signed a FA and gave up 4 prospects. It didn't jive with me.

 

By the same token, a team that trades with us for Betts is going to have to pay him at close to a top free agent salary. So how much should they be willing to give up in prospect capital?

[moonslav59]

By the same token, a team that trades with us for Betts is going to have to pay him at close to a top free agent salary. So how much should they be willing to give up in prospect capital?

 

Probably not as much as I'd want, but one year at $26-29M is not as risky as $300M/10, so if a team is looking for a championship in 2020, maybe they'll overpay, like we did.

 

Betts is better than Kimbrel, so there's that, too.

[dgalehouse]

I loved Kimbrel and said he was the best when we got him, but I hated the trade from day one, due mostly to his top contract. It was like we signed a FA and gave up 4 prospects. It didn't jive with me. As time went by, and closer contracts sky-rocketed, I mentioned the deal looked better, but I still wish we never made it.

 

I was against the Pom trade, but not because I disliked Pom or thought Espi was going to be the next Pedro (Okay, I once said that "might be his upside), but because I thought we could have packaged him for something better (Sale or Quintana?).

 

I thought the Thornburg deal was okay, because I was not high on Shaw, at the time, but I did think Dubon was a lot to give up.

 

We didn't give up that much for Carson Smith, but Wade Miley has gone on to do some pretty good things.

 

I loved the Sale trade and still do.

 

 

If the Sox had held on to Margot , Allen , Asuaje and Guerra , then went cheap at closer for a Tyler Clippard , how much success do you think they would have had the last three years ?

[notin]

If the Sox had held on to Margot , Allen , Asuaje and Guerra , then went cheap at closer for a Tyler Clippard , how much success do you think they would have had the last three years ?

 

I’ll say 3 division titles and 1 World Series. Prove me wrong...

[moonslav59]

If the Sox had held on to Margot , Allen , Asuaje and Guerra , then went cheap at closer for a Tyler Clippard , how much success do you think they would have had the last three years ?

 

I didn't say I wouldn't have traded them.

Also, We may have won a ring without Kimbrel.

 

[dgalehouse]

I’ll say 3 division titles and 1 World Series. Prove me wrong...

 

I don't know how I could prove something like that . Just my opinion that we don't .

[dgalehouse]

I didn't say I wouldn't have traded them.

Also, We may have won a ring without Kimbrel.

 

 

We may have , but the chances are we would not . You were opposed to that deal . But it worked out just as planned . And you are still against it . Hard to argue .

Edited September 12, 2019 by dgalehouse

[notin]

I don't know how I could prove something like that . Just my opinion that we don't .

 

And we’ll never know.

 

But it is irrelevant as to whether or not the Sox overpaid for Kimbrel. The only hypothetical that matters is - could they have gotten him for less? Now if that lesser package meant we keep Asuaje, big deal. But if it meant we keep Logan Allen, that actually is a big deal right now. No matter what you think Logan Allen has proven, know this: he isn’t Brian Johnson...

[dgalehouse]

And we’ll never know.

 

But it is irrelevant as to whether or not the Sox overpaid for Kimbrel. The only hypothetical that matters is - could they have gotten him for less? Now if that lesser package meant we keep Asuaje, big deal. But if it meant we keep Logan Allen, that actually is a big deal right now. No matter what you think Logan Allen has proven, know this: he isn’t Brian Johnson...

We are not in on these negotiations , so we don't really know what it takes to get the deal done . If you think we overpaid , okay . But the bottom line is we got the results we were looking for . And that counts for a lot . You can't kill Dombrowski for everything .

[moonslav59]

We may have , but the chances are we would not . You were opposed to that deal . But it worked out just as planned . And you are still against it . Hard to argue .

 

I thought it was a bad deal. I still do.

 

Yes, we won a ring, and it's impossible to prove whether we win none, one, two or three had we not made the trade.

 

Kimbrel was great for us- just about every year. It wasn't about the players we traded. I would have wanted to trade many of the prospects DD ended up trading.

 

It was about trading so many AND paying top or near top dollar for his contract at the same time.

 

Same with the Espi-Pom trade. I liked Pom, but I thought we needed better than him, and I wished we had the Kimbrel prospects or others to package with him for a much better pitcher.

 

Look, I realize Sale and Quinatna might not have been available at the time of the CK and DP deals, and we'll never know what the other choices might have been available.

 

I've said it many times. DD brought us a ring. I'm fine with what he did.It worked. That doesn't mean I have to like evey move he ever made, and I don't. I'm sure you probably don't like some things, too.

[oldtimer]

What does the current hitting malaise say about how good our offense might be in 2020? Shutout by the Yankees, 3 runs last night against a so so pitching staff land tonight 2 hits in 8 innings with only Mookie missing from the lineup from the same so so staff. This is not the first time this team has gone cold and then gotten hot for stretches this season. Good pitching and bad luck can account for some of it, but is there some other issue with the Sox and if so, what is it?

 

Coaching, hitters approach, we aren't as good as we considered we were? It looks like our offense is totally flat right now. Do we need to reevaluate players and coaches to find a more competitive group or approach? It is discouraging to watch.

[moonslav59]

What does the current hitting malaise say about how good our offense might be in 2020? Shutout by the Yankees, 3 runs last night against a so so pitching staff land tonight 2 hits in 8 innings with only Mookie missing from the lineup from the same so so staff. This is not the first time this team has gone cold and then gotten hot for stretches this season. Good pitching and bad luck can account for some of it, but is there some other issue with the Sox and if so, what is it?

 

Coaching, hitters approach, we aren't as good as we considered we were? It looks like our offense is totally flat right now. Do we need to reevaluate players and coaches to find a more competitive group or approach? It is discouraging to watch.

 

I think, barring any major losses to the line-up, we'll be a top 3 offense, again.

 

That being said, will we still lack timely hitting and bunch our runs too much, then we'll be no better off.

 

(Not that I'm placing blame on the offense for 2019.)

[dgalehouse]

I thought it was a bad deal. I still do.

 

Yes, we won a ring, and it's impossible to prove whether we win none, one, two or three had we not made the trade.

 

Kimbrel was great for us- just about every year. It wasn't about the players we traded. I would have wanted to trade many of the prospects DD ended up trading.

 

It was about trading so many AND paying top or near top dollar for his contract at the same time.

 

Same with the Espi-Pom trade. I liked Pom, but I thought we needed better than him, and I wished we had the Kimbrel prospects or others to package with him for a much better pitcher.

 

Look, I realize Sale and Quinatna might not have been available at the time of the CK and DP deals, and we'll never know what the other choices might have been available.

 

I've said it many times. DD brought us a ring. I'm fine with what he did.It worked. That doesn't mean I have to like evey move he ever made, and I don't. I'm sure you probably don't like some things, too.

 

I have criticized D.D. for some things , especially this year . But when he makes a move that works out just as he had hoped , I can't knock it .

[OH FOY]

This is an important reading about average age of Minor Leagues.

https://sabr.org/research/truth-minor-league-class-structure-case-reclassification-minors

Espinoza Trade was a smart move.

This year we got rid of 2 DSL kids for Cashner, everybody said no big deal. We should be watching Prado just as much as Espinoza.

Espinosa was 17 years old, typical for DSL kids. He was facing kids his age, like High School.

As soon as he hit Single A, and started facing kids 4 years older, he struggled. Struggled in both Single A leagues. Special Kids don't struggle, like Urias of the Dodgers. They dominate kids older too. Which is good to gage a kid. Now, you don't want to get rid of him. Urias was 16 when he started his Professional Career, 19 he was in the Majors. Reason, he dominated kids older then him, in the Minors. That's why the Dodgers didn't get rid of him.

What smart GM's would never do is Trade for a kid that has small sample size in Pitching in a Rookie Leagues numbers to kids his age, for a proven young Major League Pitcher, with team control. It was a smart move. He used the Former Sox executive who signed him, to his advantage.

Please don't bring up Hindsight, if your using it too.

 

Edit: Durran, did fantastic, till he faced Players that were his equal in talent, from here on in, its going to be work for him.

Edited September 12, 2019 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

I have criticized D.D. for some things , especially this year . But when he makes a move that works out just as he had hoped , I can't knock it .

 

There are trades that have some good and bad parts.

 

Kimbrel was a great closer. We needed one. DD got one, but it's hard to deny he paid top dollar for him, like he was a FA AND he gave up a package that is usually only seen for s top SP'er or everyday player- not a closer.

 

As I said, once the cost of a top FA closer began to sky-rocket, the finanical part of the deal didn't look as bad as at the time of the trade.

 

We'll never know, if we could have gotten Kimbrel without giving up Allen, or who else we might have been able to get with a similar package or by adding Espinoza to a mix. It's all conjecture.

 

I have no beef with anyone that still loves the deal. I hate it less now than I did then, but I'm still on the side that it was too much of an overpay.

 

[moonslav59]

This is an important reading about average age of Minor Leagues.

https://sabr.org/research/truth-minor-league-class-structure-case-reclassification-minors

Espinoza Trade was a smart move.

This year we got rid of 2 DSL kids for Cashner, everybody said no big deal. We should be watching Prado just as much as Espinoza.

Espinosa was 17 years old, typical for DSL kids. He was facing kids his age, like High School.

As soon as he hit Single A, and started facing kids 4 years older, he struggled. Struggled in both Single A leagues. Special Kids don't struggle, like Urias of the Dodgers. They dominate kids older too. Which is good to gage a kid. Now, you don't want to get rid of him. Urias was 16 when he started his Professional Career, 19 he was in the Majors. Reason, he dominated kids older then him, in the Minors. That's why the Dodgers didn't get rid of him.

What smart GM's would do would never Trade for a kid that has small sample size in Pitching in a Rookie Leagues numbers to kids his age, for a proven young Major League Pitcher, with team control. It was a smart move.

Please don't bring up Hindsight, if your using it too.

 

Edit: Durran, did fantastic, till he faced Players that were his equal in talent, from here on in, its going to be work for him.

 

Espi was a top 20 prospect, which is very rare for a kid that age. I think we could have gotten better with a larger package, but we had very littleleft to add to a deal after the farm had already been nearly gutted.

 

I'm thrilled DD had the sense to keep Devers & ERod.

[Bellhorn04]

Hindsight Jury says: if Logan Allen turns out to be something, it was definitely an overpay.

[notin]

There are trades that have some good and bad parts.

 

Kimbrel was a great closer. We needed one. DD got one, but it's hard to deny he paid top dollar for him, like he was a FA AND he gave up a package that is usually only seen for s top SP'er or everyday player- not a closer.

 

As I said, once the cost of a top FA closer began to sky-rocket, the finanical part of the deal didn't look as bad as at the time of the trade.

 

We'll never know, if we could have gotten Kimbrel without giving up Allen, or who else we might have been able to get with a similar package or by adding Espinoza to a mix. It's all conjecture.

 

I have no beef with anyone that still loves the deal. I hate it less now than I did then, but I'm still on the side that it was too much of an overpay.

 

 

I didn’t like the Kimbrel deal, but in retrospect, it was an odd moment in Dombrowski’s career when he actually paid attention to the bullpen. Not being sarcastic here. Part of me looks at this deal and the other two bad trades (Thornburg, Carson Smith) and notices a common thread. I think the guy just couldn’t find away to value relievers. So while I don’t like and never liked the Kimbrel trade, I do look at it differently now

[Bellhorn04]

I didn’t like the Kimbrel deal, but in retrospect, it was an odd moment in Dombrowski’s career when he actually paid attention to the bullpen. Not being sarcastic here. Part of me looks at this deal and the other two bad trades (Thornburg, Carson Smith) and notices a common thread. I think the guy just couldn’t find away to value relievers. So while I don’t like and never liked the Kimbrel trade, I do look at it differently now

 

But we'd be judging the Thornburg and Smith trades differently if they had been healthy and pitched anything like they did the year before we got them.

[moonslav59]

I didn’t like the Kimbrel deal, but in retrospect, it was an odd moment in Dombrowski’s career when he actually paid attention to the bullpen. Not being sarcastic here. Part of me looks at this deal and the other two bad trades (Thornburg, Carson Smith) and notices a common thread. I think the guy just couldn’t find away to value relievers. So while I don’t like and never liked the Kimbrel trade, I do look at it differently now

 

I do, too. It looks better afterwards, and the ring certainly helped, although CK looked bad in the 2019 playoffs.

 

I loved having Kimbrel. We won a ring. It's hard to say the trade was a failure, and I'm not saying that.

 

I'm okay with overpays. The Sale trade was an overpay. The Thornburg trade as well, but it wasn't a gross overpay, although the Thornburg one looks bad, now. It's like the Price signing. We all knew we paid too much and/or for too long, but we needed an ace, and he was one of the top 3 aces to enter free agents in a pretty long window. Overpay? Yes. Still a plus signing? I think, yes. (It's looking worse now than at the time, and that's scary with so many years left.)

[OH FOY]

For me no problem if you like going to sites and thinking everything is a sure thing by them.

I need more, basically its how they perform as they move up in Leagues and tougher competition and Age that your facing compared to how old you are.