A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[moonslav59]

DD should be remembered for both the good he achieved and for the terrible state he has left the team in. Lets learn from it. Money needs to be spent wisely and moves which decimate the farm will have repurcussions in following years. This game needs it stars and it also needs to have a constant flow of players coming from the farm or through low cost acquisitions. That balance is not easy to attain, but is easy to screw up. So instaed of blaming DD we should learn from it and proceed in a positive manner. We can remain somewhatt competitive while rebuilding to a team which competes at the highest level. Thats a positive view and can be accompliished. Those who stand in the way should be gone. Lead, follow but don't get in the way.

 

Well said, although it is much more difficult to draft well when winning all the time. The 10 slot draft penalty for going over the max line didn't help either.

[Slasher9]

DD did exactly what most of us said he would do on the day his hiring was announced. decimate the Farm but hope it gets us a parade or two. he got us one so for that i am thankful. time to move on to quick rebuild.

[notin]

DD did exactly what most of us said he would do on the day his hiring was announced. decimate the Farm but hope it gets us a parade or two. he got us one so for that i am thankful. time to move on to quick rebuild.

 

Given his style, results were about as good as could have been hoped for. But the duration was shorter, and the aftermath might be too long...

[kenmeister]

DD did exactly what most of us said he would do on the day his hiring was announced. decimate the Farm but hope it gets us a parade or two. he got us one so for that i am thankful. time to move on to quick rebuild.

 

Yeah to be honest I've cheered most of his moves (especially extending Bogaerts). I've only had 3 quibbles:

1) I thought David Price got too nice a deal. I was glad we signed him, but I was worried that contract would become an albatross.

2) Trading Shaw for Thornburg. Didn't really matter in the end though.

3) Extending Sale. That was my one, "What are you thinking?" moment; it seemed obvious to me to wait & see how he'd do in his final year before extending him given his injured condition.

 

I suppose DD also got fired for the moves he didn't make.

[notin]

I suppose DD also got fired for the moves he didn't make.

 

Like... quitting?

[oldtimer]

For 2020 the New GM will have his hands full with the roster. I expect him to think along the lines stated below:

 

Core Keepers: Bogaerts, Vazquez, Rodriguez, Benintendi, Devers, D Hernandez, Walden and Taylor

 

Those we will have on contract that we can't move: Price, Sale, Eovaldi, Pedroia (hope for the best)

 

Those we expect to keep: Betts, Barnes, Workman, Holt, Chavis,Latkins, Maddox, Weber, Chacin, Smith

 

Those possibly traded/dfaed: Leon,Hembree, Bradley,Johnson,M Hernandez,Travis, Lin, Poyner, Brewer, Shawayan, Kelley

 

Opt out possible: Martinez

 

Those Gone: Cashner, Moreland, Nunez**, Pearce, Owings, Wright, Hembree,Brasier, Velazquez, G Hernandez, Centeno, Renda

 

Possible Added: Houck,Mata, Dalbec, Chatham, Okimey, Felton

 

Other: Castillo

 

Even this list leaves us possibly short on a backup catcher, starting pitching and also BP pitching. Good luck to our new decision maker. Will it be Mike Hazen?

[kenmeister]

Like... quitting?

 

Sorry I thought he was fired. Did he actually leave on his own?

[jacksonianmarch]

Well said, although it is much more difficult to draft well when winning all the time. The 10 slot draft penalty for going over the max line didn't help either.

 

And drafting guys with limited tool sets hurt as well. Yes, drafting late isn't great, but it isn't a zero sum game. His 16 draft netted him some prospects (Chatham and Dalbec), although nobody top notch outside of Groome who got hurt. 2017 hurts with Houck now a reliever and essentially the entire draft being a whiff. When you're drafting late and you don't have access to the top talents you have to at least net prospects somewhere. If Houck gets hurt before making the majors, the sox entire 2017 draft will be without a major league player. That is a rarity. 2018 was better with Casas as a true top 100 prospect and Duran being the one to move the fastest. 2019 is a big ?? right now. But when your 2016 is supposed to have a guy leading a rotation who didn't pitch for 2 seasons and the only other guys there are bit prospects with huge holes in their game, you lose some success. When you then whiff on the following year's draft, it leaves a bubble in your farm system with no upper level talent to speak of.

[jacksonianmarch]

For 2020 the New GM will have his hands full with the roster. I expect him to think along the lines stated below:

 

Core Keepers: Bogaerts, Vazquez, Rodriguez, Benintendi, Devers, D Hernandez, Walden and Taylor

 

Those we will have on contract that we can't move: Price, Sale, Eovaldi, Pedroia (hope for the best)

 

Those we expect to keep: Betts, Barnes, Workman, Holt, Chavis,Latkins, Maddox, Weber, Chacin, Smith

 

Those possibly traded/dfaed: Leon,Hembree, Bradley,Johnson,M Hernandez,Travis, Lin, Poyner, Brewer, Shawayan, Kelley

 

Opt out possible: Martinez

 

Those Gone: Cashner, Moreland, Nunez**, Pearce, Owings, Wright, Hembree,Brasier, Velazquez, G Hernandez, Centeno, Renda

 

Possible Added: Houck,Mata, Dalbec, Chatham, Okimey, Felton

 

Other: Castillo

 

Even this list leaves us possibly short on a backup catcher, starting pitching and also BP pitching. Good luck to our new decision maker. Will it be Mike Hazen?

 

You missed JDM. So by your estimation, you're keeping your entire team and shedding just the detritus

[moonslav59]

Yeah to be honest I've cheered most of his moves (especially extending Bogaerts). I've only had 3 quibbles:

1) I thought David Price got too nice a deal. I was glad we signed him, but I was worried that contract would become an albatross.

2) Trading Shaw for Thornburg. Didn't really matter in the end though.

3) Extending Sale. That was my one, "What are you thinking?" moment; it seemed obvious to me to wait & see how he'd do in his final year before extending him given his injured condition.

 

I suppose DD also got fired for the moves he didn't make.

 

Price was the best SP'er, besides maybe Scherzer to come on the market for a while. It had to be an overpay to get him.

 

Dubon hurts more than Shaw.

 

I still like the Sale extension and think he'd have gotten more on the open market had he been a FA after 2018.

 

I disliked the Kimbrel & Pom trades the most, but my beef with the CK deal was that he was getting near FA money at the time, and he cost us top prospects. Later, the closer costs went through the roof, so his $13M didn't look so bad.

[notin]

Sorry I thought he was fired. Did he actually leave on his own?

 

No. He was fired. Quitting is one of the moves he didn't make that lead to him getting fired...

[oldtimer]

And drafting guys with limited tool sets hurt as well. Yes, drafting late isn't great, but it isn't a zero sum game. His 16 draft netted him some prospects (Chatham and Dalbec), although nobody top notch outside of Groome who got hurt. 2017 hurts with Houck now a reliever and essentially the entire draft being a whiff. When you're drafting late and you don't have access to the top talents you have to at least net prospects somewhere. If Houck gets hurt before making the majors, the sox entire 2017 draft will be without a major league player. That is a rarity. 2018 was better with Casas as a true top 100 prospect and Duran being the one to move the fastest. 2019 is a big ?? right now. But when your 2016 is supposed to have a guy leading a rotation who didn't pitch for 2 seasons and the only other guys there are bit prospects with huge holes in their game, you lose some success. When you then whiff on the following year's draft, it leaves a bubble in your farm system with no upper level talent to speak of.

 

An article today under Red Sox Rumors claims we are going to be at $257 mil this year so the draft may be impacted again/I wonder if that number got DD fired?

[oldtimer]

You missed JDM. So by your estimation, you're keeping your entire team and shedding just the detritus

 

I didn't miss JDM, he is listed under possible Opt Out. I also have several who I don't see as detrius that are possible trades and/or DFAs. I certainly am not for blowing the team up. It probably won't be necessary to get below $208 mil for the reset. I did miss Duran though and he could make the team next season as an outfielder. The next GM will have some tough decisions and JDM and perhaps Mookie may make them for him.

[kenmeister]

Price was the best SP'er, besides maybe Scherzer to come on the market for a while. It had to be an overpay to get him.

 

Dubon hurts more than Shaw.

 

I still like the Sale extension and think he'd have gotten more on the open market had he been a FA after 2018.

 

I disliked the Kimbrel & Pom trades the most, but my beef with the CK deal was that he was getting near FA money at the time, and he cost us top prospects. Later, the closer costs went through the roof, so his $13M didn't look so bad.

 

Who's Dubon?

 

I really don't like the Sale extension. This guy has been really badly injured since 2/3 of the way through last season and I don't see an end in sight. Maybe just watching the Cespedes, Pedroia, and Ellsbury situations has made me overly concerned about people who will never take the field again. Speaking of which, I didn't expect Price to be as injured as he's been as well. One thing after another.

[notin]

You missed JDM. So by your estimation, you're keeping your entire team and shedding just the detritus

 

No he didn't. He listed him as "Possible opt out"

[notin]

Who's Dubon?

 

I really don't like the Sale extension. This guy has been really badly injured since 2/3 of the way through last season and I don't see an end in sight. Maybe just watching the Cespedes, Pedroia, and Ellsbury situations has made me overly concerned about people who will never take the field again. Speaking of which, I didn't expect Price to be as injured as he's been as well. One thing after another.

 

I was worried at the time, but I assumed DD had done his homework on Sale's physical condition. All my worries resurfaced by bout the 3rd inning of opening day.

 

But there is reason for optimism with Sale. His FIP is 3.39 and his xFIP is 2.93. Normally in a case like this, it seems to be possible some bad luck involved. But in Sale's case it just seemed like a durability issue. He'd cruise along for 3 innings facing 9 or 10 batters, and then he'd just implode and give up 4 runs...

[moonslav59]

Who's Dubon?

 

I really don't like the Sale extension. This guy has been really badly injured since 2/3 of the way through last season and I don't see an end in sight. Maybe just watching the Cespedes, Pedroia, and Ellsbury situations has made me overly concerned about people who will never take the field again. Speaking of which, I didn't expect Price to be as injured as he's been as well. One thing after another.

 

Mauricio Dubon- .820 OPS in 36 PAs in MLB and better than any Sox 2Bman. (.813 in almost 900 PAs at AAA.)

 

He was part of the Thornburg deal.

[oldtimer]

Mauricio Dubon- .820 OPS in 36 PAs in MLB and better than any Sox 2Bman. (.813 in almost 900 PAs at AAA.)

 

He was part of the Thornburg deal.

 

Trades usually work with both parties getting something nearly equal in value which fits their parrticular needs. In this case we got very little and they got something pretty good. Bad result for us but that can and will happen. If it happens too often, the GM may pay the price.

[moonslav59]

Trades usually work with both parties getting something nearly equal in value which fits their parrticular needs. In this case we got very little and they got something pretty good. Bad result for us but that can and will happen. If it happens too often, the GM may pay the price.

 

Thornburg had some nasty stuff and off-the-charts numbers before the trade.

 

The trade made sense, until we found out about the severe injury. It's hard to blame the GM for this type of deal, but yes, GMs are always judged on hindsight and are expected to know who will be getting hurt (sarcasm alert).

 

[OH FOY]

Dubon also started 395 games at SS, and only 65 at 2nd, in the Minors.

Like that versatility in case of injury. Yanks that with Torres when DD went down this year.

Surprised many don't remember Dubon and that Salem team, with Moncada leading off, Dubon Batting 2nd, and Benni 3rd. They were awesome that year, 2016.

Dubon batted collectively in Double AA and Salem, batted .323 with 6 HRS, and 69 RBI"s, and 30 stolen bases. Then the clown Dombrowski Traded him and only got better.

Crawford keeps struggling, Dubon could move to SS for the Giants.

[OH FOY]

He didn't have to throw in Dubon, Brewers already had a strong BP, Shaw, and a lesser Minor leaguer would have worked. Before that good season Thornburg had pitched 2 seasons, 64 innings, with a 3.96 ERA.

You absolutely have to know which Minor Leaguers, have a good ceiling, before you deal. Even though we had Bogaerts, Pedey was starting to get up in age at that point.

There is no Hindsight if you are a good evaluator. Many teams will not give up a Prospect, because they know the Prospect ceiling. At least the smart one do, if they pay attention to their Farm.

Edited September 11, 2019 by OH FOY!

[Bellhorn04]

He didn't have to throw in Dubon, Brewers already had a strong BP, Shaw, and a lesser Minor leaguer would have worked. Before that good season Thornburg had pitched 2 seasons, 64 innings, with a 3.96 ERA.

You absolutely have to know which Minor Leaguers, have a good ceiling, before you deal. Even though we had Bogaerts, Pedey was starting to get up in age at that point.

 

On that deal, and the Kimbrel deal, it's almost like the other team said 'Can we have one more please, Dave?' and Dave said 'Yeah, yeah, just be quick about it, I don't have all day.'

[OH FOY]

Yep, agree, he threw in that Lefty to the Padres, like that too. He gave up valuable assets, that many who don't follow the Minors, that is hurting us now. Edited September 11, 2019 by OH FOY!

[notin]

Yep, agree, he threw in that Lefty to the Padres, like that too. He gave up valuable assets, that many who don't follow the Minors, that is hurting us now.

 

Many of us said this at the time of those trades.

 

Had Dombrowski had a better sense of the ceiling of these prospects, would he have been able to hold on to Logan Allen and Dubon and still get Thornburg and Kimbrel? We'll never know.

 

I did think the Kimbrel deal especially was a massive overpay because Kimbrel was already the highest paid closer in the league and San Diego ate none of it. There was leverage there, like DD reminding them "Look you take two top 100 prospects in Margot and Guerra and I'll even throw in Asuaje, or you can foot the entire bill for Kimbrel for the 30 or so games you might have with save situations."

[jacksonianmarch]

The additions of Allen and Dubon were certainly suspicious, but DD has always been an overpay kind of guy. He sees the guy he wants, he gives them the price they want.

[moonslav59]

We'll see more about how all those trades worked out over the next few years.

 

We won a ring, so that helps balance any judgment, but the hindsight jury is still out on many deals.

[notin]

The additions of Allen and Dubon were certainly suspicious, but DD has always been an overpay kind of guy. He sees the guy he wants, he gives them the price they want.

 

I wouldn't say that.

 

He overpaid for Kimbrel and Thornburg, but I wouldn't say Sale was an overpay. Expensive? Yes, but not an overpay. He also didn't overpay for Miguel Cabrera back when he was in Detroit. He dd extend him for years beyond Cabrera's usefulness and hamstrung that franchise for years and years. But he didn't overpay in the original trade.

 

I think DD's problem is he had no idea how to value relievers. His two biggest overpays with Boston were for relievers, and if there is any constant throughout his history, it's either in ignoring he bullpen or building a questionable one. Some of his questionable bullpen moves have paid off, but a lot have not....

Edited September 11, 2019 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

We'll see more about how all those trades worked out over the next few years.

 

We won a ring, so that helps balance any judgment, but the hindsight jury is still out on many deals.

 

The hindsight jury - I like that one a lot. And they can be out for years sometimes.

[dgalehouse]

For the most part , the prospects D.D. traded have not amounted to all that much . Moncada being the only one we could have used . And you don't get Sale without dealing him . We will see about Dubon . Anyway , Devers is better than any of them . And Logan Allen is not exactly the next Koufax . How can you say it was worth it because we won a ring , and then keep crying about the lost " prospects " ? The jury has already given their verdict . Case is closed .

[Slasher9]

For the most part , the prospects D.D. traded have not amounted to all that much . Moncada being the only one we could have used . And you don't get Sale without dealing him . We will see about Dubon . Anyway , Devers is better than any of them . And Logan Allen is not exactly the next Koufax . How can you say it was worth it because we won a ring , and then keep crying about the lost " prospects " ? The jury has already given their verdict . Case is closed .

 

you are missing the point most of us have with the overpays. he overpayed for kimbrell, pom, thornburg. i am not sure of the timing of thornburg but the kimbrell and pom overpays were before Sale. we could have used some of those overpay prospects in a deal to chicago for sale and STILL HAD MONCADA playing 2b for us for the next handful of years.....