A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[harmony]

The Boston Globe's Alex Speier offers his take:

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/08/06/onball/YL8h2fUTi7iVmEuRyT1USI/story.html?et_rid=1739401789&s_campaign=108stitches:newsletter

[FredLynn]

That is so correct. We need to reset next year. We also need to find a GM attuned to the rebuild process.

 

I think we reset the following year. This team greatly underperformed this year. I think there is something still left in the tank for 2020. After than.....not so much.

[dannycater]

The Red Sox are 17-5 the last 22 times a starting pitcher recorded 18 outs. That shows you just how pathetic the starting staff has been because they can't make it to the 6th and the record for the team is under .500 and then some when the SP can't make it to the 6th. Starting staff simply has been a disaster.

[dgalehouse]

The Sox struggles this year has spawned a host of deep thinking , excuses and possible solutions , finger pointing , explanations , alibis , pages and pages of stats , sample sizes and time frames and numerous crazy ideas and proposals. Old Occams's Razor would be laughing and saying " It's the bullpen stupid." Sometimes the simplest explanation is the correct one .

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox struggles this year has spawned a host of deep thinking , excuses and possible solutions , finger pointing , explanations , alibis , pages and pages of stats , sample sizes and time frames and numerous crazy ideas and proposals. Old Occams's Razor would be laughing and saying " It's the bullpen stupid." Sometimes the simplest explanation is the correct one .

 

You still really think it's more the bullpen than the starting pitching?

 

I think it's actually been a while since the bullpen blew a game.

 

The starting pitching has been so bad, the bullpen doesn't really get that chance...

[kenmeister]

The Sox struggles this year has spawned a host of deep thinking , excuses and possible solutions , finger pointing , explanations , alibis , pages and pages of stats , sample sizes and time frames and numerous crazy ideas and proposals. Old Occams's Razor would be laughing and saying " It's the bullpen stupid." Sometimes the simplest explanation is the correct one .

 

It's the starters. Interestingly, earlier in the year relievers like Brasier and Barnes and Walden were doing fantastic. I think they just got overworked because the starters couldn't even go 5 reliably.

[notin]

It's the starters. Interestingly, earlier in the year relievers like Brasier and Barnes and Walden were doing fantastic. I think they just got overworked because the starters couldn't even go 5 reliably.

 

Brasier and Walden are career minor leaguers. Eventually reality was bound to cartch up..,

[dgalehouse]

I do not exonerate the rotation at all . But the idea that they are the main problem is something that has been promoted by some of the more influential posters as a means of deflecting from the predictable failures of the bullpen. Then , others pick up on it .The bullpen struggling because they are overworked is a myth . The struggles are due to the shortage of quality arms . This was apparent from day one . Is the Yankee's rotation any better than ours ? I don't think so . And , Tampa Bay doesn't even have a rotation to speak of .

[notin]

I do not exonerate the rotation at all . But the idea that they are the main problem is something that has been promoted by some of the more influential posters as a means of deflecting from the predictable failures of the bullpen. Then , others pick up on it .The bullpen struggling because they are overworked is a myth . The struggles are due to the shortage of quality arms . This was apparent from day one . Is the Yankee's rotation any better than ours ? I don't think so . And , Tampa Bay doesn't even have a rotation to speak of .

 

 

The bullpen has definite weaknesses, and was built on too many snap judgments. The failure to get another reliever at any point this season has been a huge problem. The only relievers to pitch for the Sox this year who wasn’t part of last year’s World Series team are Colten Brewer and Ryan Weber. Yes THOSE are the pitchers replacing Kimbrel and Kelly...

[Bellhorn04]

I do not exonerate the rotation at all . But the idea that they are the main problem is something that has been promoted by some of the more influential posters as a means of deflecting from the predictable failures of the bullpen.

 

You have to be kidding.

 

Rick Porcello 5.54 ERA

Chris Sale 4.68

David Price 4.36

Eovaldi injured

Cashner 7.53

Other spot starters - horrendous

 

Yeah, sure, 'influential posters' are just making up stuff about the starters to cover up for the bullpen.

[dgalehouse]

You have to be kidding.

 

Rick Porcello 5.54 ERA

Chris Sale 4.68

David Price 4.36

Eovaldi injured

Cashner 7.53

Other spot starters - horrendous

 

Yeah, sure, 'influential posters' are just making up stuff about the starters to cover up for the bullpen.

 

I'm not kidding . I said from the get - go that the bullpen was going to be a problem. And it has . Others said that it would be fine . They were wrong. But they are not about to admit it . So , they are blaming " overwork " due to the rotation failures . ( Maybe the rotation is demoralized by the blown saves . ) Who knows ? If you mention saves and blown saves , they talk about flaws in the save / blown save rule . Anything but admit what has been obvious from the start . What about the Yankee' s rotation ? Has that killed their bullpen? Bottom line : You ideally want a good pitching staff , both starters and relievers . But the bullpen is very , very important in today's game . Some folks ( apparently including Dombrowski) have still not realized that . No , I'm not kidding. And I was not kidding during the off season .

[harmony]

I'm not kidding . I said from the get - go that the bullpen was going to be a problem. And it has . Others said that it would be fine . They were wrong. But they are not about to admit it . So , they are blaming " overwork " due to the rotation failures . ( Maybe the rotation is demoralized by the blown saves . ) Who knows ? If you mention saves and blown saves , they talk about flaws in the save / blown save rule . Anything but admit what has been obvious from the start . What about the Yankee' s rotation ? Has that killed their bullpen? Bottom line : You ideally want a good pitching staff , both starters and relievers . But the bullpen is very , very important in today's game . Some folks ( apparently including Dombrowski) have still not realized that . No , I'm not kidding. And I was not kidding during the off season .

For what it's worth, the Red Sox rank eighth in the league in fWAR among starters:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=al&qual=0&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31

 

... and seventh among relievers:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=al&qual=0&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31

 

... and third among position players:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=

Edited August 7, 2019 by harmony

[moonslav59]

I do not exonerate the rotation at all . But the idea that they are the main problem is something that has been promoted by some of the more influential posters as a means of deflecting from the predictable failures of the bullpen. Then , others pick up on it .The bullpen struggling because they are overworked is a myth . The struggles are due to the shortage of quality arms . This was apparent from day one . Is the Yankee's rotation any better than ours ? I don't think so . And , Tampa Bay doesn't even have a rotation to speak of .

 

Forget expectations. The starters are more responsible for our losses than the pen. The pen has been more responsible for wins than the starters.

 

It's not even close.

 

I did a game by game study using two different criteria. It's not even close.

[dgalehouse]

Trying to convince people of something they didn't ever want to believe is a losing proposition. It was the same thing after the 2013 championship. People , to this day , refuse to believe that Cherington blew it through complacency and standing pat . Nothing can change their mind . Deja vu . Nothing more to say . Just leave you with two easy to answer questions. 1 - How many games are we behind the Yankees ? 2 - What is the one , obvious difference in the two teams ?

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not kidding . I said from the get - go that the bullpen was going to be a problem. And it has . Others said that it would be fine . They were wrong. But they are not about to admit it . So , they are blaming " overwork " due to the rotation failures . ( Maybe the rotation is demoralized by the blown saves . ) Who knows ? If you mention saves and blown saves , they talk about flaws in the save / blown save rule . Anything but admit what has been obvious from the start . What about the Yankee' s rotation ? Has that killed their bullpen? Bottom line : You ideally want a good pitching staff , both starters and relievers . But the bullpen is very , very important in today's game . Some folks ( apparently including Dombrowski) have still not realized that . No , I'm not kidding. And I was not kidding during the off season .

 

You keep bringing the Yankees into it. It's true that their bullpen is much better than ours, and that the strength of their bullpen offsets the weakness of their rotation.

 

But their bullpen was much better than ours last year, too. The difference is that last year our starting rotation was much better than theirs. It was expected to be the same this year. We were supposed to be constructed more like this year's Astros pitching staff, whose strength is in the rotation.

 

I don't disagree that DD neglected the bullpen this year or that it cost us some wins.

 

But you're so fixated on the bullpen that you can't see that the real disaster has been the starters.

[jung]

Everybody knew the Pen would be an issue this year. This is particularly true since bullpen arms are a blind spot for DD...always have been.

 

However, the real issue is that while DD is right that the team was built around its rotation being right in this case does not help anything. Therein lies the problem. The rotation has underperformed to expectation to a degree that is just bombastic if not catastrophic. The expectation for this rotation was not that it would putz around at about mid pack or worse to the rest of this league of laughably inept pitchers. The expectation was that the rotation would be either 1 or 2 or 3 in the league. They have been stunningly bad and I don't think that is hyperbole.

 

Yes, the fact that the entire pen has been used early and often means that the weaker arms wear out quickly and the stronger arms wear out eventually because you keep having to come back to guys like Hembree, Barnes, Workman cause that is about all they can do.

 

The entire idea that we might get by with this pen was predicated on having one of the top 3 rotations in the league mated to a monster offensive talent pool and a ho-hum pen. Do we have one of the top 3 rotations even in this league of Keystone Kops pitchers?

 

I happen to think the entire pitching staff has underperformed. But the underperformance of the rotation is the most shocking and the most unexpected underperformance without question and its underperformance to expectation has just rippled through the dugout and the organization. If major overhauls to Management outside of Cora don't occur at year end, I will be much surprised. I suspect some players will be leaving town as well.

Edited August 7, 2019 by jung

[moonslav59]

Trying to convince people of something they didn't ever want to believe is a losing proposition. It was the same thing after the 2013 championship. People , to this day , refuse to believe that Cherington blew it through complacency and standing pat . Nothing can change their mind . Deja vu . Nothing more to say . Just leave you with two easy to answer questions. 1 - How many games are we behind the Yankees ? 2 - What is the one , obvious difference in the two teams ?

 

The difference you want to hear is blown saves. That's all that matters to you. The difference in blown saves is about how far behind we are. It's so simple- for you.

 

Our starters have lost way more games than our pen. You can ignore that fact, but it is a fact.

 

[moonslav59]

Forget "overuse".

 

Forget "expectations."

 

The starters have lost more games for us that the pen.

 

The pen has won more games for us that the starters.

 

It's not even close.

[Bellhorn04]

Let's just compare our 2019 ERA splits to our 2018 splits:

 

2019

Starters 5.08

Relievers 4.46

 

2018

Starters 3.77

Relievers 3.72

 

Increase

Starters 1.31

Relievers .74

 

The starters have gotten worse by 77% more than the relievers have.

[dgalehouse]

The difference you want to hear is blown saves. That's all that matters to you. The difference in blown saves is about how far behind we are. It's so simple- for you.

 

Our starters have lost way more games than our pen. You can ignore that fact, but it is a fact.

 

That is a faulty premise . The starters can lose a game without the bullpen even getting a chance to . But the starters can pitch well and have a chance to win , only to see the pen blow it .

[Key2Delock]

Remember when there were five Red Sox World Series championship teams between 1903 and 1918? Remember when it took from 1919 until 1938 for the Red Sox to finish as high as second in the eight-team American League standings, while they were finishing last in the league in nine of those seasons and never higher than fourth? LINK

 

The Red Sox didn’t get to the World Series again until 1946 when they lost in seven games to the Cardinals, and then when Red Sox fans’ hopes were dashed again in 1967, 1975 and 1986, it seemed like The Curse of the Bambino might last for 100 years or more.

 

Leaving Shea Stadium after the seventh game of the 1986 World Series, I never expected to be alive to see what happened in 2004, 2007, 2013 and 2018. As unlikely as it appears now, maybe, by some miraculous turnaround, the Red Sox can squeeze into the 2019 playoffs.

 

Yet when I read that the Red Sox are considered to have the worst farm system in the Major Leagues, I wonder whether it might take 10 to 20 years for the Red Sox to rebuild their farm system. THAT’s what concerns me more than the struggles of this season’s Red Sox pitching staff.

[dgalehouse]

Now we are claiming to know how the team was constructed. The bullpen was an afterthought because we had a highly paid rotation . That would be enough . If true , that is not very smart to begin with . But what I really want to know is , why is it that the fans who insisted that everything would be fine , are now the first ones to throw in the towel and quit on the season ? The season still has plenty remaining. In the ( hokey ) second wild card , we are chasing two overachieving, but flawed teams that could well stumble. But these fans have already given up . It is crazy.

[Bellhorn04]

Now we are claiming to know how the team was constructed. The bullpen was an afterthought because we had a highly paid rotation . That would be enough . If true , that is not very smart to begin with . But what I really want to know is , why is it that the fans who insisted that everything would be fine , are now the first ones to throw in the towel and quit on the season ? The season still has plenty remaining. In the ( hokey ) second wild card , we are chasing two overachieving, but flawed teams that could well stumble. But these fans have already given up . It is crazy.

 

You're really just throwing stuff out there. Obviously one of the posters you're talking about who approved of this year's bullpen was Kimmi. And she doesn't give up until we're mathematically eliminated.

[dgalehouse]

You're really just throwing stuff out there. Obviously one of the posters you're talking about who approved of this year's bullpen was Kimmi. And she doesn't give up until we're mathematically eliminated.

She has not given up . Neither have I . But many have . And I think I need to take a break from this .

[moonslav59]

That is a faulty premise . The starters can lose a game without the bullpen even getting a chance to . But the starters can pitch well and have a chance to win , only to see the pen blow it .

 

I used two methods to judge each game one-by-one:

 

The first was: who pitched better in each game. The RP'ers blew away the starters.

 

The second was giving a +2, +1, 0, -1 or -2 value for each game to the starters and the pen. The pen blew away the starters here, too.

 

Yes, I get that the starters usually pitch more innings, but I went by ERA per start or pen totals.

 

What about games where the starter lets up 5 runs in 3 IP and the pen shuts em down for 6 IP and we lose 6-5?

 

How is that any different from a blown save? That game was lost by the starter. Call it a "blown start."

 

Yes, the Yanks have many "blown starts", too, but just because they have way less blown saves than us does not mean blown saves is the major reason we are where we are right now.

 

Both the pen and the starters have sucked. The starters have sucked more, and it's not even close.

 

As for posters admitting they were wrong. I was terribly wrong about this year.

 

I knew our pen was our weakest area, and I thought the rest of the team could carry us until we made a mid season trade for a RP'er. That didn't happen.

 

The offense carried their weight . The defense slipped a little despite Devers' growth at 3B. The pen did worse than I expected, despite me not expecting much. I was wrong about the pen.

 

I was much more wrong about the rotation. DEAD Wrong!

[kenmeister]

Even just watching the games has told me the starters are the bigger problem; no need for careful analysis. It feels like every game they dig a hole for us and exit early. Let's hope tonight is different with ERod on the mound.

[oldtimer]

Even just watching the games has told me the starters are the bigger problem; no need for careful analysis. It feels like every game they dig a hole for us and exit early. Let's hope tonight is different with ERod on the mound.

 

I agree, the starters have been and remain the biggest problem. The BP is not a strength either and perhaps has a partial excus of being overused. Add to that we seem to have a problem scoring with RISP. We do score a lot of runs but they have not been coming when we need them.

 

We started the season with some of us concerned that our offensive production was not good from the catcher position and finally decided to let go of Swihart thinking we could hide poor offensive at catcher since we were so solid up and down the rest of the order. Luckily Vaz has improved a lot and we only have to hide Leon who remains as a weak spot and he is Sales homeboy so plays on those days at a minimum.

 

JBJ was talking up how he had learned a lot last year and gave us hope that his streakiness would be reduced. Instead he had a terrible first couple of months , showed some improvement but is back into a slump again.

 

The hope of having the old Pedroia back went south immediately and we have limped along trying Nunez, some of Holt and finally tried Chavis who had a remarkable start until ML pitching caught up. He at least is showing some life.

 

At first we had Moreland hitting well until injured, Pearce a non-factor all year and now Travis who is a fill in player but not much of an offensive threat. The injury took the starch out of Moreland

 

The point is we were relying on the top of the order for the majority of the production while our bottom 3 or 4 don't scare opposing pitchers. It has to impact ouroffensive production. The best teams have more production up and down the lineup and we should head in that direction in 2020 and beyond. Get rid of the deadwood if at all possible.

 

Clearly the biggest move will still need to involve shoring up both the starters and the pen. It won't be simple to do with massive and unproductive pitching contracts.

[moonslav59]

I don't think the pen being overworked argument is a strong one. Here's why:

 

1) Most teams have starters going fewer and fewer innings over recent years, so our situation is not much different than other teams'.

2) Many teams have a 7 man pen: we have had an 8 man pen all year. I can't remember when that last happened with us.

3) Most of our RP'ers are not on pace for more IP than last year or two.

 

Barnes pitched 66.2, 69.2 & 61.2 IP the last 3 years.

He's on pace for about 55 IP, this year.

 

Workman has been hurt the last few years and had 41.1 IP, last year.

He's already had more IP and is on pace for about 67 IP- not an abnormal amount of innings for a RP'er.

 

Walden was mostly a SP'er in 2017 and had 105.2 IP plus 21.2 in the fall league.

He's on pace for about 76 IP this year.

 

Brasier pitched 78 innings in AAA & MLB, last year.

He's on pace for about 50 IP, this year.

 

Hembree, Johnson and Velazquez are all on pace for less IP- some due to injuries, some due to just plain sucking.

 

Only Workman has met or exceeded expectation in the pen.

 

The pen has sucked more than they were supposed to suck, no doubt.

 

It's not from overwork. We have 13 pitchers with more than 11 IP from the pen. Another 8 pitchers have combined for over 36 innings.

Edited August 8, 2019 by moonslav59

[jung]

I don't think the pen being overworked argument is a strong one. Here's why:

 

1) Most teams have starters going fewer and fewer innings over recent years, so our situation is not much different than other teams'.

2) Many teams have a 7 man pen: we have had an 8 man pen all year. I can't remember when that last happened with us.

3) Most of our RP'ers are not on pace for more IP than last year or two.

 

Barnes pitched 66.2, 69.2 & 61.2 IP the last 3 years.

He's on pace for about 55 IP, this year.

 

Workman has been hurt the last few years and had 41.1 IP, last year.

He's already had more IP and is on pace for about 67 IP- not an abnormal amount of innings for a RP'er.

 

Walden was mostly a SP'er in 2017 and had 105.2 IP plus 21.2 in the fall league.

He's on pace for about 76 IP this year.

 

Brasier pitched 78 innings in AAA & MLB, last year.

He's on pace for about 50 IP, this year.

 

Hembree, Johnson and Velazquez are all on pace for less IP- some due to injuries, some due to just plain sucking.

 

Only Workman has met or exceeded expectation in the pen.

 

The pen has sucked more than they were supposed to suck, no doubt.

 

It's not from overwork. We have 13 pitchers with more than 11 IP from the pen. Another 8 pitchers have combined for over 36 innings.

 

We really only had one guy that Cora was willing to give the fireman role to and that was Barnes. Barnes absolutely got overused because he got so many of the high stress relief assignments as Mr Fireman. Early on Brasier got the other high stress relief innings and he folded like an aluminum lawn chair. IMO, the only guys that were really getting high stress assignments of any sort for the entire season were Barnes...overworked in that role, Hembree....broke down in that role, Brasier....folded like a cheap suit in that role and Workman who turned out to be a workhorse. He is the only guy that survived it.

Edited August 8, 2019 by jung

[jung]

Just as an aside, as for how the team was constructed, DD himself came out and said more than once this year and most recently just today that "THE TEAM WAS BUILT AROUND ITS ROTATION".