A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[notin]

Why do you pur Beni in the bad column when his OPS is essentially the same and he is playing well now?

 

He is comparing numbers to last year. Better = good. Worse = bad...

[oldtimer]

He is comparing numbers to last year. Better = good. Worse = bad...

 

I get that. The thing is when doing the comparison, there should be some band within which it is so close that it is about the same. Also, he used bad even when better, provided the number was on the low side. I agree with that part.

[Bellhorn04]

I get that. The thing is when doing the comparison, there should be some band within which it is so close that it is about the same. Also, he used bad even when better, provided the number was on the low side. I agree with that part.

 

Yes, I agree. Not being critical of moonslav, but there should be a category for 'Indifferent', or 'No Significant Change'.

[notin]

I get that. The thing is when doing the comparison, there should be some band within which it is so close that it is about the same. Also, he used bad even when better, provided the number was on the low side. I agree with that part.

 

Well, he used bad when a player was getting a lot better. But his simple “line in the sand technique doesn’t ignore Benintendi’s slow start...

[oldtimer]

Well, he used bad when a player was getting a lot better. But his simple “line in the sand technique doesn’t ignore Benintendi’s slow start...

 

Benintendi's recent performance has been outstanding and he has lifted his overall performance to the equivalent of whatt he did on average last year. I expect his numbers for the year will be superior to those of last year.

[Kimmi]

This team is so reminiscent of the 2012 team. Great on paper but awful on the field. Every now and then, the 2012 Sox would put together a mini streak that gave you some hope, like that Cody Ross series against the White Sox. But then they’d follow it up by floundering hopelessly and making you mad at yourself for thinking they had a chance...

 

More like the 2014 team, IMO.

 

2012, aka the Bobby Valentine fiasco, doesn't count.

[Kimmi]

Should I start the "A Realistic View at 2020: Part I," now?

 

NO!

[oldtimer]

Should I start the "A Realistic View at 2020: Part I," now?

 

In that realistic view for 2020, it might be sensible to indicate what we have to do to structure the team to be competitive with the best. By that I mean the Astros and Yankees and perhaps also recognize the improvement of the Rays and even Cleveland.

 

What have they done that we haven't matched, and what we would have to do to be competitve given our current contractual situations and weak farm system.

 

Some questions that need to be asked:

 

1. The Astros appear to be strong up and down their lineup despite the fact they still have stars to pay. We appear to be weak in the lower part of our order with Chavis, JBJ, Leon, Travis there. Can we afford to strengthen the bottom and still pay our stars? I assume we have no star in the making for field player or catcher who can be better at least in 2020. Should we bring up potential players and see what they can do/

 

2. The Astros have a very strong starting pitcher lineup. Our starters certainly haven't been nearly as good from April on and are probably on the decline, yet drawing high salaries. Porcello is replaceable. Price is probably not given his contract. Sale may find himself but is still unlikely to regain his ace level performance. So it looks like we have to build upon the starters of E-Rod and possibly Eovaldi. Will Sale regain some form and will Price wind up as a $32 mil 4th or 5th starter. Big problems here and no solution that is obvious. Is there also a management/coaching aspect to the negative direction of our starter performance?

 

3. Our BP is weak with Workman, Hernandez, Taylor being our more reliable arms (Hernandez is iffy if he can't throw strikes), where do we go? Hembree and Barnes has shown flashes but both can blow leads with wildness and perhaps an inability to handle pressure. DD's efforts to enhance the BP failed due to bad luck or bad vetting. Perhaps the coaching coupled with poor starter performances can be pointed at.

 

4. What are the scenarios, no matter how drastic, will be required to head us on the right path to making this team competitive again? Moon is the most acquainted with how the contractual situation will play out for the next few years and that will govern how much we can do. I assume we will want to reset below the first tier of the competitive balance tax in 2020.

 

5. Do the current leaders have the strengths needed to address the significant changes which are needed to compete with the best teams?

[moonslav59]

In that realistic view for 2020, it might be sensible to indicate what we have to do to structure the team to be competitive with the best. By that I mean the Astros and Yankees and perhaps also recognize the improvement of the Rays and even Cleveland.

 

What have they done that we haven't matched, and what we would have to do to be competitve given our current contractual situations and weak farm system.

 

Some questions that need to be asked:

 

1. The Astros appear to be strong up and down their lineup despite the fact they still have stars to pay. We appear to be weak in the lower part of our order with Chavis, JBJ, Leon, Travis there. Can we afford to strengthen the bottom and still pay our stars? I assume we have no star in the making for field player or catcher who can be better at least in 2020. Should we bring up potential players and see what they can do/

 

2. The Astros have a very strong starting pitcher lineup. Our starters certainly haven't been nearly as good from April on and are probably on the decline, yet drawing high salaries. Porcello is replaceable. Price is probably not given his contract. Sale may find himself but is still unlikely to regain his ace level performance. So it looks like we have to build upon the starters of E-Rod and possibly Eovaldi. Will Sale regain some form and will Price wind up as a $32 mil 4th or 5th starter. Big problems here and no solution that is obvious. Is there also a management/coaching aspect to the negative direction of our starter performance?

 

3. Our BP is weak with Workman, Hernandez, Taylor being our more reliable arms (Hernandez is iffy if he can't throw strikes), where do we go? Hembree and Barnes has shown flashes but both can blow leads with wildness and perhaps an inability to handle pressure. DD's efforts to enhance the BP failed due to bad luck or bad vetting. Perhaps the coaching coupled with poor starter performances can be pointed at.

 

4. What are the scenarios, no matter how drastic, will be required to head us on the right path to making this team competitive again? Moon is the most acquainted with how the contractual situation will play out for the next few years and that will govern how much we can do. I assume we will want to reset below the first tier of the competitive balance tax in 2020.

 

5. Do the current leaders have the strengths needed to address the significant changes which are needed to compete with the best teams?

 

I think trying to stay highly competitive in 2020 would be a great mistake. It would likely prolong the return to greatness. It would have to include massive spending, because there is no other way to stay near the top next year. We have very few ML ready prospects that promise significant impact.

 

We need to identify which players will still be in top form by the year we set as the year of our return and get rid of the rest, even if it means paying significant parts of their contracts.

 

Assuming we try to compete in 2021:

 

Keepers:

Devers

Bogaerts

Betts (re-sign for 2021 & beyond)

ERod (FA in 2022)

Beni (FA in 2023)

Vazquez (Option for 2022)

Chavis

Hernandez

Travis, Dalbec, DHern, Lin, Walden, Taylor, Chatham, Duran, Ockimey

 

Possible re-sign, if the price is right:

Holt

Leon

 

May keep due to limited trade value, but look to trade 1, so we can reset the luxury tax for 2021:

Price

Sale

Eovaldi

JD Martinez

Pedroia

 

Look to trade:

Bradley (FA in 2021)

Workman (FA in 2021)

Barnes (FA in 2022)

Hembree (FA in 2022)

Wright (FA in 2021)

Brasier, Johnson, Velazquez, Brewer

 

Do not Re-sign:

Porcello

Moreland

Pearce

Cashner

 

1) Reset the tax in 2020 with the idea that we can spend large for 2021, if the outlook looks right.

2) Keep only players who will have positive value in 2021 or 2022 & beyond.

 

There is no easy way to rebuild the farm. Going over the tax lines every year and continuously having low draft picks and limited international pool money makes it nearly impossible, unless you have a sell off and/or a down year or two with a reset tax budget.

 

[moonslav59]

Why do you put Beni in the bad column when his OPS is essentially the same and he is playing well now?

 

Because his defense has declined, and he was supposed to improve in all areas at his age.

 

My guess is, he will end up with a lower OPS this year, but even if he doesn't, he has not met my 2019 expectations.

[moonslav59]

Moon, it's almost time for Realistic View at 2019 Part III

 

It's time to follow Kimmi's approach and rebuild......

 

I'm excited about Dalbec moving up to AAA.

 

I'm excited for our young/veteran talent under contract/control, led by Xavier, Devers, Chavis, Hernandez (both).

 

Mookie and JBJ are rentals as far as I'm concerned.

 

Let's rebuild. Quit starting guys like Johnson. He's got no future, no ceiling. Mediocre at best. I rather see younger guys get his opportunity.

 

This organization need to have a Jesus meeting and discuss its failure of developing young starting pitching. What the hell?

 

If we're going to lose, lose with younger kids. Thank Moreland and Pearce, let them sit this one out.

 

It's time to move on.....

 

I totally agree, but I might allow Johnson to keep pitching, in hopes he builds trade value.

 

I don't see any AAA guys I think are being held back by Johnson. Maybe go with a 6 man rotation to get someone some starts and to try and lessen the chances Sale or Price get hurt.

[moonslav59]

 

So I am not sure focusing on how many hitters are producing a .900+ OPS as much as it might be focusing on how many guys have moved from .650+ to .750+ and how many guys have moved from .750+ to .825+.

 

That one post by me did focus on just those over .880, but even if you look at over .800 or over .750 or over .700, we are right there with any other top hitting team.

 

We are more balanced than last year.

 

Our top 9 players by PAs are at .720 or higher. Our #10 guy (Holt) is at .782. Marco & Travis may crack the top 12 or 13 and be over .720.

 

Our #9 guy, JBJ, has been at .886 in his last 63 games and 258 PAs.

 

Compare these numbers to 2018:

 

We had 2 of our top 6 PA guys at .717 or under (JBJ at .717 and Nunez at .677.) Our starting catchers (#10 & 11 in PAs) were between .511 and .540.

 

2018 (13 guys over 180 PAs):

2 guys over 1.000

0 guys .900 to .999

2 guys .800 to .899

5 guys .700 to .799 (4 under .758)

2 guys .600 to .699 (both under .677)

2 guys .500 to .599 (both under .540)

 

2019 (13 guys projected to be over 180 PAs):

0 over 1.000

3 at .900 to .999

5 at .800 to .899

3 at .700 to .799 (2 over .773)

1 at .600 to .699 (Travis at .673)

1 at .500 to .599 (Leon at .559)

 

We will likely double the amount of players over .800 (4 to 8) and halve the amount under .699 (4 to 2)

[oldtimer]

I think trying to stay highly competitive in 2020 would be a great mistake. It would likely prolong the return to greatness. It would have to include massive spending, because there is no other way to stay near the top next year. We have very few ML ready prospects that promise significant impact.

 

We need to identify which players will still be in top form by the year we set as the year of our return and get rid of the rest, even if it means paying significant parts of their contracts.

 

Assuming we try to compete in 2021:

 

Keepers:

Devers

Bogaerts

Betts (re-sign for 2021 & beyond)

ERod (FA in 2022)

Beni (FA in 2023)

Vazquez (Option for 2022)

Chavis

Hernandez

Travis, Dalbec, DHern, Lin, Walden, Taylor, Chatham, Duran, Ockimey

 

Possible re-sign, if the price is right:

Holt

Leon

 

May keep due to limited trade value, but look to trade 1, so we can reset the luxury tax for 2021:

Price

Sale

Eovaldi

JD Martinez

Pedroia

 

Look to trade:

Bradley (FA in 2021)

Workman (FA in 2021)

Barnes (FA in 2022)

Hembree (FA in 2022)

Wright (FA in 2021)

Brasier, Johnson, Velazquez, Brewer

 

Do not Re-sign:

Porcello

Moreland

Pearce

Cashner

 

1) Reset the tax in 2020 with the idea that we can spend large for 2021, if the outlook looks right.

2) Keep only players who will have positive value in 2021 or 2022 & beyond.

 

There is no easy way to rebuild the farm. Going over the tax lines every year and continuously having low draft picks and limited international pool money makes it nearly impossible, unless you have a sell off and/or a down year or two with a reset tax budget.

 

 

Good post but a couple of questions. By Hernandez do you mean both the 2nd naseman and the relief pitcher? Trading one off of your trade 1 list looks tough. Who would take Pedroia? Doesn't JDM have limitations in his contract and who would pay $$ for a DH? Eovaldi maybe, but again $$ coming off a low value year. Can't see either Price or Sale drawing a lot of interest with their contracts. If tthe idea is to shed money, I find it hard to believe we could rid ourselves of any of those contracts.

 

Do you have a list with projected salaries for next year with arbitration?

[moonslav59]

Good post but a couple of questions. By Hernandez do you mean both the 2nd naseman and the relief pitcher? Trading one off of your trade 1 list looks tough. Who would take Pedroia? Doesn't JDM have limitations in his contract and who would pay $$ for a DH? Eovaldi maybe, but again $$ coming off a low value year. Can't see either Price or Sale drawing a lot of interest with their contracts. If tthe idea is to shed money, I find it hard to believe we could rid ourselves of any of those contracts.

 

Do you have a list with projected salaries for next year with arbitration?

 

I mentioned Hernandez and DHern, so both.

 

The trade one list was the list of players paid too much for most teams to take on. Pedey will not be traded. I mentioned the need to pay part of the salary, so we could get under the tax line for 2020. My guess is we may not have to pay a whole lot of the salary of JD, Sale Eovaldi or Price.

 

2020 Tax Salary Budget:

$Millions

31.0 Price

25.6 Sale

22.0 JD (assuming option)

20.0 Bogey

17.0 Eovaldi

13.8 Pedey

4.5 Vaz

Total:$134M (7 players)

 

Arbs: (est)

27 Betts (3rd of 3 arbs)

10 JBJ (4 of 4)

9 ERod (3 of 4)

4 Beni (1 of 3)

3 Workman (3 of 3)

3 Barnes (2 of 3)

2 Hembree (2 of 3)

1 Wright (3 of 3)

1 Hernandez (1 of 3)

Total $60M (9 players)

 

Non arbs (24 players on 40 man roster)

Total: $16M

 

40 man roster with no FA signings: $210M +$15M player benefits= $225M

 

Bye-bye:

Porcello, Cashner, Moreland & Pearce

Holt (maybe back) & Leon (unless back for near min)

 

To get under the $208M limit, we'd have to not only avoid signing any FAs, we'd have to trade about $17M in salary. That would likely be JBJ ($10M) and maybe Eovaldi (by paying about 1/3 his salary) or getting Pedey to retire and forgo his salary (fat chance).

 

[OH FOY]

So you think the Sox Protect Ockimey in the Rule 5 Draft? And take a chance on losing maybe another that they might need? They didn't last year.

[jacksonianmarch]

Ockimey has sucked this year. If he was Rule V eligible in 2018, then he’ll be a minor league FA this year. He very likely ends up in another system

[moonslav59]

So you think the Sox Protect Ockimey in the Rule 5 Draft? And take a chance on losing maybe another that they might need? They didn't last year.

 

I think we protect Ockimey, not because they think he is all that great, but because we will have plenty of open roster slots after we purge all the dead wood.

[moonslav59]

2020's 40 Man Roster (assuming no FA signings)

Pedey

Wright (non tender?)

Vaz

JBJ (last arb)

Workman (last arb)

Bogey

Betts (last arb)

Hembree (Trade?)

Barnes (Trade?)

ERod

Johnson (Trade?)

Marco

Price

Beni

Sale

Velazquez (Trade?)

Travis

Lin

Devers

JD

Poyner (Trade?)

Walden

Brasier (Trade?)

Eovaldi

Brewer (Trade?)

Chavis

Lakins (trade?)

Taylor

DHern

Reyes

Leon (Non tender?)

J Smith (Trade?)

Curletta (Trade?)

Weber (Trade?)

Shawaryn (Trade?)

Kelley (Trade?)

 

There are so many players on this list that can be non tendered, DFA'd or traded without us skipping a beat, that I seriously doubt we lose anyone we want to rule 5.

 

Here's the Rule 5 List for this winter:

 

Juan Carlos Abreu

Christopher Acosta

Fabian Andrade

Yoan Aybar

Roldani Baldwin

Eduard Bazardo

Gary Calvo

Marino Campana

Pedro Castellanos

Rusney Castillo

CJ Chatham

Jake Cosart

Ricardo Cubillan

Bobby Dalbec

Enmanuel De Jesus

Chad De La Guerra

Jhonathan Diaz

Jerry Downs

Devon Fisher

Matthew Gorst

Kyle Hart

Trenton Kemp

Matt Kent

Adam Lau

Fransico Lopez-Soto

Nick Lovullo

Everlouis Lozada

Tate Matheny

Samuel Miranda

Oddanier Mosqueda

Josh Ockimey

Angel Padron

Yorvin Pantoja

Keibert Petit

Roniel Raudes

Austin Rei

Hildemaro Requena

Jeremy Rivera

Kleiber Rodriguez

Jake Romanski

Jagger Rusconi

Alberto Schmidt

Andrew Schwaab

Nick Sciortino

Kevin Steen

Cole Sturgeon

Kervin Suarez

Luke Tendler

Josh Tobias

Kyri Washington

Marcus Wilson

[moonslav59]

Ockimey has sucked this year. If he was Rule V eligible in 2018, then he’ll be a minor league FA this year. He very likely ends up in another system

 

You may be right, but we have a need at 1B next year, and Chavis may be at 2B.

 

We may also be looking to reset our tax, so guys like Dalbec, Chatham, DHern & Ockimey might stick around.

[moonslav59]

I count only 17 players that are highly likely to be on our 40 man roster next year, due to need, untradeability and/or long term value.

 

12 Core Keepers:

Betts

Bogey

Devers

ERod

Beni

Chavis

MHernandez

DHernandez

Walden

J Taylor

Dalbec (rule 5)

Chatham (rule 5)

 

4 Unlikely to trade, unless we pay a big chunk:

JD

Price

Sale

Eovaldi

 

1 Not able to trade:

Pedey

 

That's only 17 players!

 

Could trade (due to limited team control and/or salary or low value)

JBJ

Workman

Barnes

Hembree

Johnson

Velazquez

Brasier

Brewer

Lin

Shawaryn

Travis

Lakins

Poyner

J Smith

Weber

Curletta

Kelley

[dannycater]

One thing I noticed about Chavis was how fast he can turn a DP. He can turn it over pretty quick for a more solid type body frame guy over some of the stringy middle infielders you see a lot.

[moonslav59]

One thing I noticed about Chavis was how fast he can turn a DP. He can turn it over pretty quick for a more solid type body frame guy over some of the stringy middle infielders you see a lot.

 

He's looked way better in the field than I expected. Granted, I did not expect much on defense, and he seems to have been a plus, so far.

 

He has been way better than Nunez at 2B. He seems to be about the same as Holt at 2B. He's probably not as good as Moreland at 1B, but he's been healthy and has made some great plays that I'm not sure Mitch makes.

 

[OH FOY]

 

haha

[notin]

 

haha

 

Pffffft

 

I think that’s about what John Wall makes for every game he misses with a gimpy knee...

[moonslav59]

 

haha

 

Doesn't count what Brady makes from the sweetheart TV monies.

[oldtimer]

Hypothetical question: Would you rather have the best player in baseball (Mike Trout) contracted for 6 years at $35.54 Mil per year and a scrub player at another position or two very good field players at $17 mil a year with 5 year contracts? No doubt Trout is great and plays good defense, hits 300 and will come in this year with 45 to 50 HRs and 120 rbi. The two hypothetical players should be very good at that money, would hit probably 285 and come in with 25 HRs each. Clearly the risk is lower with two good players and you have a longer capable lineup. They might well match the performance of Trout and a scrub.

 

We might well be facing a similar issue with Betts if he looks for over $30 mil. Our lineup at times got weak at the bottom of the order. Which is best?

[notin]

So I’m looking back at some old prospects lists. First one I looks st is the 2013 Fangraphs list, because I don’t have/want a Baseball America subscription.

 

Creepy list. Only 6 years old and three of the top eight prospects are dead!!

[moonslav59]

Hypothetical question: Would you rather have the best player in baseball (Mike Trout) contracted for 6 years at $35.54 Mil per year and a scrub player at another position or two very good field players at $17 mil a year with 5 year contracts? No doubt Trout is great and plays good defense, hits 300 and will come in this year with 45 to 50 HRs and 120 rbi. The two hypothetical players should be very good at that money, would hit probably 285 and come in with 25 HRs each. Clearly the risk is lower with two good players and you have a longer capable lineup. They might well match the performance of Trout and a scrub.

 

We might well be facing a similar issue with Betts if he looks for over $30 mil. Our lineup at times got weak at the bottom of the order. Which is best?

 

I'd pay Betts over $30M. He's worth it.

 

I wish we hadn't signed Eovaldi. It would have made keeping Betts much easier.

 

I know having just 6 or 7 players making a big chunk of the budget creates serious issues, but Betts is a keeper.

[notin]

I'd pay Betts over $30M. He's worth it.

 

I wish we hadn't signed Eovaldi. It would have made keeping Betts much easier.

 

I know having just 6 or 7 players making a big chunk of the budget creates serious issues, but Betts is a keeper.

 

Having Betts means having how much to spend on pitching?

[jacksonianmarch]

So I’m looking back at some old prospects lists. First one I looks st is the 2013 Fangraphs list, because I don’t have/want a Baseball America subscription.

 

Creepy list. Only 6 years old and three of the top eight prospects are dead!!

 

Which ones?