Blake Swihart

[Bellhorn04]

If we attach any value to Alex Cora's preferences (as evidenced in the 2018 postseason):

 

Vaz > Leon > Swihart

[mvp 78]

If we attach any value to Alex Cora's preferences (as evidenced in the 2018 postseason):

 

Vaz > Leon > Swihart

 

What does that pollyanna know?

[moonslav59]

We do not need two catchers who likely would be solid backups on many teams. Taking a chance with Swihart won't hurt a thing. Sandy Leon is a good defensive catcher but anyone thinking that Sandy is the biggest reason for the success of two big time big league pitchers I think is giving him more credit than he deserves.

 

Of course Leon is not the major reason Sale, Price, Porcello and others do well. They were all good to great before he caught them.

 

He's not the biggest reason. I don't think anybody thinks that, but if the differentials are for real, then to me, Leon is worth keeping over Swihart.

 

I think Leon got burnt out when Vaz got hurt, but his defense was always good/better. His bat might not be as bad as .550 again, and that is pretty awful, but if Swihart and Vaz both hit .600 to .650, then one can certainly argue Leon's defense can make up .050 to.100 on offense.

 

I get the argument to keep Swihart: he's cheaper; he has more years of team control; and his bat, despite little evidence to support it, likely has more upside potential.

 

Do all those who want Swihart over Leon think these numbers are a fluke, over inflated in value or not valid?

 

Sale career ERA with...

 

2.42 Leon (1250 PAs against)

2.51 AJP (896)

2.98 Navarro (388)

3.02 Flowers (2227)

3.36 Phegley (363)

3.40 Vazquez (218)

3.53 Avila (449)

 

Sale's ERA is more than 0.50 better with Leon than anyone else, except AJP. I think his ERA with Leon is more than 0.60 better than his career ERA without Leon as his catcher. Even if you figure luck had something to do with it, if we can get a half a run better every 9 innings from Sale, that makes up for a lot of bad offense.

 

Price's numbers are different, since he joined the Sox near the end of his prime, but Price still does better with Leon over Vaz and Swihart.

 

2.83 with Leon (769 PAs)

4.32 with Vaz (113)

5.73 with Swihart (48- super small sample size alert)

 

These numbers are shocking.

 

Are they useless?

 

[cp176]

Of course Leon is not the major reason Sale, Price, Porcello and others do well. They were all good to great before he caught them.

 

He's not the biggest reason. I don't think anybody thinks that, but if the differentials are for real, then to me, Leon is worth keeping over Swihart.

 

I think Leon got burnt out when Vaz got hurt, but his defense was always good/better. His bat might not be as bad as .550 again, and that is pretty awful, but if Swihart and Vaz both hit .600 to .650, then one can certainly argue Leon's defense can make up .050 to.100 on offense.

 

I get the argument to keep Swihart: he's cheaper; he has more years of team control; and his bat, despite little evidence to support it, likely has more upside potential.

 

Do all those who want Swihart over Leon think these numbers are a fluke, over inflated in value or not valid?

 

Sale career ERA with...

 

2.42 Leon (1250 PAs against)

2.51 AJP (896)

2.98 Navarro (388)

3.02 Flowers (2227)

3.36 Phegley (363)

3.40 Vazquez (218)

3.53 Avila (449)

 

Sale's ERA is more than 0.50 better with Leon than anyone else, except AJP. I think his ERA with Leon is more than 0.60 better than his career ERA without Leon as his catcher. Even if you figure luck had something to do with it, if we can get a half a run better every 9 innings from Sale, that makes up for a lot of bad offense.

 

Price's numbers are different, since he joined the Sox near the end of his prime, but Price still does better with Leon over Vaz and Swihart.

 

2.83 with Leon (769 PAs)

4.32 with Vaz (113)

5.73 with Swihart (48- super small sample size alert)

 

These numbers are shocking.

 

Are they useless?

 

 

I certainly don't think the numbers that you list are useless. I am not stunned by these numbers though. Guess we will just have to wait to see what happens. But I will say Moon that nothing you post is telling me that you think that Sale or Price would be as effective with any other catcher but Leon. My opinion is that I am not buying that line of reasoning.

[Nick]

I certainly don't think the numbers that you list are useless. I am not stunned by these numbers though. Guess we will just have to wait to see what happens. But I will say Moon that nothing you post is telling me that you think that Sale or Price would be as effective with any other catcher but Leon. My opinion is that I am not buying that line of reasoning.

 

 

This is what has ruined NBA. Players run the league.

 

Cora is our manager. He obviously thinks Vazquez can be our #1 catcher.

 

Maybe we need to trade both Sale and Price along with Sandy. Because he is the only one that can catch the two.

[cp176]

Yawn - We rank three backup catchers here. I think that you could put these guys in a shell game, flip over any one of them, and likely get similar results most days. Leon and Vazqueth can catch for sure and that is a good thing. Every team needs a catcher. Swihart - Who knows. If any one of those three is gone from the roster come April, the affect will likely hardly be noticeable.

[Tedballgame]

Trade Leon or Vazquez and keep Swihart. Offensive potential far and above the other two.

[harmony]

Trade Leon or Vazquez and keep Swihart. Offensive potential far and above the other two.

Steamer projects 2019 wRC+ of 79 for Christian Vazquez, 75 for Blake Swihart and 68 for Sandy Leon:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=22,d

 

ZiPS projects 2019 OPS and wOBA of .655 and .286 for Vazquez, .614 and .269 for Swihart and .604 and .269 for Leon:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=22,d

 

Marcel projects 2019 OPS of .648 for Vazquez, .681 for Swihart and .657 for Leon:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vazquch01.shtml

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/swihabl01.shtml

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leonsa01.shtml

[moonslav59]

I certainly don't think the numbers that you list are useless. I am not stunned by these numbers though. Guess we will just have to wait to see what happens. But I will say Moon that nothing you post is telling me that you think that Sale or Price would be as effective with any other catcher but Leon. My opinion is that I am not buying that line of reasoning.

 

I hinted at maybe a projected 0.50 differential. That's significant, but it doesn't make Sale or Price ineffective with Vaz. (That's way less than the past differentials.)

 

I do think there may be a learning curve with Swihart before these two might get to "effective".

 

I'm not preaching doomsday, although it might appear that way.

 

I guess I'm saying we'd be taking a big risk or a leap of faith in Vaz/Swihart by dumping Leon.

[moonslav59]

Steamer projects 2019 wRC+ of 79 for Christian Vazquez, 75 for Blake Swihart and 68 for Sandy Leon:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=22,d

 

ZiPS projects 2019 OPS and wOBA of .655 and .286 for Vazquez, .614 and .269 for Swihart and .604 and .269 for Leon:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=22,d

 

Marcel projects 2019 OPS of .648 for Vazquez, .681 for Swihart and .657 for Leon:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vazquch01.shtml

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/swihabl01.shtml

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leonsa01.shtml

 

wRC+ is way down on my list of what's important from a catcher.

[harmony]

wRC+ is way down on my list of what's important from a catcher.

I agree but I was responding to the contention that Blake Swihart has "Offensive potential far and above the other two."

Edited March 14, 2019 by harmony

[moonslav59]

I agree but I was responding to the contention that Blake Swihart's "Offensive potential far and above the other two."

 

Yes, I took it that way and agree that the hype about Swihart's offense being all that much better than the other two is not really supported by past data or by the projections you provide.

 

I do think Swihart probably has more "upside" on offense, but that is more about his lack of a large sample size and us knowing more about the hitting abilities of Vaz and Leon.

 

Personally, if Pedey, Nunez or Holt start the year on the DL, I'd be fine keeping all 3 catchers again.

 

[Nick]

By Christopher Smith, MassLive

 

It’s time for the Red Sox to trade Leon and commit to a Vazquez-Swihart combo.

 

Swihart has the most offensive upside of the three catchers. He also improved defensively in 2018. He always has had a strong throwing arm and he showed much better ability blocking balls in the dirt last year.

 

Sale prefers throwing to Leon. But Sale finished in the top six of the AL Cy Young voting five straight years with Chicago without Leon. He’ll be able to establish a relationship with Vazquez or Swihart.

 

 

Are we going to trade Swihart and keep Leon just to please Sale who may not be here in 2020? Swihart has the highest ceiling of the three.

[cp176]

Yes, I took it that way and agree that the hype about Swihart's offense being all that much better than the other two is not really supported by past data or by the projections you provide.

 

I do think Swihart probably has more "upside" on offense, but that is more about his lack of a large sample size and us knowing more about the hitting abilities of Vaz and Leon.

 

Personally, if Pedey, Nunez or Holt start the year on the DL, I'd be fine keeping all 3 catchers again.

 

 

No one truly knows what Swihart's upside might be with respect to either his offense or his defense. It is all conjecture based on a limited number of gasbag statistics. Once again, metrics can be very useful but in some respects not so much. With respect to our conversation, I respect yours always but I don't think that I am totally alone in my beliefs.

[Bellhorn04]

By Christopher Smith, MassLive

 

It’s time for the Red Sox to trade Leon and commit to a Vazquez-Swihart combo.

 

Swihart has the most offensive upside of the three catchers. He also improved defensively in 2018. He always has had a strong throwing arm and he showed much better ability blocking balls in the dirt last year.

 

Sale prefers throwing to Leon. But Sale finished in the top six of the AL Cy Young voting five straight years with Chicago without Leon. He’ll be able to establish a relationship with Vazquez or Swihart.

 

Are we going to trade Swihart and keep Leon just to please Sale who may not be here in 2020? Swihart has the highest ceiling of the three.

 

It's a dilemma. If it's about being all-in for 2019, damn right I'm 'pleasing' Sale, and Price.

[Bellhorn04]

No one truly knows what Swihart's upside might be with respect to either his offense or his defense. It is all conjecture based on a limited number of gasbag statistics. Once again, metrics can be very useful but in some respects not so much. With respect to our conversation, I respect yours always but I don't think that I am totally alone in my beliefs.

 

At the end of the day, it's up to Dombrowski and Cora to make the call. They know everything we know and much more.

[Nick]

It's a dilemma. If it's about being all-in for 2019, damn right I'm 'pleasing' Sale, and Price.

 

Nothing like letting your teammate know that he sucks.

[Bellhorn04]

Nothing like letting your teammate know that he sucks.

 

Not sure what you mean.

[Nick]

Not sure what you mean.

 

How does Vazquez react after being told constantly that both Price and Sale prefer Sandy? You don't think it creates little bit of friction?

 

I thought this team was all about unity?

[Slasher9]

How does Vazquez react after being told constantly that both Price and Sale prefer Sandy? You don't think it creates little bit of friction?

 

I thought this team was all about unity?

 

catchers know that pitchers are more comfortable with one person over another for whatever reason. personal catchers is not a new phenomenon. Vaz is fine. and even if he wasn't...who cares. we had a parade doing it this way last year.

[cp176]

At the end of the day, it's up to Dombrowski and Cora to make the call. They know everything we know and much more.

 

You think they really do know more Bell? I think that there are some here who truly think that their gained knowledge of all things statistical gives them a leg up on almost anyone. For the record, of course I agree with your statement. I'm sure that you understand how I feel about all of this though. A gained mastery of all things regarding metrics in baseball does not at all mean that people in that camp have a mastery of the game.

[cp176]

Have either Sale or Price openly stated that they prefer Leon to Vazquez or anyone else? They might for sure but I have not heard either state as much. I really don't think that if either had to pitch to cowboy slapshanks they would complain. They are two of the best in the game and likely would feel comfortable having any skilled professional behind the plate.

[Slasher9]

Hey CP. it's very rare for a discussion like that to be made public. really the only way to "verify" a pitcher has requested a personal catcher is to see who the manager always matches with said pitcher.

[moonslav59]

No one truly knows what Swihart's upside might be with respect to either his offense or his defense. It is all conjecture based on a limited number of gasbag statistics. Once again, metrics can be very useful but in some respects not so much. With respect to our conversation, I respect yours always but I don't think that I am totally alone in my beliefs.

 

His lack of steady playing time is the major part of him having higher upside and not really anything he has done over his major or minor league career, except for a brief time in AA way back in 2014.

 

I'm not sure where the "metrics" is coming from. How much better a few pitchers do with Leon has nothing to do with metrics, in fact, it has more to do with things that metrics don't capture... something I'm not usually associated with by some here.

 

I totally respect your opinion and others who disagree with me on this one. You're one of the best posters on this site. Keeping Swihart has several advantages, and I realize I may be putting too much weight on the catcher-pitcher dynamic.

 

Sale, Porcello & Price are not going to suck without Leon. I just hope the learning curve does not take too long or causes Vaz to burn out by having to catch too much.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Hey CP. it's very rare for a discussion like that to be made public. really the only way to "verify" a pitcher has requested a personal catcher is to see who the manager always matches with said pitcher.

 

You nailed it.

[moonslav59]

How does Vazquez react after being told constantly that both Price and Sale prefer Sandy? You don't think it creates little bit of friction?

 

I thought this team was all about unity?

 

This is something that has been going on in baseball and with the Sox for decades. I'm sure catchers understand it better than anyone esle, except for maybe the pitchers.

 

We won last year, despite all the discord or "friction" it caused.

 

Also, I'm not aware Price has said anything. In fact, Vaz caught Price more than Leon in his time here and in 2018.

 

2018

394 PAs with Vaz (not counting the playoffs) 2.37 ERA (5.87 OPS against)

328 with Leon 4.68 ERA (.780 OPS against)

 

Career

1113 with Vaz 4.32/.735

769 with Leon 2.83/.636

 

I don't think Cora minds who catches Price. I'm not sure Price does either.

 

I do, but with with Price, it's not as "slam dunk" as Sale.

 

[moonslav59]

Have either Sale or Price openly stated that they prefer Leon to Vazquez or anyone else? They might for sure but I have not heard either state as much. I really don't think that if either had to pitch to cowboy slapshanks they would complain. They are two of the best in the game and likely would feel comfortable having any skilled professional behind the plate.

 

I do think the fact that Swihart has not caught even one batter with Sale speaks volumes.

 

I'm not saying he can't gain comfort with Vaz or Swihart. I'm just saying I wouldn't mess with something that has worked fine.

 

Out of 372.1 IP with the Sox, Leon has caught 319.1 of them. That's 86%. One could argue Vaz's 53 IP (14%) is not a large enough sample size to know anything, and I can understand that. That is why I am not projecting the past numbers to continue. I don't think projecting something like a 0.50 differential next year is out of line or absurd. One could argue I was being generous to Vaz.

 

They didn't yank Vaz when Sale came in that WS game in relief.

 

(Note: I'm not using numbers to try and show or prove my position is right but to support it. There are other points, like Cora and past managers choosing to go with personal caddies with the best starters. It's a long tradition in MLB.

 

Also, there's a long tradition of changing caddies, when necessary.)

Edited March 14, 2019 by moonslav59

[cp176]

Hey CP. it's very rare for a discussion like that to be made public. really the only way to "verify" a pitcher has requested a personal catcher is to see who the manager always matches with said pitcher.

 

Could be why I don't like reading hinting comments from a forum board. It is what the media tends to do. Try to read things into something to create news where there isn't news.

[cp176]

His lack of steady playing time is the major part of him having higher upside and not really anything he has done over his major or minor league career, except for a brief time in AA way back in 2014.

 

I'm not sure where the "metrics" is coming from. How much better a few pitchers do with Leon has nothing to do with metrics, in fact, it has more to do with things that metrics don't capture... something I'm not usually associated with by some here.

 

I totally respect your opinion and others who disagree with me on this one. You're one of the best posters on this site. Keeping Swihart has several advantages, and I realize I may be putting too much weight on the catcher-pitcher dynamic.

 

Sale, Porcello & Price are not going to suck without Leon. I just hope the learning curve does not take too long or causes Vaz to burn out by having to catch too much.

 

 

The metrics comment came directly form me based on Harmony's post trying to support which catcher does what based upon what they have or have not done. I do not think that using that type of argument with respect to what Swihart might do if given a chance has any meaning whatsoever.

[moonslav59]

The metrics comment came directly form me based on Harmony's post trying to support which catcher does what based upon what they have or have not done. I do not think that using that type of argument with respect to what Swihart might do if given a chance has any meaning whatsoever.

 

For what it is worth, I don't value Steamer projections.