Cody Allen to Angels...

[moonslav59]

My preference would be to trade Leon (which would also free up $2.5 million), but the Red Sox seem to value him over Swihart at this point. They're saying all the same kind of things about Swihart that they were saying a year ago, but they didn't think he was good enough to give any appreciable playing time in 2018, and I don't know why they'd feel any differently now...

 

I'm thinking it might not be such a great idea to trade away a catcher who gets so much better from Sale and Price.

 

ERA with these catchers:

 

Sale

w Leon 2.42 (2.04 in 2018)

w Vaz 3.40 (2.27 in 2018)

 

Price

w Leon 2.83 (2.37 in '18)

w Vaz 4.32 (4.68 in '18)

w Swi 5.73

 

One can choose to value these numbers or not, but I'm one to think we shouldn't mess with a good thing. An ERA improvement of this magnitude far outweighs Leon's poor offense. Plus, it's not like Swihart is a guarantee to hit way better than Leon.

 

[notin]

Steamer600, which assumes 200 innings for each starting pitcher, projects about 312 starters with a higher 2019 WAR than Brian Johnson:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=19%2cd

 

Steamer600,, which assumes 450 plate appearances for each catcher, projects 239 catchers with a higher 2019 WAR than Blake Swihart:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=27%2cd

 

Trivia: In consecutive years Brian Johnson and Seattle lefthander Marco Gonzales won the John Olerud Award as college baseball's best two-way player. Each was a first-round selection as the Red Sox took Johnson with the 31st pick of the 2012 draft and the St. Louis Cardinals took Gonzales with the 19the pick of the 2013 draft. Each lefty has five years of team control although their careers have taken different trajectories. Gonzales made his MLB debut a year before Johnson did and picked up two MLB postseason wins in relief after only 16 months in professional ball.

 

Steamer also projects 1.1 fWAR for Christian Vazquez and 1.0 fWAR for Felipe Vazquez from Pitt. So there you go. Perfect trade...

[harmony]

Steamer also projects 1.1 fWAR for Christian Vazquez and 1.0 fWAR for Felipe Vazquez from Pitt. So there you go. Perfect trade...

And they share a last name, were born less than a year apart and each has a guaranteed contract that runs through 2021 with a team option for at least one more year.

 

Felipe's $19 million guarantee outshines Christian's $13.3 million guarantee.

 

Of course the Pirates would be disinclined to pursue Christian Vazquez as the current Sox would be blocked by Francisco Cervelli, who last year posted the third-highest fWAR of all catchers:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=100&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

... not to mention that the Pittsburgh bullpen would be significantly weakened.

[Bellhorn04]

And they share a last name, were born less than a year apart and each has a guaranteed contract that runs through 2021 with a team option for at least one more year.

 

Felipe's $19 million guarantee outshines Christian's $13.3 million guarantee.

 

Of course the Pirates would be disinclined to pursue Christian Vazquez as the current Sox would be blocked by Francisco Cervelli, who last year posted the third-highest fWAR of all catchers:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=100&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

... not to mention that the Pittsburgh bullpen would be significantly weakened.

 

But of course they may be able to trade Cervelli (reportedly Dombrowski inquired already) who is relatively expensive and in the final year of his deal.

[harmony]

But of course they may be able to trade Cervelli (reportedly Dombrowski inquired already) who is relatively expensive and in the final year of his deal.

Because of luxury tax implications the Pirates may have fewer problems than the Red Sox with Francisco Cervelli's 2019 salary of $11.5 million.

[Bellhorn04]

Because of luxury tax implications the Pirates may have fewer problems than the Red Sox with Francisco Cervelli's 2019 salary of $11.5 million.

 

But it's unlikely they'll be keeping him beyond 2019. If they don't trade him this offseason they'll likely trade him at the deadline, assuming they're not in contention.

[harmony]

But it's unlikely they'll be keeping him beyond 2019. If they don't trade him this offseason they'll likely trade him at the deadline, assuming they're not in contention.

The same can be said of Xander Bogaerts, Rick Porcello and perhaps other Red Sox.

[moonslav59]

Because of luxury tax implications the Pirates may have fewer problems than the Red Sox with Francisco Cervelli's 2019 salary of $11.5 million.

 

$11.5M is a lot to the Pirates.

 

My guess is he gets traded, hopefully not to us.

[Larry Cook]

I'm thinking it might not be such a great idea to trade away a catcher who gets so much better from Sale and Price.

 

ERA with these catchers:

 

Sale

w Leon 2.42 (2.04 in 2018)

w Vaz 3.40 (2.27 in 2018)

 

Price

w Leon 2.83 (2.37 in '18)

w Vaz 4.32 (4.68 in '18)

w Swi 5.73

 

One can choose to value these numbers or not, but I'm one to think we shouldn't mess with a good thing. An ERA improvement of this magnitude far outweighs Leon's poor offense. Plus, it's not like Swihart is a guarantee to hit way better than Leon.

 

 

A happy pitcher is a good pitcher. You don’t mess with a good thing!

[moonslav59]

A happy pitcher is a good pitcher. You don’t mess with a good thing!

 

My sentiments, exactly.

[Nick]

My sentiments, exactly.

 

Sorry but I'll put my faith in Cora's decision to go with Vaz during the playoffs as opposed to what the fans think.

[Kimmi]

I am, too. I know Allen's 2018 was bad, but he was very consistent for the few years before that and is still younger than the Miller/Robertson/Britton/Ottavino/Soria crowd who are all getting 2-3 year deals. Seems like a gamble worth taking to me.

 

At this point, I have to imagine either A) Dave feels confident he can work something out with Kimbrel at a reduced price, though this would go against all of his public statements on that subject; or we really are close to maxed out in payroll for next year. I've already given my thoughts on that, but until I see the finished product, I'm content to withhold judgment...

 

Dombrowski is definitely working under financial constraints, more so in terms of years than in terms of money for this year, IMO. I am pretty sure that we are not looking at the finished product. Dombrowski will add some BP help.

[Kimmi]

I'm thinking it might not be such a great idea to trade away a catcher who gets so much better from Sale and Price.

 

ERA with these catchers:

 

Sale

w Leon 2.42 (2.04 in 2018)

w Vaz 3.40 (2.27 in 2018)

 

Price

w Leon 2.83 (2.37 in '18)

w Vaz 4.32 (4.68 in '18)

w Swi 5.73

 

One can choose to value these numbers or not, but I'm one to think we shouldn't mess with a good thing. An ERA improvement of this magnitude far outweighs Leon's poor offense. Plus, it's not like Swihart is a guarantee to hit way better than Leon.

 

 

100% agree.

 

I have always felt that any offense that we get from the catcher position is gravy. Give me a catcher that the pitchers like to pitch to, and I'm happy. If we are trading any of our catchers, I hope it's Swihart.

[Kimmi]

Sorry but I'll put my faith in Cora's decision to go with Vaz during the playoffs as opposed to what the fans think.

 

Well, Vaz falls in the same category as Leon. They are both good receivers that make our pitchers happy.

 

We should keep the Vaz/Leon tandem.

[Bellhorn04]

The same can be said of Xander Bogaerts, Rick Porcello and perhaps other Red Sox.

 

Which has nothing to do with your comments about Pittsburgh having no interest in Vazquez because he'd be blocked by Cervelli.

 

No one is suggesting Vazquez is better than Cervelli, but he has a low price and years of control in his favor.

[notin]

Which has nothing to do with your comments about Pittsburgh having no interest in Vazquez because he'd be blocked by Cervelli.

 

No one is suggesting Vazquez is better than Cervelli, but he has a low price and years of control in his favor.

 

 

Harmony’s goal is to tell you every player on the Red Sox is inferior and every prospect is inferior and no team wants anything to do with any of them, unlike the World Class Seattle Mariners, an organization for all others to be modeled after and who can do no baseball wrong in every aspect of the game except making the postseason....

[Bellhorn04]

Harmony’s goal is to tell you every player on the Red Sox is inferior and every prospect is inferior and no team wants anything to do with any of them, unlike the World Class Seattle Mariners, an organization for all others to be modeled after and who can do no baseball wrong in every aspect of the game except making the postseason....

 

Harmony is not nearly as objective as he makes himself out to be.

[notin]

Harmony is not nearly as objective as he makes himself out to be.

 

 

No. The biggest difference between him and Jacko is frequency...

[Bellhorn04]

No. The biggest difference between him and Jacko is frequency...

 

And maybe subtlety. Jacko has none.

[notin]

And maybe subtlety. Jacko has none.

 

 

Fair. Harmony doesn’t strike me as one who will tell you how doomed the Sox are while they’re winning the World Series.

[S5Dewey]

Harmony’s goal is to tell you every player on the Red Sox is inferior and every prospect is inferior and no team wants anything to do with any of them, unlike the World Class Seattle Mariners, an organization for all others to be modeled after and who can do no baseball wrong in every aspect of the game except making the postseason....

 

Harmony is not nearly as objective as he makes himself out to be.

 

No. The biggest difference between him and Jacko is frequency...

 

And maybe subtlety. Jacko has none.

 

Fair. Harmony doesn’t strike me as one who will tell you how doomed the Sox are while they’re winning the World Series.

 

Bingo!!

[harmony]

LOL

 

If a poster offers a player value that strikes me as a bit off I will provide numbers I find relevant to the valuation. The reader can choose to incorporate or ignore those numbers.

 

Sometimes the numbers enhance the valuation of a Red Sox player and sometimes the numbers detract from the valuation. Because of the pro-team bias on the forums of most clubs, the numbers detract more frequently than they enhance. That's the nature of the beast.

 

Instead of addressing the valuation issue at hand, some posters change the subject by responding that I'm a fan of a team with the longest postseason drought in North American professional sports. That's certainly true but adds little to the discussion at hand. The Red Sox have won four World Series in the 17 years since the Seattle Mariners made their last postseason appearance.

 

I'm OK with that.

 

Over the years I have gained knowledge by visiting baseball forums across the spectrum. I hope to continue my participation.

 

Best regards.

 

PS: A poster at a Seattle forum started a thread about Blake Swihart when MLB Trade Rumors reported his potential availability:

http://forums.seattletimes.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=247843

[moonslav59]

Harmony is not nearly as objective as he makes himself out to be.

 

He's a slave to WAR and Steamer. He's pretty consistent in that sense, but he often cherry picks sample size of past WAR vs projected WAR based on what supports his argument better (not like we all don't do that from time to time).

 

[Kimmi]

LOL

 

If a poster offers a player value that strikes me as a bit off I will provide numbers I find relevant to the valuation. The reader can choose to incorporate or ignore those numbers.

 

Sometimes the numbers enhance the valuation of a Red Sox player and sometimes the numbers detract from the valuation. Because of the pro-team bias on the forums of most clubs, the numbers detract more frequently than they enhance. That's the nature of the beast.

 

Instead of addressing the valuation issue at hand, some posters change the subject by responding that I'm a fan of a team with the longest postseason drought in North American professional sports. That's certainly true but adds little to the discussion at hand. The Red Sox have won four World Series in the 17 years since the Seattle Mariners made their last postseason appearance.

 

I'm OK with that.

 

Over the years I have gained knowledge by visiting baseball forums across the spectrum. I hope to continue my participation.

 

Best regards.

 

PS: A poster at a Seattle forum started a thread about Blake Swihart when MLB Trade Rumors reported his potential availability:

http://forums.seattletimes.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=247843

 

FTR Harmony, I have no issues with your posts. I think you are more objective than some here are giving you credit for, but regardless of that, it's human nature for us to be biased towards our own teams.

[Bellhorn04]

FTR Harmony, I have no issues with your posts. I think you are more objective than some here are giving you credit for, but regardless of that, it's human nature for us to be biased towards our own teams.

 

Take a look at the sequence of posts with Harmony about a possible trade of Vazquez to the Pirates for a reliever, which was raised by notin and continued by me.

 

Harmony basically scoffs at the idea because of Vazquez being blocked by Cervelli. I tried to point out that the Pirates might be motivated to trade Cervelli because of his cost. Harmony responds that the Pirates don't have the same problems with luxury tax that the Red Sox do. I suggested that if the Pirates don't trade Cervelli this offseason they'll probably trade him at the deadline, because he's in the last year of his contract. Harmony responds that the Red Sox might also trade Bogaerts and Porcello at the deadline for the same reason.

 

It seems that when you disagree with him, Harmony has a habit of taking shots at the Red Sox rather than engaging you on your points. It's a bit childish, in my opinion.

[harmony]

Take a look at the sequence of posts with Harmony about a possible trade of Vazquez to the Pirates for a reliever, which was raised by notin and continued by me.

 

Harmony basically scoffs at the idea because of Vazquez being blocked by Cervelli. I tried to point out that the Pirates might be motivated to trade Cervelli because of his cost. Harmony responds that the Pirates don't have the same problems with luxury tax that the Red Sox do. I suggested that if the Pirates don't trade Cervelli this offseason they'll probably trade him at the deadline, because he's in the last year of his contract. Harmony responds that the Red Sox might also trade Bogaerts and Porcello at the deadline for the same reason.

 

It seems that when you disagree with him, Harmony has a habit of taking shots at the Red Sox rather than engaging you on your points. It's a bit childish, in my opinion.

In the same exchange I provided contract numbers that would enhance the trade value of Christian Vazquez versus the trade value of Felipe Vazquez:

Felipe's $19 million guarantee outshines Christian's $13.3 million guarantee.

Objectivity is a heavy cross to bear.

[notin]

In the same exchange I provided contract numbers that would enhance the trade value of Christian Vazquez versus the trade value of Felipe Vazquez:

 

Objectivity is a heavy cross to bear.

 

 

Don’t confuse objectivity with contradictory.

 

I don’t expect the Pirates to trade Vazquez for our Vazquez for numerous reasons, all of which have nothing to do with fWAR and Steamer600. The entire proposal was geared at exposing that as the sole criteria for why Pitt would be disinterested, hence the sarcastic “Perfect trade” closing.

 

But to drum up bizarre reasons like it’s one’s sworn duty was where it got comical. I do think Pitt would love C Vazquez and like to move Cervelli for 2 big reasons Steamer ignored.

 

1. At $10.5mill, Cervelli is the highest paid position player on the Pirates.

2. His catching ability is potentially limited due to his frequent concussions.

 

I think they’d love Christian Vazquez. But they are unlikely to deal Felipe for him...

[Bellhorn04]

Don’t confuse objectivity with contradictory.

 

I don’t expect the Pirates to trade Vazquez for our Vazquez for numerous reasons, all of which have nothing to do with fWAR and Steamer600. The entire proposal was geared at exposing that as the sole criteria for why Pitt would be disinterested, hence the sarcastic “Perfect trade” closing.

 

But to drum up bizarre reasons like it’s one’s sworn duty was where it got comical. I do think Pitt would love C Vazquez and like to move Cervelli for 2 big reasons Steamer ignored.

 

1. At $10.5mill, Cervelli is the highest paid position player on the Pirates.

2. His catching ability is potentially limited due to his frequent concussions.

 

I think they’d love Christian Vazquez. But they are unlikely to deal Felipe for him...

 

Cervelli's 2019 salary is actually $11.5 million. And of course there have been rumors of the Pirates trying to trade him. And I do think his relatively high salary and the fact that he's in his final year MIGHT have something to do with it. I think it's a reasonable hypothesis at the least.

[moonslav59]

$11.5 is a lot of money for the Pirates, and it has nothing to do with luxury taxes.

 

They will likely trade him, even if they are in a race for the playoffs.

 

I just hope it's not to us.

[Bellhorn04]

It's getting a little late in the game for the Pirates to trade him this offseason, of course.