Cody Allen to Angels...

[notin]

... pending a physical.

 

One year $9mill is the early rumor.

 

At this point, I’m starting to wonder if DD has lot his cell phone or didn’t pay the bill...

[moonslav59]

... pending a physical.

 

One year $9mill is the early rumor.

 

At this point, I’m starting to wonder if DD has lot his cell phone or didn’t pay the bill...

 

We must have a spending limit.

[notin]

We must have a spending limit.

 

 

If the Sox do, then why did they give $11mill to Pearce, Thornburg, Leon and Swihart?

 

It is possible (likely) DD knows a little more about Thornburg’s health than me, but then his recent signing an subsequent announcement about Carson Smith isn’t filling me with confidence there.

 

But the other three? Those are bench players who shouldn’t have been prioritized over bullpen arms...

[moonslav59]

If the Sox do, then why did they give $11mill to Pearce, Thornburg, Leon and Swihart?

 

It is possible (likely) DD knows a little more about Thornburg’s health than me, but then his recent signing an subsequent announcement about Carson Smith isn’t filling me with confidence there.

 

But the other three? Those are bench players who shouldn’t have been prioritized over bullpen arms...

 

Maybe he just doesn't like Allen.

 

Maybe he has his eyes on a better pitcher (via trade).

[notin]

Maybe he just doesn't like Allen.

 

Maybe he has his eyes on a better pitcher (via trade).

 

 

I suspected he knew what he was doing, but I am absolutely having my doubts.

 

Whether he has something else lined up or not, he clearly prioritized the bench over the bullpen this off-season...

[moonslav59]

I suspected he knew what he was doing, but I am absolutely having my doubts.

 

Whether he has something else lined up or not, he clearly prioritized the bench over the bullpen this off-season...

 

So far, yes. He may be willing to wait until he sees how things shake out and make a mid season deal or two if needed. He's found some real gems this way recently.

[Kimmi]

... pending a physical.

 

One year $9mill is the early rumor.

 

At this point, I’m starting to wonder if DD has lot his cell phone or didn’t pay the bill...

 

For a one year deal, I'm surprised Dombrowski didn't bite.

[jacksonianmarch]

So far, yes. He may be willing to wait until he sees how things shake out and make a mid season deal or two if needed. He's found some real gems this way recently.

 

How many times can you find a diamond in the rough before just finding rough?

[moonslav59]

How many times can you find a diamond in the rough before just finding rough?

 

I thought Thornburg & Smith were roughs in the diamonds

[Larry Cook]

Hasn’t Allen’s Velocity been decreasing?

 

Not sure we should be sad he got away.

[Jack Flap]

If the Sox do, then why did they give $11mill to Pearce, Thornburg, Leon and Swihart?

 

It is possible (likely) DD knows a little more about Thornburg’s health than me, but then his recent signing an subsequent announcement about Carson Smith isn’t filling me with confidence there.

 

But the other three? Those are bench players who shouldn’t have been prioritized over bullpen arms...

 

Swihart is only making $910K, Thornburg's salary isn't guaranteed until he makes the team (which presumably he will need to earn), and we still have to trade a catcher.

[Jack Flap]

For a one year deal, I'm surprised Dombrowski didn't bite.

 

I am, too. I know Allen's 2018 was bad, but he was very consistent for the few years before that and is still younger than the Miller/Robertson/Britton/Ottavino/Soria crowd who are all getting 2-3 year deals. Seems like a gamble worth taking to me.

 

At this point, I have to imagine either A) Dave feels confident he can work something out with Kimbrel at a reduced price, though this would go against all of his public statements on that subject; or we really are close to maxed out in payroll for next year. I've already given my thoughts on that, but until I see the finished product, I'm content to withhold judgment...

[notin]

Swihart is only making $910K, Thornburg's salary isn't guaranteed until he makes the team (which presumably he will need to earn), and we still have to trade a catcher.

 

 

Even if the Sox cut Thornburg and trade/cut/put to sleep Swihart, those are the two lowest paid players I mentioned, combining for about $2.6mill. That still leaves almost $8.5mill spent on twp bench players while the bullpen went ignored.

 

Coincidentally, $8.5mill is the amount Cody Allen signed a deal for.

 

Now maybe DD isn't a fan or Mr. Allen. To be honest, I'm not his biggest fan either. But he was starting to look like a worthwhile gamble.

 

Right now, after Kimbrel, the top reliever on the board might be Justin Wilson. Wilson has some closing experience, and has played on Dombrowski teams before. And has never made more than $4.25mill.

 

He is checking way too many boxes, albeit some in pencil, to be ignored...

[harmony]

Even if the Sox cut Thornburg and trade/cut/put to sleep Swihart, those are the two lowest paid players I mentioned, combining for about $2.6mill. That still leaves almost $8.5mill spent on twp bench players while the bullpen went ignored.

 

Coincidentally, $8.5mill is the amount Cody Allen signed a deal for.

 

Now maybe DD isn't a fan or Mr. Allen. To be honest, I'm not his biggest fan either. But he was starting to look like a worthwhile gamble.

 

Right now, after Kimbrel, the top reliever on the board might be Justin Wilson. Wilson has some closing experience, and has played on Dombrowski teams before. And has never made more than $4.25mill.

 

He is checking way too many boxes, albeit some in pencil, to be ignored...

Another site's inventory of free agent relievers:

 

https://metsmerizedonline.com/2019/01/taking-inventory-of-free-agent-relievers.html/

[notin]

Another site's inventory of free agent relievers:

 

https://metsmerizedonline.com/2019/01/taking-inventory-of-free-agent-relievers.html/

 

 

The folks at MetsMesmerized and I agreed on several names from my list posted someplace in this site. They like Holland and dislike Vincent much more than I do.

 

And while I like Cedeno, I do hope the Sox avoid Sipp...

[moonslav59]

Hasn’t Allen’s Velocity been decreasing?

 

It's gone down as much as Kimbrel's.

[moonslav59]

Even if the Sox cut Thornburg and trade/cut/put to sleep Swihart, those are the two lowest paid players I mentioned, combining for about $2.6mill. That still leaves almost $8.5mill spent on twp bench players while the bullpen went ignored.

 

Coincidentally, $8.5mill is the amount Cody Allen signed a deal for.

 

Now maybe DD isn't a fan or Mr. Allen. To be honest, I'm not his biggest fan either. But he was starting to look like a worthwhile gamble.

 

Right now, after Kimbrel, the top reliever on the board might be Justin Wilson. Wilson has some closing experience, and has played on Dombrowski teams before. And has never made more than $4.25mill.

 

He is checking way too many boxes, albeit some in pencil, to be ignored...

 

The one year deal seemed to really fit into the reset plans.

 

I'm guessing he has someone he likes better lined up.

[notin]

The one year deal seemed to really fit into the reset plans.

 

I'm guessing he has someone he likes better lined up.

 

 

Best bets are Greg Holland or Justin Wilson. Kimbrel os possible if you believe he’s talking him down to keep the price down...

[moonslav59]

Best bets are Greg Holland or Justin Wilson. Kimbrel os possible if you believe he’s talking him down to keep the price down...

 

I think the clues point towards a budget limit. To me, that means we will get a RP'er via trade.

 

Maybe we trade Chavis and Swihart, but I wouldn't be surprised if we trade Johnson as part of a package for a very good, cost effective RP'er. A Johnson -Swihart package would really clear up our small out-of-options issue. It would clear the way for Pedey/Lin and Velazquez/Poyner, who might be better than Johnson and Swihart to make the opening day 25 man roster.

[dgalehouse]

I think the clues point towards a budget limit. To me, that means we will get a RP'er via trade.

 

Maybe we trade Chavis and Swihart, but I wouldn't be surprised if we trade Johnson as part of a package for a very good, cost effective RP'er. A Johnson -Swihart package would really clear up our small out-of-options issue. It would clear the way for Pedey/Lin and Velazquez/Poyner, who might be better than Johnson and Swihart to make the opening day 25 man roster.

From what Dombrowski has been saying , Swihart will be given a full opportunity come spring training . It looks like if a catcher is traded , it will be Vazquez or Leon .

[moonslav59]

From what Dombrowski has been saying , Swihart will be given a full opportunity come spring training . It looks like if a catcher is traded , it will be Vazquez or Leon .

 

Any GM looking to trade someone like Swihart would say the exact same thing.

 

I'm okay with not trading Swihart, but I doubt we trade Vaz or Leon.

[notin]

I think the clues point towards a budget limit. To me, that means we will get a RP'er via trade.

 

Maybe we trade Chavis and Swihart, but I wouldn't be surprised if we trade Johnson as part of a package for a very good, cost effective RP'er. A Johnson -Swihart package would really clear up our small out-of-options issue. It would clear the way for Pedey/Lin and Velazquez/Poyner, who might be better than Johnson and Swihart to make the opening day 25 man roster.

 

 

I would get why waiting might help free agent costs, but why wait so long if it’s a trade? There’s no team out there waiting out the market for some combo of Vazquez/Swihart/Chavis/Johnson/Leon. These are all players DD has tried to move before with little to no success...

[notin]

From what Dombrowski has been saying , Swihart will be given a full opportunity come spring training . It looks like if a catcher is traded , it will be Vazquez or Leon .

 

 

If we’re suddenly taking DD at his word, we’re not getting a bullpen arm and Pedroia didn’t have surgery last year...

[moonslav59]

I would get why waiting might help free agent costs, but why wait so long if it’s a trade? There’s no team out there waiting out the market for some combo of Vazquez/Swihart/Chavis/Johnson/Leon. These are all players DD has tried to move before with little to no success...

 

Maybe he's waiting out a couple free agents, in hopes the prices bottom out, before making a trade that eats into our depth.

[harmony]

I think the clues point towards a budget limit. To me, that means we will get a RP'er via trade.

 

Maybe we trade Chavis and Swihart, but I wouldn't be surprised if we trade Johnson as part of a package for a very good, cost effective RP'er. A Johnson -Swihart package would really clear up our small out-of-options issue. It would clear the way for Pedey/Lin and Velazquez/Poyner, who might be better than Johnson and Swihart to make the opening day 25 man roster.

Steamer600, which assumes 200 innings from each starting pitcher, projects 28-year-old lefthander Brian Johnson with a 2019 WAR of 0.7 and an ERA of 5.10:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=19,d

 

Steamer600, which assumes 450 plate appearances for each catcher, projects nearly 27-year-old Blake Swihart with a 2019 WAR of 0.2 and an OPS of .652:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0

 

I question whether two barely replacement-level players, who are out of options, will bring back "a very good, cost effective" reliever.

[Larry Cook]

It's gone down as much as Kimbrel's.

 

Well that explains why desperate Dave has not been sprinting to the table to sign the kimbrel contract.

[moonslav59]

Well that explains why desperate Dave has not been sprinting to the table to sign the kimbrel contract.

 

They both went down very slightly.

[moonslav59]

Steamer600, which assumes 200 innings from each starting pitcher, projects 28-year-old lefthander Brian Johnson with a 2019 WAR of 0.7 and an ERA of 5.10:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=19,d

 

Steamer600, which assumes 450 plate appearances for each catcher, projects nearly 27-year-old Blake Swihart with a 2019 WAR of 0.2 and an OPS of .652:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0

 

I question whether two barely replacement-level players, who are out of options, will bring back "a very good, cost effective" reliever.

 

Look what an 0.7 RP'er (Kelly) just got signed for.

 

My guess is many teams prefer a decent to good starter to a good to very good RP'er.

 

Swihart is just a prayer throw-in that I think some teams would like, especially looking at the state of the catcher position recently. Plus 0.2 is not bad these days, and Swihart might still have some upside.

 

We could also add Chavis or Dalbec.

[Jack Flap]

Any GM looking to trade someone like Swihart would say the exact same thing.

 

I'm okay with not trading Swihart, but I doubt we trade Vaz or Leon.

 

My preference would be to trade Leon (which would also free up $2.5 million), but the Red Sox seem to value him over Swihart at this point. They're saying all the same kind of things about Swihart that they were saying a year ago, but they didn't think he was good enough to give any appreciable playing time in 2018, and I don't know why they'd feel any differently now...

[harmony]

Look what an 0.7 RP'er (Kelly) just got signed for.

 

My guess is many teams prefer a decent to good starter to a good to very good RP'er.

 

Swihart is just a prayer throw-in that I think some teams would like, especially looking at the state of the catcher position recently. Plus 0.2 is not bad these days, and Swihart might still have some upside.

 

We could also add Chavis or Dalbec.

Steamer600, which assumes 200 innings for each starting pitcher, projects about 312 starters with a higher 2019 WAR than Brian Johnson:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=19%2cd

 

Steamer600,, which assumes 450 plate appearances for each catcher, projects 239 catchers with a higher 2019 WAR than Blake Swihart:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=27%2cd

 

Trivia: In consecutive years Brian Johnson and Seattle lefthander Marco Gonzales won the John Olerud Award as college baseball's best two-way player. Each was a first-round selection as the Red Sox took Johnson with the 31st pick of the 2012 draft and the St. Louis Cardinals took Gonzales with the 19the pick of the 2013 draft. Each lefty has five years of team control although their careers have taken different trajectories. Gonzales made his MLB debut a year before Johnson did and picked up two MLB postseason wins in relief after only 16 months in professional ball.

Edited January 19, 2019 by harmony