2019 Prospects

[Kimmi]

MLB.com's top 100 by team and rankings....

 

1- BOS: 79

 

 

Woot! We broke the top 100.

 

We are moving up in the world!

[Kimmi]

MLB.com Top 100 by Team

 

9 SD

7 CWS

5 TOR

5 HOU

4 TB (all top 40)

4 ATL (all top 40)

4 CIN

4 LAD

 

3 of these 8 teams won their division last year.

 

 

 

So, it's possible to build a contender and still have a strong farm system. Interesting.

[Bellhorn04]

So, it's possible to build a contender and still have a strong farm system. Interesting.

 

Let's not forget that Houston's blueprint for success was a total tank job.

[Bellhorn04]

And the Braves won their division in 2018, yes, but that followed seasons of 67-95, 68-94 and 72-90. A wee bit of a tank job there, too.

[notin]

And the Braves won their division in 2018, yes, but that followed seasons of 67-95, 68-94 and 72-90. A wee bit of a tank job there, too.

 

 

But they also lost a bunch of prospects in some illegal signing scandal, so imagine where their farm could be...

[moonslav59]

What's the excuse for the high-spending Dodgers being tied for 5th with the most top 100 prospects?

 

I know none are above #35, but they went to the WS AND have a strong farm and several recent grads.

[Bellhorn04]

What's the excuse for the high-spending Dodgers being tied for 5th with the most top 100 prospects?

 

I know none are above #35, but they went to the WS AND have a strong farm and several recent grads.

 

Wow, one exception. There usually is at least one exception to the norm.

[Bellhorn04]

Sure, let's moan and groan about not being the Dodgers or the Braves. Even though their last championships were 1988 and 1995, respectively.

[cp176]

Wow, one exception. There usually is at least one exception to the norm.

 

There is simply put not one single blueprint that leads to success. It is extremely narrow minded to think that there is. We have a great organization in Boston. I'll support any direction they happen to go in. I'm not quite ready to change the word on my fan card from Boston to Tampa just yet.

[moonslav59]

Wow, one exception. There usually is at least one exception to the norm.

 

Hey, we had 3 last place finishes in 4 years. One could call that a "tank", although it wasn't.

 

Yes, there are exceptions, but the fact remains, 3 of the top 8 farms saw their ML club win the division. One won the WS 2 years ago and another made it to the WS last year.

[Bellhorn04]

Hey, we had 3 last place finishes in 4 years. One could call that a "tank", although it wasn't.

 

Yes, there are exceptions, but the fact remains, 3 of the top 8 farms saw their ML club win the division. One won the WS 2 years ago and another made it to the WS last year.

 

Are you saying you would rather have the Dodgers or Braves record and farm system over ours? Would you give up the 2013 and 2018 rings in exchange?

 

Because it sounds like that's what you're saying.

[sk7326]

So, it's possible to build a contender and still have a strong farm system. Interesting.

 

You look at MLB's team rankings (which weights prospect quality)

 

The ten playoff teams rank:

 

Cubs (29), Red Sox (28), Yankees (24), Brewers (23), Guardians (19), Rockies (18), Dodgers (11), A's (9), Astros (5), Braves (2)

 

So 6 teams in the bottom half of prospect rankings, 4 in the top half. So the correlation of this year's prospect rankings aren't that useful.

[Kimmi]

Let's not forget that Houston's blueprint for success was a total tank job.

 

Some teams have tanked in order to build their strong farm system.

 

We did not have to do that in order to build our strong farm system. We had a strong farm in place, along with a strong core of MLB ready players. It was not necessary to destroy the farm in order to build a championship team.

[Kimmi]

You look at MLB's team rankings (which weights prospect quality)

 

The ten playoff teams rank:

 

Cubs (29), Red Sox (28), Yankees (24), Brewers (23), Guardians (19), Rockies (18), Dodgers (11), A's (9), Astros (5), Braves (2)

 

So 6 teams in the bottom half of prospect rankings, 4 in the top half. So the correlation of this year's prospect rankings aren't that useful.

 

All I'm saying is that it's possible to do, especially when spending money like the Red Sox have done.

[moonslav59]

Some teams have tanked in order to build their strong farm system.

 

We did not have to do that in order to build our strong farm system. We had a strong farm in place, along with a strong core of MLB ready players. It was not necessary to destroy the farm in order to build a championship team.

 

We did not "tank" to build our farm to where it was before DD got a hold of it, but we were helped by getting higher draft picks during our 3 last place seasons and a system that rewarded richer teams, at times, with comp picks and loose restrictions on international splurging.

 

We got Michael Kopech as a comp pick for losing Ellsbury, which was an addition by subtraction to begin with.''

 

We got Beni with the 8th pick in 2015 due to doing so poorly in 2014.

 

We got Groome, Dalbec, Shawaryn and Chatham in 2016 thanks to higher picks due to 2015's poor showing.

 

Moncada, Devers, Espinoza, Margot and several others were snatched from the international market during the years leading up to our high farm ranking under Ben.

 

 

[sk7326]

All I'm saying is that it's possible to do, especially when spending money like the Red Sox have done.

 

I tend to think it is more cyclical - based on where a team is in that cycle. That and economic realities - the teams that can afford to add salary will do so.

[Kimmi]

We did not "tank" to build our farm to where it was before DD got a hold of it, but we were helped by getting higher draft picks during our 3 last place seasons and a system that rewarded richer teams, at times, with comp picks and loose restrictions on international splurging.

 

We got Michael Kopech as a comp pick for losing Ellsbury, which was an addition by subtraction to begin with.''

 

We got Beni with the 8th pick in 2015 due to doing so poorly in 2014.

 

We got Groome, Dalbec, Shawaryn and Chatham in 2016 thanks to higher picks due to 2015's poor showing.

 

Moncada, Devers, Espinoza, Margot and several others were snatched from the international market during the years leading up to our high farm ranking under Ben.

 

 

I do not argue the point that Dombrowski job of rebuilding the farm will be more difficult than Ben's job was due to the circumstances.

 

That really wasn't my point though.

[Kimmi]

I tend to think it is more cyclical - based on where a team is in that cycle. That and economic realities - the teams that can afford to add salary will do so.

 

It may be cyclic to a certain extent, but I don't believe that it's cyclic to the point where a team should go from a top 3 farm system to a bottom 3 farm system in less than 3 years. I can see going from a top 3 to maybe middle of the pack, due the cyclic nature of the circumstances.

[Bellhorn04]

It may be cyclic to a certain extent, but I don't believe that it's cyclic to the point where a team should go from a top 3 farm system to a bottom 3 farm system in less than 3 years. I can see going from a top 3 to maybe middle of the pack, due the cyclic nature of the circumstances.

 

I think something pretty similar has happened to Theo's Cubs, maybe over a slightly longer period.

[Bellhorn04]

The Yankees have also had quite a reversal in position.

[sk7326]

It may be cyclic to a certain extent, but I don't believe that it's cyclic to the point where a team should go from a top 3 farm system to a bottom 3 farm system in less than 3 years. I can see going from a top 3 to maybe middle of the pack, due the cyclic nature of the circumstances.

 

The Cubs did - and it makes sense, since you are sending guys who were blocked to help the major league team. I mean Michael Kopech did not throw a pitch for the Red Sox - but there is a strong argument he helped the Red Sox as much as he would have had we kept him. (and I am ignoring his UCL injury, which nobody is reponsible for) That is DEFINITELY true with Moncada. Certainly they provided more value than just collecting fleas for less than minimum wage on the farm.

[bkzwhitestrican]

The Yankees have also had quite a reversal in position.

 

Not to the point where they've dropped to dead last. They may not have MLB ready stars anymore, but they still had 2 guys in the top 100 (Lasagna, Florial) and 1 other guy who Keith Law said was 101st on his list (Pereira). Some of the more reputable team farm rankings don't come out until February, but I'm willing to bet that the Yankees finish somewhere in the middle of the pack.

[sk7326]

Not to the point where they've dropped to dead last. They may not have MLB ready stars anymore, but they still had 2 guys in the top 100 (Lasagna, Florial) and 1 other guy who Keith Law said was 101st on his list (Pereira). Some of the more reputable team farm rankings don't come out until February, but I'm willing to bet that the Yankees finish somewhere in the middle of the pack.

 

Law's deep dive comes next week ... he's already pointed out that the Red Sox farm was beset by injuries last year, and of course like many teams (say the Cubs) they used a lot of their blocked depth to build a WS winner. He likes the last few drafts and the work on the international front. When most of your talent is towards single-A your ranking will be low, but with a large range of outcomes.

[jacksonianmarch]

Not to the point where they've dropped to dead last. They may not have MLB ready stars anymore, but they still had 2 guys in the top 100 (Lasagna, Florial) and 1 other guy who Keith Law said was 101st on his list (Pereira). Some of the more reputable team farm rankings don't come out until February, but I'm willing to bet that the Yankees finish somewhere in the middle of the pack.

 

You cannot graduate the guys we graduated and not drop. That being said, our pitching farm is top notch. I'd say in talent at least top 10, in volume, top 2 or 3. The prospect game is HEAVILY focuses on the position player side and for good reason. There is a reason why there's a weird acronym, TINSTAAPP. There is no such thing as a pitching prospect. Reason behind it is easy to see with Jason Groome. World of talent, cannot stay healthy. Or Rick Ankiel, worlds of talent, ten cent head. The list goes on and on, and to some degree we have seen that in the Yankee system. Adams gets hurt and loses velocity, Acevedo cannot stay healthy, Abreu misses half the season with a myriad of injuries, etc. But the fact remains that the Yankees up and down the system have more pitching talent than most everybody and I will stand by that comment. Where the Yankees have lost is clearly on the position player front. You graduate Sanchez, Judge, Torres, and Andujar and you just cannot replace those guys while being a playoff team. It just wont happen. Couple that with the deals of Solak and DTW, the injury of Florial and the lack of progress of the 2014 INTL signees and you see why the position player side has scuffled. We have a significant amount of recently added talent, but we may not see any of those guys even in long season leagues in 2019. That will ALWAYS drop you in the rankings. We can use the pitching side to get who we want. We should graduate a few of them.

[sk7326]

Not to the point where they've dropped to dead last. They may not have MLB ready stars anymore, but they still had 2 guys in the top 100 (Lasagna, Florial) and 1 other guy who Keith Law said was 101st on his list (Pereira). Some of the more reputable team farm rankings don't come out until February, but I'm willing to bet that the Yankees finish somewhere in the middle of the pack.

 

Law in one of his chats noted really the most reputable rankings for him are MLB.com, BA and Fangraphs ... Law and fangraphs make personal evaluations of the kids, mlb and BA do not. There is obviously not a right or wrong way, but it is interesting to see where the approaches get you.

[moonslav59]

Not to the point where they've dropped to dead last. They may not have MLB ready stars anymore, but they still had 2 guys in the top 100 (Lasagna, Florial) and 1 other guy who Keith Law said was 101st on his list (Pereira). Some of the more reputable team farm rankings don't come out until February, but I'm willing to bet that the Yankees finish somewhere in the middle of the pack.

 

I'd guess...

 

NYY 12-20

 

BOS 22-30

[jacksonianmarch]

I'd guess...

 

NYY 12-20

 

BOS 22-30

 

Mayo had NY at #10 before the Paxton trade. Law has and always will be a puke. I don't pay any attention to his s*** because he sees a guy once and will take that assessment to be what the player will be forever. I remember his take on Judge wouldn't change until the ASB in 2017.

[sk7326]

Mayo had NY at #10 before the Paxton trade. Law has and always will be a puke. I don't pay any attention to his s*** because he sees a guy once and will take that assessment to be what the player will be forever. I remember his take on Judge wouldn't change until the ASB in 2017.

 

... so, it was not forever?

[jacksonianmarch]

Until they’ve proven him wrong in the big leagues

[moonslav59]

Until they’ve proven him wrong in the big leagues

 

Can anyone really be proven wrong in the minors?