The Pen

[notin]

Bell , with Cleveland I think it was more a case of Tito not wanting to give Allen' s spot to the new guy , Miller . Miller was very willing to go along with anything . Anyway , Andrew Miller was used and abused , and became burnt out . It looks like the Brewers are looking to do the same thing to Hader .

 

Actually Francina said Miller would be used against tougher hitters. And if those tougher hitters came up in the ninth, Miller and not Allen got the call. It had nothing to do with Miller being the “new guy.”

 

Hader was being used similarly in Milwaukee last year, but their pen has had too many injuries this year and he’s been everywhere...

[Bellhorn04]

That all depends on the pitcher himself. Some pitchers get nervous facing the 7-8-9 hitters in the bottom of the fifth and some get amped up for those high pressure moments. And some, like Cliff Lee, just act like nothing fazes them at all...

 

I don't disagree with that, but I'm just talking in general terms. The bottom of the ninth with a one run lead is different from the bottom of the seventh with a one run lead. If you give up two runs in the bottom of the ninth it's irrevocable - it's a walkoff, baby.

[S5Dewey]

I don't disagree with that, but I'm just talking in general terms. The bottom of the ninth with a one run lead is different from the bottom of the seventh with a one run lead. If you give up two runs in the bottom of the ninth it's irrevocable - it's a walkoff, baby.

 

 

So... are you giving credence to "choke" and "clutch"?

[notin]

So... are you giving credence to "choke" and "clutch"?

 

 

No one ever said they didn’t exist for situations. The debate was whether or not it was a repeatable skill for a player...

[Bellhorn04]

So... are you giving credence to "choke" and "clutch"?

 

Not exactly, not with this point anyway. I'm just saying that higher pressure situations exist, not commenting about players' ability to perform under the pressure.

 

But more to your point, I think there are probably some good relief pitchers who really don't want to be closers because of the pressure. I remember that Tazawa really struggled during the short period he was closer.

[Kimmi]

I don't dispute what you're saying but I find that to be a very odd position. It says that a team will be willing to risk falling behind if they think they have enough innings to come back. Why not just use a "fireman" and stay ahead to begin with??

 

It's about using your best reliever in the highest leverage situation, and about giving your team the best chance to win the game (best win probability). Because the 6th inning (and earlier) is still early in the game in comparison to the 7th, 8th, or 9th, it is not going to be as high leverage as the later innings, all other things being equal. What happens in the 6th inning does not have the same impact on win probability as the same thing happening in the 7th, 8th, or 9th innings.

 

To put it another way, if the opposing team went up by 2 runs in the first inning, their win probability would be much, much smaller than if that team went up by 2 runs in the 8th inning. The leverage of a situation takes into account the inning of the game.

 

Also, if the heart of the order is up in the 6th inning, they are guaranteed to get at least one more bat after that. If they come up in the 7th inning or later, and the relief ace can sit them down, they are not guaranteed to get another at bat in the game.

[Kimmi]

If you don't believe that there is additional pressure pitching the ninth inning , then there is not much left to say . Of course , the Dorito munching nerds in the analytics room can't be expected to understand that . I don't see the new system of using the bullpen catching on all that much . Right now , I don't know if Cora regards Barnes or Brazier as his best reliever . Maybe the nerds know . They will tell him . In nerds we trust .

 

Which situation do you think holds more pressure?

 

Facing the 3, 4, and 5 hitters with 2 men on base and 0 outs in the 8th inning, or facing the 7, 8, and 9 hitters with no men on base and 0 outs in the 9th inning?

 

Also, I like Doritos.

[Bellhorn04]

Which situation do you think holds more pressure?

 

Facing the 3, 4, and 5 hitters with 2 men on base and 0 outs in the 8th inning, or facing the 7, 8, and 9 hitters with no men on base and 0 outs in the 9th inning?

 

I'll try this. I would say the chances of failing are obviously much higher in the first case. But there might actually be no more 'pressure' because you've been brought into an obviously tough situation and left with someone else's mess.

 

In the second situation, on paper it's relatively easy, but the other team might well use one or two pinch-hitters. And if you allow a man on base you will be facing the top of the order.

 

Also, how does the fact that the batting order doesn't matter that much, statistically speaking, factor into this?

[Kimmi]

Some early Red Sox BP ranks in the AL for 2019 (2018 ranks in parentheses for comparison):

 

Overall: 8th (8th)

 

ERA: (9th) (4th)

 

FIP: (5th) (3rd)

 

IP: 6th (8th)

 

HR/9: 11th (4th)

 

K/BB: 3rd (9th)

 

WHIP: 5th (6th)

 

Save %: 66.7% (69.7%) This includes blown saves (holds) before the 9th inning.

[notin]

I'll try this. I would say the chances of failing are obviously much higher in the first case. But there might actually be no more 'pressure' because you've been brought into an obviously tough situation and left with someone else's mess.

 

In the second situation, on paper it's relatively easy, but the other team might well use one or two pinch-hitters. And if you allow a man on base you will be facing the top of the order.

 

Also, how does the fact that the batting order doesn't matter that much, statistically speaking, factor into this?

 

But even in that case, your argument turns into 3-4-5 hitters with 2 on base or 1-2-3 hitters with X men on base and Y men out...

[S5Dewey]

It's about using your best reliever in the highest leverage situation, and about giving your team the best chance to win the game (best win probability). Because the 6th inning (and earlier) is still early in the game in comparison to the 7th, 8th, or 9th, it is not going to be as high leverage as the later innings, all other things being equal. What happens in the 6th inning does not have the same impact on win probability as the same thing happening in the 7th, 8th, or 9th innings.

 

 

Well, to paraphrase and old saying, "You can't win it in the 6th, but you sure can lose it."

[devildavid]

Of course not . That's why it's called a laugher . The stress comes in close games . No question.

 

But that isn't what you said. Your examples were only about the time something takes place in a game. The highest stress depends on multiple factors. And I am not arguing against the highest stress occurring when all those factors come together at the very end of the game. I was simply arguing that the highest stress situations in any given game can occur at any point in that game.

[Kimmi]

I'll try this. I would say the chances of failing are obviously much higher in the first case. But there might actually be no more 'pressure' because you've been brought into an obviously tough situation and left with someone else's mess.

 

In the second situation, on paper it's relatively easy, but the other team might well use one or two pinch-hitters. And if you allow a man on base you will be facing the top of the order.

 

Also, how does the fact that the batting order doesn't matter that much, statistically speaking, factor into this?

 

Fair enough points. Perhaps saying that there is more pressure would not necessarily be true, but the 8th inning situation is definitely the higher leverage situation. I'd want my best reliever out there.

 

As to your question about batting order, in what context do you mean?

 

If you mean how does it impact the scoring in these high leverage situations, the 'batting order doesn't matter much' relates to the course of an entire season. In any particular game, I think we'd all prefer to see our top hitters up in these situations over a struggling JBJ or Leon. That said, the difference in win expectancy of having JD up to bat with bases loaded in the 9th versus having JBJ up to bat in the same situation isn't that great. I don't know the exact % difference, but I know it isn't that big.

[Kimmi]

Fair enough points. Perhaps saying that there is more pressure would not necessarily be true, but the 8th inning situation is definitely the higher leverage situation. I'd want my best reliever out there.

 

As to your question about batting order, in what context do you mean?

 

If you mean how does it impact the scoring in these high leverage situations, the 'batting order doesn't matter much' relates to the course of an entire season. In any particular game, I think we'd all prefer to see our top hitters up in these situations over a struggling JBJ or Leon. That said, the difference in win expectancy of having JD up to bat with bases loaded in the 9th versus having JBJ up to bat in the same situation isn't that great. I don't know the exact % difference, but I know it isn't that big.

 

To be fair, I should also state that the difference in win expectancy of having Barnes pitch the 8th versus having Brewer pitch the 8th isn't as large we'd expect it to be.

[Kimmi]

Well, to paraphrase and old saying, "You can't win it in the 6th, but you sure can lose it."

 

Sure, but it's about giving your team the best chance to win, on the whole.

 

No one can predict what will happen in the later innings of the game, but based on those dreaded statistics and the game situations, a team is likely better off not using its best reliever too early in the game.

 

It's the same idea with sac bunting and playing for one run before the 7th or 8th inning. Don't do it!

[dgalehouse]

Can't win this debate . It just comes down to one's point of view . I think you should use your best reliever to close . In a close game , the final three outs are the toughest . That is my feeling , based on experience. In this case , I think Barnes is the pick . Obviously, some disagree .

[notin]

Can't win this debate . It just comes down to one's point of view . I think you should use your best reliever to close . In a close game , the final three outs are the toughest . That is my feeling , based on experience. In this case , I think Barnes is the pick . Obviously, some disagree .

 

 

Of course if the last 3 outs are the most difficult due to pressure of the situation, isn’t some of that offset by the hitters also feeling pressure?

 

Best pitcher vs best hitters always makes the most sense to me and I’ve been saying so for several years. It does seem like a lot of MLB managers are starting to agree with that philosophy...

[sk7326]

Can't win this debate . It just comes down to one's point of view . I think you should use your best reliever to close . In a close game , the final three outs are the toughest . That is my feeling , based on experience. In this case , I think Barnes is the pick . Obviously, some disagree .

 

This isn't really true. It's 3 outs with the bases empty. There are trickier positions. Fortunately the Red Sox have a few decent options and have deployed them okay.

[SCM33]

The bullpen hasnt been so bad lately.

 

Because of Walden, not Barnes.

 

Barnes shits his pants in any close/late situation. Barnes is perfect for the 6th inning with a 3 run lead.

[S5Dewey]

Sure, but it's about giving your team the best chance to win, on the whole.

 

No one can predict what will happen in the later innings of the game, but based on those dreaded statistics and the game situations, a team is likely better off not using its best reliever too early in the game.

 

But isn't a manager giving his team the best chance to win if he tries to maintain a lead rather than risk falling behind and saving that best reliever for a situation that may never happen - because the team is now behind?

 

I'v always been a believer in having a CLOSER. A guy who can go out there in the 9th and to the job, but now I'm coming around to thinking that there's a better way to use that shut-down guy, and it's to bring him in for the highest leverage situations.

 

As Leo DeRocher said, "Don't save a pitcher for tomorrow. It may rain tomorrow".

 

S5Dewey is now beginning to say, "Don't save your best reliever for the 9th. You may be behind in the 9th."

Edited May 6, 2019 by S5Dewey

[moonslav59]

But isn't a manager giving his team the best chance to win if he tries to maintain a lead rather than risk falling behind and saving that best reliever for a situation that may never happen - because the team is now behind?

 

I'v always been a believer in having a CLOSER. A guy who can go out there in the 9th and to the job, but now I'm coming around to thinking that there's a better way to use that shut-down guy, and it's to bring him in for the highest leverage situations.

 

As Leo DeRocher said, "Don't save a pitcher for tomorrow. It may rain tomorrow".

 

S5Dewey is now beginning to say, "Don't save your best reliever for the 9th. You may be behind in the 9th."

 

I'm with you.

[dgalehouse]

But isn't a manager giving his team the best chance to win if he tries to maintain a lead rather than risk falling behind and saving that best reliever for a situation that may never happen - because the team is now behind?

 

I'v always been a believer in having a CLOSER. A guy who can go out there in the 9th and to the job, but now I'm coming around to thinking that there's a better way to use that shut-down guy, and it's to bring him in for the highest leverage situations.

 

As Leo DeRocher said, "Don't save a pitcher for tomorrow. It may rain tomorrow".

 

S5Dewey is now beginning to say, "Don't save your best reliever for the 9th. You may be behind in the 9th."

 

Dewey , the answer to that is that you need more than one quality arm in the pen . You have to trust your set up guys too . If you can't trust them in the 7th , how are you going to trust them in the ninth ? As far as the scenario where you bring a guy in with the bases loaded , no outs and the best hitters coming up , come on . Give me a break . Are you going to base your strategy on that improbable situation?

[S5Dewey]

Dewey , the answer to that is that you need more than one quality arm in the pen . You have to trust your set up guys too . If you can't trust them in the 7th , how are you going to trust them in the ninth ? As far as the scenario where you bring a guy in with the bases loaded , no outs and the best hitters coming up , come on . Give me a break . Are you going to base your strategy on that improbable situation?

 

Well, we base our closer strategy on bringing in our best reliever to start a clean inning in the 9th and a lesser pitcher to get out of the high leverage situations. Think about that for a minute... does that make any sense?

[Bellhorn04]

Well, we base our closer strategy on bringing in our best reliever to start a clean inning in the 9th and a lesser pitcher to get out of the high leverage situations. Think about that for a minute... does that make any sense?

 

So what's the earliest you would use your best reliever in a regular season game, say in May?

[dgalehouse]

Well, we base our closer strategy on bringing in our best reliever to start a clean inning in the 9th and a lesser pitcher to get out of the high leverage situations. Think about that for a minute... does that make any sense?

 

The ninth is high leverage in a close game . Do you want your closer warming up in the seventh, just in case the pitcher gets in a big jam ? Is that a good policy ? Are you going to do that all the time ? I can see doing it occasionally, but that is all .

[Bellhorn04]

The ninth is high leverage in a close game . Do you want your closer warming up in the seventh, just in case the pitcher gets in a big jam ? Is that a good policy ? Are you going to do that all the time ? I can see doing it occasionally, but that is all .

 

Good point about the warming up part, which sometimes gets overlooked.

[S5Dewey]

So what's the earliest you would use your best reliever in a regular season game, say in May?

 

If forced to pick a number I'd probably say the 6th, considering that the team has at least two relievers whom I have some confidence in.

[S5Dewey]

The ninth is high leverage in a close game . Do you want your closer warming up in the seventh, just in case the pitcher gets in a big jam ? Is that a good policy ? Are you going to do that all the time ? I can see doing it occasionally, but that is all .

 

We do that now, only not with our "closer".

 

I don't mind responding to a hypothetical question as long as you realize you're going to get a hypothetical answer.

To answer your question, obviously it would depend on the situation. Say the Sox are nursing a 2-0 lead in the 6th and the other team's #8 & 9 get on base, I'd get the best reliever up and tossing, just like I would with any other reliever. Remember, "tossing", starting to warm up, is different from the hard throwing when a pitcher is getting ready to come into the game.

 

But if the score were 14-12 with the #8 hitter coming up I wouldn't do it as quickly. I wouldn't because I have faith in our offense to score runs in the succeeding innings.

 

Hypothetically.

[notin]

Dewey , the answer to that is that you need more than one quality arm in the pen . You have to trust your set up guys too . If you can't trust them in the 7th , how are you going to trust them in the ninth ? As far as the scenario where you bring a guy in with the bases loaded , no outs and the best hitters coming up , come on . Give me a break . Are you going to base your strategy on that improbable situation?

 

 

Having more quality arms would be great. But if you don’t have them, you have to work with what you have.

 

I’ve been plugging the idea of using your best arm for high leverage over straight up closer for several years now, and I think it’s really cool to see several teams adopt this philosophy. My one caveat is I do think the sixth might be a tad early to bring in the high leverage pitcher, but only because those dreaded opposing best hitters still are guaranteed another plate appearance. But then we all saw Francona bring in Miller in the ALDS a couple years ago that early and it worked out just fine...

[Slasher9]

i dont think our BP has been a problem at all this season? how many games have they "cost" us? you can say the game 4 days ago but i could argue that one was on devers.

our BP is fine.

our lineup is fine.

our SP is fine.

this is a championship caliber team.

back to back to back to back.

book it.