What would a Betts extension be?

[jacksonianmarch]

The Sox can afford him, but they’d end up like the Angels with a team full of scrubs surrounding a stud player. Betts is the rare ultra talented player who will hit FA at a young age. He’s not Harper, he’s far better. Bryce plays awful defense. Betts plays GG defense. Bryce doesn’t run. Mookie can steal 30. Harper hasn’t been healthy or consistent, Betts has averaged 8 WAR the last 3 seasons. He’s not Trout, but he’s close.

 

With DD at the helm, I actually think Betts is definitely going to be re-signed. He’s a star seeker, so he won’t let him walk without being the top offer. The problem with DD right now is the farm system. You can re-sign some of your star players, but you have to be able to let some go and replace them from within to win with big contracts. DD’s farm is short on talent, so the likelihood of being able to re-sign Betts and field a top notch squad is low

 

I do wonder what the arb number will be for 2020 for Bette. Probably over $30 mil

[Slasher9]

More from that story:

 

"Two other sources said the Red Sox have made several attempts at a long-term deal with Betts, including this past offseason, with the Betts camp not even making a counter-proposal."

 

https://nypost.com/2019/03/19/mookie-betts-rejecting-red-sox-looks-more-lucrative-by-the-second/

 

 

I wonder what numbers were discussed this offseason...

 

It sure seems like he is heading to free agency unless we blow him out of the water with an offer at this point.

 

sup FJ. no doubt he will wait it out and go to FA. the quantity of #50 jerseys being sold over the next couple years may dictate how far JH is willing to go.......

[S5Dewey]

The Sox can afford him, but they’d end up like the Angels with a team full of scrubs surrounding a stud player.

 

That may be true, but you can say that about just about any club - I think. I'm unsure because it assumes that we have knowledge of how much money the owners have and are willing to spend.

 

I can remember when I first heard that Catfish Hunter had been signed for $3M. I said "Outrageous! They can't afford to pay one player that kind of money!" Now we have at least one signing per year of $30M AAV with no end in sight.

 

Where's the limit? I don't know and you don't know. Maybe the Halo's will collapse under the weight of Trout's contract, or maybe they'll be the one to sign Betts for more money than Trout is getting.

 

As I keep saying, we have no idea how much money there is floating around out there in MLB but what we do know is that it's more than most of us ever dreamed.

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox can afford him, but they’d end up like the Angels with a team full of scrubs surrounding a stud player.

 

A wee bit of an exaggeration, of course.

 

Mookie is making $20 mill this year, and Pablo is on the LT payroll for $18.5 mill.

 

So next year we could pay Mookie $38.5 mill and still have the same LT payroll.

 

But as has been said, if we extend both Sale and Mookie, we're going to be paying them and Price $100 mill until the year 2022.

 

That leaves $100-120 mill for the rest of the team, assuming that JH is still willing to exceed the first LT cap by $20-40 mill, which remains to be seen of course.

[moonslav59]

Porcello will almost certainly be gone after this year.

 

He's been our horse, so it will be hard to replace him without spending anything. D Hernandez may be our best hope in keeping Betts & Sale while remaining competitive.

 

We'll also need Chavis/Dalbec to replace Pearce/Moreland after this year. Losing Pablo, Porcello, Pearce & Moreland's contracts will help, but with rising arb costs and a few other holes to fill, it won't be easy to keep a fine supporting cast around Betts, Sale, Price and maybe Bogey/JD, if we stay below the tax lines and pay 3 guys over $100M.

[Nick]

Porcello will almost certainly be gone after this year.

 

He's been our horse, so it will be hard to replace him without spending anything. D Hernandez may be our best hope in keeping Betts & Sale while remaining competitive.

 

We'll also need Chavis/Dalbec to replace Pearce/Moreland after this year. Losing Pablo, Porcello, Pearce & Moreland's contracts will help, but with rising arb costs and a few other holes to fill, it won't be easy to keep a fine supporting cast around Betts, Sale, Price and maybe Bogey/JD, if we stay below the tax lines and pay 3 guys over $100M.

 

Suppose we take care of Sale with his current salary plus Pablo's $18M this year, that's total of $33M.

 

I'm not opposed to trading Betts after 2019. I would think we would get at least a young, established starting pitcher for him.

 

You can then use Betts' $20M, Pearce/Moreland's $13M and sign two quality FA's.

 

Trout and Betts can have greater impact over 162 game season. But I will take an elite starting pitcher over any position player for the World Series. Betts and JD did very little in the World Series.

 

No way in hell I'd give Betts $40M for 10 years.

Edited March 20, 2019 by Nick

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

 

Mookie Betts says he loves it in Boston, would be a great place to spend his career, but recent extensions ‘don’t impact me that much.’ He wants what he feels is fair, and that he and the Sox have disagreed on what that is, but suggests that hasn’t hurt relationship w/team.

[jacksonianmarch]

@alexspeier

 

Mookie Betts says he loves it in Boston, would be a great place to spend his career, but recent extensions ‘don’t impact me that much.’ He wants what he feels is fair, and that he and the Sox have disagreed on what that is, but suggests that hasn’t hurt relationship w/team.

 

He’s gonna get top dollar.

[BillyWilliams]

Mike Trout’s $432 million deal spells disaster for the Red Sox

By BILL MADDEN

| NEW YORK DAILY NEWS |

MAR 19, 2019 | 4:50 PM

 

 

JUPITER, Fla. – Bryce Harper can cancel his recruiting pitch. The Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies, Cubs, Giants, and whoever else can cease their 2020 dreaming. Mike Trout has ended all speculation about what he might do in two years by signing what is by far the richest deal in sports history, 12 years/$432 million, essentially to remain an LA Angel for life.

 

And the happiest man on the baseball planet today is Mookie Betts.

 

First off, you have to give Angels owner Arte Moreno credit. He couldn’t miss what was coming – a wild bidding war for his two-time AL MVP superstar center fielder in two years should Trout have elected to opt out of his contract. Harper’s Phillies are only 45 miles away from Trout’s home town of Millville, NJ, and would have been front and center when bidding opened. It would have been a war he likely could not have won. So Moreno took advantage of the fact Trout is still his player and under his control and exercised a preemptive strike to put an end, once and for all, to the endless rumors about Trout wanting to go to a team that could get him to a World Series - a place the Angels haven’t come close to yet in his first seven-plus years with them.

 

It is not known how hard Moreno gulped while doling out the biggest contract – by far – in sports history. He still owes Albert Pujols another $87 million more through 2021 in one of the dumbest contracts ever, after all. The commitment to Trout is about $344 million more than Moreno paid for the entire Angel franchise in 2003. But this is a new age in baseball where a player like Harper, who hit under .250 in two of the last three seasons and has really had only one superstar season, can get $330 million. Trout is a special player, one of the best ever, who’s only just now entering his prime, and Moreno knew he had to keep him at all costs, if only for the value Trout adds to his franchise.

 

And you have to give credit to Trout. For despite, all those rumors, he never had any desire to leave the Angels, the team who originally signed him. He’s very happy living in beautiful Laguna Beach, and he always wanted to be what is now: an ever-so-rare one-team player. He never gave a thought to going to the Phillies. He knew he was going to get the $400 million plus, especially after Harper completed his 13-year, $330 million deal with them. There’s no comparison between the two players. But instead of putting Moreno off, with an eye on going out onto the open market where all of baseball biggest spenders would be bidding wildly for his services, he put loyalty and comfort ahead of the money. That’s why there are no opt-outs in this contract and he has a full no-trade clause.

 

What has not changed with the contract, however, is the Angels are still not a very good team, not in the absence of a single bona fide No. 1 starter. Twelve years is a long time and maybe they’ll start to develop quality front line starting pitching and add some All-Star caliber players around Trout. For Trout’s sake – or maybe it’s for our sake too - we can only hope he doesn’t replicate Ernie Banks, a great player, super great guy, good will ambassador for all of baseball, who spent his entire career with the Chicago Cubs and never got to showcase his vast talents in the World Series.

 

So now that Trout is out of play, the focus is squarely on Betts, the Red Sox’ defending AL MVP, who will be a free agent in 2020. When Betts rejected their eight-year/$200 million extension offer after the 2017 season, the Red Sox were resigned to going year-to-year with him in arbitration, including the record $20 million he got this year in his second go-round in the process. But now they are in the same predicament as Arte Moreno was. Betts, only 25, is coming off a monster season in which he led the AL in batting (.346) and slugging (.640) with 32 homers and 30 stolen bases and his third Gold Glove. At the same time, he hasn’t sounded like he embraces Boston in the same way Trout does southern California. After settling his arbitration case, Betts said: “Boston is definitely a tough atmosphere to play. Not everyone is cut out for it.”

 

It would sure seem the last thing the Red Sox want to do is to let Betts get out into the open market in 2020, because if that happens, they will also probably lose. The reverberations of the Trout contract were being felt all through the Fenway Park offices Tuesday. The sound you heard was John Henry gulping at thought of now having to double that $200 million Betts turned down in 2017 and hoping it’ll be enough to convince his star to be a Boston Red Sox for life.

 

https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/ny-mike-trout-430-million-angels-red-sox-20190319-zelrrihrojhbhiql23nbmwy3le-story.html

[moonslav59]

Ho-hum

[mvp 78]

He’s gonna get top dollar.

 

He deserves it and the Sox should pay it. That's been MY position all along. All these other posters wetting their pants over Henry's checking account are weird to me.

[Slasher9]

meh...judge is better. right?

[notin]

He deserves it and the Sox should pay it. That's been MY position all along. All these other posters wetting their pants over Henry's checking account are weird to me.

 

 

No one cares about Henry’s checking account.

 

But some fans do care how these mega contracts do impact the roster especially since the Sox clearly refuse to spend without limits. Not sure why that is a tough concept for so many to grasp.

 

Don’t you think maybe if the Sox still didn’t have Sandoval on the books, they might have made a push for Kimbrel or Ottavino or Robertson?

[notin]

meh...judge is better. right?

 

I don’t know. According to Jacko, Judge is only worth $6mill per year more than Pearce.

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

I don’t know. According to Jacko, Judge is only worth $6mill per year more than Pearce.

 

 

 

If you projected out WAR/game over the last 2 seasons, they’re pretty even. Projected over a 162 game season, Betts is 0.7WAR better than Judge, so not a big difference. The issue right now with Judge is he is still in pre-arb whereas Betts has already gotten $30 mil guaranteed. Also, Judge is 6 months older than Betts but has two less years of service time, meaning he’s gonna hit FA as an older guy and will demand a lesser contract. I thought buying out a year of control would cost us a bit, but I’d do a Bregman contract with Judge right now. Bregman and Judge are the same in terms of service time. I’d keep Judge on the books as pre-arb and sign him to a $20 mil AAV over 5 years and buy out 2 FA seasons

[notin]

If you projected out WAR/game over the last 2 seasons, they’re pretty even. Projected over a 162 game season, Betts is 0.7WAR better than Judge, so not a big difference. The issue right now with Judge is he is still in pre-arb whereas Betts has already gotten $30 mil guaranteed. Also, Judge is 6 months older than Betts but has two less years of service time, meaning he’s gonna hit FA as an older guy and will demand a lesser contract. I thought buying out a year of control would cost us a bit, but I’d do a Bregman contract with Judge right now. Bregman and Judge are the same in terms of service time. I’d keep Judge on the books as pre-arb and sign him to a $20 mil AAV over 5 years and buy out 2 FA seasons

 

 

Not Betts. Pearce.

 

Your original projection for Pearce was it would take a 4yr/$36mill contract to sign him at $9mill AAV.

 

And you thought Judge would be worth a 4yr / $60mill extension at $15mill AAV. Or that Judge is worth $6mill per year more than a weak side platoon 1b.

 

Just picking on your (slightly biased) projections...

[BillyWilliams]

No one cares about Henry’s checking account.

 

But some fans do care how these mega contracts do impact the roster especially since the Sox clearly refuse to spend without limits. Not sure why that is a tough concept for so many to grasp.

 

Don’t you think maybe if the Sox still didn’t have Sandoval on the books, they might have made a push for Kimbrel or Ottavino or Robertson?

 

Probably because lvp 78 is not the brightest candle on the cake.........

[jacksonianmarch]

Not Betts. Pearce.

 

Your original projection for Pearce was it would take a 4yr/$36mill contract to sign him at $9mill AAV.

 

And you thought Judge would be worth a 4yr / $60mill extension at $15mill AAV. Or that Judge is worth $6mill per year more than a weak side platoon 1b.

 

Just picking on your (slightly biased) projections...

 

And what did Bregman just sign? He got 2 extra years at $20 mil AAV, but his next 4 seasons, he will see $60 mil.

[jacksonianmarch]

Betts offered another hint about his own views on his value and how he intends to pursue a contract that matches it. While he called some of the recent extensions “great deals” for the players involved, he also noted that “some of them could’ve gotten more.”

 

This from mlbtraderumors.com. He intends to get top dollar and thinks some of these players left money on the table

[notin]

If you projected out WAR/game over the last 2 seasons, they’re pretty even. Projected over a 162 game season, Betts is 0.7WAR better than Judge, so not a big difference. The issue right now with Judge is he is still in pre-arb whereas Betts has already gotten $30 mil guaranteed. Also, Judge is 6 months older than Betts but has two less years of service time, meaning he’s gonna hit FA as an older guy and will demand a lesser contract. I thought buying out a year of control would cost us a bit, but I’d do a Bregman contract with Judge right now. Bregman and Judge are the same in terms of service time. I’d keep Judge on the books as pre-arb and sign him to a $20 mil AAV over 5 years and buy out 2 FA seasons

 

 

A more reasonable extension for Judge.

 

Figure in 3 arbitration years, Judge easily gets $50mill. Maybe more, but probably not over $60mill.

 

In free agency, if he goes 2 years earlier without the extension, he hits for his age 31 season. He’s probably looking at a JD Martinez contract (5 years $110 mill). So that gives him about $160-170 over the next 8 years.

 

If he accepts it and hits the market at 33, he might be only looking at 4 years $70, giving $170mill over the next 8 years.

 

Roughly even and absolutely worth it for Judge. If I was his agent, I’d tell him to take it...

[notin]

And what did Bregman just sign? He got 2 extra years at $20 mil AAV, but his next 4 seasons, he will see $60 mil.

 

Bergman signed a 5 year $100 mill extension, not, per your original estimate, a 4 year $60mill extension...

[jacksonianmarch]

I would do it in a heartbeat. I adds 2 years of control on an icon and puts him just a tick below Stanton in AAV

[notin]

Probably because lvp 78 is not the brightest candle on the cake.........

 

 

Aren’t you supposed to be in school?

[redsoxrules]

Porcello will almost certainly be gone after this year.

 

He's been our horse, so it will be hard to replace him without spending anything. D Hernandez may be our best hope in keeping Betts & Sale while remaining competitive.

 

We'll also need Chavis/Dalbec to replace Pearce/Moreland after this year. Losing Pablo, Porcello, Pearce & Moreland's contracts will help, but with rising arb costs and a few other holes to fill, it won't be easy to keep a fine supporting cast around Betts, Sale, Price and maybe Bogey/JD, if we stay below the tax lines and pay 3 guys over $100M.

 

I'm not concerned about letting porcello go. Aside from his CY young year hes been so darn inconsistent. Also leads mlb the last 2 years at giving up the long ball.

 

I like the fact that hes reliable and eats up inning BUT hes not worth 20 million.

[mvp 78]

No one cares about Henry’s checking account.

 

But some fans do care how these mega contracts do impact the roster especially since the Sox clearly refuse to spend without limits. Not sure why that is a tough concept for so many to grasp.

 

Don’t you think maybe if the Sox still didn’t have Sandoval on the books, they might have made a push for Kimbrel or Ottavino or Robertson?

 

If you don't understand the difference between Sandoval/Hanley and Mookie, I'm not sure what to tell you.

[mvp 78]

Probably because lvp 78 is not the brightest candle on the cake.........

 

Says the guy who reposts nobody journalists and touts them as important............... LOL

[BillyWilliams]

Aren’t you supposed to be in school?

 

Read his reply to you and tell me I'm wrong...........

[notin]

If you don't understand the difference between Sandoval/Hanley and Mookie, I'm not sure what to tell you.

 

 

I do, but I also understand the difference between Bogaerts and Chatham and the difference between Sale and Sharwyn.

 

And the extremely relevant difference between Kimbrel / Britton / Robertson / Ottavino and Colten Brewer...

[mvp 78]

Read his reply to you and tell me I'm wrong...........

 

Read my reply to you and tell me I'm wrong..................

[mvp 78]

I do, but I also understand the difference between Bogaerts and Chatham and the difference between Sale and Sharwyn.

 

And the extremely relevant difference between Kimbrel / Britton / Robertson / Ottavino and Colten Brewer...

 

Henry can afford all of these guys. The theory that he has to pick and choose is just letting him off the hook IMO.