What would a Betts extension be?

[Bellhorn04]

Hey, better than being the captain and going down with the ship...

 

I warned these guys there was going to be an invasion.

 

I think if mvp was the moderator then, he would have had tighter immigration policies.

[moonslav59]

I warned these guys there was going to be an invasion.

 

I think if mvp was the moderator then, he would have had tighter immigration policies.

 

Well, Obama was President, so us dreamers became legal.

[jacksonianmarch]

It’s obviously way early, but the JD Martinez opt out isn’t necessarily a sure thing. If next year is anything like this year, he’ll probably wind up costing himself a lot if he opts out. The closest comp in terms of age and overall ability might be AJ Pollock, and his deal was nowhere near what JD still has remaining on his contract.

 

Now AJ does have that whole “can’t stay on the field” thing, but how much is that worth?

 

JD is one of the top 5 hitters in the majors over the last 3 years. He’s far better than Pollock. The thing about JD is that his final 3 seasons come at less then $20 mil AAV. This was always a glorified 2 year deal from the start. JD on the open market would either get more years at a similar AAV or a higher AAV for the same years. If he ends the year healthy and continues his trend, he’ll get paid

[notin]

JD is one of the top 5 hitters in the majors over the last 3 years. He’s far better than Pollock. The thing about JD is that his final 3 seasons come at less then $20 mil AAV. This was always a glorified 2 year deal from the start. JD on the open market would either get more years at a similar AAV or a higher AAV for the same years. If he ends the year healthy and continues his trend, he’ll get paid

 

 

Not true on several fronts

 

1. JD Martinez makes $23.8mill in 2019 and 2020. It’s not until 2021 and 2022 that he sees a salary drop all the way down to $19.4mill

2. In the last 3 years, Martinez was worth 11.9 fWAR. In his last 3 full seasons, AJ Pollock was worth 11.5 fWAR. (Pollock missed almost all of 2016.)

3. Only 6 players this off-season received contracts of 4 or more years. Of those 6, only 31 year old Pollock was over 30. Martinez will be 32 when this season ends.

4. While I would expect Martinez to top Pollock’s deal of 4 years $55mill, by how much? He has 4 years / $86.4 mill remaining if he never opts out, which he can do after 2019, 2020, or 2021. Will he even get a 4 year $86.4mill contract on the market now? No one was interested in him when he was 2 years younger

5. As his salary in 2020 is the same as 2018 and 2019, not sure why you would call it a “glorified two year contract.” Even if he waits until after 2020, he will still be collecting $23.4mill that year, likely more than he gets as a free agent.

 

It might make sense for him to at least wait until after 2020, at a minimum...

Edited March 13, 2019 by notin

[notin]

I warned these guys there was going to be an invasion.

 

I think if mvp was the moderator then, he would have had tighter immigration policies.

 

 

I’m glad he held off taking the reigns. I really didn’t like freeforums much at all...

[SCM33]

This board was NEVER associated with the Boston Globe.

 

See, this is what I am talking about you dickhead. Last time I came back, those assclowns went after me. How about having my back this time since I have been here since 2005? MVP, you need to sell this place to me, to have people as great as I am.....post here.

[jacksonianmarch]

Not true on several fronts

 

1. JD Martinez makes $23.8mill in 2019 and 2020. It’s not until 2021 and 2022 that he sees a salary drop all the way down to $19.4mill

2. In the last 3 years, Martinez was worth 11.9 fWAR. In his last 3 full seasons, AJ Pollock was worth 11.5 fWAR. (Pollock missed almost all of 2016.)

3. Only 6 players this off-season received contracts of 4 or more years. Of those 6, only 31 year old Pollock was over 30. Martinez will be 32 when this season ends.

4. While I would expect Martinez to top Pollock’s deal of 4 years $55mill, by how much? He has 4 years / $86.4 mill remaining if he never opts out, which he can do after 2019, 2020, or 2021. Will he even get a 4 year $86.4mill contract on the market now? No one was interested in him when he was 2 years younger

5. As his salary in 2020 is the same as 2018 and 2019, not sure why you would call it a “glorified two year contract.” Even if he waits until after 2020, he will still be collecting $23.4mill that year, likely more than he gets as a free agent.

 

It might make sense for him to at least wait until after 2020, at a minimum...

 

Pollock hasn’t had a 2.5+ WAR season since 2015.

JD has posted almost 10 WAR over the last two seasons while either not playing defense or playing terrible defense. There is a huge market for a guy who is an auto lock to hit .300 with 30HR in the middle of your lineup. He will significantly out earn Pollock.

[notin]

Pollock hasn’t had a 2.5+ WAR season since 2015.

JD has posted almost 10 WAR over the last two seasons while either not playing defense or playing terrible defense. There is a huge market for a guy who is an auto lock to hit .300 with 30HR in the middle of your lineup. He will significantly out earn Pollock.

 

But from this year’s market, Pollock is the best comp.

 

Anyway, topping Pollock is hardly the goal here. Can he top $86.4mill over 4 years at age 32? I don’t think it’s the gimme you think it is...

[Slasher9]

But from this year’s market, Pollock is the best comp.

 

Anyway, topping Pollock is hardly the goal here. Can he top $86.4mill over 4 years at age 32? I don’t think it’s the gimme you think it is...

 

it's not a gimme. especially at this age he is basically a DH only so that wipes out 1/2 the league bidding on his service. his comp should be David Ortiz. 86/4 at age 32 for a DH is an overpay.

[jacksonianmarch]

He doesn't need to top the number you are noting. He is playing 2019 in Boston. Can he get more than 3 yrs $62.45 mil on the open market? I think he definitely can. I could see a 4 yr $75 mil deal come his way if he opts out. The AAV is lower, sure, but it guarantees him and extra $12.55 mil in his age 36 season. That is not a given

[notin]

He doesn't need to top the number you are noting. He is playing 2019 in Boston. Can he get more than 3 yrs $62.45 mil on the open market? I think he definitely can. I could see a 4 yr $75 mil deal come his way if he opts out. The AAV is lower, sure, but it guarantees him and extra $12.55 mil in his age 36 season. That is not a given

 

 

From who?

 

It’s actually not too early to suggest the post-2019 candidates. Most of the perennial big spenders don’t appear to need him accept Boston, and the past two offseasons cannot be inspiring to any potential free agent over 30. And for all of the “there’s always a market for a .300 hitting 30HR player,” where was it for JD himself one year ago? When he was 2 years younger than he will be this off-season ?

 

His best course of action might be to wait until after 2020, when he’s only leaving 2 years $39mill on the table. At that point, any deal better than 3yr/$51mill is better than your scenario.

 

You might be vastly overvaluing his market appeal, much like you did with Pearce this off-season...

Edited March 13, 2019 by notin

[jacksonianmarch]

From who?

 

It’s actually not too early to suggest the post-2019 candidates. Most of the perennial big spenders don’t appear to need him accept Boston, and the past two offseasons cannot be inspiring to any potential free agent over 30. And for all of the “there’s always a market for a .300 hitting 30HR player,” where was it for JD himself one year ago? When he was 2 years younger than he will be this off-season ?

 

His best course of action might be to wait until after 2020, when he’s only leaving 2 years $39mill on the table.

 

You might be vastly overvaluing his market appeal, much like you did with Pearce this off-season...

 

JD was coming off a Lisfranc injury and couldn't stay healthy the prior seasons. If he puts in 140+ games again this year, his market will be much larger. You also need to consider the other teams starting to emerge from their hibernation. The White Sox were in on offense heavily this offseason, and my guess is they will be again this offseason as the Guardians start to fall and no team rises up. That is a large market club with big pockets and would be a soft landing spot for JD. I don't see any other AL East squads looking at him unless the Yanks go addition by subtraction and push Stanton to LF permanently. I doubt the Guardians, Twins, or Tigers go for him. The AL West is always messy and with Ohtani being a strict DH, makes it less likely that Martinez would go out there. If Texas thinks it can jump start it's rebuild, it might go that route or Houston could jump in for instant offense. I doubt most NL teams would go for him unless he converts to 1b. Either way, all teams could use him. The question is, is there a market? I think there will be, especially with a bat like Arenado off the market

[moonslav59]

JD was coming off a Lisfranc injury and couldn't stay healthy the prior seasons. If he puts in 140+ games again this year, his market will be much larger. You also need to consider the other teams starting to emerge from their hibernation. The White Sox were in on offense heavily this offseason, and my guess is they will be again this offseason as the Guardians start to fall and no team rises up. That is a large market club with big pockets and would be a soft landing spot for JD. I don't see any other AL East squads looking at him unless the Yanks go addition by subtraction and push Stanton to LF permanently. I doubt the Guardians, Twins, or Tigers go for him. The AL West is always messy and with Ohtani being a strict DH, makes it less likely that Martinez would go out there. If Texas thinks it can jump start it's rebuild, it might go that route or Houston could jump in for instant offense. I doubt most NL teams would go for him unless he converts to 1b. Either way, all teams could use him. The question is, is there a market? I think there will be, especially with a bat like Arenado off the market

 

JD will be much older and past prime.

 

He is now a DH with negative OF numbers.

 

He plays OF like Papi played 1B. Papi never approached the contract numbers JD is getting, even though that was a few years back, and he never became a FA.

[jacksonianmarch]

Papi played the long game with Boston and is a cultural icon here. JD is a mercenary and will never reach that status. Mercenaries go to the highest bidder.

[notin]

JD was coming off a Lisfranc injury and couldn't stay healthy the prior seasons. If he puts in 140+ games again this year, his market will be much larger. You also need to consider the other teams starting to emerge from their hibernation. The White Sox were in on offense heavily this offseason, and my guess is they will be again this offseason as the Guardians start to fall and no team rises up. That is a large market club with big pockets and would be a soft landing spot for JD. I don't see any other AL East squads looking at him unless the Yanks go addition by subtraction and push Stanton to LF permanently. I doubt the Guardians, Twins, or Tigers go for him. The AL West is always messy and with Ohtani being a strict DH, makes it less likely that Martinez would go out there. If Texas thinks it can jump start it's rebuild, it might go that route or Houston could jump in for instant offense. I doubt most NL teams would go for him unless he converts to 1b. Either way, all teams could use him. The question is, is there a market? I think there will be, especially with a bat like Arenado off the market

 

 

So you’re saying JD absolutely positively opts out and accepts an offer with a lower AAV?

 

You seem to have omitted one team from the possible candidates - the Red Sox. They’ll need a DH and will suddenly have an extra $20mill AAV to spend. Getting him back for 4/$75 only helps the Red Sox financial situation...

[moonslav59]

Papi played the long game with Boston and is a cultural icon here. JD is a mercenary and will never reach that status. Mercenaries go to the highest bidder.

 

My point was about the value of a DH not an icon.

 

Name another DH who made $20M over multiple years.

[jacksonianmarch]

My point was about the value of a DH not an icon.

 

Name another DH who made $20M over multiple years.

 

Edwin Encarnacion, and he signed his with his first year being age 34

[notin]

Edwin Encarnacion, and he signed his with his first year being age 34

 

 

But only for 3 years (plus an option). And it only reaches a $20mill AAV if the option is bought out. And in that case, only one year exceeds $20mill.

 

And it was before a lot of the fear of free agents over 30...

Edited March 13, 2019 by notin

[Slasher9]

Easy to blame him. How much easier is the decision if he had a closer? Does Pedro fight the decision if he trusts the guy following him? We don't know, but, we do know they didn't have a true closer.......

 

lol. pedro never fought any decision. in fact pedro is on record saying he was f***ing shocked he wasnt yanked in that game.

but what is your point? we should have brought back kimbrell this year? we offered him a QO. he turned it down. what do you want to offer him? you like to bring up postseason samples...how did the leprechaun look last postseason? i would say that we had a parade in spite of CK......what would you say?

[Kimmi]

The solution for me is not to get attached to any player. Sure, there are some I like, but I understand the business. I understand loyalty is not a given once there's bigger money to be made elsewhere. I will probably never buy another player jersey, unless it's a retired player. I'll just buy stuff with the team logo, because at the end of the day the team is the only constant, and the only thing that matters.

 

That is my problem - I get too attached to the Sox players, especially the home grown ones.

 

But I'm still not paying Mookie a Harper like contract.

 

I'd find a way to bring Varitek and Millar back though.

[SCM33]

lol. pedro never fought any decision. in fact pedro is on record saying he was f***ing shocked he wasnt yanked in that game.

but what is your point? we should have brought back kimbrell this year? we offered him a QO. he turned it down. what do you want to offer him? you like to bring up postseason samples...how did the leprechaun look last postseason? i would say that we had a parade in spite of CK......what would you say?

 

My recollection of this is different than yours. My recollection is that Pedro did not want to come out, and Grady didn't want to override Pedro's wishes.

 

Not sure what got lost in the messages, but no, I did not want Kimbrell back, but I also wanted a better option than "bullpen by committee".

[moonslav59]

Edwin Encarnacion, and he signed his with his first year being age 34

 

He played way more 1B than Papi did.

 

The year before he signed his big deal, he played 75 games at 1B and 86 at DH. Papi never did that with the Sox.

 

The most he played at 1B with the Sox was way back in 2003 (45 games).

[mvp 78]

My recollection of this is different than yours. My recollection is that Pedro did not want to come out, and Grady didn't want to override Pedro's wishes.

 

Not sure what got lost in the messages, but no, I did not want Kimbrell back, but I also wanted a better option than "bullpen by committee".

Pedro says now that he thought he was done before the inning even started.

[cp176]

My point was about the value of a DH not an icon.

 

Name another DH who made $20M over multiple years.

 

How many games did JD play in the outfield last year? I doubt that changes mush this year. He is not a full-time dh by any means. Don't be putting him out to pasture just yet.

[jacksonianmarch]

He played way more 1B than Papi did.

 

The year before he signed his big deal, he played 75 games at 1B and 86 at DH. Papi never did that with the Sox.

 

The most he played at 1B with the Sox was way back in 2003 (45 games).

 

And JD played more field than Papi did. Listen, JD is a DH who can fake it in the OF. He’s also a hitter of Papi’s caliber in a time when guys who hit for power, don’t hit for average. He will outearn the final three years of his contract on the open market if he finishes 2019 healthy and has a year akin to his prior two. I’m not saying he’ll beat the AAV, but he will get a bigger guarantee than the approx $62 mil left on his deal. That’s an important thing for him as we’re talking about his age 36 season and he’s likely to not get a big contract if he hits FA at that age. I said before that if JD lots out, I’d expect a 4 yr $75 mil contract for him

[Bellhorn04]

I said before that if JD lots out, I’d expect a 4 yr $75 mil contract for him

 

It's questionable strategy to opt out when the potential gain is that small.

[notin]

It's questionable strategy to opt out when the potential gain is that small.

 

And even sillier to think that Dombrowski would bow out in that case. If Martinez wants to opt out and reduce his AAV, how exactly is that a hindrance to Boston?

[Slasher9]

It's questionable strategy to opt out when the potential gain is that small.

 

the old bird in the hand.....

[notin]

the old bird in the hand.....

 

 

 

... can be very messy.

 

 

(That adage needed a realistic update.)

[Bellhorn04]

Bird...hand...bush...the dirty jokes kind of write themselves.