What would a Betts extension be?

[Bellhorn04]

That wasn’t an option...

 

It was in the chat.

[notin]

It was in the chat.

 

Are we in the chat now?

[Bellhorn04]

Are we in the chat now?

 

I exercised my option to use the lower number they estimated.

 

I think 10/392 is too much. It's a quantum leap from the Machado & Harper deals.

 

Bogey is undoubtedly a goner in any case.

[Hugh2]

It's kind of crazy to think a hometown discount at this point might be 10/300. But with the uncertainty free agency has provided the last few years I wonder if Mookie would bite if the front office came to him with that deal.

[notin]

It's kind of crazy to think a hometown discount at this point might be 10/300. But with the uncertainty free agency has provided the last few years I wonder if Mookie would bite if the front office came to him with that deal.

 

 

I do wonder if he actually tops Machado. Betts will have the disadvantage of being 2 years older when he hits free agency...

[moonslav59]

I do wonder if he actually tops Machado. Betts will have the disadvantage of being 2 years older when he hits free agency...

 

A lot depends on how well he does the next two years and what the salary trend is doing.

[jacksonianmarch]

One of the guys at MLBTR tried to quantify a Betts extension. He thought $35 mil a year for 8 years at FA will likely be his cost. So 8 years, $280 mil and then consider $20 mil this year and $30 mil next. So if the Sox want to just keep him right now, it’s a 10 year $330 mil deal

[harmony]

$24M x 9. I'd say a tough no, but it's not an easy call on what DD & Henry might do.

Over the past three seasons Xander Bogaerts has posted 12.8 fWAR in 441 games while shortstop Jean Segura has posted 11.8 fWAR in 422 games over the same period.

 

Segura signed a five-year, $70 million extension that started with his final arbitration season in 2018.

 

In his first season in 2020 as a likely free agent Bogaerts will be only six months younger than Segura was when the latter started his extension.

 

Bogaerts will be a free agent with no final arbitration season to buy out, but nine years and $216 million seems a bit high for Bogaerts.

 

Or not.

[dgalehouse]

I would think that part of the owners foot dragging strategy this off season is to try and coerce future free agents to sign extensions proposed by the club . Don't think it will work with Mookie.

[Bellhorn04]

I would think that part of the owners foot dragging strategy this off season is to try and coerce future free agents to sign extensions proposed by the club . Don't think it will work with Mookie.

 

Arenado signed a nice hefty extension with the Rockies.

[dgalehouse]

Arenado signed a nice hefty extension with the Rockies.

 

That's right . Will it work with Mookie ? Trout ?

[notin]

That's right . Will it work with Mookie ? Trout ?

 

The Arenado extension works heavily against the Sox for Mookie. Arenado has been worth 25.3 fWAR in the past 5 seasons. Betts has been worth 24.9 in the last 3....

[moonslav59]

Over the past three seasons Xander Bogaerts has posted 12.8 fWAR in 441 games while shortstop Jean Segura has posted 11.8 fWAR in 422 games over the same period.

 

Segura signed a five-year, $70 million extension that started with his final arbitration season in 2018.

 

In his first season in 2020 as a likely free agent Bogaerts will be only six months younger than Segura was when the latter started his extension.

 

Bogaerts will be a free agent with no final arbitration season to buy out, but nine years and $216 million seems a bit high for Bogaerts.

 

Or not.

 

Segura seems to have peaked early (2-3 years ago) while Bogey seems to be improving.

 

Or not.

[dgalehouse]

The Arenado extension works heavily against the Sox for Mookie. Arenado has been worth 25.3 fWAR in the past 5 seasons. Betts has been worth 24.9 in the last 3....

 

I think there is a general feeling that Arenado is a Coors Field hitter . Not a lot of concern that Mookie is a Fenway hitter . Mookie would have a greater appeal . The thing is , how many teams would be willing to spend that kind of money ? Not too many . That is probably the best thing that the Sox have going for them .

[BillyWilliams]

I think there is a general feeling that Arenado is a Coors Field hitter . Not a lot of concern that Mookie is a Fenway hitter . Mookie would have a greater appeal . The thing is , how many teams would be willing to spend that kind of money ? Not too many . That is probably the best thing that the Sox have going for them .

 

More than you think given today's TV contracts. We just watched San Diego shell out $300M, I think that says all you need to know. Not to mention it only takes one or two other teams to create a bidding war.

[harmony]

Segura seems to have peaked early (2-3 years ago) while Bogey seems to be improving.

 

Or not.

Over the past four years Xander Bogaerts has posted fWAR of 4.6, 4.8, 3.2 and 4.9 with Steamer and ZiPS projecting 2019 WAR of 4.1:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12161&position=SS

[Kimmi]

I’m the same chat, they place Mookie at 10/$350mill to 10/$392mill.

 

Bogaerts at $24mill AAV or Betts at $39mill AAV?

 

For the number of years suggested, hard pass on both.

[Kimmi]

That's right . Will it work with Mookie ? Trout ?

 

I honestly don't think Mookie is interested in giving the team any kind of a discount. That's my impression, anyway.

[mvp 78]

I honestly don't think Mookie is interested in giving the team any kind of a discount. That's my impression, anyway.

 

He shouldn't be expected to give the team a discount.

[Station 13]

I honestly don't think Mookie is interested in giving the team any kind of a discount. That's my impression, anyway.

 

He has taken them to the cleaners via arbitration and shot down extension offers twice already.

[Kimmi]

He shouldn't be expected to give the team a discount.

 

He doesn't have to give the team anything, but it would be nice if he had more of a Brock Holt attitude.

 

As I've said many times before, it's always nice when players make it about more than just the money.

 

As I've also said before, what can a player to with $330 million that he can't do with $300 million?

[Kimmi]

He has taken them to the cleaners via arbitration and shot down extension offers twice already.

 

Exactly. Plus, his keen interest in what Machado and Harper got this offseason.

[moonslav59]

...what can a player to with $330 million that he can't do with $300 million?

 

Leave $5M to 6 more relatives in his will?

 

Give $6M to 5 more charities.

 

Pay his taxes with it.

 

Give it to a political action committee.

[dgalehouse]

...what can a player to with $330 million that he can't do with $300 million?

 

Leave $5M to 6 more relatives in his will?

 

Give $6M to 5 more charities.

 

Pay his taxes with it.

 

Give it to a political action committee.

 

If he left it to relatives , he would be a good family man . If he gave it to charity , he would be kind and generous . If he paid his taxes with it , he would be smart and sensible . If he gave it to a political action committee , he would be nuts .

[notin]

 

As I've also said before, what can a player to with $330 million that he can't do with $300 million?

 

Brag about being paid $330million...

[SCM33]

I honestly don't think Mookie is interested in giving the team any kind of a discount. That's my impression, anyway.

 

He wont. There have been many opportunities to come up with a long term resolution. He is interested in getting paid.

[moonslav59]

I could see the Yanks offering him $350M/10, but him taking $335M/10 from the Sox, of something like that.

[SCM33]

I could see the Yanks offering him $350M/10, but him taking $335M/10 from the Sox, of something like that.

 

The question isn't about what we, or other teams would offer. The question is, is he worth it for us to sign him? He has literally never given ANY indication that he enjoys being here or that he wants to be here.

 

What happens when he gets the money? Is that investment worth it, if he isn't invested in us? What if he is only invested in himself at 35M per year for 10 years? We have the money, no question....we are already far and above every other MLB team in terms of salary........at some point though, there becomes a cost/production variable. What happens if he signs an outrageous deal like Harper and doesn't produce? Are you ok with the Sox being middle of the pack while absorbing his albatross contract along with all the other "high" priced contracts, knowing that ownership wont spend any more money because of a potentially terrible contract?

 

Just something to think about.

[moonslav59]

The question isn't about what we, or other teams would offer. The question is, is he worth it for us to sign him? He has literally never given ANY indication that he enjoys being here or that he wants to be here.

 

What happens when he gets the money? Is that investment worth it, if he isn't invested in us? What if he is only invested in himself at 35M per year for 10 years? We have the money, no question....we are already far and above every other MLB team in terms of salary........at some point though, there becomes a cost/production variable. What happens if he signs an outrageous deal like Harper and doesn't produce? Are you ok with the Sox being middle of the pack while absorbing his albatross contract along with all the other "high" priced contracts, knowing that ownership wont spend any more money because of a potentially terrible contract?

 

Just something to think about.

 

I think about it.

 

I think there is no player I have ever seen as good as Betts, except maybe Clemente.

 

He's got two more years to go, but I'd sign him to $335M/10 based on what I know now.

[SCM33]

I think about it.

 

I think there is no player I have ever seen as good as Betts, except maybe Clemente.

 

He's got two more years to go, but I'd sign him to $335M/10 based on what I know now.

 

I don't want to attack you, but no player is worth that money. I think we are overrating him a little, due to the fact he is a home grown talent.

 

Something to think about, his postseason numbers are poor. Why can't we sign a player 75% of his season output, win 6/7 games less a year, but maybe perform better in the playoffs due to the fact that Betts almost contributes nothing in the postseason?

 

The Patriots apply this mentality every year, and win every year. At some point, the dollar value outweighs the output value for a position. All factors need to be considered.