Francisco Cervelli

[notin]

Well, if we still had Tony Pena, we certainly wouldn't need Cervelli. Poor Sandy Leon... he gets no respect.

 

I love Vasquez and Leon... no upgrade needed.

 

The strategy here might be to upgrade the catcher position to offset an anticipated drop in the bullpen. Replacing Kimbrel and Kelly might be the right move, but that doesn’t mean whoever steps I i is going to be as effective immediately. And if they aren’t,the team gets worse overall.

 

Vazquez is a good defensive catcher whose minor league offense hasn’t translated to major league success. In this respect, he is really nothing special and has also had difficulty staying healthy. I can see why they might want to upgrade here.

 

By it might not happen for financial reasons if DD brings back Eovaldi. Perhaps that was the downgrade he was anticipating as well...

[moonslav59]

The strategy here might be to upgrade the catcher position to offset an anticipated drop in the bullpen. Replacing Kimbrel and Kelly might be the right move, but that doesn’t mean whoever steps I i is going to be as effective immediately. And if they aren’t,the team gets worse overall.

 

Vazquez is a good defensive catcher whose minor league offense hasn’t translated to major league success. In this respect, he is really nothing special and has also had difficulty staying healthy. I can see why they might want to upgrade here.

 

By it might not happen for financial reasons if DD brings back Eovaldi. Perhaps that was the downgrade he was anticipating as well...

 

If they do decide to upgrade at catcher, I just don't see us paying that money for Cervelli, even if you minus Vaz's contract. I'm not sure Pitt wants to pay any of his salary.

 

He does have a good rep as being sharp with pitchers, and his past staffs have liked working with him. To me, that is essential in any move we make for a new catcher.

 

Your point is valid. If we look to upgrade somewhere else, knowing we are downgrading our pen or rotation, catcher offense jumps out at us. The other position is 2B, but I see that as a wait and see position with Pedey, Holt and Nunez all looking to do well enough to make that slot a push or better. I just can't see us throwing more money at 2B. Pedey, Nunez and Holt rate to make about $24M between the 3 of them.

 

We may just try to go more quantity over quality with our staff acquisitions and keep the contracts shorter and more conducive to a re-set of the tax down the road.

 

[OH FOY]

I hope DD is not investing his energy this Off-Season in the Catchers Position.

[moonslav59]

I hope DD is not investing his energy this Off-Season in the Catchers Position.

 

It might be a fall back option, if he fails to land his first choices.

[Bellhorn04]

I hope DD is not investing his energy this Off-Season in the Catchers Position.

 

I'm sure he's not totally fixated on it.

[mvp 78]

They won 108 games with 3 catchers on the roster, maybe they can win 120 games with 4 catchers on the roster.

[notin]

They won 108 games with 3 catchers on the roster, maybe they can win 120 games with 4 catchers on the roster.

 

If they bring in another catcher, it’s a safe bet at least one of the current catchers will go.

 

Swihart is already at risk for a roster spot even if the Sox make no more moves for position players...

[notin]

I'm sure he's not totally fixated on it.

 

I hope not. I would imagine it’s one of several plans he has...

[Dojji]

Eovaldi + 2 relievers.

 

Not saying it can't happen, but the team is ALREADY over the first tax threshold. Cervelli's salary of 10.33 million would also entail tax of 30% or 3 million, plus there are all the other penalties that kick in. It would be an expensive transaction. You also give up a prospect.

 

The Church of Saint Eovaldi needs to slow its roll IMHO. He had a good half year with us and was fantastic in the postseason but look at the dude's overall track record before saying we NEED to bring him back. This guy screams "regression to the mean" out of every number on the stat sheet.

 

You can't sign a guy based on half a year where he played out of his mind. you have to look at the whole body of work. And the overall body of work from Eovaldi is not all that good. He has shown neither great reliability nor great durability over his career, and I haven't heard of anything to suggest he's actually made major changes in Boston such that the old stats should be disregarded.

 

If we sign Eovaldi we stand a much better than normal odds of regretting it by the end of the contract.

 

I remain much higher on Dallas Keuchel than Nate Eovaldi. I suspect the two will cost about the same and given the choice, I sign Keuchel.

[Bellhorn04]

The Church of Saint Eovaldi needs to slow its roll IMHO. He had a good half year with us and was fantastic in the postseason but look at the dude's overall track record before saying we NEED to bring him back. This guy screams "regression to the mean" out of every number on the stat sheet.

 

You can't sign a guy based on half a year where he played out of his mind. you have to look at the whole body of work. And the overall body of work from Eovaldi is not all that good. He has shown neither great reliability nor great durability over his career, and I haven't heard of anything to suggest he's actually made major changes in Boston such that the old stats should be disregarded.

 

If we sign Eovaldi we stand a much better than normal odds of regretting it by the end of the contract.

 

I remain much higher on Dallas Keuchel than Nate Eovaldi. I suspect the two will cost about the same and given the choice, I sign Keuchel.

 

Sorry Dojji. Eovaldi it is.

[OH FOY]

Now DD, can use all his resources on Cervelli.

[radatz17]

Foy,

 

Not sure that I can agree with your thoughts on adding Cervelli. Too expensive and older for a guy who is not appreciably better than any of the three present Sox catchers.

[kenmeister]

Eovaldi loves throwing to Sandy Leon. I can't see making a catching change now.

[moonslav59]

The Church of Saint Eovaldi needs to slow its roll IMHO. He had a good half year with us and was fantastic in the postseason but look at the dude's overall track record before saying we NEED to bring him back. This guy screams "regression to the mean" out of every number on the stat sheet.

 

You can't sign a guy based on half a year where he played out of his mind. you have to look at the whole body of work. And the overall body of work from Eovaldi is not all that good. He has shown neither great reliability nor great durability over his career, and I haven't heard of anything to suggest he's actually made major changes in Boston such that the old stats should be disregarded.

 

If we sign Eovaldi we stand a much better than normal odds of regretting it by the end of the contract.

 

I remain much higher on Dallas Keuchel than Nate Eovaldi. I suspect the two will cost about the same and given the choice, I sign Keuchel.

 

I share your deep concerns, and it was actually a much smaller sample size with him playing "out of his mind."

 

He wasn't bad, by any means, before the playoffs, but out of 12 games with us, he had 5 so-so to bad outings

 

2.2 IP 10H 4 ER 2 BB (4 unearned runs)

 

5.1 IP 10H 4 ER 1 BB

 

4.0 IP 8H 5 ER 0 BB

 

2.0 IP 3H 3 ER 0BB

 

3.2 IP 3H 2 ER 2 BB

 

The hope is, he gets consistent and durable- something he's never been. That's a big risk, but it feels good having him back for 2019.

 

[kenmeister]

I share your deep concerns, and it was actually a much smaller sample size with him playing "out of his mind."

 

He wasn't bad, by any means, before the playoffs, but out of 12 games with us, he had 5 so-so to bad outings

 

2.2 IP 10H 4 ER 2 BB (4 unearned runs)

 

5.1 IP 10H 4 ER 1 BB

 

4.0 IP 8H 5 ER 0 BB

 

2.0 IP 3H 3 ER 0BB

 

3.2 IP 3H 2 ER 2 BB

 

The hope is, he gets consistent and durable- something he's never been. That's a big risk, but it feels good having him back for 2019.

 

 

Those last two seem to be Cora's signature "quick hook". Giving up a couple runs early on and then settling down is pretty common for a starting pitcher.

[moonslav59]

Eovaldi loves throwing to Sandy Leon. I can't see making a catching change now.

 

He actually did better with Vaz, and Vaz caught him a lot in the playoffs, when he did the best he ever has done.

 

REG Season:

 

0.55 ERA with Vaz (16.1 IP)

 

3.86 ERA with Leon (35 IP)

 

6.16 ERA w Wilson Ramos (38 IP)

 

Game 3 vs NYY with Vaz

7 IP 5 H 1 ER 0BB

 

Game 3 vs HOU w Vaz

6 IP 6H 2ER 2 BB

 

Game 5 vs HOU w VAZ (in relief)

1.1 IP 0H 0ER 1BB

 

Game 1 vs LAD w Leon in relief

1 IP 0H 0ER 0BB

 

Game 2 vs LAD w Vaz in relief

1 IP 0H 0ER 0BB

 

Game 3 vs LAD w Leon in relief of 18 inning game

6IP 1 ER 3H 1BB ( 1 unearned run)

 

He did very well with both catchers in the playoffs, but he pitched more with Vaz (15.1 IP 3 ER with Vaz and 7 IP 1 ER with Leon).

 

Edited December 6, 2018 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Those last two seem to be Cora's signature "quick hook". Giving up a couple runs early on and then settling down is pretty common for a starting pitcher.

 

One of those last two was in relief.

[notin]

I hope DD is not investing his energy this Off-Season in the Catchers Position.

 

Maybe being ranked 30 out of 30 in fWAR at the position gave him some reason? Not to mention the 1.7 fWAR the Sox trailed the 29th ranked Diamondbacks (who have already acquired a catcher) by was the largest gap between any two adjacently ranked teams and by a lot - over 1.0 fWAR more than the next highest gap.

 

I can see why he might be a bit eager to upgrade the position. But can he do it within whatever budget constraints he has is another question...

[moonslav59]

Maybe being ranked 30 out of 30 in fWAR at the position gave him some reason? Not to mention the 1.7 fWAR the Sox trailed the 29th ranked Diamondbacks (who have already acquired a catcher) by was the largest gap between any two adjacently ranked teams and by a lot - over 1.0 fWAR more than the next highest gap.

 

I can see why he might be a bit eager to upgrade the position. But can he do it within whatever budget constraints he has is another question...

 

...or without affecting all the intangibles Leon & Vaz give our staff.

[Bellhorn04]

...or without affecting all the intangibles Leon & Vaz give our staff.

 

Which can't possibly be measured by fWAR.

[Bellhorn04]

REG Season:

 

0.55 ERA with Vaz (16.1 IP)

 

3.86 ERA with Leon (35 IP)

 

6.16 ERA w Wilson Ramos (38 IP)

 

0.47 ERA w Sugar Jesus (19 IP)

[moonslav59]

Which can't possibly be measured by fWAR.

 

Exactly. Now, I'm not saying Leon and Vaz are the only catchers in MLb with these skills, but any new catcher would create a learning curve of an unknown amount of time, even ones known to be great in these areas.

[notin]

...or without affecting all the intangibles Leon & Vaz give our staff.

 

It is possible Dombrowski is aware of said intangibles or they simply don’t exist to the extent some of us think.

 

I get it. No one wants to touch Vazquez and Leon. But I’m not so sure DD feels that way. Or at the very least, he is keeping the option open...

[notin]

Exactly. Now, I'm not saying Leon and Vaz are the only catchers in MLb with these skills, but any new catcher would create a learning curve of an unknown amount of time, even ones known to be great in these areas.

 

Maybe. But every pitcher on the Sox staff has worked with other catchers at some point and still performed well enough that the Sox sought them out to acquire them...

[Bellhorn04]

It is possible Dombrowski is aware of said intangibles or they simply don’t exist to the extent some of us think.

 

I get it. No one wants to touch Vazquez and Leon. But I’m not so sure DD feels that way. Or at the very least, he is keeping the option open...

 

For me it's not so much about not touching Vazquez and Leon. It's just that Cervelli is an expensive option and only for one year. Do we really need an offensive upgrade at catcher this year that badly?

[moonslav59]

It is possible Dombrowski is aware of said intangibles or they simply don’t exist to the extent some of us think.

 

I get it. No one wants to touch Vazquez and Leon. But I’m not so sure DD feels that way. Or at the very least, he is keeping the option open...

 

I understand. He may also think Cervelli or someone esle is as good or better than Vaz or Leon in those areas I promote so much.

 

He certainly knows more about opposing catchers than I do (and our own, too!)

[moonslav59]

Maybe. But every pitcher on the Sox staff has worked with other catchers at some point and still performed well enough that the Sox sought them out to acquire them...

 

True, but there are a few pitchers with stark differentials, especially with Swihart and his small sample sizes.

 

Sale

2.42 w Leon (319)

3.40 w Vaz (53 IP)

O IP with Swihart (very telling.)

(3.02 with Flowers in 552 IP/ 2.51 w AJP in 226/ 3.53 w Avila in 112)

 

Price

2.83 w Leon (194 IP)

4.32 w Vaz (263)

5.72 w Swihart (11)

(2.85 w Molina 473/3.06 w Jaso 191)

 

Porcello

4.14 w Leon in 483

4.15 w Vaz in 134

4.59 w Swihart in 118

(4.17 w Avila in 578/ 4.32 w Laird in 296)

 

ERod is about even

4.00 w Leon in 99

4.08 w Swihart in 71

4.24 w Vaz in 276

 

Eovalid's sample sizes are small, but he did better with Vaz.

 

If you look at just Sale and Price, one could argue keeping Leon is the right choice, and trading Vaz could work, if the new guy (like Cervelli) can work with Porcello, Eovaldi and ERod. Since ERod doesn't seem to be affected by who catches him, and Eovaldi is kind of new anyways, and Porcello might be gone after next year, maybe trading Vaz and getting a better hitting catcher makes more sense than I first thought.

 

[SoxnCycles]

For me it's not so much about not touching Vazquez and Leon. It's just that Cervelli is an expensive option and only for one year. Do we really need an offensive upgrade at catcher this year that badly?

 

Nope.

[Nick]

Vazquez caught more during the playoffs, no? Cora will not DIE with Leon regardless of what the pitchers think. You don't let the players run the team. If Vazquez is so horrible, what does it say about baseball operations people that extended his contract?

[cp176]

Vazquez caught more during the playoffs, no? Cora will not DIE with Leon regardless of what the pitchers think. You don't let the players run the team. If Vazquez is so horrible, what does it say about baseball operations people that extended his contract?

 

I don't think or at least hope that people aren't saying that either one of our catchers is horrible - they just aren't going to give us much offense. With Vazquez improving as the year went along, I think that together they did an excellent job at what they are paid to do which is catch not hit. You never know what will happen out there but I would think that actively looking to upgrade the catching position is a low priority. Maybe once he gets the bullpen stuff ironed out DD will get bored and go to work looking to upgrade there as well.